Head to Head: Handicapping the 2021 Fayette Stakes
The $200,000 Fayette Stakes (G2) closes out Keeneland’s fall meet. Nine older horses will tackle 1 1/8 miles over the main track. Carded as race nine of ten, the Fayette post time is 5:16 PM EDT. Independence Hall has been installed as the lukewarm favorite in what looks to be a wide open field.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast sort out the contenders from the pretenders.
| LAURIE | ASHLEY |
| 1. Sleepy Eyes Todd (3-1) | |
| Sleepy Eyes Todd does his best work on the lead. He’s won at Keeneland and has a win and two seconds at nine furlongs. The Miguel Silva trainee hasn’t seen action since being outclassed by Art Collector in the Charles Town Classic last time out, but Sleepy Eyes Todd ran a monster race and was given time to recover. Win contender. | Sleepy Eyes Todd bombed his three big races this year. He finished increasingly distant in the Pegasus World Cup (G1), Saudi Cup (G1), and Dubai World Cup (G1). He does seem to have rebounded, though, posting a third at Fonner Park in April and running second in the Charles Town Classic (G2) in August. Having won here already and drawing the rail with his speed, look out for this one to get his picture taken. Win Contender. |
| 2. Manhattan Up (12-1) | |
| After finishing fourth against optional claimers and being claimed for $80,000, Manhattan Up showed noticeable improvement when capturing the Los Alamitos Special Stakes for new trainer Robertino Diodoro. Manhattan Up ships east stretches out and tries graded company for the sixth time in his career. His pedigree says he’s a sprinter/miler, and he has a lot to prove. Toss. | 12-1??? Okay, so he captured the Los Alamitos Special Stakes last out, but who did he beat? He’s grade three placed, but that was at 7-furlongs two years ago, and he hasn’t come close to that type of result since. Sixth time is not the charm. Toss. |
| 3. Militarist (50-1) | |
| Militarist, a half-brother to 2012 Breeders’ Cup Turf hero Little Mike and multiple stakes-winning turf sprinter Little Nick found his niche on the turf last July, winning two of three starts. Now Carlo Vaccarezza switches back to dirt and jumps into graded stakes company off a 63-day layoff. Distance isn’t a concern, but the surface is. Toss. | Little Mike is one of my favorite turf runners, but the decision to run his half-brother Militarist on the dirt in graded company after the colt having proved he likes the turf is beyond me. As much as I would love for him to pull the upset, he is not set up for success here. Toss. |
| 4. Night Ops (6-1) | |
| Night Ops finished second, bested just a half-length in April's nine-furlong Ben Ali (G3) over a sloppy track. The 5-year-old may have lost a step; he’s winless in seven starts this year but has a terrific bridesmaid record of four seconds and two-thirds. Exotics. | Like Laurie pointed out, Night Ops has always been the bridesmaid but never the bride this year, and that very nearly applies to his efforts at 9-furlongs, too. He cuts back in distance from the 10-furlong Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and should be a shoe-in to hit the board, if not pull off the minor upset. Exotics for sure and possibly a win contender. |
| 5. Independence Hall (5-2) | |
| Independence Hall has a sprinter/miler pedigree and an excellent record between 6 1/2 furlongs and a mile and could probably become a Grade 1 winner if kept at shorter distances. Yet, he’s pushed unsuccessfully into route races. The Mike McCarthy trainee has hit the board in three of four starts at nine furlongs, and despite the presence of Javier Castellano, I predict a similar result here. Exotics. | I’m not sure how, but I missed the memo that this guy is still racing. *Insert face palm* Sorry y’all. Busy mom of four here. So I have two hang-ups. The first is that even though Independence Hall has tried this distance 4 times, he’s never won despite hitting the board in three of those attempts. My second is that he has been racing, and losing, on the West Coast. I don’t expect a win, but I can see him filling out the Exotics. |
| 6. King Fury (9-2) | |
| King Fury won the Lexington (G3) over a sloppy track here earlier in the year, and more recently, destroyed the field by 13 lengths in the 1 3/16 mile Bourbon Trail Stakes. So the Ken McPeek trainee fits here. Win contender. | King Fury is 1-for-3 over Keeneland’s track, nabbing that lone victory over a sloppy track, as Laurie indicated. Distance is not an issue, and the speed figures fit. Win contender. |
| 7. Code of Honor (3-1) | |
| I like Code of Honor and hope he can go out a winner. He finished second by a nose (but won through DQ) in the 1 1/4 mile 2019 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), so we know he has the class and ability, but, oddly, the Shug McGaughey trainee has been blanked in five starts at nine furlongs. How fitting if he gets it done in the Fayette. Win contender. | Code of Honor has some of the best speed figures in the field; however, getting his picture taken has proven problematic. In fact, he’s only hit the board/won once this year, and that was in the Philip H. Iselin (G3) at Monmouth in an overmatched field. He faces a tougher field here but cannot be discounted. Win contender. |
| 8. Fort Peck (20-1) | |
| After being claimed for $62,500 by Robertino Diodoro, Fort Peck made an immediate improvement, beating $50,000 claimers at Saratoga, then jumping into Grade 2 company to finish a clear second in the Kelso Handicap (G2). However, he only beat one horse and was no match for Life is Good. Fort Peck has won both nine-furlong starts and has hit the board in four of five starts at Keeneland. Live longshot. | While Fort Peck did drastically improve in his last two starts, his speed figures simply do not match up with the best in this field. He does appear to like the Keeneland track, hitting the board 4 times in 5 starts. He is also undefeated at the 9-furlong distance. I want to like him, but I’m just not convinced. Toss. |
| 9. Major Fed (12-1) | |
| The Grade 2-placed Major Fed was roughed up in the Kentucky Derby, so Greg Foley gave him three confidence boosters against allowance types. Major Fed responded with back-to-back victories and is ready to get back into the stakes scene. Win contender. | Major Fed got a much deserved break after getting banged up in last year’s Kentucky Derby (G1). Since then, he’s run 3: 2-1-0, with both victories coming this year. His speed figures are quite low for this group, though I could see him picking up a minor check. Exotics. |
Final Thoughts
Laurie: Since Keeneland switched back to dirt, favorites have won four of the last six editions of the Fayette. Pace-pressers ruled, winning five times, while a mid-pack (farther back than three lengths) and a pacesetter won. Winners broke from posts one through six.
Sleepy Eyes Todd can control the pace from the rail but might see pressure from Independence Hall or Fort Peck. King Fury and Major Fed will make their move in the stretch.
Ashley: Sleepy Eyes Todd has the inside speed, but I fully expect Independence Hall to come gunning for him from post five. Fort Peck might mix it up on the front end from the outside, also. King Fury, Code of Honor, and Major Fed will all be tucked in behind that front flight, waiting to pounce in the stretch. I think I have to go with Sleepy Eyes Todd to win it on the front end.
SELECTIONS
| Ashley | Laurie |
| 1. Sleepy Eyes Todd (3-1) | 1. Sleepy Eyes Todd (3-1) |
| 5. Independence Hall (9-2) | 7. Code of Honor (3-1) |
| 7. Code of Honor (3-1) | 5. Independence Hall (9-2) |
| 9. Major Fed (12-1) | 6. King Fury (9-2) |