Head to Head for Bob Lewis: Handicapping Ky. Derby prep

Laurie

Ashley

1. Wine Me Up (6-1)

Other than his maiden victory, which he won at first asking, Wine Me Up has lost ground in the stretch of every race. The Bob Baffert trainee showed potential in his initial start as the race yielded three next-out winners, including eventual Grade 3 winner Stay Hot. The field also included Bob Lewis entrant McVay. Wine Me Up is by no. 4 second-crop sire Vino Rosso and out of the multiple stakes-winning turf mare Deanaallen’skitten. Wine Me Up has one pace, and that pace is slow. His final furlong in his six-panel maiden victory went in 13.54 seconds. I don’t think the cutback in distance will help, but perhaps a switch to turf would. Pass.

By Vino Rosso, Wine Me Up is 1-for-4 lifetime for trainer Bob Baffert. The colt debuted a winner in September, taking a six-furlong, $82,000 maiden field gate to wire. Next out he was a solid runner-up to stablemate Muth in the American Pharoah (G1). Perhaps the pretty chestnut had a bit too much wine, because things have gone awry in his last two starts. Wine Me Up was dismal eighth of nine in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, beaten by 28 1/2 lengths. Baffert tried to end the colt on a good note, but Wine Me Up was bested by stablemates Wynstock, who is running in the Southwest (G3) and Bob Lewis rivals Coach Prime and Stronghold. The colt looks to get back on track here, so hopefully he’s improved over the last several weeks. Use underneath.

2. Ace of Clubs (20-1)

While he’s the most experienced in the Bob Lewis field with six starts, Ace of Clubs has only two sprint victories under his girth, a $100,000 maiden claimer and a starter optional claiming, both at Del Mar. The Doug O’Neill charge lost ground in three subsequent stakes. Ace of Clubs is by third-crop sire Mor Spirit, who captured the 2016 edition of the Bob Lewis. Ace of Clubs is out of the unraced Orb mare Rustic Chic. His second dam is the multiple stakes-winning turf mare My Lordship. Ace of Clubs hasn’t shown that he’s currently a stakes quality 3-year-old. Pass.

By Mor Spirit, Ace of Clubs was third on debut in a maiden-claiming race for trainer Doug O’Neill. He actually stepped up to a higher level, maiden-claiming race in his second start and came away with a half-length win. He followed that with a victory in a starter optional claiming. O’Neill then tried the colt on the turf, where he was fourth in the Zuma Beach (G3) and fifth in the $150,000 Golden Mile Stakes. O’Neill switched Ace of Clubs back to dirt for the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), and he checked in last of five. Three of his four rivals from that race return in this spot. Edwin Maldonado has the call for O’Neill, who is just a 6 percent winner and 33 percent in the money in graded stakes in the last five years, according to Race Lens. Pass.

3. Better Than Gold (6-1)

In his second start Better Than Gold settled into a steady rhythm at the back of the pack. When Mike Smith pushed the go button, Better Than Gold responded with a Zenyatta-like move, picking off horses as if they were standing still. He rolled by the bumping and grinding frontrunners two steps before the wire and galloped out in front. The Gary Mandella trainee completed his final furlong in an average 13.35 seconds. Nyquist’s son is out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Sweet Tess. In his initial start facing Nysos, Better Than Gold was slow out of the gate and had to steady hard, almost sitting down. That left him far behind the field, about 16 lengths out of it. Nonetheless, Better Than Gold caught up and passed a few horses. His Brisnet Speed Rating jumped from 79 to 89, and he earned a 96 late-pace rating in his second start. Better Than Gold logged a series of six- and seven-furlong works for the Bob Lewis, so he’ll certainly be fit. Exotics.

By Nyquist, Better Than Gold was thumped by Nysos in their debut, finishing eighth, beaten by 15 1/2 lengths. The colt broke slowly and was bumped at the start and then climbed through the early going, so it certainly wasn’t his day. The colt rebounded to win his second start while also stretching out from six furlongs to a mile. Two rivals from that race were next-out winners, and another two were second in their next start. Trainer Gary Mandella hasn’t had a graded-stakes winner since Living The Life won the 2016 All American (G3). However, Hall of Famer Mike Smith has the call, so I wouldn’t count this colt out. Use underneath.

4. Moonlit Sonata (20-1)

Moonlit Sonata was off slow in his debut but circled the field to graduate by 2 1/2 lengths in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden event at Del Mar. Three rivals returned to hit the board in their next outing. Moonlit Sonata came back in the San Vicente (G2) facing more accomplished runners, including Muth. The Tim Yakteen trainee was off key and never a threat, checking in second to last, 10 lengths behind Muth. Moonlit Sonata tuned up for the Bob Lewis with a 1:00.8 five-furlong move with the older allowance winner Reiquist. Wearing blinkers, Moonlit Sonata stayed a half-length ahead, but another horse joined the pair in the stretch to their outside. Moonlit Sonata was unsure about being in close between horses and wanted to back off. Malibu Moon’s son is a half to stakes winning sprinter Rager. Their dam is a half to multiple graded-stakes winning turf router Champ Pegasus, and the second dam is Grade 1 winning heroine Salt Champ. It’s noted that Moonlit Sonata loses the blinkers for the Bob Lewis, and that could help him regain confidence and move forward by seeing the other horses around him. There are others that I like better. Pass.

