Head to Head: Handicapping Lecomte, a Kentucky Derby prep

Laurie

Ashley

1.   Echo Again (6-1)

Echo Again was invincible, winning his Saratoga debut by 6 3/4 lengths. However, he backpedaled in the Iroquois (G3) and Springboard Mile after contesting the pace. This half-brother to Pegasus Stakes winner Pneumatic and full to Ellis Park Juvenile stakes-placed Costa Terra physically resembles his damsire Tapit. Echo Again's stakes-placed dam is a full sister to Silverbulletday winner War Echo, and their half-brother, Grade 1-winning sprinter-miler Pyro, captured the 2008 Louisiana Derby (G2). He certainly has the class to win, but Echo Again must prove he's mentally capable of holding it together in a two-turn route. The $200,000 question is will we see a replay of speed-fade on the rail like the Springboard Mile, or will Gaffalione settle Echo Again behind the pace? Pass.

Echo Again looked like a rising star when cruising to a 6 3/4-length debut victory at Saratoga and earning a 99 Brisnet Speed Rating. However, he ran up the track in the Iroquois (G3) as the odds-on favorite. Steve Asmussen gave him a brief freshening and brought him back for the Springboard Mile last month, when he finished third. Asmussen is winning at a 19 percent clip with second-off-the-layoff types. If Echo Again can manage to stretch his speed out, he will be dangerous, but so far, he's only succeeded sprinting. He has the fastest dirt speed in the field, but again, that was in a sprint. The rail post is winning at a 19 percent clip, and that along with his early running style helps this colt’s chances. Use underneath.

2.   Denington (8-1)

Denington is the most experienced in the field with six starts under his girth. However, he has a pattern of finishing out of the money every other start. He made up ground in the Smarty Jones Stakes to finish a distant third. Kenny McPeek adds blinkers to Denington, however, the trainer has a 9 percent win rate over the last three years with the angle. Pass.

Hailing from the barn of Kenny McPeek, Denington’s only career win came in the slop at Churchill Downs. That was his fourth career attempt, and all his races have been at a mile or longer. After breaking his maiden, Denington was then fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) behind winner Instant Coffee and third in the Smarty Jones. Denington also finished behind Tapit’s Conquest in his third start. Denington’s best speed rating was the 90 he received when breaking his maiden. He will run with first-time blinkers. Use underneath.

3.   Bromley (5-1)

The promising Bromley gets a class test after defeating maidens and allowance types. Unfortunately, none of the horses he's defeated has returned to win, although a few hit the board in their next outing. Bromley's half-brother is a multiple stakes-placed turf miler. The son of Mastery hails from the female family of Distorted Humor. Bromley's speed ratings are a little low, but on the plus side he gets the services of Javier Castellano. Exotics.

By Mastery, Bromley is undefeated in two starts, both sprints. He won on debut at Churchill Downs on the dirt and then won his second start over Turfway’s all-weather track. His Brisnet Speed Ratings jumped from 80 to 86. Second dam Danzig’s Dreamer is a half-sister to Distorted Humor, and third dam Danzig’s Beauty is grade one placed. Trainer Paulo Lobo is winning at a 24 percent clip with shippers but has a dismal 12 percent success rate in graded stakes. Bromley does get a jockey upgrade with Javier Castellano hopping aboard for the first time. Use underneath.

4.   Confidence Game (8-1)

Confidence Game's only off-the-board finish was a fifth-place showing in the Iroquois (G3) after a wide trip. However, the Keith Desormeaux trainee's speed ratings improved in his last two starts, and he's bred to improve with maturity, being by Candy Ride out of Zenyatta's little sis Eblouissante. Desormeaux and Graham teamed to win last year's Lecomte with Call Me Midnight. Contender.

Regally bred Confidence Game, by Candy Ride out of Zenyatta’s half-sister Eblouissante, only has been off the board once in five career starts. That was a fifth-place finish in the Iroquois (G3). I picked him to hit the board in that race, but he faded in the stretch to be beaten 10 lengths. Since, he’s finished second and won an optional claimer, both at 1 1/16-mile. As Laurie pointed out, his speed ratings improved with each start post-Iroquois. Both career victories came when Confidence Game was able to set the pace, so look for jockey James Graham to hustle this colt out of the gate. Despite trainer Keith Desormeaux’s dismal record in graded stakes, I’m going to give Confidence Game another shot. Contender.

5.   Tapit’s Conquest (SCR)

6.   Itzos (SCR)

7.   Instant Coffee (5-2)

Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner Instant Coffee is the class of the field. The Brad Cox trainee recorded two triple-digit, late-pace speed ratings from Brisnet, and the only knock against him is that his overall speed numbers declined in each of his last three starts. But it's a new year, so we'll see if he's still the one to beat. Contender.

Also from the Brad Cox barn, Instant Coffee won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in his last start after finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) two starts back. His best Brisnet Speed Rating was the 90 he earned in his winning debut. He received an 88 for the Breeders’ Futurity and an 84 for the Kentucky Jockey Club. Luis Saez remains aboard, and Saez and Cox have been winning together at a 67 percent clip. He’s the class of the field, but he will still need to bring his A-plus game. Contender.

8.   Two Phil’s (4-1)

Two Phil's either wins big or is badly beaten. There's no in-between for this son of Hard Spun. He destroyed the Street Sense field by 5 1/4 lengths, and some nice runners returned to flatter him. Jace's Road won the Gun Runner Stakes next out by more than five lengths, and Hayes Strike was third in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Contender.

Two Phil’s enters off a victory in the mud in the Street Sense (G3) back on Oct. 30. He earned a career best 93 Brisnet Speed Rating, which also was the highest last-race speed rating in the field. He also had a maiden victory and a listed stakes victory. All his wins have been by open lengths, but when he loses he isn’t close to the front. For example, he finished seventh in the Breeders’ Futurity, beaten by 10 lengths. Jockey Jareth Loveberry has been very good recently, and trainer Larry Riveli is striking at 32 percent with runners coming in off a 46- to 90-day layoff. Contender.

                Laurie

           Ashley

#4 Confidence Game (8-1)

#4 Confidence Game (8-1)

#8 Two Phil’s (4-1)

#8 Two Phil’s (4-1)

#7 Instant Coffee (5-2)

#7 Instant Coffee (5-2)

#5 Tapit’s Conquest (SCR)

#2 Denington (8-1)