Head to Head: Handicapping the 2022 Fayette Stakes
It’s the final weekend before the Breeders’ Cup Championships, and while the stars are putting in their final tune-ups for the big event, others will see the starting gate this weekend. Keeneland’s $350,000, Grade 2 Fayette Stakes typically attracts solid handicap types who aren’t flashy enough to be elite but stick around and become fan favorites for their durability.
Due to its proximity to the Breeders’ Cup, you don’t often see Fayette winners at the championships. However, Blame won the 2009 edition of the Fayette before winning the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Wise Dan won the 2011 Fayette before switching back to the lawn to win the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Mile. Other notable winners include Wise Dan’s half-brother Successful Dan (2010) and Judge T C (1995).
This year’s 1 1/8 mile Fayette drew a select field of six warriors, including two from the Brad Cox barn. Cox seeks his second Fayette trophy; he won in 2018 with Leofric.
The Fayette is billed as the ninth race of 10 with a 5:16 ET post-time. The track should be fast.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of From Coast to Coast put their heads together to determine who will come home a winner.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. West Will Power (4-1) | |
| West Will Power hopes the third time is the charm, and he’ll grab that elusive graded stakes designation. Previously, he was second in the Philip H. Iselin and fourth in the Salvator Mile, both Grade 3. West Will Power enters off a couple of decent performances for Brad Cox. He won his last start as a pacesetter and appears to be the lone speed in the Fayette. Contender. | By Bernardini, West Will Power has only ever been off the board in two out of eleven starts. Unfortunately for him, both of those off the board finishes came in stakes races: a fourth in the 2021 Salvator Mile (G3) and a sixth in the Parx Dirt Mile. He does own three triple digit Beyer speed ratings, but, interestingly enough, he didn’t win any of those three races, instead running second. He did win his only prior start at Keeneland by open lengths and enters this race off a gate-to-wire win in an optional claimer. If he’s going to get a graded win, I’d say now is his best chance. Contender. |
| 2. Chess Chief (10-1) | |
| 6-year-old Chess Chief has seen better days. The last time he had his picture taken was last December in a listed stakes at the Fair Grounds. The Grade 2 winner managed a distant third place, beaten 9 1/2 lengths in the restricted Alydar stakes at Saratoga, but was off the board in his last two starts. The Dallas Stewart trainee has a 1-1-2 record from 14 starts at 1 1/8 miles. Pass. | Lovable loser Chess Chief dances every dance, but very rarely does his dance card pay dividends. In 2022, he’s 6: 0-0-1; lifetime, he’s just 36: 5-4-5. He last saw the winner’s circle in the Tenacious at Fair Grounds this past September. Trainer Dallas Stewart is ambitious, and this is a soft landing for a horse that’s faced the best of the best. Another strike against him is that distant loss to Fulsome in an optional claimer at Churchill back in June. To add insult to injury, he also finished behind First Captain (seventh to his third) in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and King Fury (sixth to his third) in the Lukas Classic (G2). Hard pass. |
| 3. Fulsome (3-1) | |
| Fulsome has won 8 of 15 lifetime, won at 1 1/8 miles, and won over the track. In the Ack Ack (G3), the Cox trainee lingered at the back of the pack before making an eight-wide move around the turn. But when Florent Geroux said “go,” Fulsome was out of oats. Into Mischief’s son tosses a clunker every once in a while, but overall, he’s pretty reliable. Fulsome recorded a pre-race bullet five-furlong move and should be respected. Cox and Geroux teamed to win the 2018 Fayette with Leofric. Contender. | A son of Into Mischief, Fulsome has hit the board in ten of fifteen lifetime starts. He’s a multiple grade three winner and won his only previous start at Keeneland. Brad Cox has had this colt in pretty good form this year, winning three out of five races. A 1 1/8-mile may not be his favorite distance, though, as he’s won once at that distance and finished off the board in the only other attempt. He consistently puts up good Brisnet speed ratings, so this is a good fit for him. Contender. |
| 4. First Captain (6-5) | |
