Head to Head: Handicapping the 2023 Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks

Laurie

Ashley

1. And Tell Me Nolies, 12-1

After going off form in the Kentucky Oaks and Summertime Oaks, Peter Miller shook things up for And Tell Me Nolies, giving her a shot on the turf in the one-mile San Clemente Stakes (G2). Arrogate’s daughter didn’t embarrass herself. She was stuck in traffic the entire way and still gained ground at the end, hinting that extra distance could help. Contender.

And Tell Me Nolies tried turf for the first time in her most recent start and turned in a career-best performance by the numbers. The Arrogate filly sat in mid-pack throughout, but when she was ready to make a bid, she got caught behind eventual winner Anisette. Once she had running room, And Tell Me Nolies re-rallied to finish third. She received a career-best 93 Equibase Speed Figure for the performance. The Peter Miller trainee has the tendency to find trouble, but she usually turns in a solid effort. Live long shot.

2. Window Shopping, 6-1

Window Shopping handily won the Summertime Oaks on dirt, so seeing her in the Del Mar Oaks for another shot on the lawn is a head-scratcher. According to Race Lens, her sire American Pharoah has 11 percent winners on the surface switch. One of Window Shopping’s half-siblings placed twice on the lawn. Otherwise, her female family is comprised of dirt sprinter-milers. Papa Mandella is a Hall of Fame trainer, so far be it from me to second-guess him. Exotic play.

Window Shopping debuted on the lawn for trainer Richard Mandella and found all the trouble. She was sandwiched at the start and then got caught in traffic, eventually getting sixth in a blanket finish. Broadway Girls, first in that race, was a stakes winner next out and is multiple graded-stakes placed now. Mandella switched her to dirt for her second start, and she ran away and hid from that field, winning by 16 1/2 lengths with a career-best 97 Equibase Speed Figure. She was then third in the Santa Anita Oaks (G1) behind Faiza and And Tell Me Nolies before winning the Summertime Oaks (G2) over a field that once again included And Tell Me Nolies. Mandella is a 13 percent winner and 47 percent in the money with dirt-to-turf runners. Exotics.

3. Infinite Diamond, 12-1

After bad beats in a pair of Grade 2s, the Davona Dale and Gulfstream Park Oaks, Infinite Diamond shipped to Del Mar for a shot at optional claimers on the lawn. Patrick Biancone’s charge was stuck in traffic down the stretch and found a hole late. She passed tired horses in grinder style to finish fourth by 1 1/2 lengths in a reasonable not spectacular effort. Mike Smith is an excellent dirt rider, but we don’t see him on the lawn very often. Pass.

A stakes winner on dirt, Infinite Diamond tried turf for the first time in her last race, finishing fourth in an optional claimer over this track, beaten by just 1 1/2 lengths. The Bee Jersey filly raced off the pace of the loose-on-the-lead pacesetter, attempted to make a bid in upper stretch and hit traffic and just missed the show once she gained running room. It was a very solid effort for a filly facing her elders for the first time while on a new surface. Winner Oakhurst is stakes placed, and runner-up Eddie’s New Dream is a multiple-stakes winner. Trainer Patrick Biancone is just an 8 percent winner and 23 percent in the money) in stakes races. Exotics, but not one of my top plays.

4. Ruby Nell, 6-1

There’s a lot to like about Ruby Nell. After knocking at the door in three maiden sprints, she graduated at a mile on the lawn and followed up with an easy, 2 1/2-length victory against optional claimers, with improving Brisnet Speed Ratings. By Bolt d’Oro, Ruby Nell’s female family includes stakes-winning turf miler and middle-distance mare Peach of a Gal and the old Maryland warrior Concealed Identity, a multiple stakes winner with 54 starts under his girth. Contender.

Ruby Nell debuted on turf, running second in a 6 1/2-furlong event at Santa Anita. Like with stablemate Window Shopping, Mandella then placed this filly on the dirt, where she ran second and then a well-beaten third. Mandella switched her back to the lawn for her fourth career start, and she responded with a win in a one-mile event. She followed that up with a smart score in a 1 1/16-mile optional claimer. With Edwin Maldonado up, Ruby Nell led from gate to wire and posted a career-best 94 Equibase Speed Figure, bettering the 88 she had earned two starts back. Four rivals from her most recent start are stakes winners or stakes and graded-stakes placed. Contender.

5. Anisette, 5-2

Anisette blew by And Tell Me Nolies in the San Clemente and beat a nice field, including Paris Secret, by 2 1/2 lengths, earning a 93 Brisnet rating in the process. The Leonard Powell trainee seeks her fourth straight victory, and she’ll be tough to beat. Contender.

Anisette has been undefeated since moving to the U.S. The Awtaad filly closed strongly to win her U.S. debut, a one-mile allowance, by three-quarters of a length after a slow start. She replicated that effort in the San Clemente (G2), winning by 2 1/2 lengths going away with a career-best 99 Equibase Speed Figure. Top selection.

6. Impact Warrior, 4-1

Impact Warrior looked good in her first start on American grass against optional claimers at Del Mar. She had to go wide and was cutting into the leader’s lead but ran out of real estate. The Phil D’Amato trainee earned the field’s highest Brisnet late-pace figure of 93. What’s concerning is her inconsistent good-race, bad-race form and whether she’ll continue it on this side of the pond. Exotics play.

