Head to Head: See 2 sides of the 2023 Del Mar Debutante
On closing weekend the Grade 1, $300,000 Del Mar Debutante attracted a full field of 14 juvenile fillies, led by the undefeated Sorrento Stakes (G3) heroine Dreamfyre. The race will be contested at 7 furlongs, a distance that none but one has yet been asked to race.
In a surprising twist for Southern California, none of the 14 fillies lined up for this event will be saddled by Bob Baffert. In a refreshing change from what we tend to see in California’s biggest races, we will instead get thirteen other trainers vying for the lion’s share of this $300,000 purse. Only Mike McCarthy has a stacked deck with two entrants, and we will also see the return of Mick Ruis, Sr. to graded competition.
Making her graded stakes debut is Tamara, the exciting daughter of multiple champion Beholder and last year’s leading Freshman Sire Bolt d’Oro. Tamara, who looks like a carbon copy of her dam, has been installed as the 7-2 morning line favorite.
The last filly to win the Del Mar Debutante and then go on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies was Songbird in 2015. Tamara’s dam Beholder lost a narrow decision to Executiveprivilege in the 2012 Debutante but turned the tables on that rival at the championships. Only Stardom Bound (2008), Sweet Catomine (2004), Halfbridled (2003), and Brave Raj (1986) have also completed this double.
The seven-furlong featured event is carded as race 10 of 11 with a post time of 9:00 PM EDT.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast judge the field and determine who will have a successful Grade 1 unveiling.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Julias Dream (5-1) | |
| Julias Dream graduated over Del Mar’s lawn in a swift 56.97 seconds, with a sharp 11.38 final furlong. She was about two seconds off the track record of 54.75 seconds set in 2006. She exploded out of the gate and was hand-ridden to a 5 1/2-length victory. The athletic filly cut the corner yet didn’t switch leads until mid-stretch. Flameaway, a son of Scat Daddy, is fourth by earnings on the first-crop sire list. Julias Dream’s half-sister is a stakes placed sprinter, and their dam is a full sister to Grade 2 winner Abby Girl. Julias Dream should handle dirt; her half-siblings are capable over every surface. The Michael McCarthy trainee recorded a strong post-race five-furlong move in 1:00.8, indicating the race took nothing out of her. In previous breezes at Santa Anita, Julias Dream displayed very quick action, yet she has excellent leg extension. Contender. | Julias Dream easily won her debut on August 6 for Michael McCarthy, covering the 5 furlongs on the turf in a fleet 56.97 seconds. She received an 87 Equibase speed figure. Only one filly from that field has made a subsequent start; the sixth-place finisher was third next out when switching to the dirt. McCarthy has won at a 23 percent clip (53 percent in the money) with runners switching from dirt to turf over the last 5 years. This isn’t my favorite angle, but like Laurie pointed out, Julias Dream’s pedigree does indicate that she should be just fine with the surface switch. Exotics. |
| 2. Next Right Thing (30-1) | |
| Next Right Thing was no match for Julias Dream, settling for third place, beaten a neck for second money. By Fast Anna, Next Right Thing is the first foal out of Grade 3-placed Darkwingsoverdubai. The second dam is a full sister to 2009 CCA Oaks (G1) heroine Funny Moon. Trainer Ryan Hanson gave Next Right Thing a pair of 5-furlong bullet moves as a Debutante tune-up. Next Right Thing received an 80 Brisnet speed rating and must improve to have a shot. Pass. | Next Right Thing, a hat tip to Frozen II (Right? Please tell me I'm right.), exits the same race as Julias Dream, where she was 5 3/4-lengths back in third. Her Equibase speed figure was 72, a full 15 points lower than Julias Dream’s figure. Trainer Ryan Hanson is just six percent (28 percent in the money) with turf-to-dirt runners and 14 percent (also 14 percent in the money) in graded stakes. Pass. |
| 3. Pretty Layla (30-1) | |
| In her second start, Pretty Layla switched to grass and stretched to a mile, which suited her since she rallied to finish second by 3/4 length. There’s little black type in the first few generations of Uncle Mo’s daughter. However, her second dam is a half-sister to the stalwart stallion, Distorted Humor. Pretty Layla is a second foal, and her half-brother hasn’t won but has placed at a mile and farther on dirt. I feel the shorter distance and her closing style will hinder the chances of the Mick Ruis, Sr. trainee. Pass. | Pretty Layla enters as a maiden having finished fifth in her debut, behind Hope Road who dead-heated for second, on the dirt and second last out on the turf. While her placing improved with the surface switch, her Equibase speed figure dropped from 75 to a 68. The Uncle Mo filly’s debut field has produced just one winner, and none from her second race have raced since. Trainer Mark Ruis, Sr. hasn’t had any graded stakes starters since 2018, with Bolt d’Oro the most notable of the quartet in his barn at the time. He also has not had a stakes runner since resuming training this year. Drayden Van Dyke will be the Uncle Mo filly’s third jockey in as many starts. Pass. |
