Ky. Derby prep Head to Head: Handicapping Tampa Bay Derby

Laurie

Ashley

1. Heartened (10-1)

Heartened knocked on the door in three maiden races and finally graduated in his last start at Tampa, a 4 1/2-length triumph after switching his running style from a closer to a pacesetter. The Todd Pletcher trainee’s Brisnet speed ratings improved in each start, topping out at 85. Most of Heartened’s competitors had multiple races under their girth, so the class of the field is suspect. Street Boss’s son is the first foal out of a winning daughter of Bernardini. Class in his distaff line skips to the third generation. Heartened worked four furlongs in 48.74 in his second-to-last breeze with the maiden Secret Crush. He initially settled off that one’s flank, but the pair moved as a team, not much separating them, in typical Pletcher fashion. However, Heartened was pulled up early in the gallop out while his mate continued on. This is a big step up, but Heartened finds a way to pick up a check. Exotics.

By Street Boss, Heartened has never been out of the trifecta in four career starts but earned his solo win in his last outing. Trainer Todd Pletcher tried the colt on turf and dirt with dirt ultimately being the winning surface. Jose Ortiz also changed up Heartened’s running style last out, sending him to the lead for a 4 1/2-length victory rather than having the colt make one sustained run like he had done in previous starts. Heartened earned a career and field-best 94 Equibase speed figure for his win, which is 4 points higher than No More Time received for his Sam F. Davis (G3) victory later on the same card. Jose Ortiz retains the mount for trainer Todd Pletcher. Exotics.

2. Everdoit (30-1)

Everdoit is a horse for course; his only in-the-money finishes have been at Tampa. He lost all hope when he took a right side-step and dropped Huber Villa-Gomez at the Sam F. Davis gate. The Kevin Rice trainee galloped with the field before heading back to the barn on his own. Everdoit breezed a second-to-last four-furlong bullet in 47.60 and routinely works fast at Tampa. Everdoit is by Gary D, a restricted stakes-winning son of Successful Appeal, out of the winning mare Jaggermama, a half-sister to Grade 2-placed War Fighter and restricted placed Jaggermonster, both placed in stakes at Tampa. The quality of Everdoit’s foes in the Tampa maiden and allowance contests was poor, as were his speed ratings, and he’ll need a lot of improvement to be competitive here. Pass.

By Gary D, Everdoit lost his rider in the Sam F. Davis (G3), so there’s no telling how he would have finished minus that debacle. Prior to that, he was sixth and last in the $150,000 Mucho Macho Man Stakes. I mentioned this prior to the Sam F. Davis (G3), but I feel like it bears repeating. Half of the Mucho Macho Man field ran poorly next out in the Holy Bull (G2) with only runner-up First World War winning the Kitten’s Joy (G3) on turf and No More Time winning the Sam F. Davis (G3) in their next starts. Trainer Kevin Rice still has not had a graded-stakes runner hit the board in the last five years per Race Lens. Jockey Antonio Gallardo will take the reins for the first time. Pass.

3. Give Me Liberty (30-1)

Give Me Liberty hopes to be freed from the maiden ranks in the Tampa Bay Derby. He hasn’t had much success at Oaklawn, finished a well-beaten second in both starts this year, once behind Rebel Stakes runner-up Common Defense. Constitution’s son is out of a multiple Grade 1-wining Chilean mare, The Dream, a daughter of Scat Daddy. She won from 6 to 10 furlongs on turf and dirt. The Robertino Diodoro trainee’s speed ratings improved in each start but would need a 10-point jump to be competitive. Pass.

By Constitution, cleverly named Give Me Liberty is still a maiden after three attempts. He finished eighth of 12 in his debut at Churchill Downs but finished second in both starts at Oaklawn park. His debut race has not produced any winners, but the winner of his second race, Common Defense, was runner-up in the Rebel (G2) after finishing fifth in the Southwest (G3). A couple others from that race hit the board in their next start. The winner from Give Me Liberty’s last race went on to finish fifth in the Rebel (G2) while another was a next-out winner. Pablo Morales picks up the mount for trainer Robertino Diodoro. Pass.

