Head to Head: Who can step up in the Fair Grounds Oaks?

Laurie

Ashley

1.   V V’s Dream (8-1)

V V's Dream had a wide trip in her 3-year-old debut in the Rachel Alexandra (G2). She was never involved, finishing 9 1/4 lengths behind Tarifa. A Grade 3 winner at a mile, V V’s Dream finds that extra half-furlong beyond her winning comfort level, as she’s lost ground in all three starts at 1 1/6 miles.

By 2019 Champion Sprinter and no. 2 second-crop sire Mitole, the pretty gray filly is out of the winning sprinter/miler Quay, a daughter of Tapit. Quay's stakes-placed half-sister bore multiple Grade 2-winning miler Kathleen O. None of V V's Dream's half-siblings have won beyond a mile, and this filly lost ground in all starts around two turns. The Ken McPeek trainee’s Brisnet figures fit with the rest of the field, and other than her last race, V V’s Dream has never finished out of the money. She draws the rail this time, and a ground-saving trip can put her in the exotics.

V V’s Dream began her career strong, going 4: 2-2-0 in her first four starts. She posted back-to-back 95 Equibase speed figures in steamrolling the Pocahontas (G3) field and finishing a close second in the Alcibiades (G1). She really tailed off in her last two starts, however. Though she finished third in the $200,000 Rags to Riches to end her juvenile campaign, she was 9 1/2 lengths behind the winner and earned just a 77 Equibase speed figure. V V’s Dream began her 2024 career in the Rachel Alexandra (G2), finishing fifth, beaten by 9 1/4 lengths by winner Tarifa. She earned a 74 for that effort. Now, the track was sloppy that day, and it’s entirely possible that a dislike for the surface coupled with 3 -month layoff was detrimental to her performance. Regular jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. retains the mount for trainer Kenny McPeek. Use underneath.

2.   Midsummer March (12-1)

Midsummer March outclassed a field of Oaklawn maidens in her second start. Hard to say what she beat since most of them had 3 or more previous starts, and none have returned to race. Midsummer March settled a few lengths off the lead early, and flopping ears showed that she was relaxed next to another horse. She swung 4 wide around the turn under a hand ride, was smacked a couple of times by Brian Hernandez, Jr., and opened up to win by 2 1/4 lengths without being seriously extended. Although the Ken McPeek trainee earned only an 83 Brisnet rating, and the 1 1/16 mile time was a pokey 1:46.42, she was well within herself.

Mendelssohn’s daughter is out of the Munning’s mare, Munny Spunt, who earned a Grade 3 victory at a mile vis DQ. She was a decent performer, hitting the board in 9 of 17 starts. Midsummer March’s third generation includes multiple Grade 3 veteran, Blues Street. Midsummer March could improve to hit the lower exotics.

Midsummer March just began her career back in February. She raced at the back of the field of nine and ended up sixth, beaten by 11 lengths. That field produced two next-out winners, including Midsummer March, and two that ran second next out. Trainer Kenny McPeek ran this filly back 22 days later, switching jockeys from Julien Leparoux to Brian Hernandez, Jr. Brian hustled her up to press the pace, and she went on to win by 2 1/4 lengths. None from that field have made subsequent starts, so it’s too early to judge what she beat that day. Her Equibase speed figure did improve from a 65 to an 82, but she’ll need to improve again to be competitive here. She gets her third different jockey in as many races when Reylu Gutierrez takes the reins. Pass.

3.   Alpine Princess (8-1)

In her 3-year-old debut, Alpine Princess was glued to the flank of the Rachel Alexandra Stakes pacesetter and mounted a bid at the top of the stretch. However, she couldn’t climb that mountain and quickly shorted stride, finishing fourth, 9 lengths behind Tarifa. Alpine Princess was short on conditioning with only one middling 5 furlong work since November. She breezed in company with Tarifa on March 9, a 49.00-second four-furlong move. Both fillies were under a tight hold, although Alpine Princess was more composed than Tarifa, who was rank throughout and didn’t like being restrained. Alpine Princess stayed a measured neck behind her mate for the entire breeze.

