Head to Head: Handicapping Starlet Stakes prep for Ky. Oaks
Six entrants will contest the Grade 2, $200,000 Starlet Stakes for juvenile fillies, the opening-weekend feature on Saturday at Los Alamitos.
Trainer Bob Baffert is in an excellent position to earn his seventh straight victory in the Starlet since his charges account for one-third of the field. They will need to get through Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies alumna Chatalas, though.
The 1 1/16 mile contest is billed as race 9, the card’s finale, with a 7:30 p.m. EST post time. The 2024 Kentucky Oaks (G1) qualifier offers 10-5-3-2-1 qualifying points, but not for fillies trained by Baffert, who remains under a Churchill Downs suspension. Previous Starlet winners who went on to win the Kentucky Oaks include Abel Tasman 2016-17 and Blind Luck in 2009-10.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and I review the auditions for the next rising star.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Nothing Like You (9-5) | |
| The most experienced filly in the Starlet and probable favorite, Nothing Like You earned the nose bob in the listed Desi Arnaz Stakes. She took a stuttering step out of the gate and then made up ground along the rail. After switching outside in the stretch, the Bob Baffert trainee lost focus and drifted slightly in the stretch before rolling down the runway to nab the tail-flapping Tambo on the wire. Her Brisnet Speed Ratings are rising. She has the highest late-pace figure of 100. Malibu Moon’s daughter is a half to the stakes-winning miler South of France, and their dam is the multiple stakes winner Miss Derek. Nothing Like You is a rangy, long-striding filly. Her morning works are moderate and quicker than her stablemate, Grazia. Contender. | By Malibu Moon, Nothing Like You got off to a slow start for trainer Bob Baffert, taking four starts to break her maiden. When she finally put it all together, she reeled off two straight victories. She went gate to wire in a one-mile, $61,000 maiden event at Santa Anita, besting runner-up Great Forty Eight by 6 1/2 lengths. Last out she won the seven-furlong, $100,000 Desi Arnaz by a nose. She posted back to back, career-best efforts in those two races, earning a 90 Equibase Speed Figure when breaking her maiden and then improving that to a 93 in the Desi Arnaz. Baffert’s current go-to rider J.J. Hernandez has the call. Based on her past performances, she is one that prefers distance. Contender. |
| 2. Pacific Rose (15-1) | |
| Pacific Rose is searching for a herd of fillies to conquer. The maiden’s best effort was in the 1 1/16-mile Chandelier (G2), where she tailgated the early pace while being held hard. She made a mild bid in the stretch and made up a little ground but finished 3 1/2 lengths behind the winner Chatalas. The Doug O’Neill trainee had an excuse in her last, a one-mile, maiden event against Great Forty Eight and Flynn's Chance. Pacific Rose bobbled slightly at the start, giving them a length advantage. She was pushed throughout but had to steady slightly at the seven-sixteenths marker and was going up and down in the stretch after chasing a fast pace. Great Forty Eight bested her by 13 lengths. Not This Time’s daughter is out of a Bernardini mare. Her second and third dams own black type. The 2019 champion sprinter Mitole and the always-game stakes veteran Hot Rod Charlie are distant relatives. Pacific Rose may improve with distance and appears one-paced. Pass. | By Not This Time, Pacific Rose is still a maiden after four starts. Doug O’Neill has tried this filly on turf, on dirt, in maiden company, in graded-stakes company, going short and going two turns. So far nothing has worked. Pacific Rose lost those four starts by a combined 29 3/4 lengths. Surprisingly, her best finish was in the Chandelier (G2), where she ran fourth, beaten by just 2 1/2 lengths by winner Chatalas. Last out in a one-mile, $61,000 maiden event at Del Mar, Pacific Rose was 13 1/2 lengths behind winner Great Forty Eight and 11 3/4 lengths behind third-place finisher Flynn’s Chance. Like Laurie pointed out, she did encounter trouble, but I doubt she was going to win that anyway. Joel Rosario replaces Mario Gutierrez and Ramon Vazquez, and he and O’Neill are 0-for-3 in the last year. Pass. |
