Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Stephen Foster
The 1 1/8-mile $1 million, Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes has regained top status for the first time since 2018. This year’s edition attracted a field of eight, most of whom are as familiar to each other as they are to racing fans.
Recent grade one winners Stilleto Boy and Proxy lead the charge for trainers Ed Moger Jr. and Michael Stidham, respectively. Stilleto Boy sprang the 14-1 upset in this year’s Santa Anita Handicap and Proxy edged past favored West Will Power in November’s Clark Stakes to earn their first career Grade 1 victories.
Because of ongoing safety concerns at Churchill Downs, racing for this meet has been moved from the historic track to Ellis Park. The Stephen Foster is carded as Race 10 on the 11-race card with a post time of 5:26 p.m. EDT.
Ashley Tamulonis of From Coast to Coast and Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power are back from a hiatus to give you their take on one of the nation’s premier races.
| Ashley | Laurie |
| 1. Proxy (4-1) | |
| Proxy didn’t show much in his seasonal debut, putting in a mild rally to finish fifth in the Pegasus World Cup (G1), 7 1/2 lengths behind winner Art Collector and about two lengths behind third-place finisher Stilleto Boy. But he’s run bang-up races in his last two starts. He missed by just a neck to Stilleto Boy in the Santa Anita Handicap and finally turned the tables on that rival when winning the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) by a head. He also bested Last Samurai, who nosed out a tiring Stilleto Boy for second. He put up triple-digit Brisnet speed ratings in both of those races. A son of Tapit, Proxy has been in the trifecta in 13 of 16 career starts. Trainer Michael Stidham is 18 percent (48 percent in the money) in graded stakes and 19 percent (46 percent in the money) with shippers. Joel Rosario, who was aboard for his Oaklawn Handicap victory, retains the mount, but he can’t afford to fall asleep on Proxy, who makes one sustained run. Exotics. | This well-bred son of Tapit is ultra-consistent. He’s hit the board in 13 of 16 starts and seven of eight tries at 1 1/8 miles. The Michael Stidham trainee typically sits mid-pack or farther back, yet Joel Rosario had Proxy successfully press the pace in last year’s Clark Handicap (G1), beating West Will Power by 1 1/2 lengths. There are three pacesetters/pressers in the Stephen Foster, so Proxy might hang back and make his typical late run. The question is whether he’ll regress from the career-best 104 Brisnet Speed Rating he earned in the Oaklawn Handicap or continue to improve. Unlike Churchill Downs, Tapit’s offspring like Ellis Park and hit the board 41 percent of the time. Don’t ignore Proxy! Contender. |
| 2. Stilleto Boy (6-1) | |
| After knocking at the door for the last couple of years, Stilleto Boy broke through at the highest level with an upset victory in this year’s Santa Anita Handicap (G1). Before that, he had only one other graded win, a wire-to-wire effort against only three rivals in last year’s Californian (G2). Though he doesn’t win often, Stilleto Boy lands in the trifecta more often than not, doing so in 17 of 22 career starts. He’ll have company on the front end from Speed Bias and West Will Power, and this is a stacked field, so the gelded son of Shackleford will have to bring his A++ game. Trainer Ed Moger Jr. wins at only a 10 percent clip in graded stakes, though he’s in the money 57 percent of the time. Kent Desormeaux, who was aboard for Stilleto Boy’s last two races, has the call. Exotics. | Stilleto Boy had a better trip than Proxy in the Santa Anita Handicap and held on by a desperate head. Proxy reversed the decision in the Oaklawn Handicap. While Stilleto Boy was fighting with Last Samurai on his inside, Proxy made up ground on the outside and nipped them at the wire. As Ashley noted, the Ed Moger Jr. trainee is usually found on the lead but successfully won the Santa Anita Handicap from off the pace. Kent Desormeaux is on top of his game with 56 percent in the money in routes this year. Stilleto Boy has won only once in five starts at 1 1/8 miles but has hit the board four times. Exotics. |
| 3. Speed Bias (12-1) | |
