Head to Head: San Felipe Stakes analysis, predictions

Laurie

Ashley

Bolt d’Oro — He would have been 2-year-old champ if not for a tough trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He breaks slow every time, and as the competition gets tougher, it will be harder for Bolt D’Oro to overcome. Owner/trainer Mick Ruis has the colt on a steady work pattern of 4 and 5 furlong drills, with only one 6F breeze since January. Bolt D’Oro doesn’t need to win, just shake off the rust. Win Contender.

Bolt d’Oro — Denied a championship due to a brutal trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Bolt d’Oro returns to the races after some minor body soreness set back his training a bit. He has a tendency to start slow, but his recent works have been sharp. This will be no walk in the park for the colt, but a win here puts him solidly atop the division. Winner winner chicken dinner.

Lombo — He captured his last two starts in pace-setting fashion, including the Robert B. Lewis (G1). His final time in the race was a pokey 1:45.41. Doubtful that the son of Graydar can wire the field, and Calexman may keep him company on the front end. Pass.

Lombo — I see things a little differently than Laurie. I think Lombo has only gotten better as the distances have gotten longer. It took him three tries to break his maiden, but once he did that, he then impressively won the Robert B. Lewis on the lead. Sure, the final time was nothing flashy, but time is relative. This will be a class test for sure, but leave this one out of your exotics at your own risk.

Ayacara (GB) — Hampered by a speed-favoring track, he made a good run, but couldn’t catch Lombo in the Lewis. Ayacara would need a strong front pace to win here, but expect to see his best late. Exotics.

Ayacara (GB) — He closed impressively up the inside to run second to Lombo in the Lewis but was also well beaten by Bolt d’Oro last year in the FrontRunner (G1). However, he does seem to have moved forward since then. If all the front runners hook up, Ayacara could be well placed to run by them in the stretch should the pace fall apart. Definitely use underneath.

McKinzie — He sports the best speed figures in the field, and has improved in every start. Baffert worked the Street Sense colt twice at 7 furlongs in 1:23.4. McKinzie looked strong, professional, and galloped out well. Win contender.

McKinzie — He's undefeated thanks to the controversial DQ of Solomini in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1). He did prove that he deserved his top billing with a strong win in the Sham (G3) back in January. Baffert obviously thought this colt was up to the challenge as he could have sent McKinzie to the Rebel instead. Win contender.

Aquila — The last out maiden winner got the job done in his third start when stretching out to two turns. The son of Union Rags has a classy distaff family. His dam is a half-sister to Offlee Wild,  and his second dam is a half-sister to Dynaformer. Aquila is a big, muscular chestnut, and he’s starting to mature. He may take another step forward, and Callaghan is 19% with the maiden to SW angle. If McKinzie and Bolt D'oro don’t run to expectations, Aquila could be right there. Live longshot.

Aquila — He has sharply improved in his last two outings, especially in his most recent start where he grabbed the lead and never looked back. As Laurie indicated, he could be a nice longshot play.

Calexman — Has a sprinter/miler pedigree, and the only time he finished in the same zip code as the rest of the field was a maiden victory on the Del Mar Turf. Guessing somebody owes someone else a favor and put him in the race for betting interests. Can we bet on how far behind he’ll finish? Pass.

Calexman — He broke his maiden on the turf two starts back before finishing eighth behind the filly Paved in the El Camino Real Derby last out. He previously faced McKinzie in that one’s debut and was a non-competitive fifth. Trainer Vladimir Cerin would do well to put this one back on the lawn. Pass.

Peace — He ran wide in the Lewis and maybe regressed a little off his maiden score. Papa Mandella takes the blinkers off Peace and is 18% with that angle. So, are you willing to give Peace a chance? Exotics, maybe, but I’d like to see Mandella win it.

Peace — He was fifth in the Robert B. Lewis behind both Lombo and Ayacara last out. Jockey Mike Smith was aboard in that race but has obviously opted to stick with McKinzie. Drayden Van Dyke hops aboard for the first time. He will need to improve to keep pace with this bunch.

Kanthaka — By second crop sire Jimmy Creed, he has a sprinter/miler pedigree. Hollendorfer stretches the colt out, and horses exiting the San Vicente traditionally do well in the San Felipe. Kanthaka’s second to last breeze of 5F in 1:00.60 was impressive, on a loose rein. Another horse came up on his outside, and got within a half-length while under an aggressive ride. Kanthaka sped up slightly on his own and didn’t let the other horse by, even on the gallop out. While doing so, he wasn’t aggressive, just let himself out a notch. The other horse clearly didn’t want to pass. That’s a sign of a good horse. Kanthaka’s speed figures have improved in each start. Win contender.

Kanthaka — He will attempt the stretch out to two turns after impressively winning the San Vicente (G2) last out. Sire Jimmy Creed was a sprinter, so it will be interesting to see how Kanthaka does on the stretch out. I am not sure Kanthaka is the winner, but he could be part of the exotics.

Ashley

Laurie 

#1 Bolt d’Oro (2-1)

#8 Kanthaka (4-1)

#4 McKinzie (8-5)

#4 McKinzie (8-5)

#5 Aquila (15-1)

#1 Bolt d'Oro (2-1)

#8 Kanthaka (4-1)

#5 Aquila (15-1)