Alpine Princess is by champion 2-year-old Classic Empire out of the Curlin mare Le Moine. The mare is a half to stakes winning turf horse, and Another Miracle and Alpine Princess's second dam is a multiple stakes winner.

Now that she’s had a start under her girth, the Brad Cox trainee could revert to the for that earned her the Untappable Stakes victory here in December. Contender.

Alpine Princess debuted at Saratoga, finishing third in her first start before getting her picture taken in her second start. She then ran a dismal seventh in the Alcibiades (G1) after being fractious in the gate. She rebounded nicely to win a $127,000 allowance race followed by the $100,000 Untapable. Last out she faded to fourth after pressing the pace in the Rachel Alexandra (G2). As I’ve previously mentioned, the track was sloppy that day, so that may have played a factor in her performance. Alpine Princess posted a career and field-high (for the distance and surface) 97 Equibase speed figure in the Untapable. Regular jockey Florent Geroux retains the mount for trainer Brad Cox. Use underneath.

4.   Lucy Got Game (20-1)

Lucy Got Game was very game in her second start. She settled off the pace, circled three-wide, and was all business in the stretch, turning back a tepid challenge to win by 1 1/2 lengths. Her final time for seven furlongs at Delta Downs was 1:27.15, with a 12.72-second final furlong. The class of her rivals is suspect, as the runner-up has a lifetime 0-10 record. The Brad Cox trainee earned a 79 Brisnet speed rating but a strong 96 late pace figure, the second highest in the Fair Grounds Oaks field.

By champion older male and no. 4 second-crop sire Vino Rosso out of an unraced Ghostzapper mare, Lucy Got Game has the pedigree to run all day. Lucy Got Game’s half-sister Cosmic Burst won the 2018 Honey Bee (G3), and a couple of listed races. Their second dam and most of the extended family are European blacktype earners. Lucy Got Game had a pre-race 5 furlong move in 1:00.40. She started behind a pair of more experienced fillies and while she was all out to catch them, only gained a little ground. Lucy tries hard and she’s very game, but I’m not loving her in this spot. Pass.

Much like Midsummer March, Lucy Got Game debuted in February and had two closely spaced races. Trained by Thomas Amoss, the filly was fourth on debut, beaten by 9 lengths. Only one from that race hit the board next out aside from Lucy Got Game, who was a next-out winner. Amoss ran her back 20 days later, and she won as the odds-on favorite. That was with a class drop and a stretch out. Only one filly from that race has made a subsequent start, and she finished off the board. Amoss is 28 percent and 51 percent in the money with last out winners but only 11 percent and 29 percent in the money in stakes races over the last year, according to Race Lens. Edgar Morales, who was aboard in the filly’s debut, has the mount again. Pass.

5.   Tarifa (8-5)

Flavien Prat never moved a muscle on Tarifa as she outclassed most of today’s competition, opening up by 2 3/4 lengths in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes. A winner of three of four career starts, Tarifa posted a career-best 90 Brisnet speed rating. Her late pace figures in both starts at the Fair Grounds are in the 90s.

Bernardini's daughter is out of an unraced Awesome Again mare. Tarifa's second dam is a full sister to Tiznow.

The Brad Cox trainee was full of herself breezing with Alpine Princess. The rider had a tight hold while Tarifa fought him every step of the way, her head held high. That work isn’t something I like to see; it can indicate that a horse is over the top. Still, no denying Tarifa’s talent. Contender.

Trained by Brad Cox, Tarifa is 3-for-4 lifetime with her only loss coming in her second start in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer, where she finished fourth, beaten by 6 1/2 lengths.That blip aside, Tarifa won her debut, a $100,000 optional claimer, and was the heroine of the Rachel Alexandra (G2) last out. Tarifa posted a career-high 91 Equibase speed figure two starts back and a second highest figure of 89 in winning the Rachel Alexandra (G2). Flavien Prat had the mount for the first time last out and retains the honors for trainer Brad Cox. Contender.

