Head to Head: See 2 sides of each Arkansas Derby contender

Laurie

Ashley

1. Will Take It (50-1)

Soundly beaten by Imperial Gun by 16 lengths and Dimatic by 20 in his first two outings, the light bulb came on for Will Take It in his third start. To be fair, Will Take It had a tough trip in his second start, having to steady hard around the first turn and then pushed 5-wide by the horse to his inside that blew the turn, costing Will Take It lengths. Jockey Francisco Arrieta wrapped up on Will Take It in the stretch after a four-wide trip. In his last start, the Eddie Milligan Jr. trainee took a stuttering step out of the gate and briefly had to steady in traffic around the first turn. He fought neck and neck down the lane but lost the photo by a nose. Will Take It’s Brisnet speed rating jumped from 61 to 89, and he completed his final half-furlong in 6.12 seconds. Tapit’s son is out of the unraced War Front mare, Lady Take Charge, a daughter of multiple Grade 1 heroine and 2014 Broodmare of the Year, Take Charge Lady. The mare’s descendants include Champions Will Take Charge, Take Charge Brandi, plus Grade 1 winners Take Charge Indy, plus As Time Goes By, the dam of Arkansas Derby hero Omaha Beach, and Take Charge Brandi. Will Take It is inbred 3 times to the superior mare Ruby Slippers. She’s Tapit’s second dam, and the dam of Rubiano, War Front’s second dam, plus Rubiano is Will Take It’s third damsire. Will Take It had two sharp five-furlong works, 1:00.8 and a recent 1:01.0, in preparation for the Arkansas Derby. Another step forward should put this well-bred colt in the money as a long shot for lower exotics.

Trained by Eddie Milligan Jr., Will Take It is definitely a why? entrant. The colt finished well-beaten ninths in his first two starts, won by fellow entrants Imperial Gun and Dimatic. Last out, Francisco Arrieta, his third jockey in as many starts, put Will Take It up closer to the pace, resulting in a second-place finish, beaten by just a nose. He also received a career-best 91 Equibase speed figure for the effort. According to Race Lens, Milligan is winless with four graded-stakes starters in the last year, with one finishing in the money. Arrieta retains the mount. Pass.

2. Timberlake (9-5)

Timberlake was sharp in his 3-year-old debut, sweeping five wide around the far turn and going on to a two-length victory in the Rebel (G2) as the favorite, and zipped his final half-furlong in 6.09 seconds. It was a good starting point for the Brad Cox-trained son of Into Mischief, as Timberlake earned a 97 Brisnet speed rating and his third triple-digit late pace figure in as many starts. This son of Into Mischief is out of an English Group 3-placed turf router and his extended family is filled with high-caliber stakes-winning turf routers, so the farther, the better. Timberlake tuned up with a pre-race five-furlong move in 1:00.4, comparable to his Rebel pre-race work. Contender.

Timberlake did exactly what he was supposed to do last out in the Rebel (G2). He pressed the pace before taking over and winning by two lengths, earning a career second-best Equibase speed figure of 105, topped only by the 106 he earned in winning the Champagne (G1) as a juvenile. His Rebel effort came off a 3 1/2-month layoff, so he had every excuse to not fire his best, but instead he came out firing on all cylinders. On an interesting note, jockey Flavien Prat gets the call on this colt for the first time, but that’s certainly not a bad thing. Trainer Brad Cox’s stats speak for themselves. Top choice.

3. Dimatic (20-1)

Dimatic wore blinkers for the Rebel Stakes after taking the scenic route down the stretch in his maiden victory. The Steven M. Asmussen trainee was farther back than usual and had to steady in heavy traffic down the backstretch. This caused him to become rank, running with his head straight up like a giraffe for several strides before settling down around the five-eighths pole. Dimatic spent the rest of the race in traffic and, once clear late, was one-paced while passing a few horses. Despite the mishap, his speed rating rose from 85 to 89 with a 91 late pace rating. This Gun Runner son has one of the classiest pedigrees in the Rebel field. His full brother Dreamlike was a runner-up in last year's Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and Wood Memorial (G2). Their half-sister Backflash placed in the Sunland Park Oaks. Their unraced dam is a full sister to 2014 champion 3-year-old filly Untapable and a half to Grade 1-winning turf router Paddy O'Prado. Another full sister bore Grade 3 winner Red Route One, who was second in last year's Southwest (G2), Rebel (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2). Dimatic recorded a second-to-last 5-furlong move in 1:00.6, the second-best of 68. Another step forward could earn him a check. Exotics.

