Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Malibu Stakes

Laurie

Ashley

1. Giant Mischief (5-1)

Giant Mischief showed promise earlier in the year but took a vacation until September when he easily bested an optional claiming field. The Brad Cox trainee was recently second in a seven-furlong optional claimer in a one-paced grinding effort and should improve in his second start off the layoff. He has hit the board in both starts at seven furlongs, so let’s see whether he has the class and speed to stay with the California contingent. Exotics.

By Into Mischief, lightly raced Giant Mischief has been out of the exacta only once in his career. That off-the-board placing came in the Rebel (G2), which incidentally is the only time he faced an off track. The colt is 2: 1-1-0 at the Malibu distance of seven furlongs and earned his top two Equibase speed figures at that distance: a 105 at Keeneland in his second start and a 103 last out at Churchill Downs. The Brad Cox trainee picks up one of Canada’s best jockeys in Kimura Kazushi, who once again is wintering in Southern California. Giant Mischief comes off Lasix for this start. Contender.

2. Fort Bragg (3-1)

Fort Bragg struggles to live up to his $700,000 price tag. The Baffert trainee needs to be on the lead after a half-mile or he doesn’t win. Tapit’s son breezed a pre-race bullet five furlongs in 59.20. The rider had a handful of horse through the stretch until Fort Bragg circled about seven wide around two unidentified horses. He hooked up with one in deep stretch and his rider tapped him on the shoulder, but he didn’t pass the other horse. Additionally, Fort Bragg was bested twice by stablemate Speed Boat Beach. Exotics.

By Tapit, Fort Bragg is a veteran of the Kentucky Derby trail though he did not compete in the run for the roses. After being well beaten in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1), the colt has since stuck to races at a mile or less. He has been in the trifecta in four of his last five starts, with his only off-the-board placing coming in the muddy and marred running of the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1). That also was his only attempt at seven furlongs, but he enters off a career- and field-best effort in a 6 1/2-furlong optional claimer. He received a 112 Equibase speed figure while facing older horses. At Santa Anita, he has compiled a record of 4: 1-1-1. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the call for Bob Baffert, and Fort Bragg also comes off Lasix. Exotics.

3. Speed Boat Beach (5-2)

Speed Boat Beach was revved up every step in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, setting blistering fractions of 21.99, 44.35 and 56.40 seconds before being overtaken in late stretch. Despite giving it his all, the Baffert trainee never faltered; he just wasn’t in the class of Elite Power. The beautiful dark brown, almost black son of Bayern had a pre-race solo five-furlong breeze in 59.80. The rider had a ton of horse early and was a statue down the lane. Contender.

By Bayern, Speed Boat Beach has been competitive on turf and dirt. In his last two starts, on dirt, he lost by a head to the older Dr. Schivel in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2) and was fourth, beaten by three lengths by winner Elite Power, in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1). He earned a 110 Equibase speed figure in the SA Sprint Championship and a career-best 111 at the Breeders’ Cup. The colt has never tried the seven-furlong distance and is 2: 0-1-0 at Santa Anita. The Bob Baffert trainee has previously bested Hejazi and Fort Bragg and will reunite with Flavien Prat. Contender.

4. Sharp Aza Tack (20-1)

Sharp Aza Tack hasn’t lived up to his name on turf, so Doug O’Neill hopes to hone Sharp Aza Tack’s speed on dirt. All three of Sharp Aza Tack’s half-siblings have won on dirt, but how will Sharp Aza Tack handle the kickback? This is a tough place to find out. Pass.

By Sharp Azteca, Sharp Aza Tack will be making his first dirt appearance after racing exclusively on the lawn in his first eight career starts. He began his career 3: 2-1-0, but beginning with last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, he tailed off, going 5: 0-0-1. Antonio Fresu hops aboard the colt for the first time for trainer Doug O’Neill, and they win together at a 20 percent clip, 49 percent in the money, according to Race Lens. Maybe the surface change will move Sharp Aza Tack up, but I’ll pass.

5. Damon's Mound (6-1)

Grade 2 winner Damon's Mound is hit or miss and recently missed as the favorite against lesser in the Steel Valley Sprint at Mahoning Valley. I don’t see him being competitive against the likes of Speed Boat Beach. Pass.

