Head to Head: See two sides of the 2024 Jerome Stakes
Aqueduct’s $150,000 listed Jerome Stakes is the third of New York’s six Kentucky Derby qualifiers and the first 2024 event in the state.
Six colts completed the Jerome-Kentucky Derby double, the last being Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, when the race was still in the autumn. Since its move to the winter many of the Jerome Stakes heroes evolved into sprinter-milers, and only two, Vyjack (2013) and Firenze Fire (2018), made it into the Derby starting gate, both finishing off the board in the last 12 years.
This year’s one-mile Jerome Stakes attracted five competitors, headed by Remsen Stakes (G2) third-place finisher and even-money favorite Drum Roll Please and Skidmore Stakes winner El Grande O. 10-5-3-2-1 Derby qualifying points will be awarded, which means every horse in the race will earn points.
The Jerome Stakes is carded as the third race on a nine-race card with a 1:19 PM EST post time. Although a storm is expected later in the day, the track should be fast.
With Pedigree Power, we sort out the contenders from the pretenders.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Drum Roll Please (1-1) | |
| Drum Roll Please improved to graduate in his third start, drawing clear by two lengths in a one-turn mile. The Brad Cox trainee stretched to 1 1/8 miles in the Remsen and was the best of the rest, finishing 4 3/4 lengths behind the feuding Dornoch and Sierra Leone and earning a 93 Brisnet speed rating. By Hard Spun, Drum Roll Please is out of the multiple stakes-winning turf miler Imply and hails from the same distaff line as the great Holy Bull. Contender. | By Hard Spun, Drum Roll Please was sixth on debut to next-out stakes-placed Seize the Grey. That race produced two next-out winners plus eventual Remsen (G2) winner Dornoch. In his second start, Drum Roll Please finished sixth, 7 1/4 lengths behind next out Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner Locked while also being well clear of the third-place finisher. The Brad Cox trainee finally got the monkey off his back in his third start after moving from Saratoga to Aqueduct, Belmont at Aqueduct if you want to be technical. Last out, Drum Roll Please was third in the Remsen (G2), 4 3/4 lengths behind the winner. Neither the winner nor the runner-up are in this field. This son of Hard Spun seems to dislike an off-track, though he did post a career-high 90 Equibase speed figure in the mud in the Remsen. Javier Castellano, who was aboard for his last two races, retains the mount. Top choice. |
| 2. Khanate (6-1) | |
| After graduating by 10 1/2 lengths in his third start, Khanate showed early speed against winners around two turns but backed up in mid-stretch after playing bumper cars between rivals. By Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Hightail out of the stakes-winning turf mare Mongolian Shopper, Khanate is bred for speed. Although the Todd Pletcher trainee shortens up, his late-pace speed ratings are in the mid-70’s, and he hasn’t shown the speed of his Jerome rivals. Pass. | By Hightail, Khanate took three attempts to break his maiden. In his debut, he played bumper cars at the break, made a 3-4 wide move on the far turn but was never a threat, finishing fifth, beaten by 11 1/2 lengths. Only one colt aside from Khanate has become a winner since that race. Pletcher tried the colt on turf for his second start, but he came up empty in the 5 1/2-furlong event after pressing the pace. Shipping from Saratoga to Keeneland resulted in a runaway victory for Khanate in his third start. Two of eleven rivals from that field have become winners since. In his last start, Khanate finished sixth, beaten by 5 lengths. Khanate once again played bumper cars at the start but rushed up to set the pace and continued to battle until he was put into tight quarters in the final sixteenth. He received a career-high 84 Equibase speed figure for the effort. Catching Freedom, the fourth-place finisher in that optional claimer at Churchill Downs won the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn last weekend. Manny Franco hops aboard for the first time, taking over from Luis Saez. Pass. |
| 3. Sweet Soddy J (8-1) | |
| This road warrior has competed on seven different tracks with varying success. He won three of eight starts sprinting at Colonial Downs, Timonium, and Laurel Park. Sweet Soddy J’s speed ratings are inconsistent, ranging from 56 to a career-best 91 in his last start. The Raymond Ginter, Jr. trainee is by Grade 1-winning miler Bee Jersey but otherwise has little black type in his pedigree. He’ll need to improve to be competitive here. Pass. | By Bee Jersey, Sweet Soddy J is one of the saltier runners in this field, already having raced 8 times since August 10. The gelding began his career 2-for-2, but then reeled off five straight losses, including a 37 3/4-length drubbing in the Champagne (G1). Last out, Sweet Soddy J won the $100,000 Heft Stakes at Laurel by 6 lengths. That puts him on a one-week turnaround for the Jerome. Trainer Raymond Ginter, Jr. wins at a 23 percent clip (62 percent in the money) with runners off a turnaround of seven days or less. Dylan Davis will be aboard for the first time; Davis and Ginter, Jr. have only teamed up once in the last 365 days, resulting in an off-the-board finish. Pass. |
