Head to Head: Handicapping the 2021 Steve Sexton Mile
Give a round of applause to Lone Star Park in Texas for putting together a nice card for Memorial Day. The feature race, the Texas Derby, attracted a pair of Grade 1 winners. The Grade 3 Steve Sexton Mile (G3), led by Breeders’ Cup Sprint runner-up C Z Rocket and the focus of this weekend’s second Head-to-Head piece, will close out the day.
Four other runners in the field of eight are graded stakes winners, making for quite a race. Although C Z Rocket is favored on the morning line and likely will take a good bit of money, if ever there were a time to upset the favorite, this would be it. There is no doubt that the gelding is an excellent sprinter, but his ability to stretch out beyond seven furlongs remains in question.
With “can he do it?” being the biggest question of the day, find out whether Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of From Coast to Coast back the favorite or are looking for an upset.
| LAURIE | ASHLEY |
| Silver Prospector hasn’t won since an optional claimer last October. Sure, he was second in the Razorback Stakes – six lengths behind Mystic Guide. The Steve Asmussen trainee is hunting for improvement in his second start off the layoff. Previous forms indicate that he should do that. Exotics play. | Silver Prospector was part of last year’s weird Triple Crown season, winning the Southwest (G3) while not participating in the big three races after running off the board in the Rebel (G2) and the Arkansas Derby (G1). He bounced back with an optional claiming win, but in his last four starts, his best race was a second in the Razorback Handicap (G3) back in February. I think trainer Steve Asmussen has him placed in a good spot to get a much-needed, confidence-boosting graded win. The rail at Lone Star is winning at a 23 percent clip. I would certainly use this colt in exotic wagering with him on top, as well, in case he brings his “A” game. |
| Todd Fincher’s training style suits Sheriff Brown. The gelding has been in the money since he cut back in distance and has won or placed in all 12 starts at a mile. The son of Curlin hopes to keep his win streak intact, and there’s a good chance he can since he has the highest late-pace figures in the field. | This gelded son of Curlin enters on a three-race win streak, all at a mile, but has never faced the class he will see here. Unlike many of the rest, Sheriff Brown has race day experience at Lone Star, with a win and a place in two starts at the Texas track. His recent speed figures are good, but he will need to take a step or two forward to compete with the likes of By My Standards and C Z Rocket. |
| By My Standards cuts back in distance and drops in class. He’s consistently in the money and runs well off the layoff, and his tactical speed means he can track the pace if they go fast early. | By My Standards had a solid 2020 season, running eight times with a record of 4-2-0. Five of his six on-the-board placings were in graded stakes events. As good as he was through September, November was a flop as the now 5-year old finished off the board in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and the Clark (G1). After having the winter off, By My Standards got back to work in April, getting up in the final strides to win the nod in the Oaklawn Mile. He should have gotten a lot out of the effort and looks poised to run a good race for Bret Calhoun. |
| Warrior’s Charge is a “need-the-lead” type and generally runs out of oats a couple of furlongs from the wire. I’d love to see what he could do in sprints since he has the breeding. The Brad Cox trainee most likely will mix it up on the front end with Hunka Burning Love, who is hit or miss with finding the winner’s circle. | Warrior’s Charge has consistently earned a paycheck for trainer Brad Cox and won last year’s Razorback Handicap (G3). He faced By My Standards in his next outing and ran second to that foe in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). So far this year he has run second in an optional claimer and fifth in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). The son of Munnings has the highest speed figure at the Steve Sexton distance of a mile, but that was off a fourth-place finish in the Met Mile (G1) rather than a win. Brad Cox wins at a 27 percent rate with runners third off the layoff, so Warrior’s Charge is probably sitting on a big effort. |