By Girvin, Damon’s Mound enters off three straight races at lower-level tracks. Three starts back he won the Robert Hilton Memorial at Charles Town and then won the Gallant Bob (G2) at Parx. Most recently he was second in the Steel Valley Sprint at Mahoning Valley. This will be the colt’s first start at Santa Anita, and he’s 2: 1-0-0 at the seven-furlong distance. Trainer Michelle Lovell is 17 percent, 33 percent in the money, in graded stakes but has never won a Grade 1 event. Pass

6. Matanzas Creek (15-1)

Named for a really good fishing spot in Fort Myers, Fla., Matanzas Creek bested four other maidens in his last start. Two rivals returned and hit the board in their next outing. Empire Maker’s son should love the extra distance, and although he’s in deep, who doesn’t love a long-shot wildcard? Plus, Mike Smith opted to ride, always a positive sign.

By Empire Maker, Matanzas Creek did not debut until Oct. 22 of this year. He was fifth and last on debut, and of the four rivals he faced, only two have raced since and only one eventually found the winner’s circle. He won his second start, beating just four rivals, none of whom have either raced or won since. The 94 Equibase speed figure he earned for his win is well below what he would need to run to compete with this group. Mike Smith replaces Ramon Vazquez for trainer Tim Yakteen. Matanzas Creek also comes off Lasix. Pass.

7. Hejazi (3-1)

The multimillion-dollar-priced Hejazi has won twice in his career, the last against optional claimers on Breeders’ Cup Friday, where he pressed a 21.66-second opening quarter, was even with the leader through a 44.17-second half, then found another gear, getting five furlongs in 56.42 seconds and completing six furlongs in 1:09.16, with a 12.74 final furlong. The Baffert trainee earned a career-best 103 speed rating for his efforts. Hejazi had a solo pre-race six-furlong breeze in 1:12.40 and did it effortlessly. So, will he turn in another remarkable performance or regress? He needs a Grade 1 win or placing to bolster his resume, so I expect we’ll see another considerable effort. Exotics.

By Bernardini, Hejazi hasn’t exactly lived up to his hefty price tag. He took four starts to break his maiden, though he did run third in the American Pharoah (G1) behind two of his stablemates. He was then fourth in the San Felipe (G2) and second in the Lafayette in the two starts immediately after breaking his maiden. Given a six-month break from the races, the colt returned a winner on Nov. 3 on the Breeders’ Cup undercard, trouncing an optional claiming field by 5 1/2 lengths. Owned by Zedan Racing, Hejazi is 4: 2-0-1 at Santa Anita and 1: 0-1-0 at the Malibu distance of seven furlongs. J. J. Hernandez retains the mount for Bob Baffert. Although it seems the colt has matured and Baffert is 27 percent, 58 percent in the money, with runners second off the layoff, Hejazi will be an exotics play for me.

8. Raise Cain (5-1)

Raise Cain is the Malibu’s only seven-furlong specialist, with two victories in as many starts. He’s been struggling at longer distances against Grade 3 types, so we need to weigh the pros and cons. Raise Cain can settle off a hot pace and come running at the end. I don’t see him winning, but he can pick up a check. Exotics.

By Violence, Raise Cain enters off a win in the seven-furlong Perryville Stakes at Keeneland. He earned a career-best 107 Equibase speed figure for his head victory in the race. That was a five-point improvement off his previous best figure two starts back when finishing fourth in the Oklahoma Derby (G3). Trained by Ben Colebrook, Raise Cain never has raced at Santa Anita but is 2-for-2 at the Malibu distance. But I don’t think he’s quite in the same league as some of the others in this field. Frankie Dettori picks up the mount for Colebrook. Use underneath.

                Laurie

           Ashley

3. Speed Boat Beach (5-2)

1. Giant Mischief (5-1)

8. Raise Cain (5-1)

3. Speed Boat Beach (5-2)

7. Hejazi (3-1)

2. Fort Bragg (3-1)

6. Matanzas Creek (15-1)

8. Raise Cain (5-1)