| Speed Bias missed wiring the Pimlico Special (G3) field by a nose when Rattle N Roll got up just in time after a stretch duel. That was a fantastic effort for the 4-year-old son of Uncle Mo’s stakes debut. He earned a 101 Brisnet Speed Rating, just four points lower than his career-best three starts ago in the mud at Oaklawn Park. Speed Bias’s early speed figures were mediocre, but he’s really improved in his last three starts. Top rider Luis Saez remains aboard and likely will hustle the colt out to beat Stilleto Boy to the lead. Trainer Ron Moquett hasn’t been winning often at the graded level but is in the money at a 43 percent clip. Together Moquett and Saez have won 50 percent of their races while in the money 100 percent in the last couple of months. Live long shot. | This lightly raced 4-year-old son of Uncle Mo has finished out of the money only twice in his nine-race career. However, the Ron Moquett trainee has a case of seconditis these last three months. Speed Bias’s speed ratings regress slightly every other start, and he earned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure in his last start in the Pimlico Special. Speed Bias does his best work as a pacesetter and must contend with West Wild Power, who has a similar running style. Exotics. |
| 4. Rattle N Roll (4-1) | |
| A son of Connect, Rattle N Roll won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) over a suspect field as a juvenile. He has run in a Grade 1 only once since, a sixth place in last year’s Blue Grass Stakes, and has developed into a solid Grade 3 runner. The Kenny McPeek trainee has rattled off three straight wins in Grade 3 company leading to this race and has posted triple-digit speed ratings in six of his last seven races. This isn’t the strongest Grade 1 field assembled, and if Rattle N Roll is going to get another top-notch win, now’s the time. Contender. | Rattle N Roll is on top of his game and hopes to extend his three-race win streak to four in the Stephen Foster and add another Grade 1 victory to his resume. The Kenny McPeek trainee bested Speed Bias in the Pimlico Special and Happy American in the Blame Stakes but takes on a stronger group here. On a positive note, Rattle N Roll should get the pace to set up his run. Contender. |
| 5. Smile Happy (3-1) | |
| A son of Runhappy, Smile Happy has been outside the exacta only twice in his eight-race career, an eighth place in the Kentucky Derby and a third place in the Oaklawn Mile (G3). In his last start, Smile Happy put in a career-best effort (tie) when winning the Alysheba (G2) by two lengths and earning a 106 Brisnet Speed Rating. He has beaten Speed Bias and West Will Power this year and is Grade 1 placed via a runner-up finish in last year’s Blue Grass. Smile Happy owns the highest last-race speed rating, but he has been earning triple-digit figures only in alternating races, which would him on the downswing for this start. Exotics. | Smile Happy has hit the board in all three starts at 1 1/8 miles, with one victory in an optional claimer in the Oaklawn Park mud. The McPeek trainee’s speed ratings have a progress/regress cycle, and he earned a 106 Brisnet Speed Rating in the Alysheba (G2) in his last start. I agree with Ashley that Smile Happy will regress in this start, but he’s still capable of hitting the board. Exotics. |
| 6. West Will Power (7-2) | |
| By Bernardini, West Will Power has aged like fine wine. A solid runner early in his career, the 6-year-old has blossomed in the last 10 months, beginning with a wire-to-wire romp in the Fayette (G2) in October. This year he won the New Orleans Classic (G2) over Pegasus World Cup (G1) victor Art Collector, but he’s lost decisions to Proxy, Last Samurai and Smile Happy in three of his last four races. Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 30 percent clip (64 perdent in the money) with beaten favorites, a 26 percent clip (57 percent in the money) in graded stakes, and at a 22 percent rate (59 percent in the money) with runners off a 46-90 day layoff. West Will Power has the highest speed figure at the Stephen Foster distance and the best dirt speed in the field. Flavien Prat, who was aboard in the last two races, retains the mount and is winning with Cox at a 23 percent clip (54 percent in the money). Top selection. | West Will Power has been trading decisions with Last Samurai in the last two years but has been bested by Proxy and Smile Happy. The 6-year-old is always game and hasn’t finished off the board since 2021. The Brad Cox trainee has won three of five starts at 1 1/8 miles and was second in his only start at Ellis Park. Contender. |
