Head to Head: Handicapping Southwest, Kentucky Derby prep

Laurie

1. Maycocks Bay (3-1)

Godolphin homebred Maycocks Bay has two bright spots on his resume, his maiden victory over a sloppy Parx track and his first start as a 3-year-old, a dazzling 10 3/4-length victory in an off-the-turf allowance event at Fair Grounds. He earned Brisnet Speed Ratings of 90 and 94, respectively, so Maycocks Bay has potential. He also owns the highest late-pace figure in the field, a gaudy 102. However, this is a clear case of what did he beat? His rivals were lackluster in previous starts, and all were searching for their second career win, most after multiple starts. Speightstown’s son’s distaff line is loaded with stamina. His first four damsires are Medaglia d'Oro, Empire Maker, A.P Indy and Ninjinsky. Maycocks Bay is out of the multiple stakes winner Hallie Belle, a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Alms. The Michael Stidham trainee has worked consistently at Fair Grounds, including a pair of bullets. Maybe Maycocks Bay is maturing quickly, but he’s been inconsistent, and there’s a concern that he might regress from his latest effort. I’m not ready to jump in the deep end with this one yet, especially at 3-1. Pass.

By Speightstown, Maycocks Bay should come out of the gate with his running shoes on if he replicates his last effort. He took a high-level, one-mile-and-70-yard, optional claimer gate to wire over the Fair Grounds oval, earning a career-best 93 Equibase speed figure. That was quite a jump from the figures he put up as a juvenile, so he could bounce. The Michael Stidham trainee gets bonus points for having a win over a sloppy track but also gets another jockey change when Francisco Arrieta hops aboard on Saturday. At 3-1 on the morning line off just that last race seems far-fetched to me. Pass.

2. Charleston (30-1)

One of two maidens in the Southwest Field, Charleston made up ground to hit the board in two maiden claiming contests. Then he was claimed and set against straight maidens. The Will Fires trainee pressed the early pace before wilting like a dead houseplant to 11th place, whipped 20 lengths by Common Defense. Tapiture’s son is a half to stakes winner Conquest Mo Money, who placed in the Arkansas Derby. The second generation of his distaff line is filled with stakes winners, including multiple Grade 1 hero Brilliant speed. Charleston’s previous speed ratings are on the low side, so even if he bounces back, he still needs significant improvement. Pass. 

By Tapiture, Charleston enters the Southwest without ever having visited the winner’s circle. To be blunt, I have question marks circling my head like I’m a cartoon character. There is nothing in the past performances that indicates that this would be a good spot for this colt. Trainer Will Fires removes the blinkers after Charleston’s dismal effort last out, an angle that has not worked for him in the last year. Fires also hasn’t had a graded-stakes winner since Colonelsdarktemper won the 2017 West Virginia Derby (G3). Harry Hernandez has the call. Pass.

3. Magic Grant (30-1)

Magic Grant rallied in the stretch of the Springboard Mile, making up about eight lengths to finish third, two lengths behind Otto the Conqueror. Considering this Eddie Milligan Jr. trainee was three to four wide the entire race, it was a decent effort. Good Magic’s son is out of Harlan’s Holiday’s daughter Holiday Bertie. His second and third dams are stakes winners. Good Magic is a superior mud sire. According to RaceLens, he has 23 percent winners on off tracks. Plus, one of Magic Grant’s half-siblings is a multiple winner over the surface. Magic Grant’s Brisnet figures are on the low side but rising. Another improvement, especially in a speedy race, could see him pick up a check. Lower exotics.

By Good Magic, Magic Grant sandwiched a victory in the seven-furlong Clever Trevor Stakes between a sixth-place finish on debut and a third-place finish last out in the Remington Springboard Mile. He received a career-best 82 Equibase speed figure in the Springboard Mile, and as Laurie said, it was a good effort considering that he gave away some ground. Trainer Eddie Milligan Jr. has not had any graded stakes-runners in at least the last five years, according to Race Lens. Chris Landeros takes over from regular jockey Richard Eramia. Pass.

