Head to Head: Handicapping the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
The $2 million, 1 1/16-mile Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies drew together 13 of the nation’s top 2-year-old fillies.
This year’s edition of the premier race for 2-year-old fillies features undefeated fan favorite Tamara, daughter of multiple champion and 2012’s Juvenile Fillies winner Beholder. This will be her toughest test to date, but she has given every indication that she’s talented enough to make it three in a row.
As with the Juvenile, the winner of the Juvenile Fillies likely will be crowned champion 2-year-old filly and named the early favorite for next year’s Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.
For more on the history of the race and its key trends, click here.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast study past performances, pore over race replays and pedigrees and offer their top four picks of the Juvenile Fillies.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Candied (4-1) | |
| Candied could be any type. She improved off her 3/4-length maiden victory at Saratoga to capture the Alcibiades (G1) over more accomplished foes, including snapping multiple stakes winner Brightwork’s four-race win streak. Candied made a sweeping five-wide move and powered down the lane under a hand ride despite racing on the wrong lead the entire way. Candy Ride’s daughter is the first foal out of restricted stakes-winning sprinter Toni Tools. Her third dam is also a Grade 3-winning sprinter. Candied’s final breeze was in company with Chandelier (G2) runner-up Scalable at Keeneland. The pair moved as a team with little separating them, but Candied didn’t switch to her right lead until late in the work. The Todd Pletcher trainee’s Brisnet Speed Rating improved seven points from her first to second race, and she owns the highest late-pace figure of 100. The last Alcibiades heroine to win the Juvenile Fillies was British Idiom at this track in 2019. Contender. | By Candy Ride and trained by Todd Pletcher, Candied is undefeated in two career starts, including beating a trio of other Juvenile Fillies contenders in the Alcibiades (G1) last out. Her Brisnet Speed Rating jumped from an 88 in her debut to a 95 for the Alcibiades, a number close to the best in the field. Candied likes to come from off the pace, a run style not well-suited to Santa Anita’s short stretch. The last filly to win this race from the rail post was Beholder in 2012, but the last filly to win the Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita also won the Alcibiades in her final prep. Regular rider Luis Saez retains the mount, and he and Pletcher strike at a 22 percent clip, 48 percent in the money. Use underneath. |
| 2. Jody’s Pride (15-1) | |
| Jody's Pride is undefeated and untested, having captured both starts, including the Matron (G3), by a combined 13 1/4 lengths. She rated in the six-furlong Matron before making a wide move to outclass rivals by 3 1/4 lengths. American Pharoah’s daughter is out of a winning Scat Daddy mare who is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Make Mischief. Jody's Pride has tactical speed, but her speed rating jumped 18 points from her first to second start, an indication that she may regress in the Juvenile Fillies. Her late-pace figures are middling and she would need to up her game to win, but could be an exotic long-shot play. | By Triple Crown hero American Pharoah, Jody’s Pride is undefeated in two career starts. She was a dazzling debut winner at Saratoga in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden event, running away from her competition to win by 10 1/2 lengths. None from that field are winners, though. She won the Matron Stakes (G3) in her second start. It’s worth noting that this filly was slated for the turf but both of her races came off the lawn. She also had first preference for the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Jody’s Pride has not raced beyond six furlongs, and trainer Jorge Abreu is just 11 percent with first-time routers. Abreu is also 0 percent in graded stakes, 24 percent in the money. Regular rider Flavien Prat retains the mount on this pace-setting filly, and he and Abreu strike at a 26 percent clip, 44 percent in the money. Pass. |
| 3. Scalable (20-1) | |
| Still a maiden, Scalable was turned back by Chatalas in the Chandelier (G2). On a positive note, she gained ground and earned a respectable 96 late-pace figure. Speightstown’s daughter is out of a half-sister to 2015 Breeders’ Cup Distaff heroine Stopchargingmaria. Scalable is a powerful-looking gray filly. She was on the bridle under a strong hold in her final breeze with Candied as the pair worked as a team. However, Scalable stayed a measured neck behind. The Pletcher and Jose Ortiz team should be respected, and Scalable looks like a live long shot. | By Speightstown, Scalable enters the championships still a maiden. She debuted at Saratoga in a seven-furlong maiden event for trainer Todd Pletcher but could manage only fifth against a field that has since produced two winners. Pletcher then shipped Scalable to Santa Anita where she finished second in the Chandelier (G2), 2 1/2 lengths behind Chatalas. Scalable is a presser-mid-pack type and does seem to like the Santa Anita track. Jose Ortiz hops aboard for the first time, and he and Pletcher get their photos taken together at a 15 percent clip, 59 percent in the money. Use underneath. |
