Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Demoiselle Stakes

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. Cozee Rags 30-1

Cozee Rags graduated at first asking against a suspect herd of maidens at Keeneland. The Brian Michael trainee completed her final furlong in a lackluster 13.34 seconds over a fast track. Cozee Rags did the typical regression in her next start, although she had a slight excuse, bumping at the start and checking off the pacesetter around the half-mile pole. She was behind a wall of horses rounding the far turn and, once clear, gradually gained ground on the second-place finisher but finished 11 lengths behind the winner. Thorpedo Anna, the winner, returned to place in the Golden Rod (G2). Union Rags’s daughter is out of Rosee is Cozee, a stakes-placed turf miler. According to RaceLens, none in her immediate family have won beyond sveen furlongs. Cozee Rags’s Brisnet ratings are the lowest in the  Demoiselle field. Pass.

By Union Rags, Cozee Rags debuted a winner for trainer Brian Michael in a seven-furlong maiden event at Keeneland. She beat a large field, and though none have from that field have returned winners, a couple of the fillies ran second in their next starts. Last out, Cozee Rags was third, beaten by next out Golden Rod (G2) runner-up Thorpedo Anna in a one-mile optional claimer. The daughter of Union Rags earned an 83 Equibase speed figure in her debut, but that number dropped to a 77 in her second start. Trainer Brian Michael has never had a graded-stakes winner. Jose Antonio Gomez takes over from Andres Calleja. Pass.

2. Dolomite 10-1

Dolomite moves into open company after conquering state-bred maidens by 6 1/2 lengths, getting her final furlong in a rock-solid 12.96. The race included a next-out winner and two runners-up. By the no. 12 third-crop sire Unified, Dolomite is the first foal out of Sunset Ridge, a stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles. The Chad Brown trainee has competitive speed ratings. Contender.

By Unified, Dolomite debuted second for trainer Chad Brown in a six-furlong maiden event at Saratoga. Winner My Mane Squeeze is now a stakes winner, and the fourth-place finisher is also now a winner. Dolomite won her second start, a seven-furlong, maiden event at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet, by 6 1/4 lengths. Her Equibase speed figure improved from a 78 to an 81. Both of those races were for New York-breds, so this will be Dolomite’s foray into open company. Manny Franco retains the mount for Brown, who is 31 percent, 58 percent in the money, with sprint-to-route runners. Use underneath.

3. Life Talk 8-5

The definitive class of the Demoiselle, Life Talk traveled three to four wide throughout the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies while chasing a quick pace. The Todd Pletcher trainee was able to challenge while rounding the turn but bumped with eventual third-place finisher Candied. The contact appeared to take some wind out of Life Talk’s sails, but she continued evenly to place fourth. By Gun Runner, Life Talk is the third foal out of a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Indian Firewater. Life Talk’s speed ratings have increased in each start, and although she must be considered, I wonder how much the Breeders’ Cup effort took out of her. Exotics.

By Gun Runner, Life Talk takes a drop in class after running fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, finishing 3 1/2 lengths behind winner Just F Y I. The 88 Equibase speed figure she earned for that effort is the best in the field for a route race. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Life Talk has only one win from four starts but is Grade 1 placed via a third in the Frizette two starts back. Regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. remains aboard. Contender.

4. Most of All 15-1

Most of All’s racing career was off to a slow start at Saratoga, but she put it all together when she switched to Aqueduct’s muddy surface. The Bill Mott trainee lived up to her illustrious breeding, dominating a maiden field by 10 lengths. Quality Road’s daughter is out of Grade 3-winning miler Indulgent. The mare is a half to multiple Grade 1 winner and sire Frosted. Most of All could follow in the hoofprints of former Mott fillies Lake Avenue, the 2019 Demoiselle heroine, and Millefeuille, the 2020 Demoiselle runner-up. Both returned in the Grade 2 event after their maiden victories. Most of All’s speed ratings improved in all three starts. Contender.