4. Good Money (15-1)

Good Money graduated at first asking here in January. One rival returned to hit the board. The Chad Brown trainee raced between horses in the stretch before pulling forward, which is a positive note. Good Money won by a length, completing 7 furlongs in 1:23.95, with a 13.15-second final furlong. He has high knee action and runs upright. According to Race Lens, Good Money is the only one of his half-siblings to win on dirt, although two placed in dirt sprints at Mountaineer. Good Magic’s son hails from the same distaff line as Champions Arcangelo and Rags to Riches; however, his second dam, Cascading, is the only stakes winner in the most recent two generations, and she won on Polytrack. Good Money breezed four furlongs in 49.4 seconds in company with maiden winner Tuscan Gold at Payson Park. The pair worked as a team without much separating them. Good Money’s 78 Brisnet rating must improve at least 10 points to vie for a top-three spot, but you have to respect the team of Brown-Ortiz. Exotics.

By Good Magic, Good Money was a debut winner for trainer Chad Brown over this very track. Many from that race have not made subsequent starts, so, so far, there have been no winners exit that race. Trainer Chad Brown is just 14 percent and a whopping 81 percent in the money with maiden winners making their second start in a graded stakes on dirt. Brown is also winless in that frame, 56 percent in the money, with sprint-to-route runners. Irad Ortiz Jr. replaces Sammy Camacho, so you have to give this colt a hard second look for exotics.

5. Domestic Product (8-5)

Domestic Product raced without blinkers in the Holy Bull (G3) and rewarded his connections with a game second-place finish. Tyler Gaffalione pushed Domestic Product along the rail on the far turn, then cut outside six-wide down the stretch. They put away the 2-year-old champ Fierceness and gained with every stride on eventual winner Hades but ran out of real estate three lengths from the wire. The Chad Brown trainee earned a career-best 98 speed rating and owns the highest late-pace figure in the field at 108. By fifth-ranked national sire Practical Joke, Domestic Product is the second foal out of the unraced Paynter mare Goods and Services. She's a half to the stakes-winning turf sprinter Kenda. Domestic Product had a pre-race 4-furlong work on March 2 in company with Risen Star (G2) hero Sierra Leone. Although Domestic Product stayed with his workmate, he stayed a neck to a half-length behind Sierra Leone. The pair finished up in 49.0 seconds. Contender.

By Practical Joke, Domestic Product is 1-for-4 lifetime for trainer Chad Brown. The colt was a distant seventh to multiple graded stakes winner Dornoch in the Remsen (G2) before improving to finish second in the Holy Bull (G3) last out. Only fifth-place finisher Dancing Groom has raced since the Holy Bull (G3), finishing fifth in the Fountain of Youth while the rest of the Holy Bull field skipped Gulfstream Park’s second Kentucky Derby prep. Domestic Product received a 92 Equibase speed figure for his Holy Bull (G3) effort. Tyler Gaffalione, who was aboard at Gulfstream, gets the return call for trainer Chad Brown. Contender.

6. Catire Vizcaya (30-1)

Catire Vizcaya lost his last two starts by a combined 60 1/2 lengths, seriously outrun from the start. The “Why?” horse of the Tampa Derby. Pass.

By Anchor Down, Catire Vizcaya is 1-for-4 lifetime for trainer Juan Carlos Avila. As Laurie stated, this colt has been seriously outclassed in his last two starts, including a 50-length drubbing in the $100,000 Rocky Run, contested in the mud at Delaware Park. That race was in October, and Catire Vizcaya didn’t race again until February 16 when he was fifth in an optional claimer here at Tampa Bay Downs. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila is 11 percent, 26 percent in the money, in graded stakes. Marcos Meneses has the call. Pass.

7. No More Time (7-5)

No More Time played catch me if you can in the Sam Davis (G3). They couldn’t, and he won by 1 1/4 lengths, completing 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.6 and traveling his final half-furlong in 6.67 seconds, earning a career-best 93 Brisnet speed rating. The Jose D'Angelo trainee’s only off-the-board finish was a fifth-place finish in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes when he was rank and hopped at the start. Not This Time’s son is out of the winning Speightstown mare Baroness Juliette. His second dam is a half-sister to the dam of recent Southwest Stakes (G3) hero Mystik Dan. No More Time breezed a pre-race bullet four furlongs in 47.40 at Palm Meadows. Contender.

