Head to Head: Handicapping the 2022 Blue Grass Stakes

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1.  12-1 Commandperformance

Commandperformance is still a maiden after four-lifetime starts, although he was a distant second in last year's Champagne (G1). The Todd Pletcher trainee was no match for Fenwick in a maiden race at Tampa last month in his 3-year-old debut. The Union Rags colt placed second, 5 1/4-lengths behind. However, he could improve in his second start and hit the board, especially with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. Must include for the connections. Exotics.

Though still a maiden, Commandperformance has run well in all four starts, including rounding out the superfecta in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He does seem to have a good case of second-it is, but if he runs back to last year’s form, it would be foolish to leave him off your tickets. Exotics.

2.  20-1 Fenwick

After a trainer change and switching to pacesetter style, Fenwick hit it out of the ballpark in his last start. He struck out a group of maidens at Tampa by 5 1/4-lengths. Now he's in a new barn, conditioned by Kevin McKathan. Paco Lopez stays with him, and Fenwick could be lone pace unless Emmanuel or Trademark challenges. By Curlin out of a Malibu Moon mare, Fenwick should love the extra distance. He could stick around for a piece. Exotics.

Fenwick impressed last out while beating Commandperformance by 5 ¼-lengths. However, it’s his four races prior to that that concern me. Yes, changing his running style seemed to be helpful, but he hasn’t faced the level of competition that Commandperformance has. Toss.

3.  30-1 Trademark

Trademark's only victories were as a pacesetter last year at Churchill. Unfortunately, he tired behind Classic Causeway in both of Tampa's Derby preps. However, Rafael Bejarano was aboard for one of last year's victories, so perhaps we'll see another pacesetting performance. Even so, the Vicki Oliver trainee's speed ratings are on the low side Toss.  

Trademark ran decently the last time he visited Keeneland, finishing second by just three quarters of a length, and that was despite not being the pacesetter he prefers to be. His efforts so far this year have been nothing to rave about, especially when you consider he was beaten by 33-lengths in the Sam F. Davis (G3). Toss.

4.  5-2 Zandon

Zandon's speed ratings have improved in each of his three starts. He gained ground in the Risen Star after hopping at the start and having to go five-wide around the turn and finished a half-length third behind Smile Happy. The Chad Brown trainee has two starts at 1 1/8-miles under his girth, so he's fit. A good ride by Flavien Prat could see a Blue Grass upset. Win contender.

Zandon is certainly on the upswing right now and is dual grade two placed. With a better trip, the son of Upstart could have run down Epicenter and Smile Happy in the Risen Star (G2). Considering that he’s run well at three different tracks already, I’d say it’s safe to assume that he’ll take to the Keeneland surface with ease. Win contender.

5.  20-1 Volcanic

After beating maidens at Gulfstream for his 3-year-old debut, Volcanic wasn't embarrassed by his third-place finish in the Sam Davis as he traveled four-wide the entire way. It was a steady effort for the Mark Casse trainee, and his speed rating improved a few points. Volcanic may find 1 1/8-miles at the top of his distance range as Violence's offspring are best as sprinter/milers. Exotics.

I have to disagree with Laurie here. In my opinion, it seems that Volcanic prefers the Florida circuit, hence his third in the Sam F. Davis (G3). Now, I’ll allow that he has definitely moved forward since his juvenile campaign, but I’m just not sure it’s enough. Toss.

6.  9-2 Emmanuel

Emmanuel ran his heart out in the Fountain of Youth, but pressing the pace five-wide isn't the place to be at Gulfstream. As a result, he understandably tired down the lane. Nevertheless, the Pletcher trainee showed that he could sit behind horses and pass, which was an important lesson. By More than Ready, Emmanuel's dam is a half-sister to Group 1-winning turf router Hawkbill and Grade 1 winner Free Drop Billy, who was third in the 2018 Blue Grass. Exotics.

Emmanuel may have an excuse for the Fountain of Youth (G2), but I am concerned about his drop in speed figures. Considering his breeding and connections, I am willing to put a line through that effort. Breaking from post 6, I think Emmanuel is going to be the pacesetter here, and try to take them gate-to-wire. Exotics.