| 4. Benedetta (10-1) | |
| Benedetta was best of the rest, finishing 3 1/2 lengths behind Dreamfyre in the Sorrento (G3). The Simon Callaghan trainee tried to challenge but was repelled in the lane. Her 86 Brisnet speed rating was an 11-point jump from her previous start, yet her late pace figure of 77 is one of the lowest in the field, plus her final furlong was 13.50 seconds. A daughter of second-crop sire City of Light, Benedetta is a half to multiple stakes-winning turf sprinter Jo Jo Air and stakes-placed turf sprinter Congo River. Her dam is half to multiple Grade 1-winning heroine Switch. Benedetta had a pre-race five-furlong solo work in 59.8 seconds. Although the rider sat chilly, Benedetta had her ears pinned the entire way and didn’t relax. The extra distance should help, but I’ll pass. | Benedetta went off as the 2-1 favorite in the Sorrento (G3) but was easily dispatched by Dreamfyre while chasing that one throughout. Her Equibase speed figure improved three points to 86 from her debut. Trainer Simon Callaghan removes the blinkers for this race, an angle that has resulted in one win and one place from five starters in the past year. Callaghan is also just six percent (47 percent in the money) in stakes races. Victor Espinoza retains the mount. Exotics. |
| 5. Hope Road (12-1) | |
| As the favorite in her second start, Hope Road gave it her best shot but yielded late to the class of Tamara, finishing 2 1/2 lengths behind her rival. It was a strong effort, and Hope Road was 5 1/2 lengths in front of the third-place finisher. The John Sadler trainee’s Brisnet speed rating of 88 improved, and her late pace rating of 88 is the third-highest in the Debutante field. Quality Road’s daughter is the first foal out of the Grade 1-winning sprinter Marley’s Freedom. Sadler gave Hope Road a stamina-building six-furlong work in 1:12.6. Exotics. | Hope Road finished in a dead heat for second in her debut after getting bumped at the start, having to go six wide off the turn, and then getting brushed in the stretch. She was rightly favored to win her second start but had the misfortune to run into Tamara, once again settling for second. While she closed from last in her debut, she set the pace in her second start. She received an 81 Equibase speed figure for her first start and a 91 last out. Trainer John Sadler is 12 percent (36 percent in the money) in stakes races. Tiago Josue Pereira replaces Hector Isaac Berrios, who was aboard for the filly’s last two starts; Berrios will be aboard Dreamfyre instead. Exotics. |
| 6. Chatalas (5-1) | |
| A wide, outside trip was no problem for Chatalas as she wore down the pace to win by a half-length. What impressed me was how she challenged a tiring Gate to Paradise; that one moved sideways away from her space while Chatalas took aim on the leader. Gun Runner’s daughter has little blacktype in her distaff line, just a couple of stakes-placed runners in three generations. Chatalas showed intelligence in her final breeze, a four-furlong move in 47.2 seconds. She galloped along and noticeably quickened in the final half furlong and through the wire when given the go ahead by her rider. She wasn’t bothered by horses galloping alongside, and the move hinted that she has gears. Contender. | Chatalas pressed the pace from third in her debut and got up in the shadow of the wire to prevail by 1/2 length. Gate to Paradise was 4 3/4 lengths back in third. None from the field that have made subsequent starts have won. Chatalas received a 91 Equibase speed figure. Trainer Mark Glatt is 15 percent (45 percent in the money) in graded stakes over the last 5 years according to Race Lens. Juan Hernandez retains the mount. Contender. |
| 7. Dreamfyre (4-1) | |
| The undefeated Dreamfyre drew away to win the Sorrento (G3) in her second start. The O. J. Jauregui trainee was never seriously challenged as she sped 6 furlongs in 1:10.52, with a 12.95-second final furlong. Her Brisnet speed rating improved nine points to 92, but her late pace figure of 82 after two triple-digit early and mid-figures shows she’s expending energy through mid-race. The $300,000 question is if she can carry her speed an extra furlong against other speed types. It’s hard to argue against perfection. Contender. | Laurie and I both gave out Dreamfyre as our top choice in the Sorrento (G3), and the Flameaway filly skipped home to 3 1/2-length victory as the 7-2 second choice. That field included Benedetta (runner-up) and Motet (fourth as the longest shot in the field). Before that, she beat colts in her career debut, the $75,000 Everett Nevin. She went gate-to-wire in both races, earning Equibase figures of 90 in the Everett Nevin and 93 in the Sorrento. Dreamfyre gave trainer O.J. Jauregui his first graded stakes win, and he has been in the money in graded stakes at a 50 percent clip over the last 5 years. Contender. |
| 8. Pushiness (8-1) | |