By Quality Road, Most of All finished last of nine in her debut, beaten 18 3/4 lengths by Alcibiades (G1) winner and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies third-place finisher Candied. Trainer Bill Mott tried the filly on turf for her second start, and she finished last of 10, beaten by 5 lengths, in the 1 1/16-mile affair. A few things changed in her third start. Junior Alvarado took over from Jose Lezcano, Most of All caught a sloppy, off-turf track, and she went to the lead rather than pressing the pace. The result was a 10 1/4-length victory in the mile race and an Equibase speed figure of 86, one of the best in the field. The Godolphin homebred will get another jockey change for the Demoiselle with Jose Ortiz up for the first time. Could be any kind. Use underneath.

5. Vino Rouge 8-1

Vino Rouge gave it her best shot in the Tempted Stakes, but the Tony Dutrow trainee was three wide most of the way in the one-mile event. She made a tepid move to grab the lead but was uneven and wandering down the stretch, shortening stride with each step, and had no answer to the winner, Shimmering Allure. By no. 2 first-crop sire Vino Rosso, Vino Rouge is a half to multiple Grade 3-placed Janis Joplin. Vino Rouge is bred to handle longer distances with maturity. She gets a new set of blinkers to help her keep a straight path, but her Brisnet speed ratings aren’t the highest. Pass.

By Vino Rosso, Vino Rouge debuted for trainer Anthony Dutrow in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race on the turf at Saratoga. She didn’t run badly, getting up for fourth, beaten just 3 3/4 lengths. Her second race came off the turf, and Vino Rouge won the mile race by a half-length, getting up late for the win. Dutrow kept her on dirt after that success for the Tempted Stakes resulting in a second-place finish, three lengths behind winner Shimmering Allure. Vino Rouge had the lead in the stretch but was easily passed by that rival. Dutrow adds blinkers for this start. According to Race Lens, he’s 0 percent with first-time blinkers and blinkers on but is in the money 100 percent of the time with both angles over the last year. Dylan Davis, who was aboard in the Tempted, retains the mount. Pass.

6. Caress 12-1

After besting maidens at Aqueduct, Caress took on winners in the six-furlong Smart Halo Stakes at Laurel. She was stuck in traffic the entire way and was flat through the stretch, finishing fourth. By no. 5 third-crop sire Connect, Caress is the third foal out of a Distorted Humor half-sister to Grade 1 winner and sire West Coast. Caress’s second dam is 2000 champion 2-year-old filly Caressing. Despite the lofty breeding, neither of Caress’s half-brothers own black type. One attempted 1 1/8 miles over the lawn and finished out of the money. Two of Connect’s offspring attempted 1 1/8 miles, and neither hit the board. Caress’s speed ratings are low, and I’m not fond of her chances. Pass.

By Connect, Caress debuted a winner for trainer George Weaver in a six-furlong maiden event at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet. None from that race have returned winners, but a couple hit the board in subsequent starts. In her second and most recent start, Caress was fourth in the $100,000 Smart Halo at Laurel, beaten by 4 1/2 lengths. That field contained three lower-level stakes winners. Caress’s speed figure dropped from a 75 on debut to a 73 in the Smart Halo. Javier Castellano, who was aboard in her debut, hops back in the irons. Pass.

7. Shimmering Allure 7-2

Shimmering Allure stormed down the lane in the Tempted Stakes and passed Vino Rouge like she was tied to the rail. The Ken McPeek trainee completed her final furlong in the one-mile event in a glittering 12.88 seconds. The first stakes winner by no. 7 first-crop sire Enticed, Shimmering Allure’s half-sister is stakes-placed Shimmering Dream, and half-brother Colonel Ted is Grade 3-placed. None of her half-siblings attempted 1 1/8 miles, but her sire Enticed is by Medaglia d'Oro and is Grade 1-placed at the distance. Shimmering Allure’s speed ratings are in the 80s, yet she has tactical speed and could surprise. Exotics.

