Head to Head: Handicapping the 2020 Louisiana Derby

LAURIE

ASHLEY

1. MAJOR FED

Major Fed has four things going for him. He’s bred to run all day; has shown Brisnet Speed Rating improvement in all three starts; had a second-to-last bullet breeze; and breaks from the rail. Major Fed looked like a one-paced grinder in the second division of the Risen Star (G2), but here, Joel Rosario can keep his mount in the garden spot directly behind the pace and either get a rail trip or tilt out when the running starts. If Major Fed can run back to his 106 late pace figure when he broke his maiden, this son of Ghostzapper could be a serious contender. 

Major Fed was able to hang with the big boys in the Risen Star in his graded stakes debut, though I believe he was fortunate enough to draw into the the weaker of the two divisions. He does seem to like the Fair Grounds track, and the rail post has been winning at a high clip this meet. There are quite a few pace pressers in this field, so maybe Major Fed has the best post to try to capitalize on that.

2. MAILMAN MONEY

Mailman Money has a miler pedigree and was exposed in the slower division of the Risen Star when he hung in the stretch. As Ashley mentions, speed figures are average. He’d have to step up his game to send home the money. Pass.

Previously undefeated, Mailman Money finished fourth in the same division of the Risen Star as the aforementioned Major Fed. This colt’s numbers are rather average. Trainer Bret Calhoun is hot right now, but you still need the right horse. I’m looking elsewhere.

3. WELLS BAYOU

By Lookin’ at Lucky out of a dam from the family of Big Brown, Wells Bayou is bred to handle the distance. The drawback is that mentally, maybe he doesn’t want to go this far — many front runners don’t do well at longer distances. Love his pedigree, and the team of Cox/Geroux are hot, but Wells Bayou’s speed figures don’t impress, and he had every reason to win the Southwest Stakes (G3) last time before coming up short. Pass.

Wells Bayou had things all his own way in the Southwest but was run down by Silver Prospector in the lane. He only gave way grudgingly, but Silver Prospector was certainly full of run that day. This time, will be the inside speed in a field that should have a kind pace scenario, giving him every opportunity to go gate to wire if he’s good enough. Certainly use in exotics, if not on top, as well.

4. CHESTERTOWN

Chestertown is a quirky but talented son of Tapit and has no “off” button, meaning he doesn’t relax and fights with his rider. He was rank in the early stages of his last two starts and doesn’t corner well. He had an excuse in his last start, bottled up until mid-stretch, once he got out, the Steve Asmussen trainee gobbled up ground and just missed. John Velazquez takes over the reins. Win contender.

This $2 million son of Tapit has been the favorite in each of his four starts but has only managed to have his picture taken once. He has never missed the trifecta, but he will be taking quite a step up in class. His dam, Artemis Agrotera, was a sprinter/miler, so I question if Chestertown can get this distance at this level on paper. His connections, however, are insisting the longer the better.

5. SOCIAL AFLEET

Social Afleet has a miler's bloodlines. Despite stamina on the bottom of his pedigree, his distaff line are mainly sprinter/milers. The Dallas Stewart trainee is taking a huge jump in class, despite barely beating Louisiana-breds. Pass.

It’s hard to discount Stewart on the Derby Trail, but I’m really questioning what makes Social Afleet a fit here. The colt’s speed figures are low, and both of his wins were in state-bred company. He’s in over his head. Pass.

6. SHAKE SOME ACTION

The wire couldn’t come too soon for Shake Some Action in his last start. Yes, he went wide around the turn, but he barely held on in the stretch of the 1 1/8-mile race. Speed figures are average, and I don’t see him winning. There’s always a chance he can hit the board, but I’ll pass.

By Into Mischief, Shake Some Action is a winner on turf and dirt, both times traveling 1 1/8 miles. Third dam Jeano was a Grade 3 winner, so there’s some class there. The speed figures are lower than I would like, but maybe this one can step up to match the step up in class.

7. SHARECROPPER

Sharecropper ended up in the same traffic jam in the stretch with Chestertown in their last race. However, once he got running room, Sharecropper was one paced. He should improve second time out, but I’m with Ashley: I think Al Stall, Jr. has a slower developing talent on his hands. Pass.

