Head to Head: Handicapping Kentucky Derby prep at Tampa
The Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes is the first of two 2024 Kentucky Derby qualifying preps contested at idyllic Tampa Bay Downs, and it is a stepping stone to the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on March 9. The top five official finishers are awarded a scale of 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points.
The 1 1/16-mile event is featured as race 10 of 11. A dozen 3-year-old colts will enter the starting gate, including Iroquois Stakes (G3) hero West Saratoga and the well-bred, Grade 2 winner Agate Road, who will try to transfer his turf form to dirt.
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This year’s Sam Davis Stakes is wide open, and a case can be made for and against most contenders. Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and I examine the field and offer our top picks.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. El Principito (50-1) | |
| El Principito’s finest moment was when he graduated at first asking in a $25,000 maiden-claiming event on the Gulfstream Tapeta. Since, he’s faded in every race like a bad spray tan. He pressed the pace in the Pasco Stakes and checked briefly around the three-eighths pole to get to the outside but to no avail, finishing a discouraging 14 1/4 lengths behind the winner. Despite losing ground in the stretch of each start, El Principito is bred to love two turns. By 2018 champion older male Accelerate, the Chestnut colt is out of an unraced daughter of Malibu Moon. His second dam is a stakes-winning sprinter. Pass. | By Accelerate, El Principito has just one win from six career starts. In his debut the Michael Laurato trainee took the field gate to wire. Since, El Principito has pressed the pace and failed to hit the board in all five subsequent starts. He’s faced several in this field in his last three starts and was beaten by all of them. El Principito will be Laurato’s first ever graded-stakes runner. He’s run some of his horses in minor stakes but has yet to hit the board in a stakes race, per Race Lens. Gabriel Maldonado has the mount. Pass. |
| 2. Tireless (12-1) | |
| Tireless got his picture taken in his fourth start, a mile-and-40-yard event 27 days ago at Tampa Bay Downs. The Todd Pletcher trainee rated off the pace and then picked off horses while circling three wide around the turn. He dueled to the wire, prevailing by three-quarters of a length. This $875,000 Keeneland yearling purchase by Not This Time is out of the winning Union Rags mare Kitty Union. The dark bay colt hails from the family of Grade 1 winner and sire Paynter. The fractions of his maiden race were 1:41.80, identical to a $6,250 maiden-claiming event for older horses earlier in the card but quicker than Crazy Mason’s 1:42.31 a race later. I like how Tireless rated on the outside, eyeballed his competitor and put him away. Tireless’s 82 Brisnet Speed Rating gives him room to improve in his second start of the year. Lower Exotics. | By Not This Time, Tireless began his career on the lawn, recording a second-place finish on debut and then a fifth-place finish in his second outing. Trainer Todd Pletcher stretched the colt out from a mile to 1 1/8 for his third start. That race came off the turf, and Tireless finished a good second. None from that field has won subsequent races, however. Tireless did get his first career win here at Tampa Bay, recording a career-high 88 Equibase Speed Figure. Tireless comes off Lasix for this race and gets jockey Antonio Gallardo for the first time. Tireless’s Equibase figures have improved with each start, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him continue to move forward. Use underneath. |
| 3. Patriot Spirit (6-1) | |