Dimatic exits off a fifth-place effort in the Rebel (G2), where he earned a career-best 93 Equibase speed figure. Prior to that, he found victory in a 1 1/16-mile, $115,000 maiden race on the Southwest (G3) undercard. With Joel Rosario aboard, the colt pressed the pace, tipped three wide off the far turn and into the stretch, and took over easily. Dimatic did lug out abruptly in the stretch but quickly regathered momentum to finish three lengths clear of the runner-up. He earned a career-high 88 Equibase speed figure. While the race was contested at the same distance as the Southwest (G3), the final time was over two seconds slower than that of the Southwest (G3). Prior to that, Dimatic was sixth on debut at Churchill Downs and third in his second career start at Fair Grounds. His debut race produced one next-out winner: Hall of Fame, who was most recently tenth in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Dimatic was the only next-out winner from his second start. Cristian Torres takes over from Tyler Gaffalione, who had replaced regular rider Joel Rosario for trainer Steve Asmussen last out. The colt has improved with each start and I thought he could take home a piece of the pie with another step forward in the Rebel (G2), but that didn’t happen despite the career-best speed figure. Pass.

4. Time for Truth (20-1)

Although Time for Truth has won twice and was second once in three starts, his speed ratings are on the low end, and his last late pace figure of 78 is near the bottom of the Arkansas Derby field. He crawled 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.88 over a fast Oaklawn track in his last start, about a full second slower than $75,000 claimers a few races earlier. By third-ranked second-crop sire Omaha Beach, who won the 2019 Arkansas Derby, Time for Truth is out of the winning Lookin at Lucky mare, Shape Shifter, so the extra distance should be within his range. If the fractions are slow enough, the pacesetter-presser may hang on for a piece. Exotics.

Local runner Time for Truth is 3: 2-1-0 lifetime, with all starts coming at Oaklawn. The colt was a gate-to-wire winner upon debut in a 6-furlong, $115,000 maiden event, earning a monster 102 Equibase speed figure for the effort. He was then second in the $150,000 Ozark Stakes before rebounding to win an optional claimer last out. Unfortunately, the Ron Moquett trainee’s Equibase speed figures have dropped with each subsequent start, culminating with an 88 last out. Regular rider Rafael Bejarano retains the mount, and Moquett is winless with a 23 percent in the money rate in all stakes in the last year according to Race Lens. Pass.

5. Liberal Arts (15-1)

Liberal Arts rated comfortably on the rail in the Southwest before tipping out for his run down the stretch. He passed tired horses and gained ground on a tiring Just Steel, finishing a neck behind that one in an even one-paced effort. The Robert Medina trained Liberal Arts earned a respectable 91 speed rating, with a high 98 late pace figure. Arrogate’s son is a half to two restricted black type earners, and their dam, a daughter of Tribal Rule, is a multiple stakes-winning sprinter. Liberal Arts can improve in his second start off a layoff over a fast track. Exotics.

Liberal Arts has never been outside the trifecta in six starts. It did take him three attempts to find the winner’s circle, and none of the three horses that finished in front of him in those two starts have done anything of note since. As for Liberal Arts, he closed out his juvenile year with a third in the Iroquois (G3) and a victory in the slop in the Street Sense (G3). Liberal Arts gave trainer Robert Medina his only career graded victory, and after running third in the Southwest (G3) last out, has made him 11 percent with a 44 percent in the money clip in graded stakes, according to Race Lens. In the Southwest (G3), Liberal Arts was unhurried early, and when he did put in his bid, it came too late to steal the place from Just Steel. Tyler Gaffalione takes over from Cristian Torres. Use underneath.

6. Informed Patriot (30-1)

Besides his seven-furlong maiden victory, Informed Patriot has lost ground in the stretch of every start. He was a tired horse in his 3-year-old debut in the 1 1/16 mile Sunland Park Derby, finishing 13 lengths behind Stronghold. This full brother to 2019 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile hero Spun to Run has Brisnet speed ratings in the mid-80s and appears up against it. Pass.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Informed Patriot is just 1-for-6 lifetime with three third-place finishes in his last four outings. The colt’s debut race has only produced two eventual winners. The race in which Informed Patriot broke his maiden has only produced one winner. More recently, the colt was third to grade three winner Liberal Arts in the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense (G3) and third to undefeated stakes winner Who Dey in a one-mile, $100,000 optional claimer. The colt made his 2024 debut on New Year’s Day in the $300,000 Smarty Jones Stakes here at Oaklawn. He ran third, beaten by just 2 3/4 lengths, losing to recent Louisiana Derby (G2) hero Catching Freedom and Southwest (G3) runner-up Just Steel. Most recently, Informed Patriot was fifth in the Sunland Park Derby (G3), beaten by 13 1/2 lengths. The colt’s top Equibase speed figure is the 92 he earned when third in the Smarty Jones. Informed Patriot reunites with Ricardo Santana, Jr., who rode him in his debut and the Smarty Jones. Pass.