| Pushiness jumps from state-bred stakes to Grade 1 company for her third start. And why not? She won both starts by a combined 8 lengths, although her final times and speed ratings were low. Kantharos’s daughter is out of the stakes-placed turf router, Imperial Pippin, and her second dam is a Grade 2 winner. Trainer Michael McCarthy gave Pushiness a pair of five-furlong stamina-building works. Pushiness has enough early speed to make things interesting on the front end, but her low late-pace figures say she’ll be backing up when the actual running begins. Pass. | The second half of the Michael McCarthy duo, Pushiness is undefeated in two career starts, though as Laurie already stated, those were state-bred races. She earned an 89 Equibase speed figure for her debut win and a 90 for her victory last out in the $125,000 California Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association Stakes. From her debut race, the fifth-place finisher won two starts later. The CTBA Stakes runner-up was already a stakes winner, the third-place finisher won the $125,000 Generous Portion next out, and the fifth-place finisher placed third in the Generous Portion next out. Umberto Rispoli, who was aboard in her last race, will be in the irons again. Exotics. |
| 9. Tamara (7-2) | |
| Tamara was all class in her debut and looked just like her mom, Beholder, as she wore down the pacesetting Hope Road just before the wire. The Richard Mandella trainee earned a 91 Brisnet speed rating; her late-pace figure of 96 was higher than her early and mid-pace figures. The impressive thing was that the Bolt d’Oro filly stumbled at the break yet settled directly behind the pace before sliding to the outside for her run. Tamara posted a pre-race three-furlong bullet work in 34.8 seconds. She was relaxed throughout and pinned her ears briefly when asked to quicken, but once she did, those ears were flickering as she was within herself. Contender. | What do you get when you pair the hottest freshman sire from 2022 with a multiple-champion mare? Well, when it’s Bolt d’Oro and Beholder, you get the classy Tamara. She debuted for Richard Mandella, who also trained her dam, just three weeks ago. She stumbled out of the gate but collected herself and took up a nice stalking position. While she didn’t run right past Hope Road in the stretch, she did put her away and begin to draw off as they approached the wire. Tamara received a field-best 95 Equibase speed figure. Due no doubt to Tamara’s quick turnaround in this spot, none from that race have made subsequent starts. Mike Smith remains aboard for Mandella. Contender. |
| 10. Where's My Ring (15-1) | |
| Where's My Ring never got a breather in her 5 1/2-furlong debut. She broke okay but didn’t have enough speed to go with the leaders. Instead, she made a sustained drive from mid-pack. She looked like a leg-weary winner in the stretch until Laurent came from nowhere to nip Where's My Ring on the wire. The Val Brinkerhoff trainee earned a solid 80 Brisnet speed rating but must improve. Pass. | Where’s My Ring looked like she was going to pull a huge 36-1 upset in her debut but Laurent came from out of the clouds to steal the victory by a nose. The Twirling Candy filly received an 82 Equibase speed figure. Only the last three finishers from that field have made subsequent starts, and none of them won, though one hit the board when dropping into maiden claiming company. According to Race Lens, trainer Val Brinkerhoff is 1-for-20 in graded stakes with a 35 percent in-the-money rate over the last 5 years. Pass. |
| 11. Motet (50-1) | |
| Motet debuted against winners in the Sorrento Stakes. She ran as expected, finishing 11 lengths behind Dreamfyre. There’s nothing notable about her breeze pattern, so I’ll pass. | Motet debuted in the Sorrento (G3) as a big longshot and got up for a minor award. She received an 68 Equibase speed figure while finishing 11 1/4-lengths behind Dreamfyre. Trainer Ruben Gomez hasn’t hit the board in a stakes race in the last five years. Pass. |
| 12. Gate to Paradise (20-1) | |
| Gate to Paradise deferred to Chatalas in their debut and received a low 77 Brisnet speed rating. Perhaps the John Shirreffs trainee needed a start under her girth. She returned with a decent four-furlong move in 47.4 seconds, and has a series of 4 and 5-furlong works. Arrogate’s pretty gray daughter is out of multiple stakes placed juvenile Heart of Paradise. Gate to Paradise needs to improve in her second start. Perhaps she can hit the exotics, but I’ll pass. | Gate to Paradise is the sixth and final maiden in the field. She exits the same race as Chatalas and was 4 3/4 lengths behind her in third. The daughter of Arrogate was a bit slow out of the gate but moved up to settle just behind the pace-setters. Mike Smith gave her a beautiful, ground-saving trip along the rail, and while the filly gained third in the stretch, she wasn’t moving like a winner. She received an 80 Equibase speed figure. Trainer John Shirreffs is 2-for-26 (46 percent in the money) in graded stakes over the last year according to Race Lens. Kent Desormeaux takes the reins in place of Mike Smith, who will be aboard Tamara. Pass. |
