Head to Head: Irish shipper looms large in Belmont Derby

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. PALAZZI

Palazzi was the only one who made up ground in the Audubon Stakes over a good turf course. Tyler Gaffalione settled him about five lengths off the crawling pace set by Cellist. Once in the clear around the turn, Palazzi closed with a rush but ran out of real estate. That turn of foot earned him the highest late-pace Brisnet speed figure in the field. The Mark Casse trainee makes up ground in each start, and Pioneerof the Nile’s son should love extra ground. He’s been in the money in both starts over the good going, so surface shouldn’t be a concern. A main contender.

This is a bit of an ambitious spot for the son of Pioneerof the Nile. The colt finally got his picture taken in his fifth start when he was switched to turf. He followed that up with a listed stakes win in Texas. Since then, he’s gained ground to pick up on the board placings in three of his last four starts. Stretching out to 1 1/4 miles will likely suit him just fine and a less than firm surface won’t phase him. Could be worth a look at the price.

2. BOLSHOI BALLET (IRE)

The favorite for the 1 1/2-mile Cazoo Derby (G1) at Epsom, Bolshoi Ballet showed early interest as one of three pacesetters. Despite getting a clear three-wide trip, Bolshoi Ballet was doing Pliés in the stretch, going up and down but not forward. The Aidan O'Brien trainee faded to seventh, bested by 17 lengths. He had an excuse; Aidan O'Brien noted after the race that Galileo’s son was very sore and had sustained a cut to his hind leg during the race. O’Brien and jockey Ryan Moore teamed to win the 2016 Belmont Derby with Deauville. Bolshoi Ballet is proven on good to yielding ground and is the only one in the field proven at 1 1/4-miles.

As Laurie pointed out, the Belmont Derby is right up Bolshoi Ballet’s alley. He’s won two of three at the 1 1/4-mile distance and a yielding to good turf course won’t phase him. The son of Galileo (Ire) is a worthy favorite and should be keyed accordingly on your tickets.

3. SAFE CONDUCT

Draw a line through Safe Conduct’s Pennine Ridge (G3) performance over a sloppy track. He’s shown ability against optional claimers at shorter distances. That being said, he picked a tough crowd to make his stakes debut.

In turf races, Safe Conduct has yet to fail to miss the exacta. Both races on dirt resulted in fourth place finishes. The return to turf will be beneficial, but this is tough company to attempt to stretch out and step up in class against.

4. SAINTHOOD

Sainthood relished the off-going in the Pennine Ridge Stakes. The son of Mshawish is bred for turf and finally gets a chance to show what he can do. However, questions abound, mainly, can he handle the distance and the step up in class?

So far Sainthood as been successful on dirt and all-weather tracks, never being worse than second except when he was an also-ran in the Kentucky Derby. This will be the colt’s turf debut, and Todd Pletcher is winning at a 19% rate with the dirt to turf angle. Joel Rosario stays aboard after their success in the off the turf Pennine Ridge (G3).

5. DU JOUR

Du Jour was brought along conservatively by Bob Baffert once he figured the colt would love turf. Du Jour’s speed figures improved with each start as he moved up in company. Now that he’s in Bill Mott’s barn, Du Jour sounds like a good play, right? Not so fast. His pedigree is borderline for 1 1/4-miles. In 13 starts at the distance, Temple City offspring have one win and four in the money finishes. Newcomers to the Mott barn are more likely to complete the exotics than win.

Since making the switch from jockey Mike Smith to Flavien Prat, Du Jour has gone undefeated in three starts, including a victory in the American Turf (G2) last out. As Laurie pointed out, his speed figures improved with each start despite stepping up in class from one race to the next. The Temple City colt has shown versatility, too, winning while setting the pace, closely pressing the pace, and coming from off the pace. Certainly one to use at least underneath if not on top.

6. HARD LOVE

Hard Love showed tough love battling down the stretch to earn the victory by a head in an optional claimer. His only defeat was over good ground last November. The Jonathan Thomas trainee’s speed figures are improving, and Kitten’s Joy’s son is bred for the distance. Thomas won the 2018 Belmont Derby with Catholic Boy.

Hard Love is hard to not love. The son of Kitten’s Joy has never been worse than second thus far in his career. Every start has been at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8-mile, and Hard Love is undefeated in two starts at Belmont. Distance should not be a problem, but this is obviously a large step up in class; however, leave Hard Love out of the top spot at your own risk.

7. TOKYO GOLD (FR)

Tokyo Gold stormed from the back of the pack to dominate the 1 3/8-mile Italian Derby (G2) by four lengths under a hand ride. That triumph was the highlight of his seven-race career, but he didn’t beat much. He looks up against it from a class and speed standpoint, but this mystery horse gets John Velazquez as a partner. 

Tokyo Gold is an interesting one. Initially, he appears to be a solid play while cutting back in distance. Experience over softer ground seems to be a plus, too. But, let’s face it, winning the Derby Italiano (G2) is not actually much to brag about. Part of me says Tokyo Gold is a hard pass, but the colt does get John Velazquez as a pilot. I would use underneath but not on top.

8. CELLIST

Julien Leparoux did an excellent job of lulling the field to sleep in the Audubon Stakes. After stringing the field along through glacial early fractions, Cellist had just enough left to hold off Palazzi’s late charge. There’s other early speed in here, and Leparoux might not get away with that stunt a second time.

I really want to like Cellist. Sire Big Blue Kitten is one of my favorite turf runners, and dam Cello is a full sister to grade one placed turf runner Optimizer. With that said, I believe he is up against it here. Slow speed figures and beating mediocre competition does not make a Grade 1 winner.

9. HIDDEN ENEMY (IRE)

Hidden Enemy appears up against it. He was defeated by a combined 7 3/4-lengths in his last two starts by Du Jour, Cellist, and Palazzi. In the American Turf (G2), his first start after graduating, the Steve Asmussen trainee had a wide trip and was left with too much to do. Nonetheless, he made up ground to finish fourth behind Du Jour. He was closer in the Audubon Stakes but was crowded in the stretch. Once clear, he passed to finish fourth.  The well-bred son of Grade 1 winner Acoma (half-sister to prominent sire Arch) is a one-paced grinder. His only shot at winning is to be close to a fast pace and hope it collapses.

I have to agree with you, Laurie. Losing to a third of the field in his last two starts does very little to recommend Hidden Enemy as a solid play here. Tabbed as the longest shot in the field, Hidden Enemy would need to vastly improve to be considered a legitimate contender. Pass.

Ashley

      Laurie

#2 Bolshoi Ballet (7-5)

#4 Sainthood (10-1)

#5 Du Jour (9-2)

#2 Bolshoi Ballet (7-5)

#4 Sainthood (10-1)

#5 Du Jour (9-2)

#6 Hard Love (5-2)

#1 Palazzi (15-1)