Head to Head: Handicapping Santa Ysabel at Santa Anita

Laurie

Ashley

1. Ultimate Authority (4-1)

The third time was the charm for Ultimate Authority, who graduated by a green but determined half-length over Where’s My Ring. Ultimate Authority and her rival separated themselves from the field and speed-dueled down the lane. Ultimate Authority hesitated and mentally didn’t want to separate from Where’s My Ring, but Flavien Pratt encouraged her to move forward. They got a mile in 1:38 with a tepid 13.47-second final furlong. Ultimate Authority’s Brisnet speed rating improved in each start, topping out at 97. By fifth-ranked national sire Practical Joke, Ultimate Authority is the second foal out of the Tiznow mare Arbitress. The second generation of the distaff line includes Grade 2 winner Majestic River and the hardy black-type earners Tempus Fugit, Color Me Up and Chippewa Trail who made a combined 103 starts. Trainer Tim Yakteen gave Ultimate Authority a pair of sharp pre-race, five-furlong works, including one last Friday in company with maiden winner Anna's Music. It was an odd work as the rider on Ultimate Authority stood straight up in the irons for much of the work and didn’t ask Ultimate Authority to do much until past the wire, where she quickened late. Exotics.

By Practical Joke, Ultimate Authority is a last-out maiden winner. It took the filly three tries to find the winner’s circle, and she finished behind She’s a Tempest in her first two starts, including a head loss on Jan. 5. Last out Ultimate Authority defeated Where’s My Ring by a half-length in a one-mile, $65,000 maiden event. Kopion, who won Ultimate Authority’s debut race, also won the Santa Ynez (G3) by open lengths before falling to Kinza in the Las Virgenes (G3) last out. The filly’s second race included maiden Gate to Paradise, who is grade one placed via a third in the Del Mar Debutante (G1) in her second start. Trained by Tim Yakteen, Ultimate Authority is just a head shy of being undefeated at Santa Anita. The filly’s Equibase Speed Figures have improved with each start, including a field- and career-best 98 last out. Flavien Prat, who was aboard the filly last out, retains the mount for trainer Tim Yakteen. Contender.

2. Shiloh’s Mistress (12-1)

Like Ultimate Authority, Shiloh’s Mistress graduated in her third start, and at a mile. However, this start was over Turfway Park’s Tapeta. Shiloh’s Mistress settled comfortably on the rail in fifth early, tipped out in the stretch, and gradually wore down the pacesetters to win by 3 1/2 lengths. The Michael McCarthy trainee finished up in 1:40.95 with a 13.44-second final furlong, getting a 79 speed rating. Most of her rivals had three or more starts, and only one returned to win. By fourth-ranked second-crop sire Vino Rosso, Shiloh’s Mistress is a half to multiple graded winner Ahh Chocolate and multiple graded-placed turf horse Andestite. Their dam is half to multiple graded-winning turf veteran Rahystrada and Grade 3 winner Lone Star Sky. McCarthy gave the filly a spin around the Santa Anita course in a pre-race, four-furlong work in 48.60 seconds in company with Grade 2 winner Turnerloose and maiden Brunch with Amy. Surprisingly, the maiden and Shiloh’s Mistress outworked the Grade 2 winner, but Shiloh’s Mistress was kept under a snug hold until past the wire. Pass.

By Vino Rosso, Shiloh’s Mistress is also a last-out maiden winner who finally got her picture taken in her third start. It’s important to note she broke her maiden on Turfway’s Tapeta track after sixth- and second-place efforts in her prior two starts on traditional dirt. She earned a career-high 82 Equibase Speed Figure for her winning effort but didn’t improve much off her prior race. Trainer Mike McCarthy is a 13 percent winner and 43 percent in the money in graded stakes. John Velazquez, who was aboard the filly in her debut, hops aboard once again. Pass.

3. Pacific Rose (30-1)

Pacific Rose needed six starts to find the winner’s circle and finally got the job done in her first start as a 3-year-old shortening to a sprint and staying closer to the pace. The Doug O’Neill trainee’s Brisnet Speed Rating was a 77, and she crawled her final furlong in 13.82 seconds, winning by three-quarters of a length. Pass.

By Not This Time, Pacific Rose finally found the winner’s circle in her sixth and most recent start. Prior to that, she ran fourth, beaten by just 2 1/2 lengths in the Chandelier (G1) and fifth in the Starlet (G2). Trainer Doug O’Neill finally had to admit defeat and drop this filly into a maiden optional claimer for her to get that long sought-after victory. She received a career second-best 74 Equibase Speed Figure for her winning effort. Her best figure, an 86, came in the Chandelier (G1) Antonio Fresu has the return call for O’Neill. Pass.

4. Kinza (4-5)

The class of the field, Kinza captured both starts, including the Las Virgenes (G3), by a combined 9 1/2 lengths. She galloped home a two-length winner in the Las Virgenes, getting a mile in 1:37.03 with a 13.68-second final furlong. Carpe Diem’s daughter is out of the winning Quality Road mare Secret Wonder. The bulk of the black type in her female family is in the third generation, and that includes Grade 3 winning turf router Gentle Ruler and a pair of stakes-winning sprinters. Nothing to get excited about. The Bob Baffert trainee has a series of 1:00.0 five-furlong works, and a pre-race, two-furlong lung opener for speed. Contender.

