Head to Head: Handicapping the 2020 Sam F. Davis Stakes

LAURIE

ASHLEY

Ajaaweed

The Remsen (G2) runner-up, who rallied best when chasing Shotski in December at Aqueduct, had a pre-race five furlong solo breeze in 1:00.65. He looked powerful and should bring his “A” game. Contender.

Also fourth behind the eventual Lecomte (G3) winner Enforceable in Keeneland's Breeders’ Futurity (G1), he could develop into quite a runner. If he’s ready for Independence Hall, however, remains to be seen. Definitely use underneath, if not on top.

Sole Volante

Sole Volante proved that he’s capable over dirt when he finished a sneaky good third in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park. After settling nine lengths off the early pace, Luca Panici put the gelding into a sustained drive. Sole Volante closed with every stride down the stretch but was up against the speed-biased track. He got his final eighth in 13.08, fastest in the race. Exotics contender.

Here's where we'll disagree. Sole Volante has done well in listed stakes but will need to take quite a step forward to fit in with this field, especially considering that his wins have been on the turf. His most-recent work was a bullet move on the turf, which is probably just where he belongs.

Albert Park

The Godolphin homebred Albert Park has classic breeding and should love every inch of distance he can get. His second-place finish in the local Pasco Stakes, a sprint, was pretty good. It was his initial start of the year and first on dirt. Pablo Morales kept Albert Park in contention on the outside the entire way. He looked a little tired in the stretch and was simply bested by a better horse. He’s turning around in 21 days and should show improvement. Exotics contender.

Albert Park succeeded early on the all weather surface, then turned in a lackluster performance on the turf followed by a decent effort at Tampa Bay Downs on the dirt. His pedigree suggests dirt, as dam Indy Five Hundred is a half-sister to the esteemed Delta Princess. The biggest downside for this colt for me is his tendency to find trouble in trips. As with Laurie, I’m thinking a minor placing at best.

Independence Hall

What can I say about the feisty Independence Hall that hasn’t already been written? Undefeated, excellent Brisnet Speed Ratings, and a second-to-last five furlong bullet breeze. All systems go! Contender.

Undefeated and untouched, Independence Hall is certainly the one to beat. His training has been progressing forwardly at Tampa Bay, and I expect to see yet another win from this son of Constitution.

No Getting Over Me

No Getting Over Me has lost ground in his last two starts, both sprints at Tampa. I’ve gotten over him already. Pass.

By He’s Had Enough, No Getting Over Me started his career strong but regressed in his last two starts, both listed stakes over the same track. His last two works have been bullet moves at Tampa Bay Downs, but this is going to be a class check for him. Pass.

Premier Star

Premier Star is voted most likely to upset the Sam F. Davis. Both starts looked like paid workouts. Although he tries two turns for the first time, both his sire and dam won at nine furlongs, so distance shouldn't be an issue. He’s well-bred, too. His second dam is a half sister to the dam of Harlan’s Holiday.  Contender.

I have a soft spot for this colt considering he’s by one of my favorite runners, Tapiture. Being undefeated in two starts doesn’t hurt either. This will be his stakes/graded stakes debut, and love him or hate him, trainer Jorge Navarro has been quite successful recently. Now he's taking a try at the Derby trail. Contender.

Tiz Rye Time

Tiz Rye Time sandwiched a close maiden victory between two poor efforts. Was he the victim of the dreaded post-maiden race bounce? Nothing in his breezes indicate that the Ian Wilkes trainee will improve all that much. I’ll pass this time.

Plain and simple, this colt’s speed figures do not fit with the best of this field. Additionally, what he has faced previously is nowhere in the same category as what he will see here. Pass.

Chapalu

The cleverly named Chapalu (after a Welsh legendary cat) captured the Grey (G3) at Woodbine. The race wasn’t particularly impressive, though. Patrick Husbands set the colt on an uncontested lead. They were up by four lengths in the stretch, and that margin was whittled to a half length at the wire. Chapalu looked one-paced, drifting, and flagging his tail when encouraged. Pass.

The Sam F. Davis will be this son of Flatter’s first start on traditional dirt. He broke his maiden on the turf before the Grey Stakes victory. His training at Tampa Bay has been good, but he has not raced in more than three months. I also didn't like what I saw from him at the end of the Grey, plus this might not be a fair assessment of his ability on dirt given the layoff. Class could carry him to the superfecta.