6.   Intricate (2-1)

Intricate closed to be best of the rest in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes. It was an excellent start to the year, and her 87 Brisnet speed rating signals room to improve. The Brendan Walsh trainee had a strong second-to-last 4 furlong move in 48 seconds flat. Facing two overmatch maidens, Intricate galloped along 3-wide before opening up on the pair by several lengths.

Gun Runner's daughter has classic conformation and breeding. Her winning dam, by Distorted Humor, is a full sister to stakes winner Abraham and a half to Grade 1-placed turf miler Beat the Benchmark. Intricate’s speed ratings aren’t as impressive as Tarifa’s, but she’s perfectly capable of turning the tables in her second start off the layoff. Contender.

Intricate debuted fifth in a maiden event won by West Sunset, who won the $200,000 Rags to Riches in her next outing. Intricate then won her next two races, a $100,000 maiden event and the Golden Rod (G2). That maiden race didn’t produce anything of note, but the Golden Rod (G2) did include Rags to Riches runner-up, Busanda winner, and Busher third-place finisher Gin Gin. As Laurie stated, Intricate did get up to be the best of the rest in the Rachel Alexandra and could turn the tables on Tarifa. Trainer Brendan Walsh has a 13 percent win rate in graded stakes over the last five years while landing in the money at a 43 percent clip. Regular jockey Tyler Gaffalione retains the mount, and Walsh and Gaffalione have been winning together at a 25 percent clip over the last year according to Race Lens. Exotics.

7.   Our Pretty Woman (4-1)

Our Pretty Woman shows the promise of living up to her lofty $900,000 yearling cost. Her allowance victory final time of 1:45 compared to the Rachel Alexandra Stakes contested a few races later. 1:45.28. The Steve Asmussen trainee earned a 90 speed rating, with a 91 late pace figure.

Medaglia d'Oro’s daughter is out of the multiple winning Speightstown mare Dazzletown, who is a half to the gallant veteran Yate’s Black Cat, a blacktype earning veteran of 48 starts.

Our Pretty Woman relaxed on the lead in her last start through easy fractions and wasn’t asked to run until mid-stretch. After a couple of taps from Joel Rosario, Our Pretty Woman opened up quickly to win by 4 1/2 lengths. Contender.

Trainer Steve Asmussen is taking a shot with his undefeated filly Our Pretty Woman. She won her debut race by 3 1/4 lengths, but the quality of that field is highly suspect. She next won a $65,000 allowance race. Again, there’s not much good to say about the quality of that race either, though the filly’s Equibase speed figure did jump from an 81 to a 91. Joel Rosario, who was aboard Our Pretty Woman last out, retains the mount for Asmussen. Contender.

8.   Accommodate Eva (20-1)

Accommodate Eva is sometimes competitive against state-bred stakes types, but she isn’t graded stakes class.

Munnings’s daughter is a half to three black-type-earning sprinters. The Dallas Stewart trainee ran the race of her life in her last start, the Louisiana Broodmare Of The Year Lipstick Junky Stakes, winning the one-mile contest by 5 1/4 lengths in 1:38.51, with a sharp 12.19 final furlong. That was good enough to net her a 90 Brisnet speed rating and a 101 late pace figure. Accommodate Eva would have to run back to that number to have a shot here but is more likely to regress. Pass.

Accommodate Eva is incredibly inconsistent, and I’m still salty that she made the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) after breaking her maiden after three tries and never having raced in a stakes races before. She did win a couple Louisiana-bred stakes but was a well-beaten fifth in the $150,000 Silverbulletday Stakes. Trainer Dallas Stewart has been known to throw some curveballs, but I’m willing to take the hit. Corey Lanerie, who was aboard last out when the filly won the $100,000 Louisiana Broodmare of the Year Lipstick Junky Stakes, retains the mount. Pass.

                Laurie

           Ashley

5. Tarifa (8-5)

7. Our Pretty Woman (4-1)

7. Our Pretty Woman (4-1)

3. Alpine Princess (8-1)

1. V V’s Dream (8-1)

1. V V’s Dream (8-1)

6. Intricate (2-1)

5. Tarifa (8-5)