Head to Head: Handicapping 2024 Silverbulletday Stakes

Laurie

Ashley

1. Perfect Shot (4-1)

The improving Perfect Shot bulleted to a straightforward 3 1/4-length victory when stretching around two turns in her third start. The Steve Asmussen trainee has a consistent work pattern and improving Brisnet Speed Ratings. Perfect Shot relaxed while pressing the pace from the outside. She fought down the stretch with the pacesetter and was green down the lane, switching lanes in response to the crop. The victory was a grinding effort against tired horses, and the runner-up improved to win her next start. Gun Runner’s daughter is out of a daughter of Bodiemeister. Her female family has produced Arkansas Derby hero Nadal, champion 2-year-old filly Pleasant Stage and multiple Grade 1-winning turf hero Marsh Side. Perfect Shot’s late-pace figures are low, but she’s improving. Contender.

By Gun Runner, Perfect Shot took three attempts to break her maiden, finally getting the job done when stretching out to two turns. The winner of her debut race, Gin Gin scored in the $100,000 Busanda Stakes last weekend. The filly’s Equibase Speed Figures have improved with each start, culminating in an 86 last out. All of Perfect Shot’s previous races were at Churchill Downs, so this will be her first foray on a new track, although she has put in several works over the Fair Grounds oval. Joel Rosario will be aboard for the first time as both of the filly’s previous jockeys are riding elsewhere on Saturday. Contender.

2. Accommodate Eva (12-1)

Accommodate Eva was the “why” horse of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, sent to California after graduating in her third start. Since, she has improved to win sprinting against state-bred fillies. The Dallas Stewart trainee closed from last in her last two starts, but her sole victory was as a pacesetter. Munnings’s daughter is a half to a three black-type-earning sprinters. Accommodate Eva’s speed ratings are middling, and she needs to show more to be competitive. Pass.

By Munnings, Accommodate Eva took three attempts to break her maiden. She finally got the job done when Luis Saez put her on the lead. Since, she took a thumping in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, was beaten by weaker in the state-bred $75,000 Donovan L. Ferguson Memorial and won the state-bred $100,000 Louisiana champions day Lassie Stakes. Her highest Equibase Speed Figure was the 85 she earned when breaking her maiden. She’s had four different jockeys in her six starts, and Brian Hernandez Jr., who was aboard last out for her Lassie win, retains the mount for trainer Dallas Stewart. Pass.

3. Miss Code West (9-2)

Undefeated in four starts, Miss Code West steps up in distance and class. The Kevin Scholl trainee has bested her rivals by a combined 15 1/4 lengths with improved speed ratings. By Grade 3 winner Code West, Miss Code West is a half to two stakes-placed sprinter-milers. Miss Code West owns a competitive 93 late-pace rating. Sounds good, right? The Oklahoma-bred miss is making her first start outside Remington Park, and none of her beaten rivals has passed Oklahoma state lines, so this is a case of who did she beat, and can she step up? Exotics.

By Code West, Miss Code West is undefeated in four career starts, three of them in state-bred races at Remington Park in Oklahoma. She tried open company in her most recent start and won the $75,000, one-mile Trapeze Stakes by 6 3/4 lengths, earning a career-high 93 Equibase Speed Figure. Miss Code West has provided trainer Kevin Scholl with his only career stakes wins, giving him a 30 percent win clip and 40 percent in the money. This is by far the most important stakes race Scholl has tried, and like Laurie pointed out, the big question is who has Miss Code West beaten? Exotics.

4. Play Good Pay Good (15-1)

Play Good Pay Good is cross-entered in race 3, an allowance optional claiming, and also on Friday in a starter allowance.