| 4. El Grande O (9-5) | |
| El Grande O’s only off-the-board finish in eight starts was a 16-length thrashing in the Champagne (G1), his second start in open company. Previously, he closed in an off-the-turf Skidmore Stakes after having to steady. Take Charge Indy’s son is a half to Grade 2-placed turf miler Meal Ticket. The Linda Rice trainee only wins as a pacesetter, and his late pace figures are some of the highest in the field. Contender. | By Take Charge Indy, El Grande is the second half of the salty pair in this field, also having amassed 8 career starts, though his debut dates back to May 28. Trained by Linda Rice, the Barry Schwartz-owned colt has only been out of the trifecta once, a sixth-place finish in the Champagne (G1). That was sandwiched between a runaway victory in the state-bred $125,000 Bertram F. Bongard and a 1 1/4-length victory in the state-bred $200,000 Sleepy Hollow Stakes. Typically a state-bred runner, El Grande O did try open company one other time aside from the Champagne, resulting in a 1 1/4-length second-place finish in the $150,000 Skidmore Stakes. This is a significantly weaker race than the Champagne, so this Rice trainee is hard to ignore. Plus El Grande O posted a field-high 94 Equibase speed figure when finishing second to Grade 1-placed The Wine Steward in the $200,000 Funny Cide Stakes. Kendrick Carmouche, who was aboard in the Champagne, once again replaces regular jockey Jose Ortiz. Contender. |
| 5. Regalo (5-1) | |
| A big fish in a small pond, Regalo takes on tougher foes after dominating optional claimers at Laurel by 4 1/2 lengths. While he owns the highest late pace rating of 98, the Brittany Russell trainee’s final times are a few seconds slower than his Jerome rivals. Maximus Mischief’s son has little blacktype in the first two generations of his female family. This isn’t the strongest field, so I must consider Regalo a contender. | By Maximus Mischief, Regalo hails from the Maryland circuit. He was second on debut for trainer Brittany Russell in a 6-furlong, $52,900 maiden event at Pimlico. Three from that race have since become winners including Regalo and Inveigled, who was most recently fourth, beaten by just 1 1/2 lengths for it all, in Gulfstream’s Mucho Macho Man Stakes. After shipping to Laurel, Regalo posted two runaway victories: one in a 7-furlong, $53,860 maiden event and one in a 1 1/16-mile, $62,500 optional claimer. One rival from Regalo’s maiden-breaking race was a next-out winner, and a couple others have hit the board in subsequent starts. In beating winners last out, the colt didn’t beat much, though one rival is stakes-placed at Delaware Park. Regalo’s Equibase figures have improved with each start, culminating with an 82 last out. Brittany Russell has been on fire in Maryland, but when she’s ventured to the New York circuit in the last year, she has won at just a 14 percent clip (44 percent in the money) according to Race Lens. Regardless, this is a small field, and I do like this colt better than a couple of the others. Contender. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: In the last dozen years, only two Jerome Stakes winners finished off the board in their previous prep. Both placed seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Most Jerome heroes gained ground in their prep and favored a pacesetting or pressing style on their way to the Jerome winner’s circle. Six favorites won; the last was Independence Hall in 2020.
All five Jerome entrants employ a pacesetting or pressing style. The race shapes up as a showdown between graded stakes-placed Drum Roll Please and listed winner El Grande O. Drum Roll Please has the most upside since he doesn’t need the lead to win, and overall, his late-pace figures are the highest in the field.
El Grande O.’s only poor race was when he was outclassed in the Champagne (G1), but he is a two-time winner at Aqueduct, once at a mile. The chink in his armor is that he’s a need-the-lead type and may wind up in a speed duel.
Regalo opened up in his last two starts, and we’ll see if he can handle the heat.
Ashley: I believe Laurie has summed things up nicely, so I don’t have much to add.
Khanate obviously didn’t like being put in tight quarters in his last start and backed right out of contention. Before that, he was part of a contingent charging hard for the wire. In this field of five, it’s unlikely that that same scenario would play out here. I’m willing to give him another shot down the road if he runs well here.
I like Drum Roll Please on the cutback in distance, drop in class, and prior experience over the track. And with the storms rolling in after post time for the Jerome, he should get the fast track he prefers. El Grande O is the only other in the field with previous races at Aqueduct, compiling a 3: 2-0-0 record over the surface. All three of those races were run over an off-track, and his only loss was when he was completely overmatched in the Champagne, as Laurie already pointed out. For once, Laurie and I see eye-to-eye.
Selections
Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Drum Roll Please (1-1) | 1. Drum Roll Please (1-1) |
| 4. El Grande O (9-5) | 4. El Grande O (9-5) |
| 5. Regalo (5-1) | 5. Regalo (5-1) |