Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Hopeful Stakes
Eleven 2-year-old colts line up to contest the $300,000, Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes on Monday, Saratoga’s closing day. The seven-furlong event attracted many familiar faces from the meet along with a pair of Bob Baffert shippers.
Last year’s Hopeful hero Forte doubled down on his win at Saratoga with a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) but since was disqualified from his Hopeful win becuase of a failed drug test. Forte also was named champion 2-year-old male. Before that, Shanghai Bobby was the last to complete the Hopeful/Breeders’ Cup Juvenile double.
Other notable Hopeful winners include Grade 1-winning sprinter Gunite, 2021 champion male sprinter Jackie’s Warrior and 2005 Preakness hero Afleet Alex.
The Hopeful is carded as race 10 of 11, with a 5:44 p.m. EDT post time.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast sift through the hopefuls for the winner.
| LAURIE | ASHLEY |
| 1. Just Steel (10-1) | |
| The third time was the charm for Just Steel. He dueled gamely throughout and held off Be You by a nose despite being crowded and bumped in an intimidation tactic by Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard Be You. The third-place finisher returned to win his next start. Justify’s son is out of an Australian Group 1 winner and is a half-brother to an Australian Group 1 winner and an Irish Group 3 winner. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee has a fast-slow pattern and recorded a four-furlong 47.80 breeze, the second best of the day. Just Steel earned a 97 Brisnet rating, one of the best in the field. However, he has a very up-and-down movement, and blinkers come off despite his win. Contender. | Just Steel took three attempts to break his maiden. In his debut, he was nowhere to be found. In his second start, and first at Saratoga, Just Steel chased Pirate all the way around the oval and couldn’t catch that foe no matter how hard he tried. The son of Justify finally graduated at third asking, dueling down the stretch to prevail over Be You by a hard-fought nose. He earned a field and career-best 99 Equibase speed figure. Joel Rosario, aboard for his last two starts, retains the mount for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. The Coach is only 5 percent, 30 percent in the money, in stakes races and 10 percent, 27% in the money, with 2-year-olds, but I think he has a good one with this son of Justify. Contender. |
| 2. Yo Yo Candy (20-1) | |
| Sanford Stakes hero Yo Yo Candy gets no respect. It’s true that Gold Sweep melted him by 10 lengths in the Tremont Stakes, but Yo Yo Candy returned the favor in the Sanford, besting his rival by 2 1/2 lengths. Yo Yo Candy’s half-sister Treble is graded-stakes placed, and their dam and second dam are multiple black-type earners. Danzing Candy’s son’s speed ratings are on the low side, but I’m kind of sweet on him. How often do you get a graded-stakes winner at 20-1 odds? Live long shot. | Yo Yo Candy debuted a winner for trainer Daniel Velazquez in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden event at Parx. He then tried in him in stakes company in Belmont’s Tremont where he nabbed third at 27-1 odds, 10 1/4lengths behind Gold Sweep. He turned the tables on that rival in the Sanford (G3), powering to a 2 1/4-length win at 46-1 odds with a career-best 81 Equibase speed figure; however, Gold Sweep had a valid excuse that day. Velazquez is 13 percent, 44 percent in the money, in all stakes over the last five years but is 50 percent, 100 percent in the money, in stakes in the last year, both starts with this Danzing Candy colt. This class of this race makes the Sanford field look like amateurs. Pass. |
| 3. Nutella Fella (30-1) | |
| Nutella Fella makes his first start for Gary Contessa after beating a salty group of maidens at Delaware Park. He tailgated the pace, then was yanked to the outside during the stretch drive. Runhappy’s son was a tad green but put away a tiring rival to win by 2 1/4 lengths. The race yielded a next-out winner and two runner-ups. Nutella Fella’s female family has multiple black-type earners, and his second dam is a half-sister to the dam of recent Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) hero Bright Future. Nutella Fella is taking a leap in company, and his speed ratings are average. Pass. | Nutella Fella debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong, maiden race at Delaware Park for trainer Richard Sillaman. The Runhappy colt was fractious in the gate, was bumped at the start and thus off slow, worked his way through traffic throughout the race, swung wide at the top of the lane and drove clear. It was an overall professional performance, but he earned just a 76 Equibase speed figure. Nutella Fella is now in the Gary Contessa barn, and Contessa is 0 percent, 100 percent in the money, with runners fresh off a trainer switch. Nutella Fella drilled back-to-back bullets, a seven-furlong stamina-building work followed by a three-furlong blowout most recently. Pass. |