4. Otto the Conqueror (5-1)

Otto the Conqueror lived up to his moniker in the Springboard Mile. The Steve Asmussen charge battled on the front end the entire way, winning the war by 3/4 length. The speed duel was moderate, with a poky 14.65 final furlong. Street Sense’s son is out of a Grade 3-winning sprinter, Dream It Is, by Shackleford. Not much black type in the rest of the female family until the fourth generation. There’s a lot to like about Otto the Conqueror. He’s won the last three of four career starts, twice over sloppy-muddy tracks, and he beat Magic Grant and Just Steel. His only loss was by a length at the hooves of Liberal Arts in his debut. Otto was a $450,000 Keeneland yearling; he’s scrappy and likes to drill the competition into submission. He’s making his second start off the layoff and fired consecutive bullets over good and sloppy tracks. Sounds good, right? Yes, until we look at his late-pace ratings. He earned a 65 for the Springboard Mile; his best, a 91 last October, is middling for this field. Exotics.

By Street Sense, Otto the Conqueror fell a length shy of being undefeated in 4 career starts. As Laurie mentioned, the colt’s lone loss came to Liberal Arts in his debut. He owns wins over Just Steel and Magic Grant, plus his last two races were in the slop, which he’ll likely face again this weekend. Two starts back the colt earned a career-high 99 Equibase speed figure when facing optional claimers at Churchill Downs. But that number dropped to an 86 last out in the $300,000 Remington Springboard Mile. The drop is a bit concerning, and with all the other speed in this race, he could be up against it. Joel Rosario replaces Tyler Gaffalione in the irons for trainer Steve Asmussen. Use underneath.

5. Wynstock (4-1)

After bad beats as the favorite in his first two starts, Wynstock showed miraculous improvement just a few weeks after a 10-length drubbing, blowing away a field of maidens by 7 1/2 lengths. The Bob Baffert trainee showed further progress in the Los Al Futurity (G2), battling down the lane and hanging on by a half-length over Bob Hope Stakes runner-up Stronghold. Wynstock earned a career-best 99 speed rating for his effort. The New York-bred colt was a $700,000 OBS spring purchase after zipping a furlong in 9.4 seconds. The muscular, bright Chestnut resembles his sire Solomini, whom Baffert also conditioned. Wynstock is the first foal out of a half-sister to Oklahoma Derby (G3) winner Untrapped. Wynstock’s Claiborne-bred distaff line produced champion juveniles Johannesburg and Minardi, and this line produced the influential sire Pulpit. Wynstock’s internal fractions were in the 24-second range throughout the Los Al Futurity. Not surprising as his sire line (Smart Strike) has a propensity to get fairly one-paced runners who will click off 24-second fractions all day. Wynstock was bested 10 lengths over a wet-fast track in his second start. Solomini’s offspring are below average over wet tracks, and Wynstock’s dam competed on Poly and turf. Still, have to include because, Baffert. Exotics.

By Solomini, Wynstock is 2-for-4 in his career. Laurie mentioned Wynstock’s improvement, and I will expand on that by pointing out that a few things changed from the colt’s second start to his third. In his first two starts, Wynstock had a troubled beginning and raced mid-pack. In his third race, Baffert stretched the colt out to a mile and changed jockeys from Juan Hernandez to Kyle Frey. Wynstock broke cleanly and set the pace, a style he replicated when winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in his fourth start. So there are quite a few variables to sift through. I liked the determination I saw from Wynstock in battling back after getting headed in the stretch and continuing to battle while playing bumper cars. Contender.

6. Liberal Arts (8-1)

Liberal Arts makes his 3-year-old debut after a 2 3/4-length victory in the Street Sense Stakes over a sloppy track in October. The pretty gray colt earned a 92 speed rating for his last-to-first effort. Arrogate’s son is a half to two restricted black-type earners, and their dam is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter. Robert Medina gave Liberal Arts a steady stream of three- and four-furlong works, including a second-to-last four-furlong breeze in 47.00 seconds. None of the Street Sense runners-up have won, and only Informed Patriot has hit the board. I expect Liberal Arts might need a start, but he may pass tired horses for a piece if the speed falls apart. Exotics. 

