Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Jim Dandy Stakes
Saratoga’s $500,000, Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes, carded at 1 1/8-mile for 3-year-olds drew only five entrants, largely because both the Curlin Stakes and Monmouth Park’s Haskell (G1) were run last weekend. Although the field is short on runners, it isn’t lacking in talent.
Todd Pletcher’s reigning 2-year-old champion Forte tops the field. He was the favorite for the Kentucky Derby, but his racing plans were derailed because of a bruised hoof. He ran a gallant second in the Belmont Stakes off a significant layoff and looks to improve here. The four rivals who stand between him and his third win of the year won’t go down willingly, however.
Ashley Tamulonis of From Coast to Coast and Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power dissect a tough field.
Post time for the Jim Dandy, the 10th race on the 12-race card, is about 5:45 p.m. EDT.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Disarm | |
| Disarm closed to grab fourth place in the Kentucky Derby, passing a faltering Hit Show and three lengths behind Angel of Empire. Then Steve Asmussen cut Disarm back to a 1 1/8 miles to beat Verifying by a half-length, earning a lifetime best 101 Brisnet Speed Rating. Disarm was flattered by Verifying’s next-out victory in the Indiana Derby (G3). Gun Runner’s son graduated at Saratoga last year by 6 1/4 lengths, so he likes the track and has tactical speed. If Forte stubs a hoof, Disarm could pull the upset. Exotics. | Disarm enters off his best career race, a determined victory in the Matt Winn (G3) in which he earned a career-best 104 Brisnet speed rating. Before that, he got up for fourth in the Kentucky Derby, the only time the Gun Runner colt has ever been out of the trifecta. His speed ratings have improved with every start except when he received back-to-back 91s in his second and third career starts. Last year Disarm was a romping winner over this track, winning a $105K, seven-furlong maiden race by 6 1/4 lengths. Steve Asmussen and Joel Rosario have been striking at a 33 percent rate together, and Asmussen is 18 percent with runners off a 46-90-day layoff. Use underneath. |
| 2. Forte | |
| After a two-month layoff, Forte finished a courageous second in the Belmont Stakes after being forced to skip the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Now Forte returns to the scene of the Hopeful Stakes, his first Grade 1 victory. Todd Pletcher outfits him with a new set of blinkers. According to Race Lens, Pletcher has a 20 percent win rate with horses wearing first-time blinkers off the layoff. Win contender. | It was a rollercoaster spring for Forte. After triumphs in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1), the reigning juvenile champion headed to Kentucky as the favorite for the run for the roses. A bruised foot derailed the Violence colt’s Triple Crown dreams, preventing him from running in the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness. Despite the 10-week layoff, he went favored in the Belmont, getting up for second despite the deck being stacked against him. By the numbers, it was his best career race; he earned a 109 Brisnet speed rating in defeat, giving him four straight races with triple-digit ratings. Forte has two races over this track, a fourth in the Sanford (G3) and a win in the Hopeful (G1), both juvenile races. Trainer Todd Pletcher feels like he lost focus in the Belmont and adds first-time blinkers for this race, an angle that produces 21 percent winners for him. With Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons, he’ll be hard to beat. Top choice. |
| 3. Hit Show | |
| Hit Show was in contention for an exotics award in the Kentucky Derby but hung like a cheap suit while being passed by Angel of Empire and Disarm, settling for fifth place. In the Belmont Stakes, the Brad Cox trainee had the same result, traveling in third much of the way before being passed by Forte and Tapit Trice. The cut in distance should help Hit Show, but he must prove he’s in the same league as Forte and Disarm. Hit Show is one-paced, so if he doesn’t have the lead in the stretch, he doesn’t win. Pass. | Hit Show began his career with strong backing, going to post as the favorite in his first five outings. In that time frame, he went 5: 3-1-0, missing his fourth win by just a nose when long shot Lord Miles nailed him in the Wood Memorial (G2). He gave a good accounting of himself in Kentucky, finishing fifth, skipped the Preakness and then finished a close fourth in a dead heat with Angel of Empire in the Belmont, where he earned a career-best 108 Brisnet Speed Rating. Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 23 percent rate with runners off a 46-90-day layoff. Jockey Luis Saez and Cox have been on fire recently, winning 4 of 5 starts together and finishing in the money in the fifth race. However, I think Hit Show is racing for third, at best. Pass. |
| 4. Saudi Crown | |