| 4. Where’s My Ring (30-1) | |
| Where's My Ring is aptly named, as she’s hoping to find it in the winner’s circle if she can get there. She came oh so close, beaten a nose and a neck in her first two starts sprinting on dirt, but she had problems in the Surfer Girl (G3) on turf. This is an odd spot for the Val Brinkerhoff trainee. Pass. | By Twirling Candy, Where’s My Ring also enters this race as a maiden. The Val Brinkerhoff trainee lost her debut by a nose after gaining the lead in the stretch. She was then third, losing by a neck to winner Esprit Enchante, in her second start. Brinkerhoff then tried the filly on the lawn last out, where she was fourth in the Surfer Girl (G3). As Laurie stated, this seems an odd placement for this filly, but Brinkerhoff either liked what he saw in her last race or believed the Juvenile Fillies Turf would come up softer, as indicated by Where’s My Ring’s first preference for the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Brinkerhoff hasn’t won a graded stakes since June 2021. Regular rider Victor Espinoza retains the mount, but he has ridden for Brinkerhoff only twice in the past year with no wins and one finish in the money. Pass. |
| 5. Omaha Girl (30-1) | |
| The well-bred Omaha Girl has shown talent but is still green. She runs in spots, cocks her head and switches between leads down the stretch. By no. 2 first-crop sire Omaha Beach, Omaha Girl is a half-sister to graded-winning turf router Abaan and graded-placed Chip Leader. Omaha Girl has a lot going on in her pedigree, with inbreeding to superior mares, and her extended family includes sire Broken Vow and champion turf mare Forever Together. The Jorge Delgado trainee has a series of easy maintenance works. Her speed ratings are low, and she’s taking a big class jump. Pass. | By Omaha Beach, Omaha Girl is undefeated in both starts on the dirt with her lone career loss coming on the turf in the Colleen Stakes in her second start. Trained by Jorge Delgado, Omaha Girl enters off a front-running victory in the Hallandale Beach Stakes. Delgado won just one graded stakes this year and three overall since May 2022. Umberto Rispoli has the call, and he and Delgado have not worked together in the last year. Pass. |
| 6. Chatalas (8-1) | |
| Chatalas was no match for Tamara in the Del Mar Debutante (G1), and she was all out to beat eight rivals in the Chandelier (G2). She relaxed on the pace through moderate fractions before turning back a challenge from Scalable. Although her speed rating improved, the Mark Glatt trainee had a pre-race, solo, four-furlong move in 47.40 seconds in blinkers. She switched leads correctly and got over the ground well without being asked. Gun Runner’s daughter is the first graded winner in three generations of her female family. Chatalas needs to improve to win and might face competition on the front end. She’s capable of hanging on for a minor award. Exotics. | By Gun Runner, Chatalas was a debut winner for trainer Mark Glatt. She got a good trip in the Del Mar Debutante (G1) in her second start but couldn’t keep pace with Tamara and weakened to finish fourth, beaten by 12 lengths. Last out, she was a gate-to-wire winner in the Chandelier (G2), 1 1/2 lengths better than Scalable. She earned a career-best 92 Brisnet Speed Rating in the Chandelier, but her best Timeform rating came in her loss in the Debutante. With a prior win on the Santa Anita oval, Chatalas will be one to watch. Of note is that gate 6 is the winningest post for this race since 2000. Antonio Fresu, who was aboard for the filly’s Chandelier victory, has the call, and he and Glatt win together at a 27 percent clip, 64 percent in the money. Contender. |
| 7. Tamara (4-5) | |
| Beholder’s little girl Tamara wowed in both starts, including a dominant 6 3/40length victory in the Del Mar Debutante. Beholder captured the 2012 Juvenile Fillies, and Tamara’s sire Bolt d'Oro was third in the 2017 Juvenile. Mike Smith thinks she could be one of the best fillies he’s piloted, and that’s saying a lot. Tamara has big hoofprints to fill, but her performance says she’s up to it. Contender. | By Bolt d’Oro and out of multiple champion Beholder, Tamara is undefeated in two career starts and enters off a facile victory in the Del Mar Debutante (G1). She earned a career-best 100 Brisnet speed rating for that effort, second only to Brightwork’s 101. The big knock against Tamara, however, is that she has not yet tried two turns, but trainer Richard Mandella is 18 percent, 45 percent in the money, with sprint-to-route runners. Additionally, he doesn’t take race placement lightly, so the fact that she’s here means that he believes she’s ready. Only one Juvenile Fillies winner won the Del Mar Debutante in their final prep since 2000. Hall-of-Famer Mike Smith sticks with Tamara, and Smith and Mandella have been getting their picture taken together at a 26 percent rate, 59 percent in the money. One to beat. |