By the late Arrogate, Liberal Arts has never been outside the trifecta in five starts. It did take him three attempts to find the winner’s circle, and none of the three horses that finished in front of him in those two starts have done anything of note since. As for Liberal Arts, he closed out his juvenile year with a third in the Iroquois (G3) and a victory in the slop in the Street Sense (G3). Liberal Arts gave trainer Robert Medina his only career graded victory, making him 14 percent, 43 percent in the money, in graded stakes, according to Race Lens. Medina is also just 6 percent, 41 percent in the money, with runners coming off a two- to six-month layoff. Cristian Torres retains the mount. Use underneath.

7. Carbone (9-2)

Carbone looks ready for prime time, winning his initial two starts by a combined 12 lengths. He did it in racehorse time, too, getting final furlongs in 12.21 and 12.56 seconds, respectively, and his last start yielded a next-out winner and three runners-up. By leading first-crop sire Mitole, Carbone is the first foal out of Treasure in Heaven, a sprinting daughter of Street Sense. His second dam is a Grade 3-winning sprinter. The Steve Asmussen trainee hasn’t run on an off track, but his sire has one winner and four runners-up from eight starters over the off going, a promising sign. Plus, Carbone has three consecutive works over the off going with two bullets. The main concern isn’t the footing; it’s how he’ll adjust to the kickback if he doesn’t make the lead. So, how will Carbone handle two turns? Mitole has one winner and five runners-up from six starters at 1 1/16 miles. Win contender.
 

By Mitole, Carbone is undefeated in two starts. He won both by open lengths, kicking away from his competition in the stretch. He earned a career and field-best 98 Equibase speed figure in his last race, a one-mile, optional claimer at Oaklawn on New Year’s Eve. So far, Carbone has made every pole a winning one, and he figures to be part of what could be a lively pace. Regular jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. retains the mount for trainer Steve Asmussen. Contender.

8. Common Defense (15-1)

Common Defense puts on the armor to battle more experienced runners in his first start against winners. He was professional in his second start, racing in traffic most of the way and around the turn. Once he saw daylight, the Ken McPeek trainee didn’t need much encouragement. He targeted and passed rivals to win by 3 1/2 lengths. By Japanese-bred Karakontie, Common Defense is out of a full sister to the dam of the graded winners Fearless and Just Whistle. His dam is also a half to Withers (G3) winner Far from Over. Karakontie gets an above-average 19 percent off-track winners, and a couple of Common Defense’s half-siblings have done well over it. Common Defense’s speed ratings are on the low side, but he could hit the board with improvement and no maiden regression. McPeek has a respectable 17 percent win rate, 37 percent in the money, with the last-out maiden winner to stakes race angle. Long-shot exotics.

By Karakontie, Common Defense was second on debut for trainer Kenny McPeek. The colt that beat him that day, Lat Long, ran third in the Lecomte (G3) in his next start. Most of the rest of that field have not made subsequent starts, and of those that have, only Common Defense returned a winner. Since the colt’s most recent start was Jan. 13, it is too soon to tell what he beat in his second outing since none of those rivals have made subsequent starts. That last race puts Common Defense on a three-week turnaround, plus he will be coming off Lasix. According to Race Lens, McPeek is just 7 percent, 24 percent in the money, with runners coming off Lasix and an eight- to 30-day turnaround. Julien Leparoux has the call, and he will be the colt’s third jockey in as many starts. Pass.

9. Linebacker (30-1)

The second maiden in the Southwest field, Linebacker has been beaten a combined 11 lengths in a trio of starts, including once by eventual Sugar Bowl Stakes hero Legalize. The Jordan Blair trainee was off slow in two starts, and he’ll need more than added blinkers to make a touchdown in the Southwest. By no. 3 second crop sire Bolt d’ Oro, Linebacker is a half to stakes-placed runners American Mayhem and Heather’s Gray. Their dam is a half-sister to Del Mar Oaks (G1) heroine Sharla Rae. Bolt d’Oro has an average 17 percent mud winners. Although his speed ratings aren’t too bad, I don’t see Linebacker scoring here. Pass.

