Head to Head: Handicapping Risen Star Stakes 2023

Laurie

Ashley

1. Quiet as Midnight (50-1)

Quiet as Midnight adds two furlongs after losing ground in 2 of 3 starts at seven furlongs. Not a ringing endorsement. He graduated by a nose at the $20,000 maiden-claiming level at Delta Downs, and his Brisnet speed ratings are low. Pass.

Quiet as Midnight never was a threat in his debut but won at second asking off the class drop. The Midnight Lute colt was most recently second in an allowance race. His best Brisnet Speed Rating was the 68 he received last out, and he never has raced beyond seven furlongs. Pass.

2. Single Ruler (30-1)

Single Ruler figured it out in his fifth start. He doesn’t own enough speed to stay close and generally winds up racing two to three wide and even wider around the turns. Empire Maker’s son should handle nine furlongs, but how fast can he run? Others I like better. Pass.

Single Ruler is a maiden winner who finally found the winner’s circle in his fifth and most recent start, receiving a career-best 90 Brisnet Speed Rating. Trainer Keith Desormeaux is winning at just a 4 percent clip in graded stakes, and jockey Jose Riquelme is winning at just an 8 percent rate. Pass.

3. Shaq Diesel (30-1)

Shaq Diesel motors to the Fair Grounds in search of a graded win. He’s on his fourth barn switch after poor performances in listed stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Renaldo Richards’s charge won handily at the $50,000 maiden-claiming and optional-claiming levels. Additionally, Khozan’s offspring are 0-for-5 at nine furlongs. Pass.

Shaq Diesel has barn-hopped numerous times in his seven-race career but has nabbed three victories, his most recent coming last out Jan. 28 in a one-mile-and-40-yard optional claimer at Tampa Bay Downs. The son of Khozan’s best speed rating was a 90 he earned in a seven-furlong optional claimer at Gulfstream Park on Oct. 30. Trainer Renaldo Richards is winning at a 27 percent clip with last race winners, and Shaq Diesel’s best class performance was a third in the Pasco behind Zydeceaux, who most recently was fifth in the Sam F. Davis (G3). Pass.

4. Determinedly (8-1)

With eight career starts, Determinedly is the most experienced in the field and has hit the board four times. He was a distant third in the Gun Runner Stakes and made the pace in his last start at 1 1/16 miles but was tiring near the wire, barely fending off Tapit’s Conquest and Silver Heist. His pedigree and speed ratings suggest this Mark Casse trainee may fare better as a sprinter-miler. Pass.

While Determinedly never has been worse than fourth, it did take the Cairo Prince colt six attempts to put everything together and land in the winner’s circle. Since getting that first win, Determinedly was third in the Gun Runner and won an optional claimer by a determined neck over Tapit’s Conquest and Silver Heist. Trained by Mark Casse, Determinedly earned a 94 Brisnet Speed Rating twice, once when second to eventual Southwest (G3) winner Arabian Knight and once breaking his maiden in the very next start. He earned a 93 for his last-out, gate-to-wire victory. Contender.

5. Harlocap (8-1)

Harlocap travels to the Big Easy and makes his first start for Steve Asmussen. Justify’s son graduated at third asking and first around two turns for Bob Baffert. He is out of an unraced, three-quarter sister to Pioneerof the Nile and should relish the extra distance. Contender.

Harlocap ran second in his first two races before finally breaking through with a win when stretching out to 1 1/16 miles. He received a 93 speed rating for his gate-to-wire effort. John Velazquez retains the mount despite the barn switch. Contender.

6. Angel of Empire (8-1)

Angel of Empire was outclassed by three lengths in the Smarty Jones Stakes, unable to make up ground on Victory Formation. However, it was three lengths back to the third-place finisher. Nevertheless, it was a reasonable effort in Angle of Empire’s first 3-year-old start, and he should improve in his second off the layoff for Brad Cox. The concern lies in Classic Empire’s son’s ability to handle nine furlongs. The stallion’s offspring are 1-for-7 at the distance, and Angel of Empire’s distaff line consists of sprinter-milers. Nevertheless, this colt has tactical speed, so an exotic placing isn’t out of the question. Exotics.

