Head to Head: Handicapping the 2021 Louisiana Derby

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. STARRININMYDREAMS

Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. had his hands full with Starrininmydreams in the Risen Star. The son of Super Saver was very fresh off the layoff and was rank most of the way. He also came out of the gate slow and went wide around the turn. The Dallas Stewart trainee finally settled down but ran out of oats around the far turn. Starrininmydreams’ pedigree indicates that 1 3/16 miles is a tad too far, but his post-race breeze pattern is strong, and Stewart is 42 percent in the money second off the layoff.

I am not typically one to question the ride a jock gives their mount, but I do wonder why Hernandez Jr. did not just let Starrininmydreams run his race. The colt likes to be part of the pace and wasted a lot of energy fighting with his rider. Now here he is second off the layoff and with jockey Luis Saez up. I fully expect to see him go for the lead from his rail position. Now, that does not equate a win, but if he can run his race, he stands a much better chance than he did in the Risen Star.

2. RIGHTANDJUST

Rightandjust has the pedigree to love 1 3/16 miles, but his pacesetting style does not do him any favors. He was pushed early to grab the lead from the far outside in the Risen Star and folded like a bad poker hand in the stretch. Unless jockey Colby Hernandez tries to rate Rightandjust, we will see a copy of the Risen Star.

Rightandjust gets a break this time around with drawing post two, but I do not know that it will necessarily help him stretch his speed. This field has some talented runners, and I am just not sure Rightandjust fits in with the best of the best here.

3. RUN CLASSIC

Run Classic takes on more experienced graded-stakes types fresh off his maiden score and earning a triple-digit late-paced figure. Run Classic is a lanky colt with a ground-covering stride. Trainer Bret Calhoun pulled off the last-out maiden-to-Louisiana Derby winner with By My Standards in 2019. That one had more race experience and was the only maiden to stakes winner Calhoun pulled off from six similar starters.

Hernandez Jr. was aboard Starrininmydreams in the Risen Star but has opted to continue on with Run Classic, who he rode in both previous career starts. His speed figures were identical for both his six-furlong race and his 1 1/16-mile effort. This colt clearly likes Fair Grounds but will need to take a big step forward to keep up with some of the rest of this field.

4. PROXY

Proxy’s Lecomte and Risen Star efforts were similar. He bumped at the break and made up ground at the end to finish second. Proxy is a one-paced grinder and should appreciate the extra distance. He, Mandaloun, and Midnight Bourbon have all figured in the top three of the Fair Grounds preps. Maybe it is Proxy’s turn to win.

As Laurie pointed out, Proxy gave very similar efforts in both the Lecomte and the Risen Star. In the Lecomte, Midnight Bourbon led start to finish with Proxy saving second after being headed by Mandaloun in the stretch. In the Risen Star, Proxy tracked just off Mandaloun and outfinished Midnight Bourbon to snatch second out of that one’s hooves. The Godolphin color bearer will add blinkers for the Louisiana Derby, so maybe it really is his turn to get his picture taken.

5. HOT ROD CHARLIE

Hot Rod Charlie is a fresh face from California. He has kept good company, bested by the likes of Essential Quality, Medina Spirit, Tarantino and Get Her Number. If he takes to the Fair Grounds surface, Hot Rod Charlie could pull off the minor upset. Doug O'Neill's assistant Leandro Moro is named as the trainer for the Louisiana Derby.

Hot Rod Charlie shook the rust off in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), managing to nab third despite stumbling out of the gate and playing bumper cars in the stretch. He battled gamely to the wire in between rivals and lost the whole thing by just a neck. In November the son of Oxbow took a giant step forward off a maiden win to run second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at odds of 94-1. He is tied for having the fastest dirt speed in the field, but he regressed slightly last out. Honestly I am not quite sure what to do with this one.

6. MANDALOUN

Mandaloun’s speed figures and performance has improved in each start. He is well-bred, should handle the distance and is trained by Brad Cox. That being said, I do not like how he needed a minute to disengage and pass a tiring Midnight Bourbon in the Risen Star. 

Juddmonte has a bona fide runner in Mandaloun. He may have lost second in the Lecomte, but he made up for that with a victory in the Risen Star, in which Florent Geroux had him perfectly positioned to pounce in the stretch when the pace setters began to back pedal. He will certainly appreciate the distance of the Louisiana Derby, but he better watch out for a blinkers-on Proxy, who was charging hard at the end of the Risen Star.

7. MIDNIGHT BOURBON

Midnight Bourbon regressed slightly in the Risen Star after his Lecomte victory. While his overall speed figures improved, his late-pace figures are average. The Steve Asmussen trainee’s pedigree says he should love the distance. The last horse to win the Lecomte and finish third in the Risen Star was Girvin, who returned to capture the Louisiana Derby. Hmmm.

Midnight Bourbon really had no excuses in the Risen Star (G2). With jockey Joe Talamo up, he was part of a very average pace. He took the lead at the quarter pole when Rightandjust spit the bit but did not offer much resistance when Mandaloun and Proxy passed him in the stretch. It looks as though this is a colt that needs the lead, but with speed in the inside two posts, I believe we will see a repeat of his effort in the Risen Star.

8.  O BESOS

O Besos tired in his first route facing graded-stakes types. He will be wide again from the outside, and his pedigree suggests that he would be better suited up to 1 1/16 miles.

All in all, I thought O Besos gave an even effort in the Risen Star, his first attempt at a route. He moved with Proxy in the far turn but lacked the punch to keep up with the top three, passing a tired Rightandjust to round out the superfecta. I fully expect him to pick up a similar placing here.

Ashley 

Laurie

4 PROXY (7-2)

6 MANDALOUN (8-5)

6 MANDALOUN (8-5)

4 PROXY (7-2)

5 HOT ROD CHARLIE (3-1)

5 HOT ROD CHARLIE (3-1)

7 MIDNIGHT BOURBON (5-1)

7 MIDNIGHT BOURBON (5-1)