Head to Head: Handicap the 2023 Smarty Jones

Laurie

Ashley

1.   C. J’s Storm (30-1)

The highlight of C. J's Storm's career was an eight-length victory against maidens in a one-mile maiden event at Horseshoe Indianapolis two starts ago. Otherwise, he has been whipped by a combined 29+ lengths in his five-race career. Pass.

C. J’s Storm made his first four starts in Indiana state-bred company and didn’t get his first win until his fourth start. Rather than racing off the pace, the son of Storm’s Eye went straight to the lead and never looked back, pulling away to win the mile event by 8-lengths. He tried open company here at Oaklawn last out, finishing eighth, beaten by 6 3/4 lengths, in a muddy rendition of the Advent. The gelding’s Brisnet speed ratings are well below average, with the 81 he earned in the Advent being his best to date. Pass.

2.   How Did He Do That (12-1)

How Did He Do That's two victories came in a high-level maiden claimer and the Zia Park Juvenile, both sprints. By Good Magic out of a half-sister to Belmont Stakes hero Afleet Alex, How Did He Do That has classic breeding and should improve with maturity and distance. After his initial victory, the Asmussen trainee settled into a win/lose pattern, although he gained ground in the Advent Stakes, a far-too-short 5 1/2 furlong contest. Worth a long-shot look since he's stretching out.

It took this son of Good Magic three attempts and a drop into claiming company, albeit a $150,000 maiden claimer, to get his first win. He was then 6th in the Clever Trevor, won the Zia Juvenile while being within 1/2 length of the lead at the half-mile call, and finished fifth in the Advent, ahead of C. J’s Storm. The colt does his best running on or closely pressing the lead. While How Did He Do That has yet to try a route distance, sire Good Magic was second in the 2018 Kentucky Derby (G1) and dam Stormin Maggy is a half-sister to 2005 Preakness (G1) and Belmont (G1) hero Afleet Alex. His Brisnet speed ratings are mediocre at best, but never underestimate Steve Asmussen at Oaklawn. Live long shot.

3.   Communication Memo (5-1)

Unsurprisingly, Communication Memo relayed his fondness for distance when stretching to a mile in his last start to win a maiden event by four lengths. He drifted out a little in response to the whip, but overall, it was a professional effort, and the Asmussen trainee should improve with the extra distance. By leading first crop sire Bolt d'Oro, Communication Memo is out of a daughter of Memorette, a hardy graded competitor in California. If Communication Memo inherited granddam's talent, he'll be one to watch. Note that he's off Lasix. Contender.

By bad boy Bolt d’Oro, Communication Memo finally got his picture taken in his fourth attempt, though he had never finished off the board prior to that. He was third behind Victory Formation in his second career start. His first three starts were all at 6 1/2 furlongs, and he finally got his first win when stretching out to a mile on the Oaklawn track, driving clear to win by 4-lengths. He wheels back off 2 1/2 weeks rest for Steve Asmussen. His Brisnet speed ratings have not improved much, but they have held steady in the lower to mid-80’s. Contender.

4.   Western Ghent (30-1)

Western Ghent won a $75,000 maiden claimer in August and managed a very distant third in an optional claimer in October. After that, however, American Pharoah's son was severely beaten in the Hopeful (33 lengths), Street Sense (41 lengths), and Kentucky Jockey Club (29 lengths). This is Western Ghent's ninth race in six months. So why is the racing secretary allowing him to run in a stakes? Enough already. Pass.

Western Ghent has just one victory in 8 career starts and has only hit the board one other time. In competing in the Hopeful (G1), the Street Sense (G3), and the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), he was beaten by an astounding 103 lengths. His best Brisnet speed rating is the 76 he earned in breaking his maiden. Pass.

5.   Ten Days Later (7-2)

Ten Days Later broke through the "third-itis" form and won the second time around two turns. He returned to finish third (again!) to just miss against allowance types. The Ken McPeek trainee recorded a career-best 91 Brisnet speed rating. It's an eleven-point jump from Ten Days Later's previous effort, but sometimes these babies improve rapidly. Contender.

While Ten Days Later has just one win, he’s only finished off the board once in five starts. In his debut, he finished third to How Did He Do That’s fourth. In his most recent race, this son of Collected finished a furiously closing third, beaten for it all by just 3/4 length and earning a career-best 91 Brisnet speed rating. Second dam My Baby Baby was a Grade 3 winner and multiple graded-stakes placed. Trainer Kenny McPeek has a 20 percent success rate in non-graded stakes. Contender.

6.   Denington (4-1)

Denington has a good/bad cycle, but his last effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club wasn't that bad. He had to take up slightly in a traffic jam around the first turn and was stuck in traffic for much of the race. After finding running room in mid-stretch, Gun Runner's son made up ground and was fifth in a blanket finish, beaten only 1 1/2 lengths. A clear trip could put him in the winner's circle. Contender.

Denington takes a class drop after finishing fifth, beaten by just 1 1/2 lengths in a blanket finish, in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last out. Of those top 5, only Hayes Strike has run again since, finishing fourth in the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds. Two rivals were graded stakes placed and a third was a graded stakes winner. Like Laurie pointed out, he does own a good/bad race cycle. Additionally, the 90 Brisnet speed rating he earned in breaking his maiden is one of the best numbers in the field. Like Ten Days Later, Denington hails from the Kenny McPeek barn, who is winning non-graded stakes races at a 20 percent clip. Contender.

7.   Angel of Empire (15-1)

Angel of Empire won two dirt races at  Horseshoe Indianapolis, but his speed ratings aren't all that, and the Smarty Jones is a class test. Additionally, he runs without Lasix for the first time. Maybe include in the exotics if you're playing the field because of the Cox/Talamo connection, but I'll pass.

Brad Cox ships in Angel of Empire, who is undefeated on the dirt, albeit in Indiana. Cox tried this son of Classic Empire on the turf in his second start but switched him back to the dirt after a sixth-place finish. In a show of versatility, Angel of Empire has won both on a sloppy track and on a fast track. His Brisnet speed ratings, however, leave much to be desired. With that said, Cox is winning non-graded stakes at a 23 percent clip, winning with shippers at a 27 percent clip, and at a 27 percent with last race winners. Do with that what you will. Pass.

8.   Victory Formation (6-5)

Victory Formation stretches out after two perfect scores. He handily beat Communication Memo and a next-out winner in his debut. The Brad Cox trainee owns the highest speed ratings in the field, and this son of Tapwrit is a half to multiple graded-placed Bellamore. Contender.

By Tapwrit, Victory Formation is undefeated in two career starts, both in sprints. Sire Tapwrit won the 2017 Belmont (G1) and Victory Formation’s half-sister Bellamore was recently third in the ten-furlong Rodeo Drive (G1). The colt owns the best speed ratings in the field with a 93 in his debut and a 95 last out in an optional claimer. This is a logical next step, and Victory Formation should be the overwhelming favorite. Along with the other stats on Cox, he is also winning at a 28 percent clip with first-time routers. Jockey Flavien Prat has also been hot recently. Win contender.

                Laurie

           Ashley

6. Denington (4-1)

6. Denington (4-1)

3. Communication Memo (5-1)

5. Ten Days Later (7-2)

8. Victory Formation (6-5)

8. Victory Formation (6-5)

2. How Did He Do That (12-1)

2. How Did He Do That (12-1)