Head to Head: Santa Anita Derby picks, predictions
The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby was supposed to match Bolt d'Oro and McKinzie in Round 2 of their rivaly. But when the latter was discovered to have soreness in his hock, trainer Bob Baffert instead sent another of his 2018 Kentucky Derby hopefuls, Justify, to take on the multiple Grade 1 winner.
So, is this a two-horse race, or is there another in the field that can step up and run big? Laurie Ross of HRN's Pedigree Power blog and I handicap the Santa Anita Derby field:
| Laurie | Ashley |
| Instilled Regard — Given a freshener after his second trip to Louisiana. Talented and can sit anywhere. He’s on the rail, so will Joel Rosario send or take back? Contender.
| Instilled Regard — Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, Instilled Regard broke his maiden over the Santa Anita main track but has just one win since then. He won the Lecomte (G3) before dropping the Risen Star (G2) and will be looking for some much-needed points here. He is definitely not better than the Big Two in here but is a good play underneath. |
| Orbit Rain — Nice pedigree for 9-plus furlongs. He’s half to multiple graded stakes placed Imperial Council (Peter Pan), and two listed stakes placed runners. Showed promise on turf, but makes his first start off a layoff here? Pass. | Orbit Rain — Trained by Mick Ruis, Orbit Rain is Bolt d’Oro’s stablemate. He has yet to win a race and looked best when trying turf for the first time in his last outing. Pass. |
| Bolt d’Oro — At the top of many Kentucky Derby lists, he's recorded triple-digit speed figures in his last three starts. The one to beat.
| Bolt d’Oro — We don’t get to see the San Felipe (G2) Round 2, but Bolt d’Oro versus Justify still has some punch to it. Bolt only has to run well here, not necessarily win, but I think Ruis will want the win regardless. Contender. |
| Jimmy Chila — He couldn't beat state-bred maidens, and his pedigree is for a sprinter/miler. My guess is that a three-horse Grade 1 Kentucky Derby prep just ‘ain’t right, so the racing secretary called in favors. Pass.
| Jimmy Chila — I personally think this is an intriguing one. While he does not have a win, he has been competitive against Restoring Hope and Heartfullofstars, who are both running in the Wood Memorial (G2). I do not think he will win, but he could fill out the exotics. |
| Pepe Tono — Nice distance-oriented pedigree. He’s a first foal, and his un-raced dam’s siblings preferred turf. If they have a pace war up front, he’ll be picking them up late. Exotics.
| Pepe Tono — This Bodemeister colt had no answer for Justify when they faced the starter last. Prior to that he was a non-threatening sixth in the Robert B. Lewis (G3). Trainer Victor Garcia is 0-for-5 in stakes races over the last year. Pass. |
| Justify — The latest buzz horse out of the Baffert barn, this son of Scat Daddy ran away from maidens and optional claimers….and the graded stakes-winning veteran Hoppertunity. The muscular Chestnut adds a furlong and steps up in class. Justify will have to reverse his speed figures of fast early/slow late if he wants to win this.
| Justify — Am I the only one that doesn’t think this colt hung the moon and the stars, too? That’s not to say that Baffert does not have a good one here, but until he has done more than win just his debut and an allowance race, which plenty of runners do and then tail off from there, I will maintain my composure. There’s no denying he’s won everything with style, and Baffert knows how to train for the big races. He’s the morning line favorite, but he’s not my favorite. Contender nonetheless. |
| Core Beliefs — He has a miler-oriented pedigree. The last horse to jump from a maiden win to the Santa Anita Derby winner’s circle was Midnight Interlude in 2011. Pass.
| Core Beliefs — Trained by Peter Eurton, Core Beliefs looked good while breaking his maiden in his third start. His Equibase speed figure for that race was higher than anything Justify has posted. He really appeared to relish both two turns and being on the lead, so look for him to possibly accompany Justify across the track. How good is he? I don’t know, but I am using him on my tickets. |
Final Thoughts
Laurie: I’ve liked Bolt D’Oro since his maiden victory at Del Mar. Unless you’re just waking up from winter hibernation, you know what he can do. Instilled Regard held his own with Solomini and McKinzie in the Los Al Futurity in his first start off a layoff. Will we see that Instilled Regard, or the one who faltered in the Risen Star? His late pace numbers are OK, but he’ll have to step it up to beat Bolt D’Oro. Justify had a nice work against Hopportunity. Other than Bolt D’Oro and Instilled Regard, there’s little else to beat.
Ashley: As with Laurie, I’ve been a fan of Bolt d’Oro from the get-go. He’s run well in each race, and I believe he's the one to beat. Justify looks like he could be a good one, but I’m not on board that bandwagon yet. Instilled Regard will offer some betting value; however, like Laurie said, there’s not much else in the field.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| #3 Bolt d’Oro (6-5) | #3 Bolt d’Oro (6-5) |
| #1 Instilled Regard (5-1) | #6 Justify (4-5) |
| #6 Justify (4-5) | #1 Instilled Regard (5-1) |
| #5 Pepe Tono (20-1) | #7 Core Beliefs (20-1) |