Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Schuylerville

Ashley

Laurie

1.   Carmelina (5-1)

Carmelina looked good winning a maiden special weight with ease at Parx on June 18. She broke sharply from the inside, established the lead, and increased her advantage at each point of call to win by 5 3/4 lengths under mild urging as the tepid 5-2 favorite. She received an 82 Brisnet speed rating for the effort. None from that race have run back, so it’s tough to say who she beat. But this will be a step up in class regardless. She does get a jockey upgrade in Jose Ortiz. Trainer Robert Reid Jr. is winning at a 24 percent clip in stakes and at a 27 percent clip with 2-year-olds. Of the Reid duo, I certainly like this filly more, but this is a big step up in class. Use underneath.

Carmelina zipped out of the gate and played catch-me-if-you-can at Parx. They couldn’t, and she opened up by 5 3/4 lengths. Her post-race works are quicker than pre-race, which indicates that she might progress. By Remsen (G2) winner and first-crop sire Maximus Mischief, Carmelina is the first foal out of Complete St., a multiple stakes-winning turf mare. Maximus Mischief has one unplaced runner on mud. Reid doesn’t ship his babies to Saratoga for the fun of it; over the last five years, his 2-year-olds making their second start at the track hit the board 71 percent of the time, including Vequist and Morning Matcha. Exotics.

2.   Becky’s Joker (15-1)

Becky’s Joker is a first-time starter for trainer Gary Contessa. Sire Practical Joker throws first-time winners at a 16 percent clip, but Contessa is winning at only an 11 percent rate with the same angle. I do like her patterns of works, though. Contessa drilled her in four straight five- and sox-furlong moves before sending her out for a pre-race three-furlong bullet on July 7. Javier Castellano will be in the irons and lands in the money at a 51 percent rate in dirt sprints. This filly is well-bred for the conditions, something Laurie will go into more detail on, and could be a big player despite her inexperience. Contender.

Becky's Joker gives up valuable experience and faces winners in her debut. By the No. 2 second crop sire Practical Joke, Becky's Joker is the first foal out of an unraced half-sister to multiple graded-winning sprinter Vertical Oak. Practical Joke’s 2-year-olds have an excellent 22 percent win rate, 41 percent in the money, on mud. The Gary Contessa trainee should be plenty fit for her debut, she’s had four five- and six-furlong breezes, and her pre-race work was a bullet three-furlong “lung opener” for speed. She’s worth a long-shot look for her mud pedigree and breeze pattern if you like playing the long shots, but I’m passing.

3.   Union Suit (20-1)

Union Suit debuted in a 4 1/2-furlong event at Horseshoe Indianapolis under the tutelage of Rey Hernandez. She led throughout and was never seriously threatened, winning by 1 1/2 lengths with a Brisnet speed rating of 67. The third-place finisher Lucky Lesson and the sixth-place finisher Designated both won two starts later when switched to turf. Union Suit was then transferred to Graham Motion and tried stakes company in her second outing, the 5 1/2-furlong Astoria at Belmont. She once again established the lead from the break, but this time had no answer for Closing Act in the stretch, though she continued on to finish a clear second. Jockey Manny Franco is quite adept in sprints, but Union Suit just hasn’t put up good numbers in her two starts. Pass.

After drawing away from the field by 1 1/2 lengths at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Union Suit shipped to Belmont for the Astoria Stakes. She zipped out of the gate and carried the field through moderate fractions, but the Graham Motion trainee noticeably tired in the stretch and had no answer when Closing Act galloped by. By Union Rags, Union Suit is the first foal out of a half-sister to graded-placed Wild Horses, Hashtag Bourbon and stakes-placed turf sprinter Waltzing with Blue. Union Rags has an average 16 percent rate with 2-year-old mud winners, and Union Suit had a moderate pre-race four-furlong work, which was slightly slower than pre-race works. There are others in here whom I like better. Pass.   

4.   Status Seeker (12-1)

Status Seeker was a debut winner for trainer Rudy Rodriguez in a five-furlong maiden special weight event at Belmont on June 2. With Joel Rosario aboard, the filly sat a couple of lengths off the pace, split rivals at the top of the stretch, and made one long drive to run down the pacesetter in the final strides for a half-length victory. She received a 76 Brisnet speed rating for the win. Runner-up Permed once again finished second as the favorite in her next outing. Trainer Rodriguez is not high profile in graded races and has been winning at only an 8 percent rate with second-time starters in the past year. Rosario does hit the board at a 55 percent rate with pace-pressers and a 50 percent clip in sprints. Use underneath.

Status Seeker graduated at first asking at Ellis Park, and the second-place finisher returned to finish second again. The Rudy Rodriguez filly was professional in her debut. She raced between horses and was in a little tight in the stretch, but the horses on either side moved sideways away from her, and she targeted and passed the pacesetter. Sire Upstart has an above-average 18 percent 2-year-old mud winners. Status Seeker is the fourth foal out of a half-sister to Rum Go, a graded-placed turf miler, and one of Status Seeker’s half-siblings has won on mud. 2-year-old champ Shanghai Bobby is a distant relative, and Status Seeker has Rasmussen Factor inbreeding (inbred to a superior mare within five generations through siblings) to Weekend Surprise through A.P. Indy and his half-brother Honor Grades. Status Seeker’s post-race works were slightly quicker than pre-race. Contender.