7. Muth (8-5)

Muth has a win/lose past performance cycle. He doesn’t do anything in a small way; he wins by 2-plus lengths or loses by 4-plus lengths. He won the 7-furlong San Vicente by 2 1/4 lengths to kick off his 3-year-old season with a sharp 94 Brisnet speed rating. Good Magic’s son is the first foal out of the winning Uncle Mo mare, Hoppa. The third generation of his distaff line is filled mainly with international black type, although the Grade 1 winning turf miler Hit the Road is part of the family. Like Timberlake, the Bob Baffert trainee recorded two triple-digit speed ratings last year and must be considered a contender.

If not for being trained by Bob Baffert, Muth would likely be considered one of the top Kentucky Derby prospects. The colt has never been out of the exacta in five career starts and includes victories in the American Pharoah (G1) and San Vicente (G2) among his wins. He was second to stablemate Prince of Monaco in the Best Pal (G3), who then won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) before running fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), and second to Fierceness in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), who was third in the Holy Bull (G3) in his 2024 debut. Muth is on the downside of his win-lose pattern, but regular rider Juan Hernandez sticks with him and he has to be considered a contender.

8. Just Steel (15-1)

The most experienced in the field with 10 career starts, Just Steel has finished off the board only 4 times. He threw a clunker in the Rebel Stakes, starting far back and going five wide around both turns. This was just 21 days after chasing Mystic Dan home in the Southwest (G3). Justify’s son has a solid turf pedigree and high leg action. He’s a half to two Group Stakes winners, and his dam is an Australian Group 1 sprinter/miler. Just Steel’s half-sister Omei Sword is an Australian Group 1 winning sprinter, and half-brother Lipizzaner is a listed winning sprinter in England. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee has no real speed but is determined and usually picks up a check. Exotics.

Just Steel looked really good in winning the $225,000 Ed Brown Stakes to close out his juvenile campaign and then finishing second to recent Louisiana Derby (G2) hero Catching Freedom in the $300,000 Smarty Jones and second to Mystik Dan in the Southwest (G3). Like Laurie stated, though, Just Steel threw a clunker last out in the Rebel (G2), finishing seventh, 10-lengths behind winner Timberlake. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is just three percent with a 34 percent in the money rate in graded stakes races in the last year, according to Race Lens. His last graded win came last month with Lemon Muffin in the Honeybee (G3) here at Oaklawn. In an interesting twist of events, Steve Asmussen’s son Keith has the call for the Lukas trainee. I’m willing to put a line through the Rebel (G2). Use underneath.

9. Mystik Dan (5-2)

I’m scratching my head over Mystik Dan’s break-out victory in the Southwest Stakes after losing his previous two starts by a combined 11 3/4 lengths. He earned a 101 speed rating and 112 late pace figure for his effort, a 16-point jump from his 85 in the Smarty Jones. Although Goldencents’s son’s second dam is a full sister to Grade 1 hero Siphonic, there’s little black type in the first two generations of Mystik Dan’s distaff line. The Ken McPeek trainee recorded a second-to-last 5 furlongs in 1:00. He may be 5-2, but that 16-point jump and dominating 8-length victory signals a regression. Pass.

While Laurie is scratching her head over Mystik Dan’s breakout win in the Southwest (G3), I’m willing to bet that the slop improved his performance. It was his first time on a muddy track, and he absolutely spanked rivals he’d previously lost to. Brian Hernandez Jr. retains the mount, but with no rain in the forecast and those ridiculously low morning line odds, I’m going to pass.

10. Imperial Gun (30-1)

In his second and last start last year, Imperial Gun bested maidens by 5 1/4 lengths, including Will Take It, who finished at the back of the field. All Imperial Gun’s competitors are still searching for their initial victory. In his first start against winners this year, the Steve Asmussen trainee just ran around out there and was flatter than yesterday’s soda. Gun Runner’s son is the fourth foal out of a winning Empire Maker mare. His second dam, the solid Memorette, made 32 starts, primarily in grade 1 and 2 races as a router on turf and dirt. Imperial Gun has the pedigree to run all day but would need considerable improvement to gun them down here. Pass.

The third of the Steve Asmussen trio, Imperial Gun is just 1-for-3 lifetime. He debuted fourth in a $115,000 maiden event before improving to take a different $115,000 maiden even in his second start by 5 3/4 lengths. He was most recently fourth in an optional claimer. As Laurie indicated, Imperial Gun hasn’t beaten anything. He also gets his fourth different jockey in as many starts when Emmanuel Esquivel gets the leg up on Saturday. Pass.

Laurie

Ashley

2. Timberlake (9-5)

2. Timberlake (9-5)

7. Muth (8-5)

5. Liberal Arts (15-1)

5. Liberal Arts (15-1)

7. Muth (8-5)

1. Will Take It (50-1)

8. Just Steel (15-1)