| 8. Esprit Enchante (20-1) | |
| In her last race, Esprit Enchante got her nose on the wire first in a three-way photo with Where’s My Ring. The Peter Miller trainee’s speed ratings are low, and she appears up against it. Pass. | By Tapit, Esprit Enchante is a last-out maiden winner in her second start. Maiden Where’s My Ring was third. Esprit Enchange was fifth in her debut. The Peter Miller trainee’s Brisnet Speed Ratings are well below the best in the field, and even her prior win over the Santa Anita track likely won’t improve her chances. Miller is also only 8 percent with runners taking a class hike. Juan Hernandez takes over for Mike Smith, who stuck with Tamara, and Hernandez and Miller win together at a 22 percent rate, 58 percent in the money. Pass. |
| 9. Brightwork (12-1) | |
| After reeling off four straight sprint victories, Brightwork ran out of oats in the Alcibiades (G1) after dueling on the lead through moderate fractions. The John Ortiz trainee’s speed ratings have gone downhill after hitting a career-best 101 in the Adirondack (G3), which she won by five lengths. By Wood Memorial (G1) hero Outwork, Brightwork is out of a black-type-producing daughter of Malibu Moon. Her dam’s full sister bore Haskell (G1) winner Girvin plus graded winners Midnight Bourbon, Cocked and Loaded, and Pirates Punch. If Brightwork rebounds off her sole defeat, she could be tough, but her declining form and the absence of regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. means she’s a pass. | By Outwork, Brightwork rattled off four straight wins to begin her career, including victories in the Adirondack (G3) and Spinaway (G1). She earned a field and career-best 101 Brisnet Speed Rating in the Adirondack. Last out, however, she suffered her first defeat when stretching out around two turns for the first time, managing only fifth in the Alcibiades (G1) against Candied, V V’s Dream and Alys Beach. It could be that Brightwork is a one-turn filly, but one bad race a case does not make. I’m willing to give her another shot, especially when she’s done little else wrong. Ricardo Santana Jr. takes over for regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr., who will be aboard Life Talk, and he and trainer John Ortiz win at a 15 percent clip, 40 percent in the money. Contender. |
| 10. Accommodate Eva (30-1) | |
| Last out maiden winner Accommodate Eva figured it out in her third start after switching to a pacesetting style, but her speed ratings are low. The Dallas Stewart trainee appears up against it. Pass. | By Munnings, Accommodate Eva is a last-out maiden winner, finally getting her picture taken in her third start. In her first two starts, the filly pressed the pace and then had no punch at the end. Last out, however, Luis Saez took the filly straight to the lead, and she never looked back. She earned a career-best 87 Brisnet Speed Rating, well below what she’ll need to beat the best in the field. John Velazquez replaces Saez, who was aboard for two of the filly’s three starts and will instead ride Candied. Velazquez has ridden for trainer Dallas Stewart only three times in the last year, but he’s made it count, winning one and landing in the money in the other two races. Pass. |
| 11. Life Talk (20-1) | |
| After dominating maidens in her second start, Life Talk checked in third over a sloppy track in the Frizette (G1) behind Just F Y I. Life Talk skimmed the rail but couldn’t sustain her drive, weakening in the final stages. Gun Runner’s daughter is out of a Bernardini mare who is a half to a multiple-graded winning miler. The Todd Pletcher trainee’s speed ratings have improved in each start. Irad Ortiz Jr. sticks with Life Talk, and she might show further improvement over a fast track. Live long shot. | By Gun Runner, Life Talk missed by a head to Alys Beach in her debut after shying in at the start and having to be steadied. She easily dispatched maidens in her second start before settling for third in the Frizette (G1), 4 1/4 lengths behind winner Just F Y I. Regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. opted to stick with Life Talk rather than ride Brightwork, and Ortiz and trainer Todd Pletcher visit the winner’s circle at a 23 percent clip, 60 percent in the money. It is worth noting that no filly has won this race from post 11. But I agree with Laurie that Life Talk is a live long shot. |
| 12. Just F Y I (8-1) | |