| 4. Mission Beach (10-1) | |
| Mission Beach pressured the pacesetter Next Level throughout his debut and won by 1 1/4 lengths when Next Level failed to switch leads and tired. The jury’s still out on the quality of competition since two rivals who returned didn’t hit the board in their next start. The Bob Baffert trainee completed six furlongs in 1:10.63, with a final furlong in 12.43. By Curlin, Mission Beach is out of a stakes winner whose half-sister, Taris, is a Grade 1-winning sprinter. Taris bore Grade 3 winner King Fury. Mission Beach worked in company in his last two works. On Aug. 19, in company with the older allowance winner Tahoe Sunrise, Mission Beach stayed slightly behind his mate and wasn’t traveling as smoothly. He was scrubbed past the wire to keep up. His gate work was slightly better on Aug. 27, but he was a tick behind his mate Divino, an unraced 2-year-old son of Good Magic. Mission Beach has upright turfy action. Although talented, I don’t like the way he struggles on dirt. Pass. | Bob Baffert ships in two from the West Coast, the first of which is Mission Beach. A son of Curlin, Mission Beach won a six-furlong maiden event on debut, earning an 87 Equibase speed figure. As Laurie indicated, the two runners from that field that have made another start since that Aug. 5 race both were off the board next out. John Velazquez replaces Ramon Vazquez in the irons. It's hard to discount the other Baffert angle, but I’ll pass. |
| 5. Timberlake (4-1) | |
| In July, Timberlake dominated maidens at Ellis Park by 9 1/4 lengths, traveling seven furlongs in 1:23.38, with a final furlong in 13.04. The Brad Cox trainee posted early internal fractions of 22 and 45, then took his time as he strolled home much the best. The race produced two next-out winners and a trio of third-place finishers. A son of Into Mischief, Timberlake’s female family is filled with group stakes-winning turf routers. Cox gave Timberlake three sharp pre-race works over Saratoga’s training track for the Hopeful, including a second-to-last five-furlong bullet in 58.60. In his last two breezes, Timberlake worked with a maiden, tracking early, then passing in the stretch, the rider not moving a muscle. Despite the turfy pedigree, Timberlake moves like a dirt horse. Contender. | Timberlake was left to cry a river in his debut against Saratoga Special (G2) hero Rhyme Schemes, crossing the wire sixth, beaten by 14 3/4 lengths. The Into Mischief colt went straight to the lead in his second start, however, and said bye, bye, bye to his overmatched competition, drawing off to a facile 9 1/4-length victory. He earned a career-best 96 Equibase speed figure for the seven-furlong test. He is one of only two in the field to already attempt the Hopeful distance and has the superior speed figure by far. Both the runner-up and third-place finisher from that race were next-out winners, and another three colts from that field finished third in their next start. Florent Geroux retains the mount for trainer Brad Cox, and they win together at a 27 percent clip, 62 percent in the money. Contender. |
| 6. Gold Sweep (6-1) | |
| Gold Sweep won the Tremont Stakes by nine lengths over Yo Yo Candy, then finished second in the Sanford to that rival by 2 1/4 lengths. The Steve Asmussen trainee bobbled at the start, made a sustained six-wide move around the turn, then played bumper cars down the stretch while continuing to close. The experience showed that Speightstown’s son has tactical speed and gears. The Chestnut colt is a grandson of Canada champion 3-year-old filly Ginger Brew. Contender. | Gold Sweep has not been out of the exacta in three career starts, but he enters this spot off a stunning defeat at the hooves of huge long shot Yo Yo Candy last out in the Sanford. He had an excuse, though, as he stumbled badly at the break and was taken out of his preferred running style, being forced to close rather than be on the pace. A better break will certainly aid this son of Speightstown, but he will absolutely need to replicate the numbers he put up in the Tremont to have a shot against this group. Use underneath. |