Play Good Pay Good had trouble at the start of her debut, switched barns, won a $50,000 maiden claiming event at the Fair Grounds and was claimed by Michael Dubb. She is making her first start for Rob Atras. That means she’s making her third start for as many trainers. That $50,000 price tag was an excellent deal considering she sold for $250,000 at the Midlantic Fasig-Tipton 2-year-olds-in-training sale. Play Good Pay Good lived up to her sales price at the Fair Grounds in her second start. She toyed with the field early, setting 21.66- and 45.37-second fractions. Play Good Pay Good was challenged in the stretch but determinedly refused to give in, ticking off 57.93 seconds for five furlongs and stopping the clock at 1:11.74 for six, denying her closest rival by 3 1/4 lengths. She was flattered when the runner-up won her next start.  Congrats’s daughter is out of a multiple winning miler. Her dam is a half to a stakes-placed turf miler. Of interest to pedigree geeks, Play Good Pay Good has Rasmussen Factor, inbred to a superior female within five generations to My Charmer, dam of the legendary Seattle Slew, who is Congrat’s second-tail sire, grandpa on dad’s side. My Charmer bore Seattle Slew’s half-brother Seattle Dancer, Play Good Pay Good’s second damsire. Both stallions were bred to Secretariat daughters to get A.P. Indy, Congrat’s sire, and Jasminola, Play Good Pay Good’s second dam. Play Good Pay Good’s speed ratings are some of the lowest in the field, but there’s no denying she has the speed to be competitive if she can stretch it. Exotics.

Play Good Pay Good was last of seven in her debut after encountering trouble at the start. She made a barn switch and was dropped into maiden claiming company. She outclassed six rivals to graduate by 3 1/4 lengths after setting that lively pace Laurie talked about. The Congrats filly has changed barns again and will make her first start for Rob Atras, who wins at a 24 percent clip and is 59 percent in the money with starters first off the claim. However, he is only a 12 percent winner and 56 percent in the money with sprint-to-route runners and 11 percent and 32 percent in stakes races. If she goes here and not in the third race, pass.

5. Ma Rae’s Girl (8-1)

Ma Rae’s Girl started at three different tracks in the same number of starts with varying success. She bested a high-level, maiden-claiming field at Keeneland and optional claimers at Turfway Park with the typical maiden bounce in between. Mendelssohn’s daughter is half to a multiple stakes-placed turf miler. Their dam Isla is also a stakes-placed turf miler. Her extended female family includes Belmont Stakes hero Da’ Tara. The Doug O’Neill trainee’s speed ratings dropped in each start, and she’s plainly a second- or third-stringer for the stable. Not much to recommend, and I’d like to see what she can do on turf. Pass.

By Mendelssohn, Ma Rae’s Girl won her debut for trainer Doug O’Neill against high-level claimers and was flattered when the runner-up won next out while moving up into regular maiden company. She showed nothing in the $225,000 Fern Creek Stakes, checking in 6th of 11 and beaten by 9 1/2 lengths. Last out she went gate to\ wire against optional claimers in a one-mile race over Turfway’s Tapeta surface, giving her wins on traditional and artificial dirt. Reylu Gutierrez will be aboard for the first time, and he and O’Neill have a 17 percent win clip but only 21 percent in the money together over the last year. O’Neill is just an 8 percent winner and 33 percent in the money in stakes races during that same time frame. Pass.

6. West Omaha (2-1)

Morning-line favorite West Omaha sandwiched an eye-catching, four-length victory between a close runner-up placing in her debut and a second place in the Untappable Stakes. The Brad Cox trainee hit the gate and was tardy coming out of the gate. She appeared rank but settled for Joel Rosario while tracking the pace in third. West Omaha was green down the stretch, switching leads twice and running with her head up. Nonetheless she closed steadily for second place, two lengths behind the winner Alpine Princess. West Coast’s daughter is out of an unraced Medaglia d'Oro mare. There’s minor black type in the second generation of her female line, and her third dam is Grade 2 winner Call Now, who is also the third dam of Grade 1 winner and sire Tapizar. West Omaha has a speed rating of 92 and a late-pace rating of 95, the highest in the field. I don’t care for her upright way of running or that she switched leads and clearly was uncomfortable in the Untapable, but there’s no denying her talent and high win percentage of the connections. Contender.

