Head to Head: Handicapping the 2020 Arkansas Derby

 
Laurie (Division 1)
 

 
Ashley (Division 2)
 

1. Charlatan

1. Finnick the Fierce

Is Charlatan 2020's Justify? Many racing fans are hyping the Bob Baffert colt with favorable comparisons. The son of Speightstown zipped through his six-furlong maiden debut in 1:08.85, trouncing Shooters Shoot and two other rivals. Next out in an optional claimer, Charlatan again had it all his own way running away from four rivals. How outclassed was the competition? Charlatan got his final furlong in 12.90, while second-place finisher Rushie completed his in 13.73. Charlatan has the pedigree and conformation to handle nine furlongs, but it is likely at the top of his distance range. Win contender.

Once again this gritty, one-eyed gelding has drawn the rail. That landed him a solid fourth place finish in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), as well as a win last out in allowance company after he was placed first due to a rival's interference in the stretch. He typically comes from off the pace, though he sat much closer to the front last out. Finnick the Fierce posted a bullet five-furlong move on April 23indicating to me that he is on his toes. I certainly have to include him in my exotics.

2. My Friends Beer

2. Saratogian

My Friends Beer has finished out of the money just twice, but against far lesser company, and his sole victory was against maiden claimers at Laurel. His half-sister is 2018 Champion Sprinter Shamrock Rose, so nine furlongs may be at the top of My Friend’s Beer’s distance range. The one-run closer could make up ground through the stretch to mess up somebody’s lower exotics. But he is more likely a “hold my beer and watch this” type of runner. Pass.

A debut winner, lightly raced Saratogian followed up his maiden win with a sound thumping against much weaker than he will see here. Pass. (Update: Oaklawn announced Saratogian will scratch after publish time.)

3. Mo Mosa

3. Storm the Court

Mo Mosa’s best work has been done over the Turfway Park Polytrack. His distant third-place finish behind Shooter’s Shoot last time out left me wanting more. Pass.

The juvenile champion has looked average as a sophomore, hitting the superfecta in both starts at 3. That really isn’t a commendation due to the small field sizes in California. Nadal got the best of him in the San Vicente (G2), a result that I fully expect to see replicated here. I would use Storm the Court underneath but certainly not to win.

4. Gouverneur Morris

4. King Guillermo

Gouverneur Morris looked good in his 3-year-old debut against allowance foes at Tampa Bay Downs, but I expected to see more from him second off the layoff in the Florida Derby (G1). I wasn’t impressed that the injured Ete Indien still managed to out-finish the Todd Pletcher trainee by a neck. Gouverneur Morris should handle nine furlongs, but he still has a lot to prove. Exotics.

King Guillermo lit up the tote board when upsetting the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) with a front-running effort. Trainer Juan Calos Avila then made the controversial decision to train his charge up to the first Saturday in May. This isn't the originally intended target, but the timing fits. He put in a monster effort last time with a triple-digit late pace speed figure. Still, I don't understand how that has made him the second morning line choice here.

5. Jungle Runner

5. Nadal

Jungle Runner didn't finish in the right zip code in either the local Smarty Jones Stakes or Sunland Park's Mine That Bird Derby. He has the pedigree to run all day, but we don’t have that long. Pass.

So far this Bob Baffert trainee has done nothing wrong. He is perfect in three starts, including wins in the San Vicente and the Rebel (G2). Four consecutive bullet works show Nadal is ready to run, but he is going to have some company up front. The key here will be his willingness to relax. Win contender.

6. Shooters Shoot

6. Code Runner

Shooters Shoot will miss the Arkansas Derby after spiking a fever this week.

Trust Calumet Farm to send out a Grade 1 contender regardless of the horse’s ability. Code Runner just broke his maiden last out in what was his eighth career start. Most of his career has been spent at second-tier tracks facing much lesser company than what he will face here. Pass.

7. Wrecking Crew

7. Silver Prospector

Wrecking Crew gets away from speed-favoring California but still has a lot to prove. His Brisnet Speed Ratings are at the lower end of the spectrum. Pass. (Update: Oaklawn announced Wrecking Crew will scratch after publish time.)

I have quite the love-hate relationship with this colt. When I select him, he throws a clunker. When I leave him off, he runs well. What to do this time? The Rebel was his worst career race, but I am inclined to put a line through that one. The weather in Hot Springs looks great this weekend, and he should catch the same sort of fast track over which he won the Southwest Stakes (G3). I hope I don’t regret this, but I will be using him on my tickets.

8. Anneau d'Or

8. Fast Enough

Anneau d’Or was a colossal disappointment in the Risen Star. Was he exposed, or did he just not like Fair Grounds? The Blaine Wright trainee wasn’t flattered by his neck loss to Thousand Words in the Los Alamos Futurity (G1), and that one hasn’t lived up to the hype. Still, I like this guy, and I’ll give Anneau D’Or another chance. Exotics.

Fast Enough will miss the Arkansas Derby with a shin injury.

9. Winning Impression

9. Taishan

Winning Impression has proven ability as a pace presser or mid-pack runner. He showed acceleration in his last race, a 1 1/16-mile event over Oaklawn’s slop. He won easily but was DQ’d for coming over slightly in the stretch. Previously, the son of Paynter finished a good third behind Shake some Action in a nine-furlong optional claimer at Fair Grounds. Winning Impression has the highest late-pace Brisnet number in the field. The Dallas Stewart trainee tuned up with a pre-race bullet at Oaklawn, and Julien Leparoux jumps back aboard. Win contender.

Speedy Taishan grabbed the lead in the stretch of the Oaklawn Stakes but was just no match for the duo that passed him, including fellow entrant Farmington Road. The distance may have ultimately been too much for him, as both his dam and sire were sprinters, or perhaps he got too close to a hot pace that day. I'm looking for him to be a part of the early proceedings again but come up empty in the stretch.

10. Crypto Cash

10. Farmington Road

In his 3-year-old debut, Crypto Cash stumbled at the start of the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park and found himself a dozen lengths behind the leader. Corey Lanerie put the son of Majesticperfection into a long sustained drive down the backstretch, and Crypto Cash made up enough ground to finish fourth. Nine furlongs could be at the top of his distance range, but with a decent start, Crypto Cash may hit the board.

I passed on Farmington Road in the Risen Star but really liked him in the Oaklawn Stakes. His speed figure and finish position improved from the former to the latter. He will be coming from off the pace, which should be hot enough for him to do well. Include underneath and maybe on top if you think the pace will completely collapse.

11. Basin

11. Wells Bayou

Basin should finally get a fast track after three consecutive starts in the mud. However, he’s lost ground in both starts past a mile, and his pedigree says nine furlongs is too far, especially for a horse breaking outside in a full field. If Ricardo Santana Jr. Santana can get Basin a cozy rail trip and settle into third or fourth place, they might hold position. I’m not counting on it. Pass.

I said going into the Louisiana Derby (G2) that Wells Bayou could take it gate to wire, and that is exactly what he did. He broke from post 3 that day but drew the far outside post here, putting all the other speed to his inside. If he can relax just off the lead, he could be in a good position to take control of the race in the stretch. With Florent Geroux in the irons, you have to include Wells Bayou on your tickets.

Laurie (Division 1)

Ashley (Division 2)

#9 Winning Impression (15-1)

#10 Farmington Road (12-1)

#1 Charlatan (1-1)

#5 Nadal (5-2)

#4 Gouverneur Morris (9-2)

#11 Wells Bayou (7-2)

#8 Anneau d’Or (6-1)

#1 Finnick the Fierce (15-1)