Head to Head: Handicapping the 2022 Louisiana Derby

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. Silent Power 50-1

Silent Power is the Louisiana Derby "why" horse. He hasn't hit the board since last July in a restricted race at Prairie Meadows. Yes, he made up ground in the seven-furlong Big Drama Stakes at Delta Downs to finish fourth, beaten 1 1/2 lengths, taking advantage of the gasping, weary-legged pacesetters. However, they crawled home, and the winner got his final furlong in 13.98. Toss.

I have to agree with Laurie. There is nothing to like here. Silent Power’s speed figures suggest he’ll finish last in this field. Toss.

2. Zozos 8-1

Zozos steps up after destroying optional claimers by ten lengths in his last start, beating Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) third-place finisher Barossa. By Munnings out of a daughter of Forestry, this Brad Cox trainee has a sprinter/miler pedigree and conformation, plus high knee action, and, according to Race Lens, in the last five years, the only Munnings offspring to hit the board beyond nine furlongs was Bonny South. Perhaps Zozos can use his inside post position to pressure Epicenter, If so, I predict Zozos will back up in the stretch. Maybe he can hang on for a minor prize, but I'm taking a stand against. Toss.

Destroying that field of optional claimers at 1 1/16-mile was a career best effort for the son of Munnings. He’ll have to travel an extra furlong here, meaning Florent Geroux is going to have to keep him nice and relaxed on the inside. That 94 speed figure he earned last out sure looks nice, but it also could indicate a bounce is coming considering how high his figure rose from start one to start two. Exotics.

3. Call Me Midnight 6-1

I liked Call Me Midnight's chances to hit the board in the Lecomte, and the 28-1 shocker didn't disappoint.  He needed every inch of the long Fair Grounds stretch to catch Epicenter in the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte Stakes, and now gets to stretch out. He earned a career-best speed rating of 94 in the Lecomte in his 3-year-old debut. Although trainer Keith Desormeaux bypassed the Risen Star, he's kept the colt's morning works consistent, and Call Me Midnight recorded a pre-race four-furlong move in :47.40, the second-fastest of 110 for the day. Call Me Midnight's pedigree and conformation indicate that the stretch out should be within his scope. However, the dark-bay colt has his sire's late-closing running style, so he'll need someone to keep Epicenter honest on the front end. Win contender.

Call Me Midnight took a huge step forward in his 3-year old debut when he shocked Epicenter to win the Lecomte (G3).

He admittedly surprised me as well coming off that horrendous effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). The colt has two half-siblings that are winners, though they both stuck to sprinting. However, Call Me Midnight has already proven he can go two turns. The question is, will he have enough pace to run down Epicenter again. Cover your superfecta with this one.

4. Curly Tail 30-1

After a well-timed ride by Jon Court, the late-blooming Curly Tail made his first trip to the winner's circle in his sixth career start. In fact, it was the first time the Dallas Stewart trainee hit the board. Court kept Curly Tail closer to the pace than in previous races, which could be the key for this one-paced grinder. In his 3-year-old debut, Curly Tail was off slow but made up ground to finish fourth behind Ethereal Road. That one was second next out in the Rebel Stakes. Curly Tail's dam is a full sister to Arkansas Derby hero Omaha Beach and a half-sister to 2014 Champion Juvenile Filly, Take Charge Brandi. Curly Tail's speed ratings have improved in his last two starts. Yes, it's a far cry from maiden to stakes winner, but Dallas Stewart is a master of longshot surprises. Live longshot exotics.

Laurie, I think you about covered it all with this colt. I like his post, though I would have preferred to see regular rider Jon Court back in the irons. Instead, Court will be riding at Oaklawn this weekend. However, Curly Tail seems to be moving in the right direction, so I have to give him a shot. Exotics.

5. Kupuna 8-1

In his last start, Kupuna had every chance to beat Cyberknife in an optional claiming race but could do no better than second-place, beaten three lengths. You may recall that Cyberknife was previously sixth in the Risen Star. Although Kupuna has never been worse than third in four career starts, this Bret Calhoun trainee is currently a cut below graded stakes class. By Hard Spun out of a Malibu Moon daughter, Kupuna should handle the distance; however, Hard Spun offspring are overall better as older horses. Toss.