| Patriot Spirit has bookended victories in a maiden debut and the Inaugural Stakes. The Michael Campbell trainee had poor rides in the Iroquois (G3), where he opened a four-length early lead and came up empty in the stretch, and Keeneland’s Bowman Mill, where he was under a choke hold rating at the back of the pack and tired from fighting the jock. Constitution’s son is the first black-type winner out of the Grade 1 winner Mistical Plan, who also won the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Patriot Spirit is happiest and most successful as a pace presser. He had a solid late kick in the six-furlong Inaugural, finishing at 1:10.26 with a 12.83-second final furlong under a hand ride in the stretch. He earned a career-best 93 Brisnet rating and had a second-to-last mile breeze in 1:38.40, which should set him up nicely here. Exotics. | By Constitution, Patriot Spirit is already a well-traveled colt, making four starts at four different tracks. Trained by Michael Campbell, Patriot Spirit made his debut at Colonial, earning a career-best 87 Equibase Speed Figure. Only one from that field returned a winner at some point. Like Laurie essentially said, you can put a line through the Iroquois (G3) and the $200,000 Bowman Mill due to poor racing strategy. Patriot Spirit looked good when winning the six-furlong, $100,000 Inaugural Stakes over Crazy Mason in December with Samy Camacho aboard for the first time. Camacho does retain the mount here. Campbell has just one graded winner in the past five years, going 1-for-6 with his runners finishing off the board in the other five races, according to Race Lens. He does strike at a 33 percent clip with sprint-to-route runners and wins at a 38 percent clip and is in the money 75 percent of the time with Camacho. Use underneath. |
| 4. Crazy Mason (10-1) | |
| Crazy Mason has hit the board in 5 of 6 lifetime, including a last-out victory at a mile and 40 yards. The pretty gray colt was rank early through glacial fractions but settled once he got off the rail. The Greg Sacco trainee stormed from the back of the pack to nail Fulmineo at the wire, earning the Sam Davis field’s highest late-pace rating of 108. By multiple graded-winning sprinter-miler Coal Front, Crazy Mason is the first black-type winner out of graded-stakes placed Maria’s Mon mare Izshelegal. In Crazy Mason’s favor, he likes the Tampa track and has tactical speed. His speed ratings are inconsistent with a high-low cycle, and he’s finished behind Copper Tax and Patriot Spirit. Pass. | By Coal Front, Crazy Mason has been fairly consistent, hitting the board in five of his six races. He’s 2: 1-1-0 at Tampa Bay Downs, losing the $100,000 Inaugural Stakes to Patriot Spirit before coming back to triumph over Fulmineo in an optional claimer. The gray colt also finished behind Copper Tax when they contested the $100,000 Rocky Run at Delaware Park. Trainer Gregory Sacco is an 11 percent winner and 43 percent in the money in graded stakes over the last five years but is winless in stakes races in the last year. Crazy Mason comes off Lasix and retains Mychel Sanchez as his jockey. Pass. |
| 5. No More Time (10-1) | |
| Draw a line through No More Time’s Mucho Macho Man Stakes performance. Breaking from the rail, the Jose D’Angelo trainee was a little fractious in the gate, reared as the gate opened and veered toward the rail, giving the field a 5 1/2-length head start. He circled the field five wide to engage the leaders at the eighth pole but couldn’t sustain the drive. Not This Time’s son is out of the winning Speightstown mare Baroness Juliette. His second dam is a half-sister to the dam of recent Southwest (G3) hero Mystik Dan. No More Time breezed a pre-race bullet five furlongs in 1:00.0. If he behaves in the gate, this Iowa-bred has a legitimate shot. Note that Well Defined was fifth in the Mucho Macho Man before surprising in the 2019 Sam Davis. Exotics. | By Not This Time, No More Time is a Florida runner, making all three of his career starts at Gulfstream, and was scratched from last weekend’s Holy Bull (G2). He’s gone 3: 1-1-0 for trainer Jose D’Angelo with his only off-the-board finish coming when he was 5th in the $150,000 Mucho Macho Man against several that started in the Holy Bull. The colt earned a 69 Equibase Speed Figure in both his debut, in which he was second, and in the Mucho Macho Man. He posted a career-best 87 when breaking his maiden. In the Mucho Macho Man, No More Time hopped at the start and was rank for jockey Jose Ortiz. Paco Lopez takes over from Ortiz, and if he can get the colt out of the gate smoothly and settled, he could improve on his Mucho Macho Man performance. According to Race Lens, D'Angelo is winless with a 50 percent in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last five years. Use underneath. |
| 6. Agate Road (7-2) | |