| 3. Flynn's Chance (8-1) | |
| Flynn's Chance improved in her second start to place second to Great Forty Eight. The pair chased the runaway speed and passed the weary pacesetter, who staggered down the lane. Flynn’s Chance got a little leg weary in the final strides and finished third, bested by 1 3/4 lengths. Richard Mandella gave Flynn’s Chance a pair of moderate, unremarkable solo breezes to prep for the Starlet. By Medaglia d’Oro, Flynn’s Chance is a full to Las Virgenes (G3) heroine Moonlight d’Oro and a half to Grade 2-placed juvenile Olive Branch. Their dam is a full sister to Grade 2 winner Wilburn, and 2017 champion filly and Starlet winner Abel Tasman is a distant relative. Mandella generally places his charges where they have a chance to pick up a check. Flynn’s Chance should progress in her second start off the layoff and is worth a long-shot exotics risk. | By Medaglia d’Oro, Flynn’s Chance had the misfortune to debut against Tamara, ultimately finishing sixth, beaten by 15 lengths. Last out she pressed the pace from third before losing the place by a nose, finishing 1 3/4 lengths in third behind winner Great Forty Eight. Umberto Rispoli retains the mount for trainer Richard Mandella. Flynn’s Chances Equibase Speed Figures improved from a 64 in her debut to a 75 last out. If she continues to improve, she could certainly pick up a check. Exotics. |
| 4. Great Forty Eight (8-1) | |
| Great Forty Eight improved in every start until she found the winner’s circle in her fourth outing. She saw the tail end of Nothing Like You in two previous starts, including a 6 1/2-length dusting in Great Forty Eight’s second to last start. Constitution’s daughter is out of an Exchange Rate mare. Her dam is half to Grade 2 winner Ruby’s Reception, and distant relatives include Grade 1 heroine Union Strike and the hearty, graded-stakes winner Handsome Mike. Great Forty Eight’s post-race works are faster than before her maiden win, always a good sign. Worth a lower exotics look. | By Constitution, Great Forty Eight, like Nothing Like You, got off to a slow start, also taking four starts to get her picture taken. As Laurie already discussed, Great Forty Eight did finish behind Nothing Like You twice, but she did defeat Flynn’s Chance last out. According to Race Lens, Great Forty Eight’s best race by the numbers was the 6 1/2-length drubbing she took two starts back in which she earned a 79 Equibase Speed Figure. J.G. Torrealba retains the mount for trainer Tim Yakteen. Exotics. |
| 5. Chatalas (2-1) | |
| Chatalas has a distinct win-lose cycle. She captured the Chandelier (G2) in her second to last start by 1 1/2 lengths but was body-slammed at the start of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and finished a non-threatening ninth. Gun Runner’s daughter out of a winning Indian Charlie mare is the most accomplished runner in three generations of her female family. Mark Glatt worked Chatalas in company with the unraced She’s the Law for five furlongs. Wearing blinkers, Chatalas broke off several lengths behind and gradually wore her down in the stretch. Chatalas turns her head slightly outward when close to rivals. If the win-lose cycle continues, Chatalas could play the spoiler. Her Chandelier speed rating of 92 is the highest in the Starlet field, and her 90 late-pace figure is second only to Nothing Like You. Contender. | By Gun Runner, Chatalas either wins or loses by open lengths. In her two victories she won by a combined two lengths. In her losses, she finished a total of 30 lengths behind the winners. The Mark Glatt trainee earned a 91 Equibase speed figure in her debut and a 90 in the Chandelier (G2), figures bested by only Nothing Like You. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies fourth-place finisher Life Talk just wheeled back to win the Demoiselle (G2) last weekend, indicating that Breeders’ Cup alumna probably didn’t empty the tank last month. Antonio Fresu retains the mount for trainer Mark Glatt. Contender. |
