Head to Head: Ross, Tamulonis handicap 2023 Travers Stakes
The Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes, also known as the mid-summer derby, attracted a quality field of seven. Saratoga’s premier race for 3-year-old will be contested at 1 1/4 miles. While the Travers does not serve as a win-and-you’re in qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, the winner is often well bet in November. Arrogate was the last colt to complete the Travers-Breeders’ Cup Classic double.
For the first time since 2017, the Travers will feature three winners of Triple Crown races. That’s only happened twice in the last 40 years, and in neither instance did one of the 3-year-old classic winners prevail. In 1982, Runaway Groom bested Gato Del Sol, Aloma’s Ruler and Conquistador Cielo. West Coast took down the trio of Always Dreaming, Cloud Computing and Tapwrit in 2017.
Runaway Groom and West Coast both upset their fields when they won the mid-summer derby. This year, however, none of the Triple Crown race winners will go favored. That honor is likely to go to reigning juvenile champion Forte, who won the Jim Dandy (G2), one of the local preps, in his most recent start.
The Travers is listed as race 12 on Saratoga’s loaded, 13-race Saturday card. Post time is 6:11 p.m. EDT.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast sort out the contenders from the pretenders.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Forte, 7-5 | |
| Forte prevailed by a whiskery nose in a roughly run Jim Dandy Stakes (G2). After tailgating a slow pace over a muddy track, Irad Ortiz Jr. and Flavien Prat on Angel of Empire played bumper cars in the stretch. Prat tried to keep Ortiz and Forte pinned behind pacesetter Saudi Crown. The tactic didn’t work, and Forte quickly dispatched Angel of Empire and nailed a game Saudi Crown on the wire. The Todd Pletcher trainee earned a Brisnet rating of 107 and a late-pace figure of 102, the highest in the Travers field. Many think the Travers is Forte’s race to lose. Win contender. | I’m firmly in the camp that Forte would have won the Belmont (G1) if not for the 10-week layoff. That’s not to discredit Arcangelo. I simply think Forte is the better colt. As Laurie pointed out, the Violence colt and pilot Ortiz overcame some nice race-riding tactics from Prat in the Jim Dandy (G2) to prove best by a nose. He earned a career- and field-best 109 Equibase Speed Figure for the effort. He worked a solid four furlongs in 48.33 seconds on Aug. 10 and another maintenance half-mile in 50.50 seconds on Aug. 19 in preparation for his showdown with the winners of all three Triple Crown races. The one to beat. |
| 2. Arcangelo, 5-2 | |
| Since graduating in March, Arcangelo reeled off two more victories, including a 1 1/2-length victory in the Belmont Stakes. The pretty gray colt hasn’t raced since, yet his quick morning breezes have been the buzz of the Saratoga backstretch. Jena Antonucci’s charge has tactical speed and can sit anywhere. Will Arcangelo emulate his sire’s monumental 13 1/2-length victory or eclipse Arrogate’s Travers stakes and track record of 1:59.36 for 1 1/4 miles? Win contender. | Arcangelo quickly became the “it” colt with an upset victory over Forte in the Belmont (G1). With Jena Antonucci as the trainer and Javier Castellano as the jockey, it made for an engaging story when Antounucci became the first woman to train a U.S. classic win, and Castellano completed his own personal Triple Crown after winning the Kentucky Derby on Mage and then winning the Belmont with Arcangelo. The son of the late Arrogate earned a career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure in the Belmont, three points higher than his previous best. Antounucci doesn’t place her charges in stakes races often, but when she does, she strikes at a 29 percent win rate and 43 percent in the money. Castellano wound up on this colt when Mage’s decided not to wait for him to decide who he would ride. Contender. |
| 3. Tapit Trice, 12-1 | |
| Tapit Trice closed with his usual grinding style but was nosed out for second place in the Belmont Stakes by a resolute Forte. The Todd Pletcher trainee followed up with a non-effort in the Haskell (G1), so he’ll be outfitted with a shiny, new set of blinkers. Tapit Trice was competitive against lesser horses early in the year but needs to regain that form to have any shot. The pretty gray colt could conceivably hit the exotics if there’s a quick early pace. However, I prefer others. Toss. | Tapit Trice started taking a lot of money after a stylish win in optional-claiming company at Gulfstream Park in February. He lived up to billing in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and the Blue Grass (G1) despite his tendency to miss the break. While he was well-backed in the Kentucky Derby (G1), most of his supporters were looking forward to the Belmont (G1). The Belmont did end up being where he ran best, missing the win by just 1 1/2 lengths. As Laurie pointed out, the son of Tapit will get blinkers, which may sharpen him. According to Race Lens, trainer Todd Pletcher wins at a 20 percent clip and is in the money 52 percent of the time with sporting first-time blinkers. He could get up for a piece of the pie, but like Laurie, I like others better. Pass. |
| 4. Mage, 4-1 | |
| Our Kentucky Derby hero was up against it in the Preakness due to his closing, running style, managing no better than third place. Just like that his Triple Crown hopes were dashed. Mage returned in the Haskell and had every opportunity to win, but he backed off from the brilliant Geaux Rocket Ride. Trainer Gustavo Delgado gave Mage a series of stamina works to prep for the Travers. Mage can sit within a few lengths of the lead but generally prefers to close. He will be ridden for the first time by Flavien Prat due to Luis Saez suffering wrist and collarbone injuries in a fall Wednesday in the John’s Call Stakes. Exotics. | Mage received the perfect set-up in the Kentucky Derby (G1), but a smaller field and a loose-on-the-lead National Treasure worked against him in the Preakness (G1). As Laurie pointed out, Mage had every opportunity to win the Haskell (G1) but just couldn’t seal the deal. However, trainer Gustavo Delgado stated ahead of the race that the Haskell was a prep for the Travers and that his colt wasn’t fully cranked. According to Race Lens, Delgado wins at just an 8 percent clip and is in the money in 42 percent of his stakes races. Use underneath. |
