Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Sorrento Stakes
Del Mar’s $200,000, Grade 3 Sorrento Stakes on Saturday attracted a field of eight potential stars. The race will be contested at six furlongs on the dirt. Kaleem Shah’s $750,000 2-year-old purchase Benedetta has been installed as the 2-1 morning line favorite with Bob Baffert’s Dua as the 5-2 second choice.
Also exiting the same maiden race as Dua are Feisty Mitole and Ur in Trouble, who finished fourth and second, respectively, in a race in which the top four fillies finished within a half-length of each other.
Since the inception of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in 1984, just five fillies have completed the Sorrento/Juvenile Fillies double: Brave Raj (1986), Phone Chatter (1993), Silverbulletday (1998), Tempera (2001) and Champagne Room (2016).
The Sorrento is the sixth race on Saturday’s 10-race card. Post time is 7:45 p.m. EDT.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast sort out the contenders from the pretenders.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Feisty Mitole (8-1) | |
| Feisty Mitole’s fourth-place finish in her debut was better than it looked on paper. She traveled four to five wide the entire five furlongs. She vied down the lane with Dua and took the lead briefly but was passed late, missing victory by a half-length. Peter Miller gave Feisty Mitole two sharp breezes since, indicating she should be on her toes for the Sorrento. Freshman sire and sprint champ Mitole has 12 percent winners, with 50 percent in the money. None of his babies has won beyond five furlongs, but one placed at six furlongs. Feisty Mitole’s unraced dam is a half to a stakes-winning turf miler, Ex Pirate. Feisty Mitole should get a good trip from the rail. Exotics. | Feisty Mitole met Dua and Ur in Trouble in their very first outing and, along with Dua, was part of a four-filly duel from the outset of the five-furlong, $82K maiden event. While the two fillies credited with racing first and second in the early going faded to finish sixth and eighth, Dua went on to win the battle while Feisty Mitole was fourth, a half-length behind the winner and a nose shy of finishing in a triple dead heat for second involving Ur in Trouble. It was a good effort, one that can certainly be built upon, and she received an 81 Equibase speed figure for it. Since that race was just run on July 22, none in the field have started since. Trainer Peter Miller takes the blinkers off, an angle that nets him 15 percent winners (50 percent in the money) according to Race Lens. Use underneath. |
| 2. Dreamfyre (3-1) | |
| Dreamfyre ran them off their feet in Pleasanton’s Everett Nevin Stakes, graduating in her debut. The first stakes winner for freshman sire Flameaway, Dreamfyre set internal fractions of 21.77, 44.27 and 57.50 seconds and finished 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:04.51 on her own. Dreamfyre hails from a precocious female family. Half-sister Nasreeddine placed in the Starlet (G1), and their dam Appreciating placed in the Natalma (G2). The family included Grade 1 winning turf mare Celestine and a pair of Grade 3 winning turf milers. Trainer O.J. Jauregui gave Dreamfyre a pre-race bullet three-furlong work at Del Mar. Contender. | A daughter of Flameaway, Dreamfyre debuted in the $75,000 Everett Nevin Stakes at Pleasanton for trainer O. J. Jauregui. The filly broke on top and never looked back, winning the 5 1/2-furlong event by 3 1/2-lengths. She set lightning-quick splits and earned a 90 Equibase speed figure. All the fillies in that field were already winners but none has started since. Dreamfyre put in a bullet three-furlong work on Aug. 7 over the Del Mar oval after previously logging a couple easy four- and five-furlong works. Trainer Jauregui is 18 percent (53 percent in the money) with runners off a one to two month layoff, 16 percent (42 percent in the money) with 2-year-olds and 18 percent (54 percent in the money) at this distance/surface. Jockey Berrios has been winning at a 19 percent clip (just 33 percent in the money) over the last 30 days. Contender. |
| 3. Dua (5-2) | |
