Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Jockey Club Gold Cup

Laurie

Ashley

1. Proxy, 2-1

The versatile Proxy can settle on or off the pace and win. Remarkably consistent, this Michael Stidham trainee has tossed only two clunkers this year. He had a mild excuse in the Stephen Foster, checking hard about a furlong out of the gate. Joel Rosario took Proxy to the far outside, and Tapit’s son lost enthusiasm and ground, finishing last. Proxy should improve in his third start off a layoff. The only knock against is that he hasn’t strung together back-to-back victories since he was two. Contender.

Proxy did something in the Monmouth Cup (G3) last out that he hadn’t done since he was a juvenile, namely go to the lead and wire the field. It was an excellent effort coming off an uncharacteristically poor outing in the Stephen Foster (G1) two starts back. Three starts back the son of Tapit ran a career-best race, winning the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) with a 113 Equibase Speed Figure. Trainer Michael Stidham is an 18 percent winner and 41 percent in the money in stakes races. Regular jockey Joel Rosario remains aboard. Contender.

2. Unbridled Bomber, 15-1

One thing about Unbridled Bomber. When he’s good, he’s very, very good. When he isn’t, well, he bombs. One thing’s for sure. The James Ryerson trainee doesn’t like Saratoga. He has finished out of the money all four times there. I’ll pass.

Unbridled Bomber hit the board in a graded stakes for the first time last out in the Suburban (G2), checking in 8 3/4 lengths behind winner Charge It. Prior to that he had gone 3: 0-0-0 in graded company, including 2: 0-0-0 in stakes company. According to Race Lens, trainer James Ryerson is 2-for-17 in graded stakes in the last five years and never has had a starter hit the board in a graded stakes at Saratoga. Pass.

3. Warrior Johny, 20-1

Warrior Johny likes Saratoga. Last August he outclassed allowance class runners by 8 1/2 lengths  after galloping along on the lead. The field included Unbridled Bomber. Trainer Philip Bauer is taking a big class leap with Warrior Johny, and I’m not 100 percent sure this son of Cairo Prince wants to travel 1 1/4 miles at this level. Pass.

Warrior Johny was third, six lengths behind Zozo last out in the $275,000 Hanshin at Ellis Park. The gelded son of Cairo Prince had a monster race at Saratoga last year. He wired a 1 1/8-mile, $115,000 nw1$x race, drawing away to hit the wire 8 1/2 lengths ahead of his nearest rival. He received a career-best 109 Equibase Speed Figure. Could a return to the scene of his best race improve his chances here? Against this field I’d say he could get a check. But not the winning check. Exotics.

4. Rattle N Roll, 9-5

Rattle N Roll rocked his way to three victories this year and missed a fourth by a half-length in the Stephen Foster. The Ken McPeek trainee has evolved into a remarkably consistent competitor at Grade 2 and 3 levels but seeks validation as an older horse as a Grade 1 winner. Yes, he won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at 2, beating a so-so crowd that produced one star in Classic Causeway. The caveat with Rattle N Roll is that he doesn’t perform well in his first start off the layoff. He’s been away for 63 days. Exotics.

Last out, multiple graded-stakes winner Rattle N Roll fell a half-length shy of earning his first top-level win in the Stephen Foster (G1) since winning the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) as a juvenile. He earned a career and field best 116 Equibase Speed Figure for the huge effort. The Connect colt never has tried 1 1/4 miles, but he does have a pair of wins going 1 3/16. Rattle N Roll’s last foray at the Spa ended with some coltish hijinks. He played bumper cars throughout and eventually bolted on the far turn and was pulled up. The Kenny McPeek trainee has the best late-pace figure in the field. Contender.

5. Clapton, 8-1

Clapton had no alibis in the Stephen Foster (G1) and finished a brokenhearted second, 4 3/4 lengths behind Charge It. Clapton was best of the rest, outpacing Unbridled Bomber by four lengths. He earned a career-best 104 Brisnet Speed Rating for the effort and perhaps, with the barn switch to Chad Summers, Clapton can grab the golden ring. Contender.