Impact Warrior debuted in the U.S. on July 29 after winning just once in Ireland. With Kent Desormeaux in the irons, the Saxon Warrior filly stalked the pace, but winner Ultimate Hy got the jump on her, and Impact Warrior couldn’t run her down. She had to settle for second but earned a field-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure. Trainer Phil D’Amato is a 23 percent winner and 50 percent in the money in stakes races and a 28 percent winner and 69 percent in the money with runners second off a two- to six-month layoff. Contender.

7. Big Pond, 8-1

Big Pond is undefeated in two dirt starts and handed Ceiling Crusher a stunning defeat in the restricted Fleet Treat Stakes. The previously undefeated Ceiling Crusher won her previous two starts against state-bred stakes horses by a combined 32 lengths. Big Pond has a turf router pedigree. By Mr. Big, a son of Dynaformer, Big Pond is out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Beside Still Water. The class skipped a generation in Big Pond’s female family and includes Worldly Ways, a multiple graded winner on turf and dirt, and a couple Grade 3 turf winners. Tim Yakteen gave the leggy filly a relaxed, four-furlong spin around Del Mar’s lawn in her last breeze. She moved smoothly and was alert. Exotics play.

Big Pond debuted a winner on June 16 in a six-furlong maiden event for trainer Tim Yakteen. For an encore the Mr. Big filly won the $175,000 Fleet Treat Stakes at seven furlongs. She earned identical 91 speed figures for both dirt races. This will be her first attempt on the lawn, and Yakteen is a 15 percent winner and 25 percent in the money with first-time turf starters. He wins 20 percent of the time and is 33 percent in the money with dirt-to-turf starters. He’s also a 24 percent winner and in the money 44 percent of the time with sprint-to-route runners. Use underneath.

8. Absolutely Zero, 50-1

Absolutely Zero has the makings of a live long shot. Hear me out. She showed talent as a young 2-year-old when she beat the boys in the five-furlong Fasig-Tipton Futurity in 59.09 seconds. For whatever reason the connections took her off the pace in her next three starts, and she absolutely hates dirt in her face. She was climbing in all three starts and wasn’t a happy camper. Her pedigree suggests she might want to be a turf filly. By Nyquist, who gets a respectable 17 percent winners with progeny switching from dirt to turf, Absolutely Zero is the first foal out of How About Zero, a multiple stakes-winning turf miler, and that one’s full sister Don’t Sell is a stakes-winning turf sprinter. Doug O’Neil gave Absolutely Zero a pre-race, four-furlong spin on the turf in 49.2 seconds, the fourth best of 23. Long-shot exotic play.

In just looking at Absolutely Zero’s PPs, it looks as though she has, well, an absolutely zero shot here. In her last two starts alone, she lost by a combined 53 1/2 lengths, including finishing 25 lengths behind Big Pond in the Fleet Treat. Like Laurie indicated, the pedigree for the daughter of Nyquist’s indicates she could like the surface switch to turf. Trainer Doug O’Neill is a 15 percent winner and 37% in the money with first-time turf starters, 14 percent and 40 percent with turf-to-dirt runners and 19 percent and 45 percent with sprint-to-route runners, according the Race Lens. Laurie thinks she’s live, but I’ll pass.

9. Be Your Best, 4-1

Be Your Best loved Saratoga’s turf course last year and has been winless since. She closed steadily in the 1 1/8-mile Wonder Again (G2) and missed by a neck at Belmont Park but had an outside trip in the 1 1/4-mile Belmont Oaks (G1). Trainer Horacio De Paz gave Be Your Best a second-to-last, three-furlong bullet for speed. Rather than having a powerful kick, Be Your Best is a steady closer. Let’s see how she likes Del Mar. Exotics.

Be Your Best appeared to be at her best at the very beginning of her career and has tailed off since. She shares a field-best 100 speed figure, but she was ninth, beaten by 7 1/4 lengths, when she received that figure. Be Your Best showed a flash of her old form in the Wonder Again (G2), missing the win by just a neck, but she then came up empty in the Belmont Oaks (G1) after prompting the early pace. She could benefit from the cutback in distance and surprise at a price. Exotics.

10. Paris Secret, 15-1

Draw a line through the San Clemente Stakes. Paris Secret had an awful trip and had to check behind horses in the stretch. Here’s the secret to this filly. She or her jockey finds trouble. In the China Doll Stakes she was off slow and boxed in. She was too far back and encountered traffic in the Honeymoon Stakes. However, Paris Secret got a nice pace pressing trip in the Providencia (G3) and won. The Phil D’Amato filly likely will get a wide trip, and we’ll see if Joe Bravo can keep her out of trouble. Perhaps, but there are others I like more. Pass.

I think Laurie has summed up Paris Secret nicely. She has some talent, but a lot of that talent seems to be for finding trouble. Jockey Joe Bravo easily could keep her out of trouble with this outside post, if he’s willing to sacrifice some ground. Bravo and trainer D’Amato are winless in six starts together over the last year and have landed in the money at just a 17 percent clip. Pass.

Laurie

Ashley

5. Anisette (5-2)

4. Ruby Nell (6-1)

1. And Tell Me Nolies (12-1)

1. And Tell Me Nolies (12-1)

4. Ruby Nell (6-1)

5. Anisette (5-2)

8. Absolutely Zero (50-1)

6. Impact Warrior (4-1)