Head-to-head: Handicapping the 2021 Holy Bull Stakes

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. JIRAFALES

Jirafales takes a considerable class jump from state-bred maiden ranks at Gulfstream Park West into graded company. Blacktype in his distaff line is modest and comprised of sprinters.

Boy do I remember the hype on sire Social Inclusion. He never did really live up to it. Instead, Honor Code, who was second the day Social Inclusion set that track record, had the more storied career. I don’t like the jump from state-bred company to graded stakes, especially with that abysmal speed figure in his only start. Pass.

2. WILLY BOI

Willy Boi conquered state-breds, and now he’s ready to take on open company. The son of Uncaptured has a sprint-oriented pedigree, and only one of three half-siblings have won at 1 1/6-miles.

Willy Boi is undefeated with very good speed figures, but he stretches out to two turns along with tackling open company. I foresee him setting the pace and fading in early stretch.

3. PAPETU

In his 3-year-old debut, Papetu closed in the Mucho Macho Man stretch, but ran out of real estate, settling for second behind well-regarded Grade 2 winner Mutasaabeq, who has since been declared off the Derby trail due to a shin injury. It was a decent effort and should set the Antonio Sano trainee up for a legit shot in the Holy Bull if he’s good enough. Papetu’s sire Dialed In won the 2011 edition of the Holy Bull Stakes. 

There’s no doubt that Papetu has speed, but his prior graded efforts are quite suspect. Yes he ran into the supremely talented Jackie’s Warrior in those two efforts, but he was nowhere near being a threat. I did like his 2021 bow, and at 15-1, I have to include him as a legitimate long shot play.

4. AMOUNT

The first of two visually impressive Todd Pletcher last-out maiden winners, Amount looked professional in his debut, sitting behind horses before swinging to outside to win as he pleased. The son of Curlin hails from the same Claiborne-bred female family as Horse of the Year and sire Blame. Amount was pushed to stay with Dynamic One (3-year-old Union Rags colt) in his Jan. 16 breeze.  Pletcher is 0-for-30 with the last-out maiden-to-graded stakes angle in the past three years, although 14 percent have finished in the money.

I agree with Laurie that Amount was visually impressive with his debut, even earning a decent speed figure. Personally I liked the professionalism of being able to sit behind horses then put them away at will. You can’t ignore Todd Pletcher at Gulfstream, and at this price, you have to like the amount this colt could score you.

5. TARANTINO

Once upon a time in Hollywood, Tarantino was a promising turf horse. Shipping East, Tarantino makes his second start for Rodolphe Brisset and his first on dirt. The son of Pioneerof the Nile is bred to progress with maturity. Last year, he handled Del Mar’s dirt adequately in morning works. Also, his half-sister Before You Know It is a stakes winner and graded placed on dirt. Others in the family have shown similar versatility. Tarantino stretches out when he’s in full flight, and if he handles the kickback, he could have a serious true romance with the Triple Crown trail. 

I always have a hard time figuring out what to do with the turf-to-dirt transfers. Pedigrees can tell you a lot, as can works, but mornings are quite different from the afternoons. So for me, it’s hard to say if he prefers turf or just leaves the real effort to the afternoons. I don’t think I will play him on top here, but he will certainly be used underneath.

6. PRIME FACTOR

In his debut, Prime Factor galloped home an 8 3/4-length winner, getting six furlongs in 1:10.38 under a hand ride. He’s posted four sharp works for Todd Pletcher. The son of Quality Road breezed in company with unraced Democracy (Quality Road) on Jan. 16. After sitting off that one’s flank, Prime Factor took over in late stretch without urging. The well-bred colt hails from the family of top sire Smart Strike.

Prime Factor certainly did have a flashy debut, but the big question is whether or not he can take that speed and stretch it to two turns. His most recent work was a sharp 59.8 for five furlongs, the fastest at the distance for the day. Irad Ortiz, Jr. retains the mount for trainer Todd Pletcher.

7. GREATEST HONOUR

Last year in New York, Greatest Honour placed a close third in maiden sprints to runaway Smarty Jones winner Caddo River. The son of Tapit is maturing for Shug McGaughey, and he found the winner’s circle in his fourth start. Greatest Honour is one of the best-pedigreed colts in the field. His second dam is Better Than Honor, whose offspring include Belmont Stakes winners Rags to Riches and Jazil, plus many others. In his second start at two turns, Greatest Honour overcame being bumped and squeezed at the start, a horse clipping heels and bashing into him around the turn, plus a wide trip. That didn’t deter him as he powered home by 1 1/2 lengths. Greatest Honour has a long, gliding stride and the pedigree to run all day. McGaughey’s last horse to get really good really fast was 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb.

You have to love both the pedigree and the maiden-breaking win for this one. You certainly can’t fault his efforts on the NYRA tracks, but he definitely did take to the Gulfstream track, or perhaps to the Florida weather. Shug McGaughey knows how to bring the good ones along, and I expect to see a show put on by this one. Maybe it will be the Holy Bull, maybe it won’t be, but you bet your bottom dollar you better include him on your tickets.

8.  SITTIN ON GO

Sittin on Go looked like a good thing winning the Iroquois (G3) in his second start but couldn’t follow through in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile or Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). The Dale Romans trainee had a sharp second-to-last breeze in company with Smiley Sobotka (second in Kentucky Jockey Club). The sons of Brody’s Cause breezed as a team and, near the wire, Sittin on Go pulled slightly ahead and was aggressively ridden out. That’s a good sign that the colt likes the track and may progress as a 3-year-old, but I’m going to pass on him, as he might need a start. Romans is 2-for-18 in graded stakes with his charges coming off an extended (63-day) layoff.

I think I should be the one to say it, but as much as I like Dale Romans, I think his best training days are behind him. That’s not necessarily his fault as you can only do so much with what you’re given. He’s had some good ones, but he is far from consistent in the top echelon of races. I want to see what Sittin On Go does in the Holy Bull before I judge one way or the other.

9. AWESOME GERRY

Multiple stakes-placed sprinter Awesome Gerry may have a tough time breaking from the far outside and stretching out. The Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee had early speed and cleared the field in the Mucho Macho Man. Liam Map’s son set the pace and tired in the stretch to finish third behind Mutasaabeq and runner-up Papetu. Awesome Gerry is the first foal out of a winning sprinter by Tribal Rule. 

My gut instinct is that Awesome Gerry is going to ultimately be a sprinter. He gets a break in that Mutasaabeq is off the trail, but that’s just one top colt out of the entire crop. Perhaps if he could slow it down on the front end, he could stretch out, but I do not see that happening.

Ashley 

Laurie

#2 Papetu (15-1)

#7 Greatest Honour (5-2)

#6 Prime Factor (3-1)

#5 Tarantino (8-1)

#7 Greatest Honour (5-2)

#6 Prime Factor (3-1)

#4 Amount (6-1)

#2 Papetu (15-1)