Clapton has had a good year so far, going 5: 1-1-3 with a win in the Ghostzapper (G3), a third in the Pimlico Special (G3) and a second in the Suburban (G2). Laurie indicated that he received a career-best 104 Brisnet Speed Rating for that race, but Equibase gave him a 102, his fourth best number for that system. Clapton will be making his first start for new trainer Chad Summers and will also get a major jockey upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr. According to Race Lens, Summers is 0-for-7 with runners first off a trainer switch over the last five years, but he does get them in the money 43 percent of the time. Summers is also just 1-for-13 in graded stakes over the same period with a 15 percent in-the-money rate. Pass.

6.  Tyson, 5-1

The lightly raced Tyson has knocked out the competition in all but one start, the Eclipse Stakes (G2). In that race the Josie Carroll trainee was unfocused between rivals in the stretch. After a belated lead change Tyson got back on track and closed to finish third, 3 1/2 lengths behind stablemate Treason. Tyson’s weak spot is that he never has competed on dirt, although he trained over it at Payson Park last year. However, Tapit’s pretty gray son should handle the surface. His dam is a full sister to Starlet (G1) heroine Streaming and is a half-sister to Arcangelo’s dam. An additional half-sister bore multiple graded winner Cezanne. Tyson’s third dam is the outstanding producer Better Than Honor, who bore Belmont Stakes champs Rags to Riches and Jazil. Contender.

As Laurie described, Tyson is regally bred for the dirt despite never having raced over the surface. Trainer Josie Carroll ships the son of Tapit in from Woodbine, where he’s made his last four starts after being transferred from Todd Pletcher’s care. Over the past five years Carroll has had a 22% all-weather-to-dirt success rate with a 56 percent in-the-money rate, according to Race Lens. Already a two-time graded-stakes winner, I doubt Tyson will need to savage a rival’s ear in order to have a shot. Contender.

7. Duke of Love, 15-1

Duke of Love adored the dirt in his first attempt over it in the West Virginia Governor’s Stakes (G3), winning by 1 3/4 lengths and earning a career-best Brisnet Speed Rating of 100. Tyson’s stablemate takes a large class leap, and his past performances are inconsistent. Duke of Love prefers to press the pace, and he should keep things honest on the front end, but I’m not enamored.  Pass.

Stablemate to Tyson, Duke of Love won last year’s Prince of Wales Stakes, the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. The Prince of Wales is contested on the dirt, meaning this Carroll trainee actually is proven on the surface while his stablemate is not. Duke of Love most recently won the West Virginia Governor’s Cup (G3), earning a career-best 97 Equibase Speed Figure. Of note is the fact this son of Cupid has just those two starts on traditional dirt, making him undefeated over the surface. His speed figures do not match with the best in this field, however, so for me, he’s a toss.

8. Bright Future, 6-1

The aptly monikered Bright Future finished off the board only once, placing a dull eighth, flattened by 43 lengths in the 1 1/2-mile Brooklyn (G2). Todd Pletcher dropped Bright Future into an optional claimer at Saratoga at 1 1/8 miles and was rewarded with a 4 3/4-length victory over the field’s most accomplished runner Speed Bias, who fought Rattle N Roll to a nose decision in the Pimlico Special and bested third-place Clapton by 4 1/4 lengths. Exotics.

It's tough to say what was the ultimate problem for Bright Future in the Brooklyn (G2). The colt was trying 1 1/2 miles for the first time after never having previously raced beyond a mile. He also was making his graded-stakes debut. As Laurie said, he did just convincingly beat Pimlico Special (G3) runner-up Speed Bias, an Uncle Mo colt who was seventh of eight in the Stephen Foster (G1) and has been unable to beat allowance company in his last two starts. However, a win at Saratoga always warrants bonus points, since it’s a track that runners often love or hate. Use underneath. 

Laurie

Ashley

6. Tyson, 5-1

4. Rattle N Roll, 9-5

5. Clapton, 8-1

6. Tyson, 5-1

1. Proxy, 2-1

1. Proxy, 2-1

8. Bright Future, 6-1

3. Warrior Johny, 20-1