I didn’t like Angel of Empire in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park on New Year’s Day, but he greatly outran my expectations to nab second behind winner Victory Formation. Trainer Brad Cox is a high percentage type across all angles, and Luis Saez hops aboard for the first time. Together, Cox and Saez are winning at a 67 percent rate and in the money 100 percent. Exotics.

7. Sun Thunder (15-1)

Sun Thunder was powerful in his 9 1/4-length maiden win despite being ping-ponged around early in the race. He returned in the Southwest (G3) and improved to finish fourth over a sloppy track. By Into Mischief out of a Medaglia d'Oro mare, Sun Thunder should handle the extra distance, yet his speed ratings indicate a fairly once-paced type, and that pace is middling. Worth a look in exotics.

I tabbed Sun Thunder for exotics in the Southwest (G3), although I ultimately did not play him. The joke was on me as Sun Thunder completed the superfecta in his graded debut. With that said, he did run third behind Determinedly in his debut, and his speed rating dropped from his second start to his third start. Pass.

8. Tapit's Conquest (6-1)

In his first start of the year, Tapit’s Conquest slowly gained ground only to miss the victory by a neck to Determinedly. Visually, the finish looked like two exhausted horses going up and down. Although he’s by Tapit, the Brad Cox trainee’s female family consists of sprinter-miler types, including his dam’s half-sister, Grade 1 heroine My Conquestadory. If he improves on his previous effort and the pace is fast, Tapit’s Conquest could have a say in the race’s outcome. Note that Cox and jockey Florent Geroux teamed to win the last two editions of the Risen Star  Contender.

Tapit’s Conquest scratched out of the Lecomte and ran in an optional claimer on the same card, instead. After a tough trip, the son of Tapit came up just a neck short at the wire but galloped out in front of winner Determinedly. Like that rival, Tapit’s Conquest received a 93 Brisnet Speed Rating. Florent Geroux remains aboard for Brad Cox, and the two are winning together at a 47 percent clip and in the money 88 percent of the time. Cox also is sending out beaten favorites to victory at a 31 percent clip. Contender.

9. Curly Jack (8-1)

Curly Jack hit the board in 4 of 6 starts, three of them stakes, so he has some talent. He was part of the five-horse cavalry charge in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and slid up the rail to grab second place. He’ll benefit from a swift pace, but his overall speed ratings are average. In his favor, the Tom Amos trainee breezed a second-to-last bullet five furlongs. This one-run closer generally gets a piece of the pie, so Good Magic’s son should be included on your ticket. Exotics.

Iroquois (G3) winner Curly Jack enters off two straight losses, a fifth in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and a second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). The son of Good Magic will be making his 2023 debut in this spot and fired a five-furlong bullet on Feb. 2 in preparation for the unveiling. Edgar Morales, who was aboard for his last four starts, retains the mount for trainer Tom Amoss. Together they’re winning at a 33 percent clip with 73 percent in the money. Contender.

10. Two Phil's (8-1)

In his first start off the layoff, Two Phil's got a little leg weary in the stretch of the Lecomte (G3) and couldn’t stay with Instant Coffee. By Hard Spun out of a stakes-winning sprinter, Two Phil’s has a pedigree that is a blend of stamina and speed. He has tactical moves, and his speed ratings are improving. Additionally, the pre-race, five-furlong bullet work helps. Over the last three years, Larry Rivelli hit at 25 percent with wins and 50 percent in the money with 3-year-olds in their second starts on dirt off layoffs. Contender.

