Head to Head: Handicapping the 2022 Jockey Club Gold Cup
Eight older males enter the gate to contest Saratoga’s Grade 1, $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup. The field will be traveling 1 1/4 miles in search of “gold,” glory, and a coveted automatic, fees-paid berth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Olympiad, a 4-year old son of Speightstown out of the Medaglia d’Oro mare Tokyo Time, is the morning line favorite despite finishing off the board in the Whitney (G1). Trainer Todd Pletcher has four shots to beat the favorite, including second and third choices American Revolution and Dynamic One.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of From Coast to Coast sort out who will strike it rich and who will go home with fool’s gold.
| LAURIE | ASHLEY |
| 1. Tax 10-1 | |
| Despite having the pedigree to run all day, Tax is 0-for-2 at ten furlongs. He's outstanding at 1 1/16 miles, but the farther he goes, the less effective he is. Yes, he won the Jim Dandy here, but that was in 2019, and he's been hit or miss since. The rail trip will help since he only wins when he's on the lead, but he'll face pressure from Olympiad and Untreated directly to his outside. Lower Exotics, at best. | Tax returned from a 1 1/2-year hiatus to take the Battery Park in gate-to-wire fashion, earning a 102 Beyer figure. The son of Arch won the Jim Dandy (G2) here at Saratoga in 2019 before finishing a disappointing 7th in that year’s Travers (G1). The gelding has never hit the board traveling the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles. Two of his last three races have been career bests, so Tax could be a live longshot. |
| 2. Olympiad 2-1 | |
| Six of Olympiad's seven Brisnet speed ratings are triple-digit, and he went on a five-race win streak from January to July. However, the Bill Mott trainee just couldn't get into his groove in the Whitney while chasing Life is Good. He meets a softer field here and should rebound. This son of Speightstown gets tested at ten furlongs. He's bred on the same sire/damsire cross as American Oaks heroine Competitionofideas and Speightstown's son Haynesfield, who captured the 2010 JCGC. Contender. | Favorite Olympiad had a 5-race win streak snapped when losing the Whitney (G1) last out. Now, there’s no shame in that as the Whitney was loaded with some of the best in the handicap division. That was the only time this son of Speightstown has been off the board at Saratoga. Additionally, like Laurie also mentioned, he has posted triple digit speed figures in 6 of his last 7 starts. Win contender. |
| 3. Untreated 12-1 | |
| Untreated has come out on the losing end in recent graded stakes, although not by much. He was third in his last two starts behind Dynamic One and First Captain with Rosario aboard. Untreated reunites with Jose Ortiz, who guided the colt to victory in two starts last year. Off since July, Untreated returns with a lifetime best speed rating of 108 and has twice finished third at ten furlongs. Maybe he can hang on for a piece as a longshot, but there are others I like better. Pass. | Untreated has yet to win a race this year, but he’s placed in 3-of-4 starts, including missing the win by just 3/4-length in the Suburban (G2) behind Dynamic One and First Captain. He should provide company for Tax on the front end, but I doubt he will carry that speed all the way to the finish against a group that he has already proven inferior to. However, he hasn’t been off the board in either start at 1 1/4 miles. Exotics. |
| 4. Chess Chief 30-1 | |
| Chess Chief was fifth in last year's JCGC. Since then, he's won once. The Dallas Stewart trainee was a distant third in the restricted Alydar Stakes in his last outing. Pass. | Chess Chief is the huge longshot for a reason. In four starts in 2022, the son of Into Mischief has three 6th place finishes and a 3rd place finish (against restricted company). His average speed figure is mediocre at best. Toss. |
| 5. Americanrevolution 3-1 | |
| Americanrevolution finished a good second to Olympiad in the Stephen Foster (G2) in July while chasing a hot pace. This Pletcher trainee is making only his third start of the year and first off the layoff. He tuned up with a sharp five furlongs in 1:00 and a pre-race four furlongs in 47.85 seconds. Americanrevolution gets his first shot at ten furlongs, and his tactical style should help, along with the presence of Joel Rosario. Contender. | Americanrevolution returned from a six-month absence to run 4th in the Blame and 2nd in the Stephen Foster (G2). He lost to Dynamic One and Olympiad, respectively, in those two races. His speed figure did jump from a 97 to a 106, giving him 5 triple digit figures in his last 6 starts. Though he has never tried 1 1/4 miles, he does own a win over the Saratoga oval. Win contender. |