| In her debut, Dua fought gamely between horses the entire way with three other fillies. The Baffert trainee put away Feisty Mitole and held on by a half-length over the closing Hope Road and Ur in Trouble, who finished in a dead heat for second. Arrogate’s daughter completed five furlongs in a sharp 58.50 seconds. Dua had a pre-race five-furlong breeze in 50.50 seconds when paired with the expensive, well-bred unraced colt Point Dume. Dua stayed a measured half-length behind, wanted to move away from the colt, but to her credit, surged forward at the wire and eventually galloped out in front. Dua is a half to multiple stakes-winning sprinter/miler Gray Attempt, and her extended family includes multiple graded turf sprinter/milers Street Sounds and Tower of Texas. Contender. | A daughter of the brilliant Arrogate, Dua bested Feisty Mitole and Ur in Trouble in their debut. She was part of that four-horse vanguard, putting away the three fillies on the lead with her while holding off the late rushes of Ur in Trouble and the third-place finisher. She earned an 82-speed figure. The filly is trained by none other than Bob Baffert and ridden by his go-to rider Juan Hernandez. Both are at the top of their game and winning together at a 34 percent clip (75 percent in the money). Contender. |
| 4. Vinos Angel (4-1) | |
| Vinos Angel outclassed a field of maidens at Pleasanton by 7 1/4 lengths, traveling 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:05.37 after running slower fractions than Dreamfyre. But Vinos Angel earned a higher Brisnet late pace figure, 85, the highest in this field. Trainer Tim McCanna gave Vinos Angel a second-to-last four-furlong bullet work in 47.00 seconds at Del Mar. By Champion Older Male Vino Rosso out of a Hard Spun daughter, Vinos Angel should appreciate extra distance. However, there’s little blacktype in her pedigree. Contender. | Vinos Angel debuted in a $26K maiden event at Pleasanton. The daughter of Vino Rosso won the 5 1/2-furlong race with ease, drawing off to a 7 1/4-length victory. She received a 75 Equibase speed figure. None from that race has returned a winner, and it doesn’t seem like she beat much. Trainer Tim McCanna gets 21 percent winners (62 percent in the money) with the distance/surface. Joe Bravo hops on board for the first time, but he’s only landed in the money at a 24 percent clip over the last 30 days. Pass. |
| 5. Kythira (20-1) | |
| Kythira improved to win her second start by 1 1/4 lengths at Santa Anita. Four of her six rivals have returned, with one finishing second next out. The Ryan Hanson trainee was a little unfocused down the lane when asked to pass a rival, but once she figured it out, she got on track and surged forward. Since the race, Kythira has a consistent pattern of average works. Kantharos’ daughter is one of the best-bred fillies in the field, despite costing only $25,000 as a Keeneland yearling. Hailing from the distaff line of Better Than Honor (third dam), with many prestigious graded winners in the line, Kythira’s dam Cascading is a stakes-winning sprinter. Cascading’s three-quarter sister bore this year’s Belmont Stakes champ Arcangelo, and half-sister Streaming is a Grade 1 winner. Despite the wonderful bloodlines and a victory in her second start, Kythira’s speed ratings are low, and none of her competitors has returned to win. She’ll need to improve to be competitive in this spot. Pass. | Kythira was a well-beaten third on debut; the winner of that race was second in the Fasig-Tipton Debutante next out. In her subsequent start, Kythira returned a winner, beating a couple of the same fillies she faced in her debut. She was more forwardly placed in her second start and drove clear to win by 1 1/4 lengths. She received a 75 for that winning effort, 13 points higher than her debut race. Trainer Ryan Hanson is just 5 percent (40 percent in the money) in stakes races, and jockey Drayden Van Dyke has been on a cold streak in the last 30 days, going 0-for-21 and landing in the money at just a 29 percent clip. Pass. |
| 6. Motet (30-1) | |
| The unraced Motet is in an ambitious spot. A ninth foal, Mo Town’s daughter is a half to two stakes-winning turf sprinters. About 25 percent of her siblings won or placed in their debut, mainly on the lawn. According to Race Lens, Mo Town’s 2-year-old first-time dirt sprinters win 11 percent of the time and finish in the money in 38 percent of races. While the Ruben Gomez trainee posed three stamina breezes, she looks up against it. Pass. | Motet is a first-time starter for trainer Ruben Gomez. Gomez has only hit the board once with a first-time starter in the last five years (15 starts) and hasn’t hit the board in a stakes race (eight starts) in the same time frame. I do like that this Mo Town filly enters off three straight works at five and six furlongs, but that’s about it. Pass. |