| 5. National Treasure (8-1) | |
| National Treasure is inconsistent. However, Bob Baffert may have unlocked the key to how Quality Road’s son likes to run since National Treasure eked out a head victory as the Preakness pacesetter against a weak field. National Treasure’s distance limitations were exposed as the Belmont Stakes pacesetter. Now National Treasure faces a more challenging group as the lone speed. John Velazquez is a master at slowing the pace and stealing races, which gives National Treasure a long-shot chance. | I think Laurie pretty well hit the nail on the head. I would add, though, that while National Treasure has been inconsistent, he has been consistently second or third best in the Baffert barn. I would also argue that it may not have just been distance limitations that beat him in the Belmont. He also faced a much tougher field than he saw in Baltimore. Baffert takes the blinkers off for the Travers, a move that nets him a 29 percent win rate and 71 percent in the money. I think we’ll see a performance more reminiscent of the Belmont than the Preakness here with the solidity of the field. Pass. |
| 6. Disarm (8-1) | |
| Disarm is a solid Grade 2 to Grade 3 type. To his credit, Gun Runner’s son closed to a solid fourth place in the Kentucky Derby, and staying closer to the pace than usual, Disarm splashed his way to a half-length victory in the Matt Winn (G3). The Steve Asmussen trainee prefers to run with other horses and is generally a solid exotics play. | As often as not, horses who fill out the superfecta on the first Saturday in May got lucky rather than actually being better than their competition. I think Disarm was one of the lucky ones. He had the opportunity to show his mettle in the Jim Dandy (G2) and only beat one rival. Keep him in Grade 2 and Grade 3 company, and he can shine. I just don’t think he fits with this group. Trainer Steve Asmussen will run the son of Gun Runner with first-time blinkers, a 19 percent win angle and 42 percent in the money for him. Pass. |
| 7. Scotland (12-1) | |
| The up-and-coming Scotland gets a class and distance test after capturing the listed, 1 1/8-mile Curlin Stakes over a field of stakes winners, including Grade 1 winner Blazing Sevens. Curlin Stakes runner-up Il Miracolo returned to win Tuesday in the Smarty Jones (G3) next out. The Bill Mott trainee tuned up with a sharp, bullet four furlongs in 47.60 seconds. By Good Magic out of the graded-stakes-winning sprinter Gemswick Park, Scotland is an intriguing long shot with tactical speed. Exotics. | I really liked Scotland in his stakes debut in the Curlin at Saratoga, and he lived up to expectations with an easy, 3 1/4-length win in gate-to-wire fashion. As Laurie pointed out, that field included Grade 1 winner Blazing Sevens and next-out, Smarty Jones (G3) winner Il Miracolo. I don’t hang much on the strength of those two rivals, but I do nonetheless believe Scotland is a promising new shooter to the division. The 107 Equibase Speed Figure that Scotland earned in the Curlin is the second-highest number in the field. Race Lens shows trainer Bill Mott is a 21 percent winner and 46 percent in the money in stakes races. I don’t think he can beat Forte, but at 12-1, I’ll be playing Scotland in all other spots. Use underneath. |
Final thoughts
Laurie
There have been 13 winners of the Travers Stakes in the last 12 years. Alpha and Golden Ticket dead-heated in 2012. All 13 won or placed in their Travers prep. Six won or placed in the key prep, the Jim Dandy Stakes. Five favorites won, including the last three years.
Pace pressers and closers ruled with only two pacesetters prevailing.
So here’s the pace scenario. We have one certifiable pacesetter ridden by a jockey who is noted for slowing the pace and stealing races. The favorite is on the rail with a bullseye on his back, a couple with tactical speed, some one-paced closers and a mystery long shot who could be any kind.
Forte fits the profile of previous Travers winners. Arcangelo can sit close to the pace and conceivably pin Forte to the rail in a replay of the Jim Dandy, but Arcangelo is a more determined horse than Angel of Empire.
Scotland is the wild card. He could keep National Treasure honest on the pace, setting it up for Archangelo, Forte or even Mage.
Ashley
National Treasure is a confirmed pacesetter, but I think Junior Alvarado and Scotland will go with that rival. It would be the smart thing to do since John Velazquez can be incredibly savvy on the lead, and Scotland ran huge while setting the pace in the Curlin Stakes.
Race Lens has the entire field except National Treasure labeled as sustained type runners, but Arcangelo at least can be more tactical. Even Forte wasn’t far behind Saudi Crown in the Jim Dandy.
To keep it simple, I think this is Forte’s race to lose, and he will prove that the Triple Crown could have been his if not for circumstances beyond his control. Of the three Triple Crown race winners, I like Arcangelo best, and if any can beat Forte, he’s the most likely candidate.
However, I think Scotland will prove formidable, too. I left Mage out of my superfecta in the Haskell and lived to regret it, so I won’t be making that mistake here.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 2. Arcangelo, 5-2 | 1. Forte, 7-5 |
| 1. Forte, 7-5 | 2. Arcangelo, 5-2 |
| 7. Scotland, 12-1 | 7. Scotland, 12-1 |
| 4. Mage, 4-1 | 4. Mage, 4-1 |