Head to Head: Handicapping the 2021 Flower Bowl

Photo: NYRA

The $600,000 Flower Bowl Stakes (G1) attracted seven older fillies and mares to contest the 1 3/8 mile event. Most of the runners here are already established turf routers, making the picture a bit clearer. The prestigious Flower Bowl is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge event for the Filly and Mare Turf (G1), giving the winner a fees-paid automatic place in the starting gate for that event in November.  War Like Goddess enters the Flower Bowl as the heavy favorite, leaving just the question of whether or not anyone can stop her victorious campaign. Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast determine if the turf deity can be beaten.

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. La Signare (FR) (5-1)

La Signare has been consistent in her last three starts. She had to steady in the Diana (G1), dropping from third to sixth just before the turn, and she faced a wall of horses in the upper stretch. However, once Santana, Jr. got her in the clear, La Signare powered past the field and got up for third place. It was a good effort, and she is one of two in here with some early speed. Exotics.

La Signare has been knocking at the door in terms of earning a signature win. She became a grade three winner early in her career but has just one victory since then. Like Laurie pointed out, she has been very consistent recently, and I believe she could get that breakthrough win with the added distance. Exotics


2. American Bridge (GB) (12-1)

American Bridge is the Flower Bowl mystery horse. She made a powerful last to first move in Italy's 1 1/4 mile Premio Del Giubileo (G3). Jean-Claude Rouget has a 6-0-3 record in the U.S. over the last five years, and American Bridge is aided by the addition of Irad Ortiz, Jr., who is winning turf routes at 20% this meet. Worth a longshot look to hit the board.

While we have never seen American Bridge here in the U.S., we do know that this Kodiac filly can get the Flower Bowl distance. She’s already a winner at 1 1/2 miles by virtue of an open length win in an allowance race in France. Having Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the irons is a bonus, so don’t sleep on this one.


3. War Like Goddess (4-5)

War Like Goddess is one race from being undefeated. Her speed figures have improved in each start this year, culminating in a career-best 100 Brisnet Speed Rating in the Glens Falls (G2) over My Sister Nat. The Bill Mott trainee has won her last two starts by a combined seven lengths and is the one to beat. Win contender.


I think Laurie pretty well covered all the bases here. I would only add that, like American Bridge, War Like Goddess is already proven at the Flower Bowl distance. Her last 3 races, in which her speed figures improved from race to race, were all at 1 3/8-miles or longer. Win contender.

4. My Sister Nat (FR) (5-1)

My Sister Nat hopes to avenge her loss in last year’s Flower Bowl; however, her form isn’t as good this year, and her late pace figures are among the lowest in the field. The Chad Brown trainee prepped in the Glens Falls (G2) but was no match for War Like Goddess, finishing second to that rival by 3 1/4 lengths. Toss.

My Sister Nat was no match for War Like Goddess last out in the Glen Falls (G2). However, she has been pretty consistent this year for Chad Brown, putting together a 3: 0-1-1 record so far. She has the best turf speed figure in the field, but that was from last year when running second in the Flower Bowl (G1). I do not think she can beat War Like Goddess, but I do think she will give a good accounting of herself. Exotics.


5. Lovely Lucky (20-1)

Lovely Lucky made the pace in last year’s Flower Bowl, then was passed in the stretch and finished seventh. She’s been unsuccessful in three graded starts thus far. The Albertrani trainee looks like the lone speed, and although John Velazquez is winning turf routes at only a 5% rate this meet, the crafty rider could slow the pace to a crawl in an attempt to steal all the flowers. Either that or she’ll wilt in the stretch. Toss.

Lovely Lucky has two things going for her: she likes Saratoga and she can get the distance. Aside from that, there’s not much to write home about, especially considering she’s finished behind My Sister Nat twice and that one was just trounced by War Like Goddess. Toss


6. Great Island (4-1)

Great Island was a little rank early in the Matchmaker Stakes (G3) at Monmouth while being tightly held at the back of the seven-horse field. She looked like an also-ran in mid-stretch but ran down the pacesetter late to surprise the field. The lightly raced daughter of Scat Daddy should enjoy the stretch out; The Chad Brown trainee owns the highest late pace figure in the field, and Brown is winning turf routes at a 24% clip this meet. Win contender.

Great Island has been the picture of consistency for Chad Brown, never having finished off the board. Her speed figure took a huge jump in winning the Matchmaker (G3), going from a 77 in the Galorette to a 91 for her Monmouth win. That could signal a bounce is coming, or she could continue to improve. She is also stretching out beyond 1 3/16-mile for the first time. It’s a tall task, but we’re also talking about a Chad Brown trainee. Exotics.


7. Coastana (15-1)

Coastana made a last-to-first move in her Flower Bowl prep, dominating allowance class runners by 1 1/4-lengths. Her full brother Real Solution is a multiple Grade 1-winning turf router, and a full sister is a stakes winner and graded placed. The Cherie DeVaux trainee has a win/lose cycle going, and while she owns the second-highest late pace figure, her overall speed figures are on the low side. Exotics. 


Real Solution is still one of my favorite turf routers, so I have an automatic soft spot for Coastana. However, like Laurie pointed out, her speed figures are on the lower side. She does like Saratoga, and she is proven at the distance, putting me very firmly on the fence about her. I want to say that she’s a win contender, but I think that’s over-reaching. Exotics.

Final Thoughts

Laurie:  It comes down to two trainers.  Chad Brown has won six of the last ten editions of the Flower Bowl while Bill Mott has won the Flower Bowl four times; the last was in 2008, so he’s due for another visit to the winner’s circle.

War Like Goddess is ready to win her fourth straight. Although she’s never faced Grade 1 competition, none of her rivals have won at that level. My Sister Nat came closest, missing last year’s Flower Bowl victory by a head, but she was no match for War Like Goddess in their last meeting. Brown’s other filly Great Island may prove the greatest threat to War Like Goddess, but she needs to prove herself at the distance and level. 

Ashley: This race seems to have a foregone conclusion with War Like Goddess towering over the rest of the field. The English Channel filly has a devastating turn of foot and being caught wide on the final turn and into the stretch does nothing to hinder her. The other runners will need to bring their best effort if they are going to repel War Like Goddess’s storm to the lead in the stretch. 

SELECTIONS

LAURIE


        ASHLEY

#3 War Like Goddess (4-5)

#3 War Like Goddess (4-5)

#6 Great Island (6-1)

#4 My Sister Nat (5-1)

#7 Coastana (15-1)

#1 La Signare (5-1)

#1 La Signare (5-1)

#7 Coastana (15-1)

 

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