Head to Head: Handicapping the Fountain of Youth Stakes

Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

It's round two on the Kentucky Derby trail at Gulfstream Park, and 11 3-year-olds have entered to contest Saturday's Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes in hopes that they can propel themselves toward Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

Before getting into the handicapping, note...

Track bias
Gulfstream notably favors speed, especially in this race at 1 1/16 miles. Over the last 16 years, seven Fountain of Youth winners wired the field, four were pace pressers, three were closers, and the rest settled mid-pack early. Posts eight and higher almost guarantee a wide trip around the first turn, although last year, Promises Fulfilled took it to them early from post nine and never looked back. 

Race history
: Eight of the last 10 Fountain of Youth winners tuned up for in a prep race at Gulfstream Park. Only two, Union Rags and Promises Fulfilled, made their 3-year-old debut in the Grade 2 event. Three of the last 10 winners didn’t capture their previous start, and none finished worse than third in their last start before improving to win the Fountain of Youth.
 

 
Laurie

 
Ashley
 

Code of Honor — Shug McGaughey tightened the screws on Code of Honor’s training regimen after the colt’s fourth-place finish in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, capped by a 49.60-second four furlongs at Payson Park. He was eager to get into the bridle but settled into a long, flowing stride, quickening up just before the wire and carrying his speed into the turn. We should see a stronger, more prepared colt this time around. Although the son of Noble Mission doesn’t need the lead, the rail post is a prime spot, winning at 19%.  Exotics.

Code of Honor — This handsome son of Noble Mission was the beaten favorite in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes off a bit of a layoff. I like the rail draw, and if John Velazquez can gun him out of the gate and get a good position on or near the lead, Code of Honor can get his picture taken. Contender.

Epic Dreamer — Kelly Breen’s charge had every chance in the Holy Bull. He was un-pressured early over a speed-favoring track and wasn’t asked for run until the 1/8 pole.  Epic Dreamer got a little leg weary in the stretch and looked like he needed the start. He returned with a bullet five-furlong drill at Palm Meadows, which is a plus. The son of Orb should show improvement off the layoff and may be winging it on the front end again, although there’s other speed in the race. His late-pace speed figures aren’t all that, but Epic Dreamer could hold on for a piece. Note that his sire won the 2013 edition of the Fountain of Youth. Exotics.

 

Epic Dreamer — Trained by Kelly Breen, Epic Dreamer tried  to take the field gate-to-wire in the Holy Bull but just could not hold off the top three finishers. Hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione picks up the mount from Irad Ortiz, and maybe he can nurse this colt’s speed a bit more. Could be a good play underneath.

Gladiator King – Once again, Jamie Mejia’s charge is the “why?” horse of the field. Will he have a quick turnaround from his third-place finish in last week’s Texas Glitter or will he scratch? Looks like a turf horse. Pass.

 

Gladiator King — Mejia does seem to live by the “run them rather than work them” philosophy. Whether he goes postward, you can toss Gladiator King, as he was reluctant to load and well beaten in the Holy Bull (G2) two starts back.

Bourbon War — He’s back! In his 3-year-old debut, the well-bred son of Tapit settled off the pace in a 1 1/6-mile optional claimer, slid between the pacesetters at the top of the stretch and went on from there, beating Cutting Humor by 2 1/4 lengths and Everfast by a dozen lengths. The presence of leading jockey  Irad Ortiz, Jr. could drop his price. Contender.
 

Bourbon War — Bourbon War dove through traffic to win an optional claimer here at Gulfstream last month. His speed figures fit with the best in this field, and Ortiz won this race last year. Could still offer some value with more buzzy horses in this race.

Vekoma — He’s beaten some decent horses, including Swale Stakes (G3) winner Call Paul and Mucho Macho Man Stakes winner Mihos. Vekoma gets first time Lasix, which can help with performance. Vekoma tuned up with a 1:00.73 pre-race breeze at Palm Meadows. He settled early off the flank of the older graded stakes winner Breaking Lucky, headed his rival, then drew clear in the stretch with slight encouragement. He was asked to continue around the turn and did so willingly. All systems seem to be a go for Vekoma’s season debut. Contender.

Vekoma — Trained by George Weaver, this colt is undefeated in two career starts, including a win in the Nashua (G3), and will be running with Lasix for the very first time on Saturday. He’s been training well but may need this race as a sharpener because he has not raced in three months. He sports the second-highest speed figure in the field, but I’m having a tough time getting past the layoff, and this is a two-turn debut. Exotics.

Signalman — The Ken McPeek charge kept elite company last year, finishing just 3 1/4 lengths behind champoin Game Winner in the Breeders' Cup. Signalman returned with a desperate neck victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), but how strong was that race? The contenders who finished behind Signalman have largely disappointed since. Signalman didn’t look fully extended in his final pre-race breeze, but Holy Bull winner Harvey Wallbanger was slightly urged after the wire. No doubt that Signalman is a talented colt. However, his work tab is meh, and  Signalman is a large-bodied horse. I think that he may need the start. Exotics.
 