By Malibu Moon, Moonlit Sonata debuted a winner for trainer Tim Yakteen in a 6 1/2-furlong, $61,000 maiden event at Del Mar. The colt was off slow but steadily improved position and went on to win by 2 1/2 lengths. Of the nine rivals he faced that day, none was a next-out winner. However, two hit the board next out, and one became a winner in his second outing. Moonlit Sonata made his second start in the San Vicente (G2), finishing fifth, beaten by 10 1/2 lengths. The Bob Lewis will be Moonlit Sonata’s first attempt at a route. Yakteen is a 13 percent winner and is 38 percent in the money with sprint-to-route runners. Regular jockey Geovanni Franco retains the mount. Pass.

5. Coach Prime (5-1)

The $1.7 million Keeneland yearling Coach Prime switched to dirt in his second start, a mile maiden event. He showed professionalism and maturity racing between horses in tight quarters, waiting for a hole to open and having the confidence to trust Flavian Prat and move through the hole. Once in the clear, Coach Prime scored an easy, 7 1/4-length victory while under a hand ride. He got his final furlong in a sparkling 12.28 seconds. The race yielded two next-out winners. The Bob Baffert trainee faced winners in the Los Al Futurity (G2). He was reserved at the back of the pack early, circled the field five-wide and gained ground with each stride but ran out of real estate. Quality Road’s son is a half to stakes-placed turf sprinter Dr. Oseran. Coach Prime’s extended family includes graded-stakes winner and sire Fed Biz and Grade 1-winning sprinter Joking. Coach Prime and Nysos hinted at the upcoming race when they teamed up Jan. 7, breezing five furlongs in 59.0 seconds. Working on the inside, Coach Prime in blinkers was the more relaxed of the pair, ears half-cocked, while Nysos was all business with flat ears. Little separated the pair until the gallop out, where both were shaken up. They split around another horse, Coach Prime athletically cutting the corner. Neither horse was pushed, and they did the breeze well within themselves. Despite losing in the Los Al Futurity, Coach Prime earned a career-best 98 Brisnet Speed Rating with a 98 late-pace figure, the joint second highest in the field. Blinkers come off for the Bob Lewis. Exotics.

By Quality Road, Coach Prime, looking at you Deion Sanders, made his debut in a one-mile, $61,000 maiden event on the turf for Bob Baffert. He pressed the pace from second throughout, led briefly in upper stretch and then flattened out to finish third, by beaten 3 1/4 lengths. Baffert switched the colt to the dirt for his second start, resulting in a 7 1/4-length romp in the $61,000 one-mile event. Coach Prime received a career-best 98 Equibase Speed Figure for the effort, which is also the field-best number for the distance and surface of the Bob Lewis. Two from that race were next-out winners, and another two hit the board in their next start. Coach Prime was most recently third in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), beaten by just a length for all the honors. Jockey Frankie Dettori takes over from Flavien Prat, who is sticking with stablemate Nysos. Dettori has been on a bit of a cold streak the last couple of weeks, but together with Baffert, he wins at a 13 percent clip and is in the money 63 percent of the time. The blinkers will come off for this race, an angle that nets Baffert at a 19 percent win clip and 44 percent in the money. Contender.

6. Nysos (4-5)

Nysos was sold for $500,000 after breezing a furlong in 9.4 seconds. He’s living up to that hefty price tag so far, winning both starts by a combined 18 3/4 lengths. The youngster earned a gaudy 102 Brisnet Speed Rating in his six-furlong debut and stopped the clock at 1:08.97, getting his final furlong in 12.41 seconds. For an encore, the Bob Baffert trainee earned an identical speed rating in the seven-furlong Bob Hope (G3), finishing up at 1:21.71 with a final furlong in 12.51 seconds. He was just 1.71 seconds off the track record set in 1990. Nyquist’s son is a half to the stakes-placed sprinter Attabe and out of unraced Bernardini mare Zetta Z. Their third dam is Breeders’ Cup Distaff heroine Unbridled Elaine. Nysos had a pre-race, five-furlong breeze in company with last year’s Sham (G3) winner Reincarnate. Traveling outside his older stablemate, Nysos rated about a length behind before inching up around the turn. The rider turned Nysos loose about a furlong from the wire, and the colt immediately responded but switched back to his left lead for a few strides before switching back. Nysos should have no issue adding an extra furlong. He successfully rated in the Bob Hope, so he’s not a one-trick pony. The only chink in his armor is his intensity and inability to relax. Win contender. 