By West Coast, West Omaha was third on debut for trainer Brad Cox but was placed second when the apparent winner of the seven-furlong, $120,000 maiden event was disqualified. None from that field has gone on to do much. A couple fillies tried stakes company and failed to hit the board. She was much the best in her second start under duplicate conditions and was flattered when both the runner-up and third-place finisher won next out. She was most recently second in the $100,000 Untapable Stakes, comfortably holding off third-place finisher Sistina Chapel. Winner Alpine Princess did not wheel back in this spot. West Omaha earned a career- and field-best 94 Equibase Speed Figure in the Untapable. Of note is that this filly will have her fourth jockey in as many starts when Luis Saez gets the leg up on Saturday. Contender.

7. Noriskit Nobiscuit (15-1)

Noriskit Nobiscuit’s sole victory in five career starts was a half-length win at the $150,000 maiden-claiming level. What’s relevant about the victory is that it’s the only time Tom Amoss let her stretch to 1 1/16 miles. Noriskit Nobiscuit had the speed to be close early but was taken back by Edgar Morales to settle near the rear of the pack. Then she swept five wide around the far turn and powered to the front. Noriskit Nobiscuit argued with the horse to her inside, won the battle of the minds and stayed a measured half-length in front to the wire. Noriskit Nobiscuit cut back in distance in the My Trusty Cat Stakes. She skimmed the rail and gained with every stride but ran out of ground, finishing third, two lengths behind the second-place finisher. She galloped out past the top pair. By no. 4 first-crop sire Omaha Beach, Noriskit Nobiscuit is the first foal out of a Pioneerof the Nile mare who is a half to Grade 1-winning sprinter Sean Avery. Noriskit Nobiscuit earned a 96 late-pace rating in her two-turn race, and if she runs back to that figure, she could surprise. Live long shot.

By Omaha Beach, Noriskit Nobiscuit has just one victory in five attempts. As Laurie already pointed out, the filly’s sole win came in her only two-turn race. She also was dropped into claiming company, albeit at a high level. Her second-best race was a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs. She managed third that day, beaten by just 5 1/4 lengths. Edgar Morales, who has the call for the Silverbulletday, was aboard for both those races. Noriskit Nobiscuit tried stakes company last out and finished a respectable third, beaten by 7 1/2 lengths, in the $100,000 My Trusty Cat Stakes. Both fillies who finished ahead of Noriskit Nobiscuit were fifth in their next starts. Tom Amoss is a 13 percent winner and 33 percent in the money with sprint-to-route runners but just an 8 percent winner and 28 percent in the money) in stakes races. Pass.

8. Sistina Chapel (7-2)

Typical of a Ken McPeek charge, Sistina Chapel has competed over multiple surfaces looking for her niche. Apparently she’s pretty good on all surfaces, never finishing off the board in all five starts. She was on the losing end of a photo finish in her debut on the Ellis Park turf and beat maidens over Churchill’s dirt, both starts at 1 1/16 miles. Most recently she was a distant third in the Untapable Stakes and was bested by three lengths for second by West Omaha. Liam’s Map’s daughter is out of a Brazil Grade 3 winner. Her extended family is filled with South America black type. Sistina Chapel’s speed ratings have improved in each outing. She’s consistent and must be considered a contender.

By Liam’s Map, Sistina Chapel never has been outside the trifecta despite competing on multiple surfaces. She broke her maiden on the dirt after finishing second in both turf starts. Since, she’s been chasing Alpine Princess, finishing second to that one in an optional claimer at Churchill and third, also behind West Omaha, in the $100,000 Untapable. She was bumped at the start and squeezed back, and she ended up a few lengths farther off the pace than she would have liked. If Corey Lanerie can get her out of the gate more cleanly Saturday, she should be in a position to run her preferred race. Contender.

Laurie

Ashley

7. Noriskit Nobiscuit (15-1)

8. Sistina Chapel (7-2)

1. Perfect Shot (4-1)

1. Perfect Shot (4-1)

8. Sistina Chapel (7-2)

6. West Omaha (2-1)

6. West Omaha (2-1)

3. Miss Code West (9-2)