| 6. First Captain 4-1 | |
| In an exciting renewal of the Suburban Stakes (G2), First Captain battled down the stretch between Untreated and Dynamic One. Untreated was the first to give way as First Captain battled on with Dynamic One, annnd….lost the photo. This was First Captain's second loss to his rival; he was a well-beaten third in last year's Curlin Stakes. First Captain earned a lifetime best 109 speed figure in the Suburban. The McGaughey trainee tuned up with a second to last bullet five furlongs in 58.80. First Captain showed courage between rivals in the Suburban and has matured into a 4-year-old to watch. Contender. | First Captain didn’t debut until April of his 3-year old season. He rattled off three straight victories before running into Dynamic One in the Curlin and finishing 3rd. Since then he has displayed a win-lose-win-lose pattern, including just a nose loss to Dynamic One last out in the Suburban (G2). That was a career best effort and earned him a 109 speed figure. He seems to have really taken to route races and appears to be improving. Win contender. |
| 7. Keepmeinmind 12-1 | |
| Keepmeinmind makes his second start for Pletcher after tangling with the best of last year's 3-year-olds. He was a cut below last year, but we'll see if the barn change and maturity has changed him. Keepmeinmind outclassed a herd of allowance/optional claimers here in his JCGC tune-up. Keep him in mind for a lower exotics placing if the pace is fast. | Like Tax, Keepmeinmind returned last month from a significant layoff. He also switched to the Todd Pletcher barn and won first out for his new trainer. He has earned triple digit speed figures in his last four starts, but his best finishes at the classic distances were a pair of 4th place efforts in the Preakness (G1) and Travers (G1). I have liked this colt for quite a while now despite having a love-hate relationship with him because of his run style. I really want to like him here, but he has a tendency to make a fool out of me. Use underneath. |
| 8. Dynamic One 7-2 | |
| Dynamic One loves to storm from the back of the pack and nail them on the wire, and the 4-year-old is looking for the same result to pull the hat trick. He's coming off a career-best 109 speed rating and runs for Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr., who won the 2020 JCGC with Happy Saver. Contender. | Dynamic One enters on a two-race win streak. He narrowly defeated First Captain last out in the Suburban (G1), earning a career best 109 speed figure. He was very determined in that victory, tenaciously repelling his foe to the wire. His speed figures have improved in his last five starts, and he’s proven that he doesn’t need a super-fast pace to close into. Win contender. |
Final Thoughts
Laurie: The Jockey Club Gold Cup is always a contentious race. Only two favorites since 2010 have confirmed their fan's faith. Three have placed and five were third.
Four of the last five JCGC heroes won their previous start, but surprisingly, they were the only ones since 2010 who did. The rest were second through fourth in their previous start, except for longshot Discreet Lover who tossed a clunker in the Woodward, winding up twelfth.
The majority of this year's field are pacesetters/pressers. That could set it up for Dynamic One or even Americanrevolution, who has tactical speed.
Ashley: I expect Tax and Untreated to vie for the lead from posts 1 and 3, respectively, with Olympiad and Americanrevolution hot on their heels. First Captain should lay just off them, followed by the remaining trio. I don’t anticipate a hot pace as both Tax and Untreated have maintained about a 12 second clip in their last races. That is likely going to hinder Keepmeinmind, though Dynamic One has proven that he can close into an average pace.
Olympiad owns the best record as Saratoga with a 4: 1-1-1 showing. He has never tried 1 1/4 miles, however. First Captain, on the other hand, finished 3rd in his only start at Saratoga but won the 1 3/16-mile Pimlico Special (G3) by a head and lost the 1 1/4-mile Suburban (G2) by just a nose to Dynamic One, who was 7th in his only other start at the classic distance.
Selections
| Ashley | Laurie |
| #6 First Captain (4-1) | #8 Dynamic One (7-2) |
| #8 Dynamic One (7-2) | #2 Olympiad (2-1) |
| #2 Olympiad (2-1) | #6 First Captain (4-1) |
| #7 Keepmeinmind (12-1) | #5 Americanrevolution (3-1) |