Two Phil’s made his 2023 debut in the Lecomte, where he ran second and earned a 93 Brisnet Speed Rating. Winner Instant Coffee did not return for the Risen Star. Two Phil’s boasts wins in the Shakespeare Juvenile and Street Sense (G3), where he also earned a 93 speed rating, making it two in a row. Trainer Larry Rivelli gets winners at a 32 percent rate second off the layoff, and Two Phil’s fired a five-furlong bullet Feb. 8. Contender.

11. Silver Heist (12-1)

Silver Heist is still figuring things out with only two starts under his girth. He graduated at first asking on talent, but next out the pretty, gray colt couldn’t keep a straight path down the stretch. He finished a length behind the more experienced Determinedly and three-quarters of a length behind Tapit’s Conquest. By Tapit out of an Unbridled’s Song mare, Silver Heist should physically handle the distance, but can he keep it together mentally? Exotics.

Silver Heist exits the same optional claimer as Determinedly and Tapit’s Conquest and was third behind those two by just a length, receiving a 92 Brisnet Speed Rating. That was quite a jump from the 79 he earned in his only other start. Considering the Whisper Hill homebred lost to two of my top picks last out, I have to pass.

12. Crupi (15-1)

Crupi is a troubled maiden. Last year he hit the gate, bobbled, stumbled, leaped and kicked his way through races. Despite this, he finished second or third every time. Curlin’s son started this year with a whimper, languishing over seven lengths behind the field. But the talent kicked in, and Crupi made a sneaky move up the rail to just miss victory again by a head. Despite not making it to the winner’s circle in five career starts, Crupi has experience at 1 1/8 miles. The Todd Pletcher trainee’s last performance was his best from a visual and speed rating standpoint. Can a maiden win a Grade 2 stakes? We’ll find out. Contender.

Although Crupi never has been worse than third in five career starts, he also has yet to break his maiden. He fell just a head shy last out in his best race to date, earning a 98 Brisnet Speed Rating. That 98 is the best dirt speed in the field, but you have to take it with a grain of salt, all things considered. Trainer Todd Pletcher is winning at a 25 percent clip with shippers and a 24 percent clip with runners second off the layoff. Since it is Pletcher, I would use underneath.

13. Victory Formation (3-1)

The undefeated Victory Formation faces his toughest test yet. The Smarty Jones Stakes winner does his best work as a pacesetter, so how far can he carry his speed? By a Belmont Stakes winner out of a Smart Strike daughter, I’d say pretty far. Contender.

Speedy Victory Formation is undefeated in three starts, including a gate-to-wire victory last out in the Smarty Jones. He earned an 89 speed rating for the Smarty Jones, six points lower than the 95 he received two starts back. With the connections of Cox and Prat to go along with the unblemished record, it’s easy to see why he is the favorite here. However, he will have his work cut out for him in attempting to cut across 12 paths to get good positioning at the break. Exotics.

14. Private Creed (12-1)

Private Creed has carved out a strong career as a turf sprinter-miler. He’s never finished off the board in six starts, five of them stakes, and has earned more than $600,000 for his connections. So this is a very odd spot for the Asmussen trainee. By Grade 2-winning sprinter Jimmy Creed out of a stakes-winning daughter of Sky Mesa, Private Creed’s pedigree is iffy for any distance past 1 1/16 miles. Asmussen wins with 18 percent of his charges switching from turf to dirt in their second start off a layoff. However, none won beyond one mile and 70 yards. Pass.

A son of Jimmy Creed, Private Creed will be making his dirt debut here in the Risen Star. The colt is a dual stakes winner on the lawn and was a close third in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, where he earned a 98 speed rating. Private Creed has solely sprinted with the exception of the Texas Turf Mile in which he lost by a head on Sam Houston’s soft lawn. I think Steve Asmussen is asking a bit much here. Pass.

                Laurie

           Ashley

  5. Harlocap (8-1)

  8. Tapit’s Conquest (6-1)

12. Crupi (15-1)

  4. Determinedly (8-1)

13. Victory Formation (3-1)

10. Two Phil’s (8-1)

  8. Tapit's Conquest (6-1)

  9. Curly Jack (8-1)