| 7. Ur in Trouble (6-1) | |
| In her debut, Ur in Trouble closed to dead heat for second behind Dua, traveling her final furlong in 12.53 seconds. The Doug O’Neil trainee returned with a four-furlong maintenance breeze. The daughter of leading freshman sire Maximus Mischief is a half to two stakes-placed sprinters and a minor stakes winner. Her extended family includes the hard-knocking multiple graded stakes winner Silver Goblin, who earned over $1 million the hard way in 26 starts. With plenty of speed in the race and extra real estate, Ur in Trouble should be able to pick them off in the stretch. Exotics. | Ur in Trouble found a bit of trouble in her debut, drifting around some and brushing with a rival in midstretch. Regardless, she straightened out and closed nicely to finish in a dead heat for second, 1/2 length behind winne Dua and a nose ahead of Feisty Mitole. She earned an 81-speed figure for the effort. She was a bit green but can improve going forward. Trainer Doug O’Neill is just 6 percent (33 percent in the money) in stakes races and 13 percent (38 percent in the money) with 2-year-olds. Jockey Antonio Fresu is just 11 percent (48 percent in the money) over the last 30 days. Use underneath. |
| 8. Benedetta (2-1) | |
| The most expensive filly in the race, purchased for $750,000 at the OBS March 2-year-old sale, Benedetta lived up to her hefty price tag with a three-length score in her debut at Los Alamitos. City of Light’s daughter never got out of first gear while setting fractions of 21.94 and 45.47 seconds, and finishing up in 57.92. Three rivals returned with next-out wins and a third-place finisher. Simon Callaghan gave Benedetta a strong pre-race four-furlong breeze in 47.2 seconds. Benedetta is a half to multiple stakes-winning turf sprinter Jo Jo Air and stakes-placed turf sprinter Congo River. Her dam is half to multiple Grade 1 heroine Switch. Surprisingly, Benedetta received only a 77 Brisnet speed rating. Despite this, she must be considered a contender. | Benedetta was a $750,000 2-year-old purchase for owner Kaleem Shah and certainly ran like it for trainer Simon Callaghan in a 5-furlong, $45,000 maiden special weight event at Los Alamitos. The City of Light filly was bumped at the start but rushed up to take the lead, and it was never in doubt from there. She and Juan Hernandez were confident victors, winning by 3 lengths. She earned an 83 Equibase speed figure, and the runner-up was a next-out winner while dropping into maiden claiming company. Callaghan is currently 0 percent (27 percent in the money) with last race winners but is 22 percent (43 percent in the money) at this distance and surface. Since Hernandez will be aboard Dua, Victor Espinoza will take the reins. He’s won with two of five mounts in the last 10 days. Contender. |
Final Thoughts
Laurie: Speed rules the Sorrento; the last 12 winners either set or pressed the pace. Nine won their previous start, usually by three or more lengths, while those who didn’t win their last start placed second. Only five favorites won, with four finishing second or third.
The Sorrento is a tough race to handicap, so get out the darts. Most of the fillies fit the winning profile, so it’s a matter of who will progress in their next start. I like to see faster post-race works, which generally means the filly came out of the race on her toes.
Four fillies had quicker post-race works: Feisty Mitole, Dreamfyre, Vinos Angel and Benedetta. Dua had only one post-race work, a sub 1:00 breeze. While not a bullet, it was quick enough to include.
Ashley: As you would expect this early on in the careers of these 2-year-old fillies, there is a good bit of speed in the field. Dreamfyre looks to be the fleetest of them all. While she and Benedetta both threw down sub 22-second opening quarters in their respective debuts, Dreamfyre was slightly faster, posting a 21.77 split versus Benedetta’s 21.94.
Dua looks like a solid runner for Baffert, but the fact that the top four finished within a half-length of each other makes me question just how good she is. Benedetta obviously has class, but like Laurie, I like to play with fire. Dreamfyre, that is.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| No. 2 Dreamfyre (3-1) | No. 2 Dreamfyre (3-1) |
| No. 8 Benedetta (2-1) | No. 3 Dua (5-2) |
| No. 4 Vinos Angel (4-1) | No. 8 Benedetta (2-1) |
| No. 3 Dua (5-2) | No. 1 Feisty Mitole (8-1) |