| Agate Road had a promising start to his career in a six-furlong maiden event over Saratoga’s dirt. He was fractious in the gate and off last but made up 10 lengths in a furious rush to miss victory by a nose. The Todd Pletcher trainee switched to turf, winning the Pilgrim (G2) and, most recently, closing for second place in the Dania Beach in his first start of the year. Quality Road’s son is the first black-type winner out of Frizette (G1) heroine Yellow Agate. Agate Road has excellent leg extension and stretches his body out when running. He is one of the two graded winners in the field. He has experience getting dirt in his face and willingly passes other horses. Another plus is his Jan. 19 breeze with multiple stakes winner Noted. Agate Rode was stuck to his mate like a sand spur and galloped out slightly in front. Contender. | By Quality Road, Agate Road was originally slated for turf, but his debut race at Saratoga came off the turf. That made no difference as Agate Road closed to miss the victory by just a nose. He made his next four starts on the lawn for trainer Todd Pletcher, winning a maiden race and the Pilgrim (G2) before finishing fifth, beaten by just 2 1/2 lengths, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and second in the $125,000 Dania Beach. Agate Road owns a win over Fulmineo, besting that foe by 1 1/4 lengths when they last met in the Pilgrim (G2). Circling back to the colt’s debut race, four of his six rivals went on to become winners including a stakes winner on the lawn. I don’t typically love turf-to-dirt runners, but I do like this colt. Pletcher is a 24 winner and 62 percent in the money with turf-to-dirt runners in the last year. Jose Ortiz takes over from his brother Irad Ortiz Jr. Contender. |
| 7. Copper Tax (5-1) | |
| Copper Tax had his five-race win streak snapped in the Remsen Stakes (G2), where he was bumped and wide throughout over a muddy track. By Copper Bullet, a Grade 2-winning sprinter, Copper Tax is the second foal out of a stakes-placed sprinter-miler. His third dam is multiple Grade 1-placed Standard Equipment. Gary Capuano gave Copper Tax two pre-race, stamina-building, one-mile works at Laurel Park. Copper Tax likes to win, can overcome trouble and can rate when necessary. That said, the company he’s kept is a step down from this field. Pass. | By Copper Bullet, Copper Tax has spent the majority of his career racing at Delaware and Laurel, where he was the big fish in a small pond. He ventured out to New York for his most recent start and wound up sixth, beaten by 14 3/4 lengths in the Remsen (G2). That has turned out to be a productive race. Third-place finisher Drum Roll Please won the $150,000 Jerome Stakes next out. Seventh-place Domestic Product was second in last weekend’s Holy Bull (G2); eighth-place Billal was fourth in the $125,000 Swale (G3). Ninth-place finisher Le Dom Bro was seocnd in the Swale in his next outing. This bodes well for Copper Tax’s chances in his second attempt in graded company. Trainer Gary Capuano is winless in graded stakes in the last five years but has landed in the money at a 27 percent clip. Jockey Charlie Marquez has the call for the first time. Marquez has just a 9 percent win rate in the last 30 days but hits the board at a 36 percent clip. Laurie can pass, but I actually like this colt. Contender. |
| 8. Everdoit (30-1) | |
| Everdoit dueled bravely on the front end in the Mucho Macho Man but fell apart like a soggy taco by the eighth pole and wandered home last. Everdoit is by Gary D, a restricted-stakes winning son of Successful Appeal out of the winning mare Jaggermama, a half-sister to Grade 2-placed War Fighter and to restricted-stakes placed Jaggermonster, both placed in stakes at Tampa. The Kevin Rice trainee has a win at a mile and 40 yards over the track but needs to show more to be competitive here. Pass. | By Gary D, Everdoit, like No More Time, exits the Mucho Macho Man, where he was sixth and last, beaten by 10 lengths. Unfortunately, the Mucho Macho Man turned out to be a telling race, albeit in a negative fashion. The MMM runners who returned in last weekend’s Holy Bull (G2) all failed to hit the board with fourth-place finisher Inveigled best of all with another fourth-place effort. However, MMM runner-up First World War did win the Kitten’s Joy (G3) on the turf in his next start. This gray gelding is 2: 1-1-0 at Tampa Bay, but there certainly were no world-beaters in either of those races. Trainer Kevin Rice has not had a runner hit the board in a graded-stakes race in the last five years but does get jockey Huber Villa-Gomez, who was aboard in the gelding’s prior two Tampa Bay races. Pass. |