| First Captain has tactical speed. No matter where he’s placed, he’ll run his race, except, apparently, at Aqueduct. The McGaughey trainee cuts back after a trio of starts at classic distances, and with his recent Grade 1 placing, is the class of the field. Contender. | First Captain is a product of the potent Curlin/A.P. Indy cross (think Malathaat and Nest) and has only finished off the board once in nine career starts. Five of those starts resulting in wins, including the Dwyer (G3) and Pimlico Special (G3). The Shug McGaughey trainee also ran a strong second in the Suburban (G2) and third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G3). The 109 Brisnet speed rating First Captain earned while losing the Suburban by just a nose is the best in the field. The 97 he received in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last out is the best last race speed rating. With the best of the best running next weekend, this looks like an ideal spot for First Captain. Contender. |
| 5. King Fury (8-1) | |
| King Fury hopes to improve on last year’s third-place finish in the Fayette. The 4-year-old son of Curlin has run only three times this year and quietly moved up the rail in the controversial Lukas Classic to grab third place behind the feuding Hot Rod Charlie and Rich Strike. King Fury is a one-placed grinder and has been blanked in five starts at 1 1/8 miles, although he’s hit the board thrice. Perhaps he can clunk up for a lower exotics placing, but I’ll pass. | King Fury has raced just three times this year. He finished 8th in his seasonal bow in April over Turfway’s all-weather track. We didn’t see him again until August where he was third in the Fort Larned. He then ran third behind the controversial duo of Hot Rod Charlie and Rich Strike in the Lukas Classic (G2). The Curlin colt is 4: 1-0-1 at Keeneland; his on the board finishes here came in his win in the 2021 Lexington (G3) and in his third place finish in last year’s Fayette (G3). King Fury has never won at the 1 1/8-mile distance, but he has hit the board in 3-of-5 attempts. He did win the 1 3/16-mile Bourbon Trail by 13-lengths, however. Contender. |
| 6. Last Samurai (6-1) | |
| Last Samurai was pretty consistent in Dallas Stewart’s barn, but since moving to Wayne Lukas’ barn, he sandwiched a narrow third-place finish between two rough double-digit beatings, where he was simply outclassed. Now he’s facing softer company, but without his regular jock Jon Court. Instead, Tyler Gaffalione takes the reins, and Last Samurai can hopefully rebound. Contender. | Last Samurai was last seen finishing fifth in the Charles Town Classic (G2). The son of Malibu Moon has had a so-so year, putting together a record of 6: 1-1-1. He lone win of the year came when he upset the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) in April. Prior to his Charles Town Classic effort, Last Samurai was third in the R.A. “Cowboy” Jones, losing the place to West Will Power. He earned a 100 Brisnet speed rating for that race. Regular rider Jon Court will be replaced by Tyler Gaffalione, who has been winning at a 22 percent clip with early/presser types. Contender. |
Final Thoughts
Laurie. Race keys: Since switching from Polytrack back to dirt in 2013, seven of nine Fayette winners were pacesetters or pressers. Favorites won four times, including the last three editions.
The speed in this year’s Fayette bookends the field. Joel Rosario may send West Will Power to the lead from his rail position and slow things down, while Tyler Gaffalione may press with Last Samurai. First Captain has tactical speed, and I expect he’ll be in the mix. Fulsome will need a well-timed ride from Geroux.
Ashley. Before anyone comes after me for thinking that five of the six in the field could win this, consider how well matched this field is. None of them are the cream of the crop, which is not a knock against any of them. Most of them are inconsistent, winning as often as they lose.
Of the six, only West Will Power and Last Samurai are the only ones with any early speed, so expect those two to go for the early lead. I also expect for it to be a tightly bunched field. Most likely to finish last certainly goes to Chess Chief, but what about the winner? I have to go with the speed from the rail.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| #1 West Will Power (4-1) | #1 West Will Power (4-1) |
| #4 First Captain (6-5) | #4 First Captain (6-5) |
| #3 Fulsome (3-1) | #3 Fulsome (3-1) |
| #6 Last Samurai (6-1) | #5 King Fury (8-1) |