| 7. Last Samurai (6-1) | |
| Last Samurai was beaten 11 lengths by Smile Happy last out in the Alysheba (G2), also checking in behind West Will Power. By Malibu Moon, the 5-year-old can be inconsistent and has traded decisions with half this field over the last year. In that same time period, he has posted a speed rating as high as 105 in this year’s Razorback Handicap (G3) and as low as 83 in the Charles Town Classic (G2) in August. In fairness, he posted three straight triple-digit rating efforts this year before tailing off in his last start. So which Last Samurai will show up? Sorry, Coach, but I’m not willing to bet on the winning version. Pass. | Last Samurai went off form in the Alysheba (G2), his eighth race since last October. Malibu Moon’s son has been pretty consistent, other than two fourth-place finishes in the Pegasus World Cup (G1), where he was outclassed, and the Clark Stakes (G1), ditto. The Lukas trainee generally needs a start to get back into form, and he’s lost to Proxy, West Will Power, Smile Happy and Stilleto Boy. Pass. |
| 8. Happy American (20-1) | |
| Like Smile Happy, Happy American is by top-notch sprinter Runhappy. But unlike that one, this 5-year-old gelding has not seen the same level of success. Trained by Neil Pessin, Happy American did best a mediocre field in the Louisiana Stakes (G3) to kick off 2023 but has managed to hit the board only once since, a third-place finish behind Rattle N Roll in the Blame (G3) last out. His speed ratings rank poorly against the rest of this field. He has two triple-digit efforts, but one of those was earned on the back of West Will Power, to whom he finished fifth, beaten 10 lengths, in the New Orleans Classic (G2). Pass. | Happy American struggles against Grade 3 level competition and was no threat to Rattle N Roll or West Will Power in his last three starts. Pass. |
Final thoughts
Ashley: Stilleto Boy, Speed Bias and West Will Power all will be vying for the early lead, with Stilleto Boy having the advantage of being closest to the rail. Speed Bias will break right to his outside, but West Will Power does have the gate speed to cross over, though it may have cost him in last year’s Clark.
West Will Power and Last Samurai are the only two in the field with prior starts at Ellis Park. West Will Power missed by a head in the R.A. “Cowboy” Jones Overnight Stakes last August, and Last Samurai was another 3/4 lengths back in third. Winner Injunction set a track record for the mile-long race while taking the field gate to wire.
This is a salty field, but none of them have been able to establish dominance over the others. All of them have faced each other at least once, so it’s not a big reach to make a case for any of them. Personally, I’m taking West Will Power. He has never been out of the exacta at the Stephen Foster distance and is a head away from owning a track record over this very surface. He also has the best speed rating in the field and has one of the best jockeys in the nation.
I want to like Proxy, but I feel like I can’t trust Rosario to give him a winning ride. They did win together last out at Oaklawn, but I still have a bitter taste in my mouth over his ride on War Like Goddess in the New York Stakes (G1). Stilleto Boy hasn’t missed the trifecta this year and clearly has the class. Rattle N Roll brings the win streak, and Speed Bias looks to be a strong up-and-comer.
Laurie: The Stephen Foster attracted a mediocre group that takes turns beating one another. So whose turn will it be this time? Ashley broke down the pace scenario, and I’m leaning toward a closer. Rattle N Roll is on top of his game, and he’ll be rolling down the lane. Proxy runs well fresh, and I think he’ll be overlooked. West Will Power may be softened up by Speed Bias and Stilletto Boy.
Selections
| Ashley | Laurie |
| 6. West Will Power (7-2) | 4. Rattle N Roll (4-1) |
| 4. Rattle N Roll (4-1) | 1. Proxy (4-1) |
| 2. Stilleto Boy (6-1) | 6. West Will Power (7-2) |
| 3. Speed Bias (12-1) | 2. Stilleto Boy (6-1) |