7.  20-1 Golden Glider

Golden Glider passed tired horses to gain fourth place in the Tampa Bay Derby. The one-run closer isn't fast enough to win it, but Ghostzapper's son should enjoy the extra distance. If he gets to close into a hot pace, he's worth a look for Lower Exotics.  

So far Golden Glider has not done anything to impress me. He’s already been beaten by Grantham and Volcanic, which doesn’t bode well here. His speed figures are simply average. Toss.

8.  20-1 Ethereal Road

Ethereal Road was all out to put away Kavod in the Rebel Stakes, but Un Ojo's late surge dashed his winning hopes. That one finished an unremarkable eighth; however, Rebel third-place finisher Barber Road improved to place second in the Arkansas Derby in his next start. This Wayne Lukas trainee owns consecutive triple-digit late-pace figures, and he could be right there at the end. Exotics.

Ethereal Road did run his heart out to just miss the win in the Rebel (G2). In doing so, his speed figures continued to improve. His last two works have been bullet 5-furlong moves, showing me he’s on his toes. Live Longshot.

9.  8-1 Rattle N Roll

Rattle N Roll returns to the scene of his greatest triumph, the Breeders' Futurity (G1). Last year, he was impressive in two starts but didn't retain that form in the Fountain of Youth or the Louisiana Derby. Ken McPeek adds blinkers hoping for a reversal, and, according to RaceLens, McPeek has an average 15-percent win rate with that angle. Rattle N Roll breezed a pre-race bullet five furlongs in 58.81 in company with Smile Happy sans blinkers. Rattle N Roll was urged to stay with his mate and stayed a neck behind through the stretch. Toss.

Laurie, I think you pretty much nailed it. The best I can say here is that his speed figure and placing did improve from the Fountain of Youth (G2) to the Louisiana Derby (G2). However, if Rattle N Roll couldn’t get past stablemate Smile Happy in a simple work, then I can’t possibly see him winning this. Toss.

10.            9-5 Smile Happy

In his 3-year-old debut, Smile Happy closed in the Risen Star to finish second to Epicenter. Now he returns to Keeneland and should move forward in his second start. We don't know how far he will want to run as Run Happy's offspring are sprinter/miler types, yet Smile Happy's damsire Pleasant Tap may offer a touch of stamina to the pedigree. Additionally, the Ken McPeek trainee will likely have a wide trip from post ten. Exotics.

As a juvenile, Smile Happy was undefeated. After not facing the starter for three months, the son of Runhappy ran well to place second in the Risen Star (G2). He owns the highest speed figure in the field and should be right there in the mix at the end. Win Contender.

11.            20-1 Blackadder

Blackadder got up in the final stages to win the El Camino Real Derby. Two from that field returned to win while two others finished third in allowance races. The son of Quality Road makes his first start for Rodolphe Brisset. Over the last five years, none of his charges won in their first start after the trainer switch. Additionally, Blackadder's speed ratings are a cut below. Toss.

The last El Camino Real Derby to even hit the board was Cavonnier in 1996 when he lost by just a nose to Grindstone. Automatic Toss for me.

12.            20-1 Grantham

Grantham skimmed the rail in the Tampa Derby and had every chance to pass Classic Causeway. Instead, he finished a one-paced second, holding off Shipsational by a neck. By Declaration of War out of a daughter of Arch, this Mike Maker trainee should run all day. So far, his dirt speed ratings are average, and he may find a spot on the lawn when the dust settles. Tyler Gaffalione may use him early to get a pace-pressing spot. So I'm taking a stand and tossing him.

So far, Grantham’s only career win has been on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park. That’s not to say that he hasn’t run well on dirt, because he has; however, like Laurie said, his dirt speed figures are below average. Breaking from post 12 doesn’t help either. Toss.

Laurie

Ashley

4. Zandon 5-2

6. Emmanuel 9-2

10. Smile Happy 9-5

4. Zandon 5-2

8.  Ethereal Road 20-1

10. Smile Happy 9-5

6. Emmanuel 9-2

1. Commandperformance 12-1