| Saudi Crown lost the Dwyer Stakes (G3) by a heartbreaking nose in his first try in stakes company. As the lone speed, this Brad Cox trainee has a chance to pull the upset, but there’s concern on how far he wants to run. Race Lens shows that none of Always Dreaming’s offspring have won beyond 1 1/16, and none of Saudi Crown’s siblings have won beyond a mile. Further, the Brad Cox trainee’s internal speed ratings show that he expends all of his energy in a race’s early stages, with poor late-pace ratings. In his final pre-race breeze, Saudi Crown worked in company with maiden winner Everso Mischievous, a son of Into Mischief, out of a graded winner. Saudi Crown was asked to track behind Everso Mischievous before drawing even. Saudi Crown briefly stuck a neck in front but backed off and finished up behind him. Everso Mischievous’s five-furlong time was slightly faster. I’m taking a stand against Saudi Crown. Pass. | Newcomer Saudi Crown one of three Cox entries. The son of Always Dreaming is a nose shy of being perfect in three starts, losing a close decision to Fort Bragg in the Dwyer (G3) last out. Saudi Crown ran a monster debut, earning a 101 Brisnet speed rating in a $100K maiden race at Keeneland in April. He then beat elders in his second start as the odds-on favorite. However, the best he beat in that field is stakes-winning sprinter Sweet Cherry Pie. Likewise, the best in the Dwyer aside from the top two is Grade 3 stakes-winning sprinter Joey Freshwater. Cox gets his picture taken at a 31 percent rate with second-time routers and has been winning at a 30 percent clip with jockey Florent Geroux. Like Laurie, I’m taking a stand against the third Cox entry. Pass. |
| Angel of Empire showed a new dimension in the Belmont Stakes. Previously a one-run closer, the Brad Cox trainee sat a couple of lengths off the lead in fourth place. Unfortunately, he stayed there the entire race and missed third place by 3/4 length, but he earned a lifetime-best 108 speed rating. Classic Empire’s son is 2-for-2 at 1 1/8 miles but doesn’t have gears like Forte. Exotics. | Angel of Empire burst onto the road to the Kentucky Derby with an upset victory in the Risen Star (G2) off a runner-up finish in the Smarty Jones. He followed that with a dominant win in the Arkansas Derby (G1), making him one of the buzz horses leading into May. The scratch of Forte made him the prohibitive favorite, and he was moving like a winner in the stretch of the Kentucky Derby until Mage got the jump on him. Still, Angel of Empire was gaining ground as the wire flashed with him in third. The Classic Empire colt ran another big race in New York, finishing in a dead heat for fourth with Hit Show in the Belmont. He had no excuses, with everyone getting a clean trip;. The three in front of him, including Forte who passed him in the stretch, were just better. The colt always shows up, but he’s going to need to do better here. Use underneath. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: In the last 12 years, four favorites won the Jim Dandy, and three each finished second and third. Seven pace pressers won and four closers got the job done, three in the last three years. Every field since 2014 has contained six or fewer horses.
With a 60 percent chance of scattered showers, who knows whether the track will be fast, good or sloppy?
Forte, Disarm, and Angel of Empire have won over sloppy tracks, so no questions there.
Saudi Crown’s sire Always Dreaming is an average mud sire (16 percent win), and one of Saudi Crown’s half-siblings tried the surface, placing fourth. Being on the lead shouldn’t affect him since he won’t have to deal with muddy kickback.
Hit Show’s sire Candy Ride is an excellent mud sire (22 percent win), and Hit Show’s dam was second over a good track, so he may handle the surface.
Surprisingly, all five colts are returning off a lifetime-best speed rating. So everyone has a chance of regression.
Forte is the most tenacious and talented colt in the field. His ratings are steady and consistent. Even if he regresses, he’s still head and withers above these, and it’s his race to lose.
Disarm’s ratings have improved in each start since February. He could continue to improve, but even if he regresses, he’s still competitive and should run his race.
Ditto for the consistent speed ratings of Angle of Empire.
Ashley: Quality over quantity is the official phrase of the 2023 Jim Dandy. Although running the Curlin Stakes, the Haskell and this race all within a week greatly detracted from what could have been a phenomenal field had the scheduling gods considered the betting public, it is hard to complain about a field that brings together a group that was very successful through the spring and early summer.
Saudi Crown will be the controlling speed here but is also the sole runner stretching out in distance. Angel of Empire, Forte and Hit Show all exit the 1 1/2-mile Belmont, and Disarm enters off a win at this distance at Ellis Park. This is an incredibly tough field to stretch out against, and considering what Saudi Crown has and has not previously faced, he is in deep water.
But the facts are simple. Forte has the hottest jockey in the country in Irad Ortiz Jr., is cutting back in distance, and is second off the layoff with room to improve. This is his race to lose, and everyone else is running for second.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| #2 Forte | #2 Forte |
| #1 Disarm | #5 Angel of Empire |
| #5 Angel of Empire | #1 Disarm |