5.   Saratoga Secret (4-1)

As a daughter of Arrogate, Saratoga Secret is no secret, let alone at Saratoga. D. Wayne Lukas unveiled this filly in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park. She chased the leader from second, drew on even terms in the far turn, and hit the top of the lane as the new leader. She determinedly held the former pacesetter at bay through the stretch, finally drawing away in the final sixteenth to win by three lengths with a Brisnet speed rating of 78. Jockey Luis Saez remains aboard from the first start and is winning at a 21 percent clip in dirt sprints. Contender.

In her debut, the pretty gray daughter of Arrogate chased the pacesetter through the early stages of an Ellis Park maiden event. Saratoga Secret dueled through the lane but turned her head away from her stubborn foe and tried to move away. Luis Saez kept her to task, and the Wayne Lukas trainee continued forward to win by three lengths. None of her foes have returned to the track. Saratoga Secret is the first foal out of an unraced half-sister to Grade 3 winner Blended Citizen, Multiple Grade 1-placed Lookin at Lee, and Grade 1-placed Battlefield Angel. Arrogate has an above-average 17 percent winners and 50 percent in the money among his 2-year-old mud starters. Saratoga Secret had a sharp pre-race four-furlong breeze at Churchill. Exotics.

6.   Closing Act (10-1)

Closing Act did just that in her unveiling in 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs on May 11. With Tyler Gaffalione up, she sat back off a contested pace, tipped to the outside in the stretch and found her best stride late, surging to the lead in the shadow of the wire. She won by a neck and received a 76 speed rating. The runner-up and the fifth-place finisher both ran second in their next starts and none have won in any subsequent starts. Closing Act didn’t leave it so late in the Astoria, putting away Union Suit before they hit the sixteenth pole and drawing away. It goes without saying that trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Gaffalione are both very successful in their respective fields, but Closing Act’s speed rating dropped a few points in her second start. However, I think this race is going to set up for her pace-wise. Contender.

Astoria heroine Closing Act puts her perfect record on the line in the Schuylerville. The Steve Asmussen trainee chased the pace four wide in the Astoria. She effortlessly targeted and passed Union Suit and had her ears up as she passed under the wire 3 1/4 lengths in front. The blaze-faced daughter of Munnings is the fourth foal and first black-type earner out of a stakes-placed sprinter, and two of her half-siblings won on mud. Multiple graded winners McKracken, Four Graces and Grade 1 turf mare Mea Domina are distant relatives. Closing Act has Rasmussen Factor inbreeding to Lady Winborne through full sisters La Gueriere and Lady Lochinvar. Additionally, Munnings has 19 percent 2-year-old winners on mud. Asmussen gave Closing Act a quick pre-race three-furlong spin over Saratoga’s training track. Contender. 

7.   Wine On Tap (5-2)

Wine On Tap won at first asking for Todd Pletcher, taking a five-furlong maiden special weight by three lengths on June 18 at Belmont as the even-money favorite. With Irad Ortiz Jr. up, Wine On Tap broke sharply and took up the running in second, moved up to challenge the leader in the far turn, wrested away the lead at the eighth pole and drew away from there. She received a 79 Brisnet Speed Rating. Only one from the short field has made a subsequent start, and that was a fifth-place finish. Ortiz rode Closing Act in the Astoria but has opted to stick with this filly. Ortiz's and Pletcher’s records speak for themselves, and I say, “Yes, please!” to Wine On Tap.

Wine On Tap outclassed her rivals by three lengths in her debut at Belmont. The Todd Pletcher trainee tracked the pace from second and gradually wore down the tired pacesetter. The pretty gray daughter of Tapit needed encouragement to pass, but once clear, she opened up. Wine on Tap is the first foal to race out of a Grade 3 winner. Her sire has an incredible 26 percent 2-year-old winners on mud. Although she’s been training consistently at Saratoga, Pletcher sent Wine on Tap to Belmont for a pre-race, four-furlong work. Contender.

8.   Kiss for Luck (30-1)

Like stablemate Carmelina, Kiss for Luck enters off a winning effort in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Parx. With Paco Lopez up, the odds-on favorite was off a step slow then was rushed to the lead and ridden throughout, working hard for a 1 3/4-length victory. She earned just a 66 Brisnet Speed Rating. Runner-up Mii Amo, third-place finisher One Eyed Jackie and fourth-place finisher Betsy Is the Gal were a well-beaten fifth, sixth, and eighth respectively behind Carmelina next out. The other two starters from that field either have not made another start or were off the board in their next attempt. Carmelina herself was meant to race in this spot but was a vet scratch. Kendrick Carmouche replaces Lopez for this start. Considering that I’m not big on Carmelina and she spanked half the fillies Kiss for Luck worked so hard to beat, I have to pass.