| 13. Laurent (6-1) | |
| At the start of her debut, Laurent quickly backed out of contention, her head up with a climbing gate, likely in reaction to getting stinging dirt in her face. JJ Hernandez deliberately kept her wide while chasing the field through quarters of 21.55, 45.48, and 58.19 seconds. The Peter Eurton trainee had passed only two horses by the top of the lane and closed with every step to get the nod on the wire. Laurent stopped the clock in 1:04.84 earned an 80 Brisnet speed rating, with a 94 late pace figure, second only to Tamara’s. Practical Joke’s daughter is the first foal out of a half-sister to Dancing Belle, who placed in the 2017 Sorrento (G3) and was fourth in the Debutante. Laurent’s closing style is more grinder than tactical speed. She has a shot if the pace sets up for her, but I like her better for the exotics. | Laurent was able to get away with that wide trip Laurie discussed in her debut, but she was facing just eight rivals compared to the thirteen others that will enter the starting gate with her this time. Taking the overland route to avoid dirt in her face will cost her, and she can’t afford to concede ground to this group. It should also be noted that Laurent was bumped from both sides leaving the gate and then crowded between rivals, so with a cleaner start, we could see her more forwardly placed. She received an 82 Equibase speed figure for her up-in-time victory. Edwin Maldonado replaces JJ Hernandez, who will be aboard Chatalas. Exotics. |
| 14. Cheeky Gal (30-1) | |
| Cheeky Gal fought the entire way three-wide while on the lead and finally put away her rival by a half-length. Her final six-furlong time of 1:12.38 was decent, but her final furlong of 13.59 seconds wasn’t that bold. Maximum Mischief’s daughter will have to expend early energy to get position if she employs the same front-running tactics. Pass. | Cheeky Gal was anything but when winning her debut as the 3-2 favorite. She raced head-and-head with the runner-up around the oval and gained a short advantage in the stretch, winning by 1/2 length with an Equibase speed figure of 79. The fourth-place finisher was a next out winner while the eighth-place finisher was second next out. Trainer Peter Miller is just a four percent winner (34 percent in the money) in graded stakes over the last year. His last graded-stakes winner was And Tell Me Nolies, who won back-to-back graded races around this time last year. Cheeky Gal’s front-running style is going to be severely compromised by being parked in the 14 hole. Antonio Fresu retains the mount. Pass. |
Final Thoughts
Laurie: Every Debutante heroine in the last 12 years finished first or second in their prep, four of them in the Sorrento.
Running styles were evenly matched with no preference for pacesetters, pressers, or closers, although closers won the last two editions of the Debutante.
Five favorites won, two placed, and the rest finished off the board.
How couldn’t I pick Tamara on top? She’s Beholder’s mini-me in looks and the way she runs.
Chatalas impressed me with how she targeted and passed horses.
Dreamfyre could lead them on a merry chase but may have company. Julias Dream might go with her. I like the way Julias Dream moves and she benefits from a rail trip.
Ashley: There’s a lot of early pace in this field, and Julias Dream benefits from having drawn the rail. However, the morning line second choice Dreamfyre isn’t badly placed while breaking from post no. 7.
Morning line favorite Tamara has most of the speed drawn to her inside, and with Hall of Famer Mike Smith in the irons, she should get a good, stalking trip.
I have to echo Laurie’s praise for Chatalas and reservations concerning Dreamfyre. While Dreamfyre has finished clear of the field in her last two races, she will have to carry her speed an extra furlong. She’ll also have to do it against a field twice the size she’s seen in those last two outings.
Laurie and I very clearly like the same top three, but who we use to fill out our superfecta is where we will vary. Laurie might be sold on Julias Dream’s pedigree for the transition from turf to dirt, but I’m looking elsewhere. I thought Hope Road performed admirably in her two starts while having to concede the win both times. She lost by just 1/2 length to Sorrento (G3) third-place finisher Dua in her debut and didn’t go down easily when facing mini-Beholder Tamara in her second start.
Ultimately, it is key to remember that it is still early in these fillies' careers, and in a field this large, anything can happen. While I stand solidly behind my top picks, there are several in this race that it would not surprise me to see them run well. Julias Dream, Benedetta, Pushiness, and Laurent could just as easily fill out the superfecta as Tamara, Dreamfyre, Chatalas, and Hope Road.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 9. Tamara (7-2) | 9. Tamara (7-2) |
| 6. Chatalas (5-1) | 7. Dreamfyre (4-1) |
| 7. Dreamfyre (4-1) | 6. Chatalas (5-1) |
| 1. Julias Dream (5-1) | 5. Hope Road (12-1) |