Head to Head: Handicapping the CCA Oaks at Saratoga
Saratoga’s 1 1/8-mile, Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks drew a compact field of six talented fillies. Topping the field is Todd Pletcher’s Kentucky Oaks (G1) runner-up and Grade 3 winner Gambling Girl. Another three graded-stakes winners also will enter the gate.
Pletcher is the winningest trainer in the race’s storied history, notching victories eight times, most recently last year with eventual 3-year-old champion filly Nest. Irad Ortiz Jr. was aboard Nest for that win and will team up with Pletcher again this year.
A list of previous CCA Oaks winners reads like a who’s who of American fillies. In recent years alone the race has been won by Monomoy Girl, Abel Tasman, Songbird and Questing, all of whom were named champion 3-year-old filly at the end of the year.
Saratoga Springs is expecting rain Thursday and Friday and possibly into Saturday. Rainfall totals are predicted to be around an inch in total, so the track still should be in good condition for Saturday’s big races. The Coaching Club American Oaks is the ninth race on the 11-race card, with the post time listed as 5:42 p.m. EDT.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast sort out the contenders from the pretenders.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Southlawn | |
| Southlawn has won 3 of 8 starts, including the Fairgrounds Oaks (G2) over Kentucky Oaks heroine Pretty Mischievous. Toss Southlawn's 10th-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks because she almost clipped heels while moving out to avoid another horse and bumped hard. Pioneerof the Nile's daughter is out of a stakes-winning miler who placed in the nine-furlong Gazelle (G2), so Southlawn should handle the distance. The Norm Casse trainee tuned up with a bullet five-furlong breeze at Churchill in his second-to-last work and more recently had a four-furlong maintenance spin around the Saratoga oval. This pacesetter/presser is a contender. | Southlawn was a latecomer to the Kentucky Oaks trail, bursting onto the scene when she upset the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) as the second longest shot on the board in the five-horse field. After tracking the field in fourth, she pounced in the stretch, overtaking and easily drawing away from eventual Kentucky Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous. She posted a career and field-best 102 Equibase speed figure for that win. As Laurie pointed out, She encountered trouble in Kentucky and finished 10th. This will be her first start since, and trainer Norm Casse gets 22 percent winners with runners off a one- to two-month layoff. He’s also 22 percent with runners at this distance and surface. Contender. |
| 2. Wet Paint | |
| Wet Paint failed as the favorite in her last two outings, the Kentucky Oaks (fourth) and the one-mile Monomoy Girl Overnight Stakes, where she finished second by 3 1/2 lengths to Hoosier Philly. By Blame out of a stakes-placed daughter of Street Cry, Wet Paint should appreciate the extra distance to set up her closing kick. Wet Paint can win but will need a quick pace to close into. Contender. | Wet Paint entered the Kentucky Oaks starting gate as the favorite after sweeping the Oaklawn preps with her patented late moves. Like Southlawn, she found trouble in that race, eventually putting in a mild rally that saw her just miss third, finishing only three lengths behind winner Pretty Mischievous. Trainer Brad Cox attempted to give her class relief in the Monomoy Girl Overnight Stakes, but Wet Paint couldn’t catch a lose-on-the-lead Hoosier Philly while still rallying for second. Of course, Cox is a high-percent trainer across all angles. Flavien Prat will reunite with the Blame filly after Tyler Gaffalione was aboard last out. Use underneath. |
| 3. Sacred Wish | |
| Sacred Wish's only off-the-board finish was a troubled ninth in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2). Not This Time's daughter is the first black-type earner out of a half-sister to Peter Pan (G2) winner Mint Lane, plus her half-sisters bore multiple Grade 1-winning turf horse Bowie's Hero, Cigar Mile (G1) winner Sharp Azteca and Kentucky Derby runner-up Firing Line. The George Weaver trainee brings three five-furlong bullet works to the CCA Oaks. She's stepping up in company, but this pace presser should be ready. Live long shot. | George Weaver's Sacred Wish was second in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) in her third career start. That wasn’t enough to get her in the gate in Kentucky, so her next stop was the Black-Eyed Susan (G2). She was forwardly placed early but was taken up on the clubhouse turn when running up the heels of the filly in front of her. She continued to lose ground from there, eventually finishing ninth. She took a class drop in her last start and finished second in a 1 1/16-mile, $50,000 optional claimer at Belmont. Winner Sunset Louise won again next out, and third-place finisher Just Katherine was runner-up in the Wilton Stakes at Saratoga in her next start. Weaver is only 10 percent in stakes races. But in a field this small, Sacred Wish could grab a piece of the pie. However, I have to pass. |