Kiss for Luck scored in her May debut at Parx by 1 3/4 lengths but didn’t switch leads down the stretch, and a rival closed ground. None of her rivals hit the board in their next start. Accelerate’s daughter hopes to travel in the hoofprints of her older sisters, 2021 Schuylerville runner-up Mainstay, a winner on mud, and champion 2-year-old filly Vequist. Accelerate’s 2-year-olds win at 18 percent on mud, with 57 percent hitting the board. The Robert Reid Jr. trainee has a series of four-furlong works at Parx. Hard to say what she’ll do for an encore, but although Kiss for Luck has the class, she’ll have to step up the speed ratings, which are some of the lowest in the field. Mud might help. Pass.

9.   Dancing Diana (6-1)

Dancing Diana waltzed to a 7 1/2-length victory on debut, a five-furlong, maiden special weight at Delaware. The third choice in the field of four, Dancing Diana was sent hard by jockey Michael Sanchez, dueled briefly with the third-place finisher but was ultimately much the best. She received a field-best 84 Brisnet Speed Rating for her facile victory. None in the field have made subsequent starts. The Bolt d’Oro filly gets a huge jockey switch to John Velazquez, but trainer James Lawrence II has poor win stats with last-race maiden winners and in graded stakes. Though the filly seems in over her head, Velazquez in the irons could make a difference. Use underneath.

Dancing Diana bebopped her way to an eye-catching 7 1/2-length score in her debut at Delaware over three rivals. A rival tried to make a race of it early, but James Lawrence’s charge refused to be headed and simply opened up. The daughter of last year’s leading first-crop sire Bolt d’Oro is a first foal. Her second dam is stakes-placed, but the class is way back in this female family. Bolt d’Oro has only 10 percent 2-year-old winners on mud, but 50 percent hit the board. Dancing Diana had two moderate breezes to prep for the Schuylerville. Exotics.

10. Mila Junes (30-1)

Mila Junes sprung a huge 54-1 upset in her debut, a five-furlong maiden special weight at Monmouth on June 16. The daughter of Tapiture was bumped at the start when breaking toward the outside of the field and raced a few lengths off the lead in the early stages of the race. She rallied in about the three path and finally nabbed the lead deep inside the final sixteenth. She earned a 69 Brisnet Speed Rating over the wet fast track. Most in the field have not made starts since June 16, but of the three that have, only sixth-place finisher Lady d’Oro was a winner, though it’s worth noting that she took a slight class drop and switched to turf. Runner-up Bingo’s Girl also was in that turf race but did not finish because of falling over a downed rival. (Jockey Samy Camacho was injured but Bingo’s Girl escaped relatively unscathed.) Also running that day was last-place runner Byrd of Eden, who was not a part of the spill and finished fourth via DQ. Trainer Kent Sweezey is winning at just a 3 percent clip in graded stakes, and jockey Jose Gomez isn’t very successful with sprinters or runners who press the pace. Pass.

Mila Junes had a wide trip in her Delaware debut over a wet track. She chased the frontrunners, made a strong move around the turn, and was up to nab the prize by a half-length. The race contained a next-out winner. Tapiture’s daughter is the first foal out of an unraced half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter/miler Athena. The family includes Grade 1-winning sprinter Peeping Tom and multiple Grade 1-winning turf router, Beach Patrol. Trainer Kent Sweezey gave Mila Junes two pre-race maintenance breezes. Despite her victory, Mila James has low speed ratings, and her trainer’s charges generally regress in their next start. Pass.

11.                Sugar Treat (6-1)

Sugar Treat debuted on Gulfstream’s all-weather track on June 10 in a five-furlong maiden special weight. The Enticed filly broke well from the rail and raced covered up on the inside, was steadied and lost momentum before hooking to the outside and running down the pacesetter in the shadow of the wire. She earned a 70 Brisnet. Pacesetter and runner-up Escape Room was a next-out winner. The rest of the field either has not raced again or finished off the board. Jockey Flavien Prat replaces Edgar Perez for this start, but trainer Mark Casse has a poor all-weather-to-dirt record, winning at just a 9 percent clip. Use underneath.

Sugar Treat overcame trouble in her Gulfstream debut on the Tapeta. First, she was in tight on the rail, then had to steady, make her way to the outside and close wide around the turn. She took it all in stride, wearing down the pacesetter to win by a half-length. The runner-up returned to win by 3 1/2 lengths. The Mark Casse trainee returned with two moderate breezes. By first-crop sire Enticed, Sugar Treat is a half to two graded-placed sprinters, Bet on Mookie and Absolute Grit. None of Enticed’s babies have run on mud yet, but one of Sugar Treat’s brothers won on the surface. Contender.

                Ashley

           Laurie

#6 Closing Act (10-1)

#6 Closing Act (10-1)

#7 Wine On Tap (5-2)

#4 Status Seeker (12-1)

#2 Becky’s Joker (15-1)

#7 Wine On Tap (5-2)

#5 Saratoga Secret (4-1)

#1 Carmelina (5-1)