By Carpe Diem, Kinza is undefeated in two starts, including a two-length victory in the Las Virgenes (G3) last out. Kinza’s debut race has not produced any other winners, although a couple did hit the board in the next starts. Where’s My Ring also was in that field, but her biggest claim to fame is a fourth-place finish in the Surfer Girl (G3) on the turf. No one from the Los Virgenes (G3) field has raced since, so it’s a bit early to tell what Kinza has or has not beaten. However, she’s in the Bob Baffert barn, and that tells me everything I need to know. Juan Hernandez stays aboard. Contender.

5. She’s a Tempest (8-1)

She’s a Tempest has hit the board in all four starts. After besting Ultimate Authority by a head in a maiden event, the Steve Knapp trainee ran an even third behind Kinza in the Las Virgenes (G3), not wanting to engage the top pair. Knapp outfits the filly with a shiny new set of blinkers to help her focus here. Connect’s daughter is out of the Tiznow mare, Hurricane Liz. The second dam Wind Flow is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter and is the most accomplished in three generations of the distaff line. She’s a Tempest earned an 87 Brisnet Speed Rating in the Las Virgenes. She’s a Tempest breezed a bullet four furlongs in 46.20 seconds after the Las Virgenes. Exotics.

By Connect, She’s a Tempest never has been out of the trifecta in four career starts. She finished second in her first two starts, checking in 3 1/4 lengths behind Starlet (G2) sixth-place finisher Grazia in her debut and 3 3/4 lengths behind Santa Ynez (G3) winner Kopion in her second start. She then won over Ultimate Authority by a determined head in her third start and most recently was third, beaten by just 3 1/2 lengths by Kinza in the Las Virgenes (G3). Trainer Steve Knapp is 0-for-23 in graded stakes races and 13 percent in the money in the last five years according to Race Lens. She’s a Tempest posted a career-best 91 Equibase Speed Figure in her winning race and received an 89 for her third-place finish last out. Regular rider Tiago Pereira has the call. Exotics.

6.  Nay V Belle (4-1)

Nay V Belle graduated at first asking 20 days ago. She traveled four wide the entire way and hooked the pacesetter in mid-stretch. Nay V Belle was a little green, turning her head a few times before sailing home a two-length winner. The Mark Glatt trainee earned a 88 Brisnet Speed Rating and a 101 late-pace figure, the best in the Santa Ysabel field. The cleverly named Nay V Belle is by Midshipman out of the unraced Medaglia d’Oro mare Café Belle. The dam’s half sister Twice as Sweet is a stakes-winning sprinter, and the second dam Snowbell won the 1 1/8-mile Comely (G3). Nay V Belle posted a pre-race, five-furlong work in 1:00.8. Exotics.

By Midshipman, Nay V Belle was a debut winner for trainer Mark Glatt. As Laurie said, that race was just 20 days ago, so none of her rivals has made subsequent starts. The filly received a 90 Equibase Speed Figure with Frankie Dettori aboard. Glatt has won graded stakes at a 15 percent clip and has been 44 percent in the money in the last five years, per Racing Lens, but has won 1 of 4 second career starts in graded stakes with two runners-up during that same period. The fact Glatt rarely sends out debut winners in graded stakes second out makes me believe he thinks he has a good filly here. Dettori has the return call. Contender.

7. Where’s My Ring (8-1)

The aptly named Where’s My Ring is still searching for the winner’s circle after six starts. Along the way she finished 11 lengths behind Just F Y I in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and more recently saw a distant, 10-length view of Kinza’s hind quarters. Where’s My Ring came closest to victory in her last start, missing by only a half-length to Ultimate Authority and earning a career-best 98 Brisnet Speed Rating. Is the Val Brinkerhoff trainee suddenly improving? Only Where’s My Ring knows for sure. I expect she still will be looking for her sought-after victory after this race. Pass.

By Twirling Candy, Where’s My Ring is still a maiden after six career starts. This filly’s past-performance quick notes read like something you’d expect from a theme-park bumper-cars ride rather than a horse race. She has managed to bobble, bump, start slowly or lug out at the start of five of her races, only getting away cleanly last out when she was second to Ultimate Authority. She also was on the pace last out rather than racing mid-pack, so that also could have helped her effort. Trainer Val Brinkerhoff is just a 5 percent winner and 33 percent in the money in graded stakes in the last five years and last saddled a graded winner in June 2021. Regular rider Victor Espinoza has the call. Pass.

8. Ifuaintfirsturlast (50-1)

Ifuaintfirsturlast finally finished first against maiden claimers in her eighth start. Where’s My Ring’s stablemate earned a career-best 78 Brisnet Speed Rating, and she’s certainly the why horse of the Santa Ysabel. I predict she’ll live up to her name and not in a good way. Pass.

Can I just say, yeah, what she said? This daughter of Mineshaft finally got a win last out. It was Val Brinkerhoff’s first shot at stretching the filly around two turns. Jockey Kyle Frey also got Ifuaintfirsturlast up on the pace for the first time, so maybe stretching and changing running tactics improved this filly? Even if it did, her best Equibase Speed Figure is still a dismal 74 with her next-best number a 57. Interestingly, those numbers were posted in her last two races, so she definitely showed marked improvement over that span. Frey has the return call. Pass.

Laurie

Ashley

4. Kinza (4-5)

1. Ultimate Authority (4-1)

6. Nay V Belle (4-1)

4. Kinza (4-5)

5. She’s a Tempest (8-1)

6. Nay V Belle (4-1)

1. Ultimate Authority (4-1)

5. She’s a Tempest (8-1)