I would like to point out that not only did Kupuna fail to beat Cyberknife last out, but he also failed to beat him and winner Classic Moment in his debut. Classic Moment would go on to finish 6th in the Southwest Stakes (G3). Case rested, Laurie? Pass.

6. Epicenter 7-5

Epicenter's lone loss in the Fair Grounds preps was to the fast-closing Call Me Midnight in the Lecomte Stakes. The free-running colt dominated the Risen Star under a hand ride and may have his way again unless seriously challenged. The Asmussen trainee likes to run them off their feet early, as evidenced by his triple-digit early and mid Brisnet speed ratings. By Giant's Causeway out of a Candy Ride mare, Epicenter has a distance-loving pedigree, and he should handle the extra distance without a problem. Win contender.

Epicenter didn’t let his upset loss to Call Me Midnight in the Lecomte (G3) get in his head as he returned to win the Risen Star (G2) by 2 ¾-lengths. His speed figures are the best in the field and, and I can guarantee that Rosario will be looking for the late-running Call Me Midnight this time. Win contender.

7. Pioneer of Medina 5-1

Pioneer of Medina tried to press Epicenter in the Risen Star to no avail. The Todd Pletcher trainee backed up to fourth in the stretch, finishing a half-length behind second-place finisher Smile Happy and a head behind Zandon. Although Pioneer of Medina has a middle-distance to classic pedigree, he isn't on the same level as Epicenter, and his late-pace speed ratings aren't all that high. Maybe he can stick around for a piece, but I'm not betting on it. Toss.

Pressing Epicenter didn’t work in the Risen Star (G2), leading me to wonder if Pletcher will have a different battle plan for the son of Pioneerof the Nile, especially since the LA Derby is another sixteenth of a mile longer. Perhaps let Zozos do the dirty work and then pounce in the stretch? Meh.

8.  Galt 8-1

Galt was taken out of contention in the Fountain of Youth Stakes when he had to jump over his fallen stablemate A.P.'s Secret and unseating Joel Rosario. The Bill Mott trainee faded to fourth in the Holy Bull Stakes in his first start against winners and drew the far outside post in the Fountain of Youth. The longer stretch at the Fair Grounds works in Galt's favor, and Songbird's full brother should enjoy the extra distance. Mott has promising results with shipping his Kentucky Derby hopefuls to the Fair Grounds. Drosselmeyer, Modernist, and Country House hit the top four in the Louisiana Derby. Exotics.

Thank heavens everyone involved in that spill in the Fountain of Youth (G2) were okay. I don’t know that Galt would necessarily have won that race, but Songbird’s full brother certainly had a shot at hitting the board (rather than his stablemate) there. The long Fair Grounds stretch is much to his advantage, as Laurie pointed out. At 8-1 on the morning line, I’m more than willing to throw some money his way. Exotics.

9. Rattle N Roll 6-1

Rattle N Roll is hoping for a massive form reversal off a dismal sixth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth. It was the Ken McPeek trainee's 3-year-old debut, so we'll see if the promise shown by the Breeders' Futurity hero has matured. The son of second-crop sire Connect out of a daughter of Johannesburg may find classic distances at the top of his range. Rattle N Roll fired a pre-race bullet five-furlongs in 58:81 in company with Risen Star (G2) runner-up Smile Happy. On a positive note, he wasn't lathered like his works pre-Fountain of Youth, but the jock had to flick his whip at Rattle N Roll around the turn, and the colt stayed a measured neck behind Smile Happy through the wire. His rival was moving well within himself down the stretch. I'll wait to see if he can shake things up. Toss.

Rattle N Roll certainly took some steps forward last year. He was third upon debut before bolting in the second turn in his second start. He then rattled (see what I did there) off two straight open length wins, including the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). Personally, I’m giving Rattle N Roll a pass for the Fountain of Youth (G2). It was his first start in five months and then the drama turning for home served as a distraction for many. Exotics.

        Laurie

       Ashley

6. Epicenter 7-5

6. Epicenter 7-5

3. Call Me Midnight 6-1

8. Galt 8-1

8. Galt 8-1

3. Call Me Midnight 6-1

4. Curly Tail 30-1

9. Rattle N Roll 6-1