Sharecropper is the first foal out of Grade 3-placed Blue Violet and was an unthreatening fourth in his 2020 debut won by Shake Some Action. He lacked racing room, so who knows how well he would have fared if he had had a clear path. His pedigree suggests distance won’t be a problem, but I see this colt as more of a late bloomer. Pass.

8. ROYAL ACT

Going wide on the final turn of the Robert B. Lewis (G3) cost Royal Act the race. He was a bit green in the stretch but closed nicely behind Thousand Words. I think the extra distance will suit him here. Contender.

A son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Royal Act debuted a winner on turf but was a very tenacious second in the Robert B. Lewis last out in what was his dirt debut. His pedigree certainly suggests that dirt will be his preferred surface, so I’d suggest using this one to fill out your exotics.

9. PORTOS

Portos closed from last to get up for third in the slowly run Withers Stakes (G3). His internal fractions were slow and one-paced, and he got his final furlong in an uninspiring 13.50. Maybe he can pass tired horses and ruin somebody’s superfecta. Pass.

Portos shows five career starts, and they have all been two-turn events at either 8.5 or 9 furlongs. Distance does not seem like it will be an issue. He could only manage third in the Withers, but he came from off the pace in a race devoid of speed. A more up-front racing position could help this one take another step forward. At least exotics.

10. ENFORCEABLE

The stretch-running Enforceable should be ready to roll in his third start off the layoff. He has strong late-pace numbers, the class to handle these, and will be running late. Win contender.

Enforceable is, without a doubt, my top selection here. He’s already won the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds but just could not get to Mr. Monomoy in the stronger division of the Risen Star. The outside post should not be an issue as he will come from off the pace. Win contender.

11. NY TRAFFIC

Ny Traffic has a miler’s pedigree and was exposed in the Risen Star. Add in his outside post, and we have an also-ran. Pass.

After setting the pace in the weaker division of the Risen Star, Ny Traffic had to settle for third after being passed by fellow runners Modernist and Major Fed. Trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. will add blinkers, and the colt has put in three sharp works since the Risen Star. He will need to utilize the speed to get closer to the rail and a good running position from post 11. Maybe.

12. LYNN'S MAP

Lynn’s Mapp has a sprinter/miler pedigree, and as Ashley noted, he doesn’t belong with this group. Pass.

I really wanted to like Lynn’s Map, but he just has not shown me anything that indicates he belongs in graded company since a nice allowance win in December. Pass.

13. SILVER STATE

Silver State has the bloodlines to run all day and has a superior mud pedigree. He should be fit in his third start off the layoff, but he hung in the stretch of the Risen Star. However, if the track comes up wet, give him serious consideration. Exotics.

Silver State has previously run well against my top selection, Enforceable. He has not managed a win on the Triple Crown trail yet, but he also always manages to hit the board. I do not see him winning this, but I will definitely be using him underneath.

14. MODERNIST

Bill Mott found the key to Modernist when he changed the colt’s running style in January. He’ll have to go from the outside but could get a nice stalking position. Mott doesn’t ship for the fun of it. If he’s not overly worried about the far outside post, I’m not either. Exotics.

A son of Uncle Mo, Modernist, upset the lesser division of the Risen Star at double-digit odds off a maiden victory. He likes to be on or near the pace, which could be a problem since he drew the far outside post in this full field. Junior Alvarado will have to use him early to grab a decent running position and hope he relaxes after that. Despite that Risen Star win, my gut is telling me to look elsewhere.

15. MR. BIG NEWS

Mr. Big News is a late bloomer with talent, but by Giant’s Causeway out of a Galileo mare, I’d love to see him on the lawn. Pass.

Saddled by Calhoun, Mr. Big News ran fifth behind Modernist in the Risen Star last out. Even if he draws in, I’m going to pass.

16.  FARMINGTON ROAD

Farmington Road had a wide trip in the Risen Star but passed tired horses to get up for fourth place. He could improve next out, but it won't be here, as connections will look elsewhere rather than hoping to draw in.

Having just broken his maiden before running fourth in the stronger Risen Star, this is one I would have considered using in my exotics, especially with the addition of blinkers. Maybe next time.

Laurie

Ashley 

#4 Chestertown

#10 Enforceable 

#10 Enforceable

#13 Silver State 

#8 Royal Act

#8 Royal Act

#14 Modernist

#3 Wells Bayou