| 9. Change of Command (3-1) | |
| This $1 million yearling is one of the best 3-year-olds in Shug McGaughey’s barn this year. Change of Command has improved in each start of his career. After a second-place finish last year to Remsen runner-up Sierra Leone, Change of Command beat a so-so field of maidens at Gulfstream, getting seven furlongs in a slowish 1:25.02. McGaughey’s charge had to work hard as the even-money favorite to put away the less experienced Cardinale in his last start, holding on by a neck. Into Mischief’s son is out of a full sister to multiple graded-winning turf mare Mrs. McDougal. Change of Command breezed a second-to-last bullet four furlongs in 48.20 seconds at Payson Park. He gets a shiny new set of blinkers for the Sam Davis. Contender. | By Into Mischief, Change of Command ran decently in New York in the summer and into the fall, going 3: 0-1-1. He faced Breeders’ Cup Juvenile hero and Eclipse Champ Fierceness, who was third in last weekend’s Holy Bull (G2), in his debut. That field also produced $150,000 Nashua Stakes third-place finisher Billal. Change of Command lost his second start to eventual Mucho Macho Man third-place finisher Sea Streak. In his third start, the colt finished second to next-out Remsen (G2) runner-up Sierra Leone. In shipping to Gulfstream for the winter, Change of Command landed in softer company and quickly reeled off two straight wins. Trainer Shug McGaughey takes the colt off Lasix and adds first-time blinkers. In the last year, McGaughey is winless with a 45 percent in-the-money rate with both first-time blinkers and blinkers on. Tyler Gaffalione takes over from Jose Ortiz, who opted to ride Agate Road. Contender. |
| 10. West Saratoga (8-1) | |
| West Saratoga shook the straw off with a distant, second-place finish in the Pasco Stakes. He closed with a grinding style from fourth, beating the tired third-place finisher at the wire and getting his final furlong in an uninspiring 14.53 seconds. By Preakness hero Exaggerator, West Saratoga is the first foal out of an unraced Uncle Mo mare. The class in his female family skips to the third generation and includes Alcibiades (G1) heroine Wickedly Perfect. West Saratoga has tactical speed and has finished off the board only twice in his career. Larry Demeritte gave the pretty gray colt a stamina-building, five-furlong work after the Pasco and will remove the colt’s blinkers. Despite being a Grade 3 winner, West Saratoga’s speed ratings are low, and he’ll need at least a 20-point improvement to be competitive in this field. Pass. | By Exaggerator, West Saratoga knocked at the winner’s circle door throughout the spring and early summer, going 4: 0-3-0 before finally getting his picture taken in his fifth career start. He peaked in the Iroquois (G3), earning a career-best 87 Equibase Speed Figure before regressing in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) against the likes of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile third-place finisher Locked. Trainer Larry Demeritte gave the colt a break following the Breeders’ Futurity, and West Saratoga came back to run a well-beaten second to Futurity (G3) winner Book’em Danno. Demeritte is winless with a 50 percent in-the-money rate with runners second off a two- to six-month layoff in the past year but is a 25 winner and 50 percent in the money in graded stakes during that same time frame. Jesus Castañon will be aboard the colt for the first time, and if West Saratoga can run back to his Iroquois form, he can get a piece of this. Use underneath. |
| 11. Fulmineo (15-1) | |
| Second to Agate Road in the Pilgrim (G2), Fulmineo successfully switched to the main track in his first start of the season. The Arnaud Delacour trainee was slow out of the gate and ate dirt early hanging out at the back of a bunched pack. Racing three wide, Fulmineo closed into slow fractions and looked like a winner in the stretch only to hang slightly and be denied by Crazy Mason. Fulmineo is by no. 7 third-crop sire Bolt d’Oro and is the first foal out of the stakes-winning miler Starr of Quality. Fulmineo owns the field’s second-highest speed rating. Pass. | By Bolt d’Oro, Fulmineo, like Agate Road, has successfully competed on turf and dirt, although he does not yet own a dirt victory. As Laurie pointed out, Fulmineo looked like a winner last out but hung in the stretch. While he does have the second-highest speed figure in the field behind Agate Road, that number was earned on turf and not dirt. Daniel Centeno retains the mount for trainer Arnaud Delacour. Pass. |