By Nyquist, Nysos is undefeated in two career starts for trainer Bob Baffert. He won his debut, a six-furlong affair, by 10 1/2 lengths over a field that included next-out winner Better Than Gold, and he received a 104 Equibase Speed Figure. In his second start Nysos annihilated the Bob Hope (G3) field, finishing 8 3/4 lengths clear of runner-up Stronghold while earning a field-best 105 Equibase Speed Figure. This will be the colt’s first attempt at a route, and Baffert has a 28 percent win clip and is 62 percent in the money with sprint-to-route runners. Flavien Prat sticks with the colt. Contender.

7. Stronghold (6-1)

Stronghold graduated in his second start, a one-mile maiden event at Churchill Downs. He bested two next-out winners and eventual Lecomte (G3) victor Track Phantom. Phil D’Amato brought Stronghold to California to compete in the Bob Hope Stakes and Los Al Futurity, where he’s played bridesmaid to a pair of Baffert winners. Ghostzapper’s son is out of Sorrento (G2) heroine Spectator, who also placed in the Del Mar Debutante (G1) and Santa Anita Oaks (G1). Stronghold’s third dam is champion juvenile filly Phone Chatter. Stronghold had a sharp, pre-race, 59.2-second breeze going five furlongs. Must include in exotics.

By Ghostzapper, Stronghold is 1-for-4 lifetime but never has been out of the exacta. He lost his debut to Awesome Road, who was off the board in his next two starts in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). He won his second start, a one-mile, $120,000 event at Churchill Downs, by 1 1/2 lengths over a field that included two next-out winners and eventual Lecomte (G3) victor Track Phantom. In his last two starts, Stronghold was a well-beaten second in the Bob Hope (G3), 8 3/4 lengths behind Nysos and a close second in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), losing by just a half-length to Southwest (G3) entrant Wynstock. In the Futurity, Stronghold and Wynstock traded bumps down the lane, battling it out to the wire. Trainer Phil D’Amato will run Stronghold with first-time blinkers, an angle at which he has not won and is 27 percent in the money within the last year, according to Race Lens. Antonio Fresu retains the mount. An exacta machine, Stronghold is a must-play. Use underneath.

8. Mc Vay (20-1)

Mc Vay was no match for the winner in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden event two weeks ago despite every opportunity to run him down in the stretch. Constitution’s son is out of the Union Rags mare Dothraki Sea. She’s a three-quarter sister to Grade 1 winner Dixie Chatter and a half to Grade 3 winner Rumor. Despite a nice pedigree, Mc Vay is the why-is-he-in-here horse. I’m surprised the usually conservative John Shirreffs entered here. Pass.

By Constitution, Mc Vay is winless in two starts for trainer John Shirreffs. In his debut the colt finished seventh, beaten by 12 1/2 lengths by winner Wine Me Up. That race was Sept. 2, and Mc Vay did not make his second start until Jan. 20, when he was second, beaten by 7 1/2 lengths. The colt is coming off Lasix, and Shirreffs has not won and is 25 percent in the money at that angle in the past year. He is also winless and 50 percent in the money with runners off a one- to 14-day turnaround, winless and 35 percent in the money with runners second off the layoff and winless with a 24 percent in-the-money rate in graded stakes in the past year, according to Race Lens. Umberto Rispoli, who will be the colt’s third jockey in as many starts, takes the reins. Pass. 

9. Scatify (6-1)

Scatify jumps into the deep end after beating maidens at Los Al by a half-length in December. The John Sadler trainee battled the length of the stretch with a stubborn foe before drawing ahead near the wire. Scatify completed his final furlong in a swift 12.30 seconds, so there’s potential here. Scatify is by no. 3 third-crop sire Justify and is the first foal out of stakes-winning turf sprinter Broadway Run. Scatify logged a series of five-furlong works and had a pre-race, six-furlong move, so he should be fit for the Bob Lewis. Additionally, he takes the blinkers off. Race Lens notes that Sadler has an 88 percent in-the-money rate with the last-out maiden winner-to-stakes angle. Exotics.

By Triple Crown hero Justify, Scatify debuted a winner for trainer John Sadler in a six-furlong, $45,000 maiden event at Los Alamitos on Dec. 16. After hitting the gate at the start, Scatify raced wide, ranging into contention on the far turn. He took over at the quarter pole and gamely battled the runner-up to prevail by half-length at the wire. The last two finishers from that field were both next-out winners. However, one dropped into claiming company, and the other beat a mix of quarter horses and Thoroughbreds in a 1,000-yard dash. Scatify stretches out to two turns, and Sadler wins 15 percent of the time and is in the money 44 percent with sprint-to-route runners. Héctor Berrios retains the mount. Pass.

Laurie

Ashley

6 Nysos (4-5)

5 Coach Prime (5-1)

5 Coach Prime (5-1)

6 Nysos (4-5)

7 Stronghold (6-1)

1 Wine Me Up (6-1)

9 Scatify (6-1)

7 Stronghold (6-1)