| 7. Muth (5-2) | |
| Muth had no answer to stablemate Prince of Monaco in the six-furlong Best Pal (G2), finishing a distant second by 4 1/4 lengths and getting his final furlong in 13 seconds. Good Magic’s son doesn’t relax during a race; he’s all fight 100 percent of the time. That can tire a horse. I’m still not buying into the hype around Muth but have to respect the connections. Exotics. | Muth was completely untouched in his debut, getting away to a huge lead early and continuing to dominate down the lane, hitting the wire 8 3/4-lengths clear of the runner-up. Two from that race returned to hit the board next out, but there haven’t been any winners from that group yet. He was clearly no match for stablemate Prince of Monaco last out in the Best Pal (G3), and this seems to be a clear case of Baffert separating his best runners to ensure they get graded wins. He very rarely ships without winning, especially with this type of colt. Contender. |
| 8. Baytown Chatterbox (50-1) | |
| Baytown Chatterbox figured things out in his third start, although it was painful to watch, as the very green son of Street Sense wandered around in the stretch with no idea where he was going, all the while the jockey bouncing around, whipping and driving, and looking back. Trainer Paul McEntee outfitted Baytown Chatterbox with blinkers and was rewarded when the gelding shocked the Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes at 60-1. Baytown Chatterbox tracked the pace four and five wide and snuck by as the pacesetters were busy bouncing off each other. He completed seven furlongs in 1:25.21, with a pokey 13.74 final furlong. Baytown Chatterbox is out of a restricted stakes winner and carries the famed Claiborne bloodlines; his third dam is Preach, better known as Pulpit’s dam. Baytown Chatterbox might be a decent competitor when he grows up, but his speed ratings and performance need to improve to be competitive here. Pass. | Baytown Chatterbox was ambitiously placed in $92K maiden races for his first two starts and was never involved in either of them, jogging around the oval at the back of the field. Adding blinkers certainly helped, but Paul McEntee also shipped the Street Sense gelding from Kentucky to Indiana and dropped him into a $34K maiden race while also stretching him out to a mile. So yes, there were a lot of variables in that third start. But the real shocker was Baytown Chatterbox winning the Ellis Park Juvenile. He earned speed figures of 35 and 27 in his first two starts and a 47 when breaking his maiden, but he somehow vastly improved to receive a 70 Equibase speed figure for his Ellis Park Juvenile victory. McEntee has never had a starter hit the board in a graded stakes race. Pass. |
| 9. Valentine Candy (12-1) | |
| In his debut, Valentine Candy shot out of the gate like an arrow and poured on the speed, with fractions of 22.10, 45.94, 58.55, and a final time of 1:11.74, with a final furlong of 13.19. He was a bit leg-weary at the end but held off the competition by 3/4 length. The race yielded two next-out winners and a runner-up. The Steve Asmussen trainee had a second-to-last five-furlong 1:00.40 breeze in company with Gold Sweep. The pair moved as a team, but Gold Sweep stayed a head or neck in front the entire way. Justify’s son is out of Grade 1-placed juvenile Taste like Candy. I predict a speed-fade finish. Pass. | Valentine Candy was a gate-to-wire winner in a six-furlong maiden race here at Saratoga. He went off as the tepid 3-1 favorite, and as Laurie said, the wire came just soon enough for the Steve Asmussen trainee. He earned a 79 Equibase speed figure for that debut. Tyler Gaffalione replaces Ricardo Santana Jr., who does have not have a different mount in the race despite riding at Saratoga on Monday. Pass. |
| 10. Be You (9-2) | |