| Gambling Girl is rolling the dice on her fifth start at 1 1/8 miles. She had a heartbreaking defeat in the Kentucky Oaks, closing with a rush but missing the lilies by a head. The Todd Pletcher trainee had a similar situation in the Gazelle (G2), closing down the lane but beaten a half-length. Pletcher has won five of the last dozen CCA Oaks, including last year when he teamed with Irad Ortiz Jr. Dialed In's daughter is the only filly in the field with experience at Saratoga. Contender. | With 10 starts under her girth, Gambling Girl is the most experienced runner in the field. Although she hasn’t won a stakes race, the Dialed In filly owns a 10 1/2-length victory over the Saratoga track and just missed winning the Kentucky Oaks by a neck. The Todd Pletcher trainee hasn’t raced since that monster effort in Kentucky, where she earned a career-best 96 Equibase speed figure. Like Cox, Pletcher is a high percentage trainer across the board, and the filly will have the services of one of the best in the business, Irad Ortiz Jr. Use underneath. |
| In her sole start at nine furlongs, Hoosier Philly couldn't hold off Taxed and finished second, beaten by 3 3/4 lengths despite little pressure on the front end. She had things her own way in the Monomoy Girl Stakes and galloped home by 3 1/2 lengths. The Tom Amoss trainee can set or press the pace, but I wonder whether she wants to go this far. Exotics. | Hoosier Philly was an early favorite for the Kentucky Oaks after going undefeated as a juvenile, but she didn’t quite turn the corner to begin her 3-year-old campaign. She finished third as the odds-on favorite in her season debut in the Rachel Alexandra (G2). She was then a badly beaten fourth in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), again as the favorite, behind winner Southlawn. She looked to be returning to form in the Black-Eyed Susan but was nailed inside the final sixteenth by Taxed and finished second. She finally found the winner’s circle again in the Monomoy Girl Overnight Stakes when she got an uncontested lead and took them coast-to-coast. Trainer Thomas Amoss is 25 percent with last-race winners, 22 percent at this distance and surface, 22 percent with runners off a one- to two-month layoff, and 21 percent in stakes races. Top choice. |
| She's Lookin Lucky is the only filly in the race with a victory at nine furlongs. The downside is her steady diet of optional-claiming races and a poor showing in the Fantasy (G3) in her only graded start. The Matt Shirer trainee must duplicate her last effort to handle this group. Exotics. | She’s Lookin Lucky enters off a wire-to-wire romp in a $100,000 optional claimer at Ellis Park, tying a career-best 92 Equibase speed figure. Grade 3-placed Shoplifter was fourth. The Lookin At Lucky filly has tried graded stakes company only once before, finishing 10th, beaten by 15 3/4 lengths, in the Fantasy (G3), won by Wet Paint. The filly’s only two wins have come when she’s had the lead, and I doubt Hoosier Philly will allow that. Trainer Matt Shirer is winless in stakes races. Pass. |
Final thoughts
Laurie:
Only two of the last 12 CCA Oaks heroines didn't win their previous start, and only two favorites failed to finish first or second. Closers are at a disadvantage; only two got the job done. Pacesetters and pressers ruled.
A case could be made for every filly in the field, so get out the darts. Southlawn was the best filly at Fair Grounds earlier this year and beat eventual Kentucky Oaks heroine Pretty Mischievous by 3 1/4 lengths. This filly has tactical speed and can settle on the pace or tailgate. I hope Florent Geroux has a better meet than last year's 5: 0-1-3 record in dirt routes.
Ashley:
It looks like Hoosier Philly will be the pacesetter once again. She’s Lookin Lucky has two wire-to-wire wins, including in her most recent start. But she does not consistently go for the early lead, nor does she have Hoosier Philly’s class. Southlawn also has a couple of nearly wire-to-wire wins and could gun for the lead from the rail, but again, I see Hoosier Philly as the leader in this race.
Allowing Hoosier Philly an easy lead will spell trouble for Wet Paint and Gambling Girl, who both sit off the pace and make one run for the lead. Wet Paint just fell afoul of Hoosier Philly and a pace-less race in their last start, finishing 3 1/2 lengths behind that one at Ellis Park. Likewise, the pace in the Kentucky Oaks was tepid, though Gambling Girl just missed overcoming that.
Southlawn has the best speed figure in the field and shouldn’t be too far off the pace, making it hard to not play her on top. Wet Paint has previously closed into crawling paces, but she did that against lesser fillies. When faced with stiffer competition, she just couldn’t get it done. Conversely, Gambling Girl swept past Wet Paint in the Kentucky Oaks, out-finishing her to just miss the win while Wet Paint had to settle for fourth. But pace makes the race, so I’m taking an improving Hoosier Philly on top.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| #1 Southlawn | #5 Hoosier Philly |
| #4 Gambling Girl | #1 Southlawn |
| #2 Wet Paint | #4 Gambling Girl |
| #5 Hoosier Philly | #2 Wet Paint |