| 12. Elysian Meadows (15-1) | |
| Lightly raced Elysian Meadows conquered two state-bred maiden fields last year. Now the Bill Mott trainee returns off the layoff stretching out in graded company. Elysian Meadows is by no. 3 third-crop sire City of Light out of Heavenly Thought, a winning War Front mare. She’s half to restricted-stakes winner Jackson Heights. Elysian Meadows had a second-to-last, five-furlong bullet breeze at Payson Park. Although his speed ratings are low, he’s bred to love two turns and improve with maturity. Live long shot. | By City of Light, Elysian Meadows is undefeated in two career starts, both in New York-bred company at Aqueduct. Trainer Bill Mott isn’t known to place his charges all willy-nilly, so the fact that he's taking a shot here tells me he’s got the confidence that Elysian Meadows is a good fit. Mott is a 25 percent winner and 53 percent in the money with sprint-to-route runners and is a 23 percent winner and 52 percent in the money in stakes races over the last year. Junior Alvarado replaces Jose Lezcano. The Greek myth nerd in me says that only good can from Elysian Meadows and that perhaps he will be lucky enough to be blessed. I agree with Laurie. Live long shot. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: The Sam F. Davis is a tough race to handicap. Only three of the last dozen favorites won. Two placed, and two showed. No particular running style is prominent.
Only two Sam Davis heroes didn’t hit the top three spots in their previous start. None prepped in the Pasco, and three captured the Sam Davis in their first start off the layoff.
So, how do entrants with a race over the Tampa surface fare? Not too well. Only two winners since 2005 had previous form on the track. The majority prepped at Gulfstream.
Change of Command fits the profile of previous Sam Davis winners. He prepped with a victory at Gulfstream and is on the improve. However, with the potential for a fast, early pace, I’d like to see him rate.
Agate Road sat closer to the pace in his last start, and I like how he matched strides with Locked a few breezes back. Locked is out of the Sam Davis with a fever and likely would have been a favorite.
Patriot Spirit has a lot of upside. He’s bred to improve with maturity and distance, and Samy Camacho has been winning dirt routes at a 24 percent clip this meet with 63 percent in the money.
It’s time to see what Elysian Meadows has. Last year Bill Mott entered Classic Legacy in the Sam Davis in his first start off the layoff and stretching out. The colt closed to finish fourth. In 2019, Mott was successful with two-time starter Tacitus returning off the layoff in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Although I didn’t add them to my picks, I debated over Tireless and No More Time. I think both have a shot at the exotics.
Ashley: There’s a good mix of early and presser types in this large field. Based on what I have seen from these runners, it’s difficult to say with any certainty who will come away with the lead. None in this field has consistently raced as the pacesetter, although several have wired fields in previous starts.
I have been following Copper Tax for a while, and I like this son of Copper Bullet. While he didn’t fare well in the Remsen (G2), those runners have come back nicely in subsequent stakes. As I said, this bodes well for the colt despite his big-fish-in-a-little-pond background.
Conversely, as much as I do like No More Time, all the other runners from the Mucho Macho Man did not run well in their next outings, so the strength of that race is in serious question.
Agate Road is intriguing. He lost by just a nose in his only previous dirt start and has been quite competitive on turf. Normally I’d stay away from this type due to a lack of dirt wins, but Agate Road stands a good chance here.
Change of Command has blossomed in Florida, and Patriot Spirit won one of the local preps for this spot.
All in all, this is a tough field to gauge as very few have been consistent, especially in bigger races.
Selections
Laurie | Ashley |
| 9. Change of Command (3-1) | 7. Copper Tax (5-1) |
| 6. Agate Road (7-2) | 6. Agate Road (7-2) |
| 3. Patriot Spirit (6-1) | 9. Change of Command (3-1) |
| 12. Elysian Meadows (15-1) | 12. Elysian Meadows (15-1) |