Head to Head: Handicapping the 2021 Los Alamitos Futurity
The $300,000 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) is one of the last 2-year-old prep races for the 2022 Kentucky Derby. A small field of five colts will contest 1 1/16-miles at Los Alamitos in race nine on Saturday.
Bob Baffert seeks his eighth straight and 14th overall win in the Futurity, which was previously run at Hollywood Park with the double threat of Messier and Barossa.
The former Grade 1 Futurity has lost luster in recent years, seeing the number of entries dwindle from double digits a dozen years ago to the typical four to six-horse fields in recent years and a decline in status to a Grade 2.
Out of the six winners to make it to the Kentucky Derby in the last decade, one Futurity winner (Dortmund, 20014) hit the board with a third in the Kentucky Derby.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast sort out the contenders from the pretenders.
| LAURIE | ASHLEY |
| Olympic Legend's claim to fame is that he beat Messier in a maiden race in June at Laurel Park. However, the Luis Mendez trainee was well-beaten in his last two outings by a combined 28 lengths. Toss. | Like Laurie stated, Olympic Legend defeated Messier in that one’s career debut. Incidentally, that was the only race in which this son of Street Boss had the lead. In his other three starts, he pressed the pace and lost by a combined 42-lengths. I doubt he will get the lead over some of the others here, plus he has never raced beyond seven furlongs. Toss. |
| 2. Durante | |
| In October, Durante dueled with Barossa in a one-mile maiden event, and grudgingly gave way, beaten only a half-length. Next time out at the same distance, the O'Neil trainee stumbled slightly at the start but quickly cleared the field and held on to win by a half-length. Durante is a speedball with excellent gate speed, but he paddles with his right foreleg, runs with his head up and doesn't keep a straight path down the lane. Despite having the pedigree to go longer, Durante is running on talent and is still putting things together. Unfortunately, the extra half-furlong will be his undoing. He doesn't know where he's going, but he's sticking with it. Toss. | I like that Durante has a couple of mile races under his girth, but Barossa has already gotten the better of him in their short careers. Additionally, Durante’s speed figures dropped from his race versus Barossa to his most recent one in which he finally broke his maiden. The stumble at the start could account for that, but he will need to do better than that to beat heavy favorite Messier. Exotics. |
| 3. Messier | |
| Messier hopes to follow in the hoofprints of 2016 Los Alamitos winner Mastery, who captured the Bob Hope Stakes in his previous start. Despite having the speed to win sprints, the Baffert trainee's pedigree is full of classic stamina, from sire Empire Maker to Messier's first four damsires, Smart Strike, A.P. Indy, Seeking the Gold, and Halo. Additionally, his dam is a multiple-stakes winner, and his third dam is a Canadian champ. Win contender. | Messier’s speed figures have improved with each start, rising from a 74 on debut to a 93 when winning the Bob Hope (G3). He can win by either setting the pace himself or sitting right off the flank of the pacesetter. He has never raced beyond 7-furlongs, but I trust that Bob Baffert will have him ready for this first stretch out. Additionally, Baffert will send out this Empire Maker colt with his blinkers back on. Win contender. |
| 4. Barossa | |
| Barossa improved in his second start at Del Mar to finish a distant third, bested 5 1/4 lengths by Oviatt Class in a one-mile maiden event. He won his next start over the less experienced Durante and then was tossed to the wolves in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where he was beaten 14 lengths by stablemate Corniche. I don't think he's as good as stablemate Messier, but Barossa is also the only one in the field with experience at 1 1/16 miles. Exotics. | Barossa has just one victory to his name in four starts, losing the other three races by a combined 39 ¼-lengths. I do not think this colt is as talented as stablemate Messier, but I do like him on the drop in class and with the experience at 1 1/16-mile. Exotics. |
| Slow Down Andy traveled four-wide while pressing the pace in the restricted 13-horse Golden State Juvenile on Breeders' Cup Friday. Unfortunately, the Doug O'Neil trainee lost focus in the stretch while racing between horses, and got back on track late, to miss the victory by a half-length to the more experienced multiple graded stakes placed Finneus. Nevertheless, it was an excellent effort for Slow Down Andy's second career start. Slow Down Andy's full brother Team Merchants is a stakes-winning turf miler and claims a distant kinship to Bernardini through the distaff line. Win contender. | While Slow Down Andy put in a good effort in just missing the win in the Golden State Juvenile, he will face open company for the first time here in the Futurity. The good news, however, is that his speed figures aren’t far behind those of Messier, leading me to believe he is actually a good fit for this spot. I also like him better than stablemate Durante. If he can stay focused in the stretch, Slow Down Andy could be Messier’s biggest threat. Use underneath, if not on top. |
Final Thoughts
Laurie: The favorite has won or placed in nine of the last ten editions of the Los Alamitos Futurity, so there's a good chance that whichever Baffert horse is favored at post time will win. Yawn.
The typical Futurity sets up with the favorite pressing the pace, no more than two lengths back, before making their move in the stretch. Both Messier and Barossa have this running style. I'm giving the nod to Messier, as he's the class of the field and is bred to improve with maturity. Slow Down Andy showed a lot of heart, finishing second against state-breds on Breeders' Cup Friday. He lost focus in the stretch as the wall of noise from the crowd hit him, but Slow Down Andy recovered late. I think he learned a lot that day and should give a good accounting.
Ashley: Unfortunately, I don’t have anything else to add to Laurie’s assessment. It’s a short field, and Bob Baffert dominates California (and just about everywhere else he goes).
SELECTIONS
| Ashley | Laurie |
| 3. Messier (1-2) | 3. Messier (1-2) |
| 5. Slow Down Andy (5-1) | 5. Slow Down Andy (5-1) |
| 4. Barossa (5-1) | 4. Barossa (5-1) |
| 2. Durante (9-2) | 2. Durante (9-2) |