Signalman — After placing in two Grade 1 races at double-digit odds, this son of General Quarters got his picture taken after winning in the mud in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Like Vekoma, however, Signalman is making his 2019 debut off a three month layoff. I don't see him in the win spot. Exotics.

Hidden Scroll — Quick, who was the last horse to win the Fountain of Youth in his second start? Corn off the Cob, who placed in the Flamingo Stakes in his debut and won the Fountain of Youth second time out, way back in 1970. Going one better, Authorize won the Fountain of Youth in his first start, a year later. Fast forward to the present. Hidden Scroll is another “wow” horse in the Bill Mott barn. The son of Hard Spun toyed with his rivals in his mile debut, setting quick fractions over a sloppy track. So, will we see another spectacular move from Hidden Scroll in the Fountain of Youth? Only he knows for sure. Exotics.
 

Hidden Scroll — This could be another Juddmonte star in the making. Under mild urging, this colt broke his maiden in the slop, drawing away to win the mile event by 14 lengths with a final time of 1:34.80. Trainer Bill Mott would not have him in this spot if he did not think Hidden Scroll was ready and had a real shot. Odds will likely be short, but it is hard to ignore the brilliance shown in his last start.

Global Campaign — The well-bred son of Curlin gets a class test after capturing his first two starts by a combined eight lengths. He had a leg-stretching pre-race five furlong breeze at Palm Meadows, working with a lathered up He Hate Me. Global Campaign sat a couple of lengths back at the start, then moved within a neck of He Hate Me, rating just off his rival. They finished up evenly at the wire, but Global Campaign looked comfortable traveling alongside his workmate, without showing keenness to pass. This could set him up to sit farther back than previously, which will help with his outside post. Contender.

Global Campaign — Undefeated in two starts, Global Campaign will get his first taste of stakes action while trying to stay perfect. Additionally, both of those starts were on this track. He was clearly best in those two races and will have to continue to bring his “A” game. The post is to his disadvantage at this distance, but good horses overcome adversity.

Everfast — This late bloomer is primed for another step forward in his third start off the layoff. He showed improvement in the Holy Bull when finishing a late-running second, beaten only a length by Harvey Wallbanger. Chris Landeros gave the son of Take Charge Indy an excellent ride and returns. The only drawback is that Everfast seems to need time to get going, and his late pace speed figures are average. Exotics.
 

Everfast — Saddled by Dale Romans, Everfast proved fast enough to snag second in the Holy Bull at astronomical odds. Did he finally figure out this whole racing game, or was it just a fluke? Considering his previous finishes in graded stakes company, I am willing to bet the Holy Bull was a one-off. Pass.

Frosted Grace — From sire Mark Valeski's first crop, he drew a tough post for his pace-setting running style. He should show improvement in his third start off the layoff but ran out of oats in the shorter Swale Stakes. I’m not convinced that he wants two turns, at least, not at this stage of his career.  Pass.
 

Frosted Grace — From the same connections as Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Mucho Macho Man comes Frosted Grace. He broke his maiden sprinting and then was a solid second going a mile. However, he could only manage second in the Swale, and he raced greenly towards the end. I’ll pass.

Union's Destiny —  Juan Avila’s charge passed a tired horse in the Smooth Air Stakes to grab the show spot in his last start of 2018. Obviously, the outside post is a hindrance, although Union’s Destiny doesn’t have to go early to secure the lead. He’s shown speed figure improvement in each start and capped off his Fountain of Youth preps with a bullet five-furlong breeze. Might be a nice longshot to flush out the exotics.

Union’s Destiny — A local runner, Union’s Destiny has never been off the board in three career starts. However, he’s from the barn of a smaller trainer, was beaten by weaker in his last start, and drew the far outside post. Pass.


Final Thoughts

Laurie:
It doesn’t look like we’ll see a speed duel or crazy early fractions in the Fountain of Youth. Epic Dreamer will probably do a replay of the Holy Bull, going to the front to see how long he’ll last. Global Campaign and/or Frosted Grace may pressure from the outside. Code of Honor will likely secure a spot right behind the leaders, with the rest sorting themselves out. 

Ashley: I have to disagree. I think we’ll see some early pace, except that Gulfstream does tend to play towards the speed. Code of Honor has a huge shot from the rail, but it will be hard to deny the talent of some of the others.

Selections

Laurie                                                    Ashley

#4 Bourbon War (10-1)                         #1 Code of Honor (6-1)

#7 Hidden Scroll (9-5)                           #7 Hidden Scroll (9-5)

#8 Global Campaign (10-1)                    #4 Bourbon War (10-1)

#1 Code of Honor (6-1)                         #5 Vekoma (7-2) 

Read More

C2 Racing Stable and Gary Barber issued the following statement Tuesday regarding the post-parade scratch of White Abarrio...
This week's Prospect Watch showcases young horses with elite bloodlines making their debuts and early career starts across...
While most attention was on the Breeders' Cup last week, several horses got their first wins in impressive...
This is the 17th and final installment of a weekly feature exclusive to Horse Racing Nation tracking the...
Owen Almighty , the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby winner who most recently placed third in the Perryville...