| Just F Y I has taken the overland route to both victories. Justify’s long-striding daughter won her debut by a head sprinting at Saratoga and then cleared the field by 3 3/4 lengths in the Frizette. The Bill Mott trainee took a four-furlong spin around Santa Anita in 48.60 seconds. She has excellent leg extension and glided around the track. She had a second-to-last breeze on Saratoga’s training track in 48.20 seconds, the second-best of 25 works. Just F Y I is out of a stakes-placed Street Cry mare, and her second dam is multiple Grade 1 heroine Starrer. Just F Y I’s dam is a half-sister to the dam of Uncle Benny, who placed in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Contender. | By Triple Crown hero Justify, Just F Y I is undefeated in two starts, including a nearly four-length victory in the Frizette (G1). In her debut, she pressed the pace, but in the Frizette, she took command by the second call before drawing away. The filly’s Brisnet Speed Rating jumped from an 85 in her debut to a 96 last out. The Frizette has been the most productive final prep race for the Juvenile Fillies since 2000, with eight fillies completing the Frizette-Juvenile Fillies double. Regular rider Junior Alvarado remains aboard for trainer Bill Mott, and they win together at an 18 percent clip, 50 percent in the money. Contender. |
| 13. Alys Beach (30-1) | |
| Alys Beach has been outclassed by a combined 15 1/4 lengths in the Spinaway (G1) and Alcibiades (G1). Her speed ratings are low, and she’s in deep water here. Pass. | By Omaha Beach, this Tom Amoss trainee debuted a winner, graduating at Saratoga by a game head over Life Talk in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden event. She followed that up with a fourth in the Spinaway (G1), beaten by 8 1/2 lengths by Brightwork, and a third in the Alcibiades (G1), checking in behind Candied and V V’s Dream. The 87 Brisnet Speed Rating she earned in the Alcibiades was a career-best, but she’ll need to do better to turn the tables on the fillies she’s already lost to. She was double-digit odds in both graded attempts, and I expect much of the same here. No filly has won this race from post 13. Tyler Gaffalione, who was aboard in her debut, has the call. He and trainer Tom Amoss have teamed up nine times in the past year, but have a whopping 56 percent win rate, 67 percent in the money. Pass. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: Since 2000, Eight filles prepped in the Frizette Stakes before capturing the Juvenile Fillies, including four of the last five. Fifteen of the last 22 winners captured their prep race.
Tamara is the fan favorite and rightly so. Beholder’s daughter can follow in her dam’s hoofprints and wear the Breeder’s Cup wreath. The last mother-daughter winners were My Flag and Storm Flag Flying in 1995 and 2002.
If Tamara isn’t up to the task, Just F Y I could upset the Juvenile Fillies. She has the second-highest late-pace rating in the field and one of the longest strides in the field. She glides over the track.
Candied is also a win contender, and two of the last three Breeders’ Cup editions held at Santa Anita were captured by fillies who prepped in the Alcibiades.
Two-year-olds can improve in an eye blink. Four other fillies can improve enough to fill out the lower exotics. I settled on Scalable, although any of the four could hit the board. Scalable made up ground in the Chandelier, and the large, pretty gray filly should improve with racing.
Ashley: This field is composed of a lot of early-presser types, but none have proven to be need-the-lead types, so sorting out who will do the early dirty work amounts to throwing darts.
Like Laurie, I’m high on Tamara. She’s done nothing wrong, and trainer Mandella wins at a 27 percent clip, 58 percent in the money, with first-time routers. I also think she drew well, and with Mike Smith aboard, she ought to get a good trip.
As the Frizette, Chandelier and Alcibiades winners, Just F Y I, Chatalas and Candied must be respected. Those three races have been the most productive in terms of turning out Juvenile Fillies winners. Chatalas got the best draw of that trio, breaking just to the inside of Tamara. Candied has the rail and will have 12 fillies coming over on her trying not to get parked wide on the first turn, a real possibility for Just F Y I, who drew post 12.
Scalable, Brightwork, and Life Talk are three more under my consideration. I really liked the improvement Scalable showed between starts, and it’s not unheard of for a 2-year-old to break their maiden at the Breeders’ Cup. Good Magic did it in the 2017 Juvenile after finishing second in the Champagne (G1).
Brightwork might not have liked the stretch out in the Alcibiades, but as I previously stated, I think she’s worth taking another look at, especially at a price. If Irad Ortiz Jr. has a choice of mounts, take note of who he chooses to ride. In this case, he opted for Life Talk over Brightwork. The post is unfortunate, but Ortiz is one of the best in the business.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 7 Tamara (4-5) | 7 Tamara (4-5) |
| 12 Just F Y I (8-1) | 12 Just F Y I |
| 1 Candied (4-1) | 6 Chatalas (8-1) |
| 3 Scalable (20-1) | 11 Life Talk |