By Not This Time, No More Time is the 2024 Sam F. Davis (G3) hero. Previously fifth in the $150,000 Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream, No More Time went back to his successful front-running style and took the grade 3 race gate-to-wire. He received career-high 94 Equibase speed figure. No More Time earned trainer Jose Francisco D’Angelo his first ever graded stakes victory and will be looking to double up here. Javier Castellano is taking over for Paco Lopez. Contender.

8. Crazy Mason

In the Sam Davis (G3), Crazy Mason passed tired horses to gain sixth place, 11 lengths behind No More Time. By multiple graded-winning sprinter-miler Coal Front, Crazy Mason is the first blacktype winner out of graded stakes-placed Maria’s Mon mare Izshelegal. The pretty gray colt is competitive against optional claimers and minor stakes types, but the Gregory Sacco trainee needs to improve to grab a check here. Pass.

By Coal Front, is 2-for-7 lifetime for trainer Gregory Sacco. Last out he was sixth, beaten by 11-lengths, in the Sam F. Davis. That was his only off-the-board effort at Tampa Bay Downs. Crazy Mason is stakes placed via a third in the $100,000 Rocky Run Stakes but has been off the board in two of three stakes attempts, including the Sam F. Davis. I didn’t like him last out, and that has not changed. Pass.

9. Grand Mo the First (12-1)

The well-traveled Grand Mo the First won on Tapeta and has been third on turf and dirt. He closed in his last two stakes, including a seven-wide move in the Swale, and closed steadily down the lane to gain third place. It was a reasonable effort in his first start of the year, and the Victor Barboza trainee earned a 87 career-best speed rating. Uncle Mo’s son is out of the winning Giant’s Causeway mare Lilies So Fair, and his half-brother Palladium is stakes-placed. Their dam is a half to 2015 Florida Derby (G1) hero Materiality and Gazelle (G2) heroine My Miss Sophia, who bore Grade 1-winning turf miler Annapolis. Victor Barboza gave Grand Mo the First a pre-race five-furlong work in 1:01.49, and the colt should move forward in his second start off the layoff. Exotics.

By Uncle Mo, Grand Mo the First has tried every surface. The colt won his first two races, both of which were on Gulfstream’s all-weather track. He was then third in the Zuma Beach (G3) on the turf and third in the Swale (G3) on traditional dirt. Grand Mo the First’s best Equibase speed figure came in the Zuma Beach (G3). He earned a 91 then and an 86 last out in the Swale (G3), his second-best figure. Trainer Victor Barboza is 13 percent (38 percent in the money) in graded stakes over the last five years; his sole win during that time period came in June of last year. Pass.

10. Sturdy (8-1)

Sturdy hopes to improve off a close third-place finish against the well-regarded Corporate Power and Batten Down, a full brother to multiple-graded winner Tacitus. Sturdy closed resolutely down the lane, and only 1/2 length separated the trio. The final time for the 1 1/8 mile maiden event was 1:51.08, with a strong 12.79 final quarter. The George Weaver trainee received a career-best 87 speed rating and a 100 late-pace figure, the second-best in the Tampa Derby field. By second-ranked second-crop sire, the champion sprinter Mitole, Sturdy is out of the winning Harlan’s Holiday mare Holiday Saratoga. She’s a half to multiple graded winning sprinter, Heart Stealer, and Sturdy’s second dam Saratoga Humor is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter. Previously, Sturdy closed to finish second behind Domestic Product, and he faced future graded winners Locked and Drum Roll Please in his debut. Sturdy is shortening up in his second start off the layoff, and while a victory would be a surprise, a hearty exotics placing wouldn’t.

By Mitole, Sturdy is still a maiden after three starts for trainer George Weaver. His last two starts were both in 1 1/8-mile affairs. One of those he lost to Domestic Product, and the other was a close decision between him, Corporate Product, and Batten Down, as Laurie stated. He’s also faced Locked and Drum Roll Please, as Laurie already said. So he’s faced some tough company, but I do concur with Laurie’s assessment. I don’t anticipate a win, but an exotics placing isn’t off the table. Use underneath.

Laurie

Ashley

  5. Domestic Product

7. No More Time

  7. No More Time

5. Domestic Product

  9. Grand Mo the First

1. Heartened

10. Sturdy

4. Good Money