| 6. Grazia (5-2) | |
| Grazia, considered the weaker of the Baffert entries, graduated at first asking over four rivals. Two of them placed next out. Grazia was pushed around the turn to put away a stubborn foe and then opened up while racing on the wrong lead and wavering down the lane. She switched leads several strides from the wire. Baffert’s charge earned an average 85 speed rating and an 81 late-pace figure. Uncle Mo’s daughter is half to Grade 3 placed turf sprinter Union Gables. Their dam is a multiple graded-placed sprinter. The distaff line is comprised of black-type earning sprinter-milers. Grazia worked five furlongs in 1:00.0 in a solo, pre-Starlet breeze without blinkers. She moved well under her own power, ears flickering, and changed leads when asked, finishing full of run. Contender. | By Uncle Mo, Grazia was a debut winner for trainer Bob Baffert. She was unveiled in a six-furlong, $61,000 maiden event at Del Mar, initially pressing the pace from second before taking over on the far turn and prevailing by 3 1/4-lengths with an Equibase Speed Figure of 89. Since that race was contested Nov. 12, only two of the four fillies she faced have made subsequent starts. However, they each ran second, with fourth-place finisher Girl of My Dreams losing by just a head next out. Flavien Prat takes over from Juan Hernandez. Contender. |
Final thoughts
Laurie
Bob Baffert got his picture taken in the Starlet winner’s circle seven of the last twelve years, including the last six editions.
Eight of 12 Starlet heroines captured their previous race, and the rest placed second or third. Only four didn’t compete in a stakes. When the track was switched back to dirt seven years ago, pacesetters-pressers won most of the races, and only two favorites didn’t finish in the top two spots.
The Desi Arnaz stakes is a key prep. Four of the last eight winners used it as a springboard to Starlet victory.
Baffert has an excellent shot to add a seventh straight Starlet victory to his résumé with Nothing Like You. She won the Desi Arnaz, is the most experienced in the field and owns the highest late-pace figure.
If Nothing Like You stubs a hoof, Chaltas could visit the winner’s circle. Grazia is a logical pick to complete the trio, but I’ll take a shot with Flynn’s Chance. She’s well-bred and should improve in her second start off the layoff.
Ashley: It’s difficult to completely discount most of this field as this is the time of year that we see many juveniles taking a step forward. Pacific Rose is the only one I completely tossed since she’s hardly been competitive in her career and already has shown an inability to beat half of this field.
The pace scenario for this edition of the Starlet will be interesting. None in this field has shown a need-the-lead indication, but there are a few that potentially could mix it up early. Nothing Like You and Chatalas have won in gate-to-wire fashion, and Grazia, Great Forty Eight and Flynn’s Chance have closely pressed the pace.
Baffert holds a nice duo in Desi Arnaz winner Nothing Like You and maiden winner Grazia. If you’re a superstitious type, Grazia enters the Starlet off a nearly identical résumé as last year’s winner Faiza. Both fillies debuted Nov. 12 in six-furlong events at Del Mar, and Faiza went on to win the Starlet by a head, improving her Equibase Speed Figures from an 84 to a 92. According to Race Lens, Baffert is a 30 percent winner and 63 percent in the money with sprint-to-route runners, an angle that applies to both Nothing Like You and Grazia.
Although Chatalas has won just 1 of 3 graded starts, she is the class of the field, having faced the best of the best last out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Last weekend Life Talk showed us that also-rans in the Breeders’ Cup can bounce back and win next out, and I’m looking for a similar performance from Chatalas.
SELECTIONS
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Nothing Like You (9-5) | 5. Chatalas (2-1) |
| 5. Chatalas (2-1) | 6. Grazia (5-2) |
| 3. Flynn’s Chance (8-1) | 1. Nothing Like You (9-5) |