| Be You fought Just Steel to a nose decision in their debut. Irad Ortiz Jr. did some race riding, pushing Be You against Just Steel in an intimidation ploy, but Just Steel refused to yield. The Pletcher trainee Be You had a second-to-last breeze with Sapling winner Note. The pair traveled four furlongs in a moderate 50 seconds. It was a typical Pletcher work, with little separating the pair, and they moved evenly together. Be You’s full sister, American West, is a stakes-placed juvenile, and their dam is a stakes-winning half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Constitution. Contender. | Be You enters the Hopeful as a maiden, but he ran an excellent race in his debut, losing the decision by just a nose to Just Steel. With little separating them, Be You earned a co-field-best 99 Equibase speed figure. Irad Ortiz Jr. retains the mount for trainer Todd Pletcher, who is 0 percent, 56 percent in the money, with runners making their second career start in a Grade 1 race. Contender. |
| 11. Pirate (8-1) | |
| Pirate wired the field, including Just Steel, by three lengths to graduate at first asking. Just Steel returned to win, and two others placed in their next outing. Pirate worked hard, with upright movement and ears flat in his second-to-last breeze with the older, more relaxed maiden, Clever Forever. Pirate’s stablemate was the better of the two, getting over the ground easily while Pirate worked to stay with him. The cleverly monikered Pirate, by Omaha Beach out of Treasure, is a half-brother to Preakness champ National Treasure. Pirate’s speed ratings are some of the lowest in the field. He could improve off the effort, but I’ll pass. | Laurie summed up Pirate’s experience nicely. I will add that Irad Ortiz Jr. was aboard Pirate in his debut but will ride stablemate Be You in this race. Javier Castellano replaces Ortiz. This is an interesting case of who beat whom, though. Pirate easily dispatched Just Steel, but that one came back to beat Be You, who is the most respected on the morning line of the trio despite not having a win. Use underneath. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: Nine of the last 12 Hopeful Stakes heroes won their prep; only two were stakes. However, the three that didn’t win placed second or fourth in a stakes.
Only two favorites won, seven were runners-up, and one was third. Speed is key; 10 winners were pacesetters or pressers.
Two-year-olds without established form are like moody teenagers. One day, they look like the next Triple Crown winner; another day, they perform like they have a terrible hangover after a late night out.
So it’s vital to watch how they move in relation to other horses. Does the subject baby shy away, or do their rivals move out of the way when that baby passes? Does the subject baby stubbornly refuse to yield when challenged?
I was impressed by Just Steel when he battled Be You. The Lukas trainee is still learning, yet the urge to win is there. I think the rough riding tactic backfired with Be You. He was game in defeat and physically smaller than Just Steel.
Timberlake was eye-catching in his race and breeze, just full of talent. I’m eager to see how he’ll handle a challenge from classy rivals.
Gold Sweep overcame trouble in the Sanford Stakes and resolutely closed despite continuous bumping down the lane. He could win it with a good trip. His rival Yo Yo Candy is well-bred and improving.
I’m leaving Muth off my picks and might regret it. Yes, he’s fast, from the Baffert barn, and could regroup here and “rebreak” in the stretch as many of Baffert’s horses do, but he’ll have company on the front end.
Ashley: There are quite a few speed types lined up here. Starting at the rail and working your way out, you have Just Steel, Mission Beach, Timberlake, Muth, Valetine Candy and Pirate who all go for the front. Muth is the fleetest of the bunch and should be the pacesetter, but how he handles the deeper surface at Saratoga will be the key to his performance.
Like Laurie, I was impressed with Just Steel’s tenacity in fending off Be You’s challenge and Irad Ortiz Jr.’s aggressive riding techniques. The fact that he’s 10-1 on the morning line makes him especially enticing from a betting standpoint.
Timberlake exits two races that have produced numerous winners between them, including Saratoga Special (G2) hero Rhyme Schemes.
Muth would be the obvious choice considering his hefty purchase price and connections, but so far, the fields he has faced have not shown much by way of class. Laurie talked about the infamous Baffert “re-break,” but Saratoga is a more tiring track than those Muth has raced over out west. I’m going to use him to fill out my superfecta, but I believe the Saratoga runners have the edge in multiple ways.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 5. Timberlake (4-1) | 1. Just Steel (10-1) |
| 6. Gold Sweep (6-1) | 5. Timberlake (4-1) |
| 1. Just Steel (10-1) | 7. Muth (5-2) |
| 10. Be You (9-2) | 10. Be You (9-2) |