Cue more cartoon-style question marks. By Bolt d’Oro, Linebacker is winless in three starts. In fairness, he hasn’t run poorly, never finishing outside the trifecta. Trainer Jordan Blair adds blinkers in the hopes of sharpening Linebacker up a bit. Blair has struck out when adding blinkers over the last year and is 20 percent in the money. He is also winless in graded stakes over the past five years, 25 percent in the money, according to Race Lens. Emmanuel Esquivel has the call and will ride Linebacker for the first time. Pass.

10. Mystik Dan (12-1)

After pressing the pace in his last two starts, Mystik Dan couldn’t sustain the drive and was bested by a combined 11 1/4 lengths. Although Goldencents’s son’s second dam is a full sister to Grade 1 hero Siphonic, there’s little black type in the first two generations of Mystik Dan’s distaff line. The Ken McPeek trainee has shown that sprinting is his game. Pass.

By Goldencents, Mystik Dan is 1-for-4 lifetime with his lone win coming in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden event at Churchill Downs. He earned a 100 Equibase speed figure for that effort. He hasn’t hit the board since stretching out, but he was beaten by only 3 1/4-lengths for it all when finishing fifth in the $300,000 Smarty Jones Stakes last out. In his debut race, two of the colts he beat while finishing second went on to win the Sugar Bowl Stakes and run fourth in the Lecomte. Expect Mystik Dan to be part of the early pace and then fold. Regular jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. is back aboard for trainer Kenny McPeek. Pass.

11. Just Steel (8-1)

In the mid-stretch of the Smarty Jones Stakes, Just Steel looked like he might get to the wire first; but he couldn’t hold off Catching Freedom’s late rally and finished 2 1/2 lengths behind in second. Justify’s son has a solid turf pedigree and high leg action. He’s a half to two group stakes winners, and his dam is an Australian Group 1 winner. Just Steel finished third behind Otto the Conqueror three starts back over a sloppy track. So far, Justify has three winners and eight in the money from 28 off-track starters, and D. Wayne Lukas gave Just Steel a pre-race five-furlong bullet drill over a muddy Oaklawn track. Exotics.

By Justify, Just Steel is the salty veteran of the group with a whopping eight starts under his girth. While his dance card has been full, it has resulted in only two wins, his maiden-breaking victory in his third start and the $225,000 Ed Brown Stakes. He was off the board in his two prior graded attempts, both Grade 1 events. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee was most recently second in the $300,000 Smarty Jones. Catching Freedom, the winner that day, did not wheel back for this race. Ramon Vazquez, who was aboard in the Smarty Jones, retains the mount. Look for Just Steel to be part of the early pace. Exotics.

12. Awesome Road (8-1)

Awesome Road scratched from the Lecomte Stakes and shows up in the Southwest for his 3-year-old debut. The Brad Cox trainee looks to improve off a combined 29-length road rash in a pair of graded stakes in his last two starts. A $600,000 Keeneland yearling, the Claiborne farm-bred colt is by Quality Road out of Pulpit's full sister Orate. The mare previously produced the English Group 3 winner Whitecliftsofdover and restricted winner Endless Chatter. The Brad Cox trainee’s speed ratings are low, so I’ll wait to see whether he has matured over the break. Pass.

By Quality Road, Awesome Road debuted a winner for trainer Brad Cox. The six-furlong event at Ellis Park produced two next out winners, including Stronghold, who since has run second in the Bob Hope (G3) and the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). Awesome Road failed to hit the board in his next two starts, finishing seventh, beaten by 18 1/2 lengths, in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and fifth, beaten by 10 1/2 lengths, in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). The colt’s speed figures leave something to be desired, but look for Awesome Road to also be part of the pace. Florent Geroux has the call and will be riding Awesome Road for the first time. Pass.

Laurie

Ashley

7. Carbone (9-2)

5. Wynstock (4-1)

4. Otto the Conqueror (5-1)

4. Otto the Conqueror (5-1)

3. Magic Grant (30-1)

6. Liberal Arts (8-1)

6. Liberal Arts (8-1)

7. Carbone (9-2)