| This son of Into Mischief likes Lone Star; he has two wins from three starts. He’s fine at the allowance/listed level and is ready to take on graded competition again. Hunka Burning Love might get heartburn if he tangles on the front end with Warrior’s Charge. | This 7-year old gelding, who won last year’s edition of the race, should be the pace setter for the Steve Sexton, a running style that has given him a career record of 50: 17-5-7. Yes, you read that correctly. In an era of early retirement, Hunka Burning Love has just kept on ticking. He does not necessarily have the class that a few of the others in here do, and he ran fourth behind Silver Prospector, who was second, in this year’s Razorback Handicap (G3). He does appreciate the Lone Star track, where he previously defeated a graded stakes winner, but I would use him only to fill out your superfecta wagers. |
| Harvey Wallbanger wheels back in just 16 days, and he already has run twice this month. He placed second both times and bested Hunka Burning Love by 2 3/4 lengths on May 1. He has tactical speed and tries hard, but is he at the same level as Grade 2 winner By My Standards? A lower exotics check if he’s lucky seems more likely. | Back in 2019, Harvey Wallbanger looked like he could be a good one. He ran second three consecutive times before finally breaking his maiden in start number four, then followed that up with a win in the Holy Bull (G2). It was all downhill from there. He has not hit the board in a stakes race since then and at one point could not even win a claiming race. He appears to have improved in 2021, putting together a record of 5: 2-2-0 thus far for the year. However, I do not trust the form until he proves to me he can run with the big boys. Pass. |
| Mo Mosa is another hit-or-miss type who has trouble beating allowance types. Both of his victories were accomplished as a pace setter, so if he’s to have any chance, the Mike Maker trainee may join Warrior’s Charge and Hunka Burning Love on the front end. | Did someone ask about more mimosas? Because I will certainly take one on this fine Sunday morning. But back to business. Like Harvey Wallbanger, Mo Mosa has shown good form in 2021, compiling a record of 4: 1-2-0. The son of Uncle Mo enters this spot off a victory in the Bosselman Pump and Pantry/Gas Fonner Stakes but will need to take another step forward to compete with the best in this field. |
| C Z Rocket has lost only once since joining Peter Miller’s barn, and that was a 3 1/4-length loss to Whitmore in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He’s the class of the race, has tactical speed, and this looks like a good place to gear up for his summer campaign – except that he’s won only once in four tries at a mile. | I find this to be a rather odd placement for one of the nation’s best sprinters, unless Peter Miller is taking a stab at stretching this gelding out. In his last eight starts, C Z Rocket went 7-1-0 with his lone loss in that streak coming to Whitmore in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in November. In his two starts this year, he defeated the reigning male sprint champion both times. C Z Rocket stretched out earlier in his career, but he won only once in five attempts at a mile or longer. His speed figures are the best in the field, and if he does not win, he should be on the board. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: Nine of the last 10 winners of the Steve Sexton Mile won their previous start. Favorites won only three times but hit the board seven times. Steve Asmussen’s charges won three of the last 10 editions.
Stating the obvious, C Z Rocket is the one to beat, but the favorite has a couple of knicks in his armor. He breaks from the far outside and has won only once at a mile, an allowance race at Churchill in his third start.
If C Z Rocket falters, who is most likely to win? By My Standards has the class and runs well fresh. He won the Oaklawn Mile last out and has the class. I really like Sheriff Brown. He’s a true miler and is ready for a step up.
Ashley: Despite the questions surrounding C Z Rocket’s ability to stretch out to a mile, he is the obvious class of the field.
Hunka Burning Love is going to go for the lead from post 5 and should be kept honest by Warrior’s Charge just to his inside. Hunka Burning Love does not tend to set suicidal fractions, the same of which can be said for Warrior’s Charge. Silver Prospector, By My Standards, Mo Mosa and C Z Rocket should be tucked in right behind those two, with Sheriff Brown and Harvey Wallbanger bringing up the rear. Despite the big question, I think class will be key.
SELECTIONS
| Ashley | Laurie |
| #8 C Z Rocket (2-1) | #3 By My Standards (5-2) |
| #3 By My Standards (5-2) | #8 C Z Rocket (2-1) |
| #1 Silver Prospector | #2 Sheriff Brown (20-1) |
| #4 Warrior's Charge (3-1) | #4 Warrior’s Charge (3-1) |