With six starts under her girth already, this daughter of Enticed is one of the most experienced in the field. Trained by Kenny McPeek, Shimmering Allure was seventh on debut in a five-furlong, maiden event at Ellis Park. Since then, she’s been off the board only once, a fourth in the Alcibiades (G1). Sandwiched between her debut and the Alcibiades were three maiden races. She finished second in the first two, both six-furlong races, before finally getting the job done in a mile event at Churchill Downs. She most recently won the Tempted at Aqueduct, easily running by Vino Rouge and drawing clear. Shimmering Allure’s Equibase speed figures have steadily increased over her last couple of starts. Junior Alvarado, who was aboard in the Tempted, retains the mount. Contender.

8. Ringy Dingy 8-1

After graduating in a sprint at Aqueduct, Ringy Dingy buzzed winners in the White Clay Creek Stakes at Delaware by 6 1/4 lengths. She didn’t beat much, but she traveled, stretched out and won by daylight after her maiden win, and many 2-year-olds fail at that task. The cleverly named Ringy Dingy by Dialed In is a full sister to multiple Grade 1 veteran Defunded. Three of Ringy Dingy’s four siblings won or placed multiple times at 1 1/8 miles. Ringy Dingy is worth a look or two. Exotics.  

By Dialed In, Ringy Dingy was fifth on debut for trainer Danny Gargan in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden event at Saratoga that included Life Talk in second and eventual Grade 1-placed Alys Beach. Given a couple of months between starts after scratching from two races, Ringy Dingy returned a winner in her second start, a 6 1/2-furlong event at the Belmont at Aqueduct meet. With Katie Davis taking over from Luis Saez, Ringy Dingy won by 1 3/4 lengths with an Equibase speed figure of 83. Last out, the filly won the White Clay Creek at Delaware Park, closing up the rail to go from last to first and drawing away to win by 6 1/4 lengths. Katie Davis will remain aboard for the Demoiselle; Davis has been on a cold streak, getting blanked in the last month, but she’s 2-for-2 with this filly. Contender.

9. Caldwell Luvs Gold 9-2

Caldwell Luvs Gold captured the six-furlong Seeking the Ante at Saratoga and had excuses in her next two starts. She was left with too much to do in the Joseph A. Gimma closing from last over a sloppy track and missing by 1 1/2 lengths. The Brad Cox trainee was stuck in traffic in the Maid of the Mist Stakes, bumped at the top of the stretch with Bernietakescharge, and used mental energy fighting to get by that one. Once she shook clear, Caldwell Luvs Gold surged forward, missing second place by a nose. By Goldencents, Caldwell Luvs Gold is out of a Quality Road mare. Her dam is half to multiple stakes-winning veteran Quindici Man and multiple stakes-placed Spurrier. 2015 Demoiselle heroine Lewis Bay is a distant relative. The Brad Cox trainee’s speed ratings are high, and her breeding indicates she can handle the distance. She owns the highest late-pace rating in the field. Contender.   

By Goldencents, Caldwell Luvs Gold started her career 2-for-2, including a victory in the Seeking the Ante in which she earned a career- and field-best 89 Equibase speed figure. She followed up those two victories with a second in the Joseph A. Gimma and a third in the Maid of the Mist. All four races were for New York-breds, meaning that like Dolomite, she’ll be making her first start in open company here. Caldwell Luvs Gold is trained by Brad Cox, and Luis Saez has the call for the first time. The filly previously was ridden by Florent Geroux in her first three starts and Manny Franco in her most recent. Both career losses came over the Aqueduct track, but the track was sealed both times, though it was labeled fast in the Maid of the Mist. Those races were also longer than the six furlongs of her first two races. Use underneath.

                Laurie

           Ashley

4. Most of All (15-1)

8. Ringy Dingy (8-1)

3. Life Talk (8-5)

3. Life Talk (8-5)

2. Dolomite (10-1)

7. Shimmering Allure (7-2)

9. Caldwell Luvs Gold (9-2)

2. Dolomite (10-1)