Head to Head: Handicapping the 2018 Sam F. Davis Stakes

Laurie

Ashley

Navy Armed Guard — Is still searching for that elusive first victory. His late pace speed figures fit, and he has experience over the track. Worth a look to hit the board. Exotics.

Navy Armed Guard — Still a maiden, Navy Armed Guard has failed as the favorite in his last two starts, even after being gelded prior to his most recent race. That race was at least over the Tampa Bay main track, which is a plus for a surface that can be quirky depending on the tide. Perhaps an exotics play.

Flameaway — Has mostly turf affinities in his pedigree. In his morning works, he moves like a turf horse. He’s a turf stakes winner. I see green in his future, and it isn’t a winning check from the Sam F. Davis. Pass.

Flameaway — Trained by Mark Casse, Flameaway is an interesting one. Despite racing on the lawn in his last two outings, Flameaway does have wins on the dirt. The caveat, however, is that those wins came on muddy/sloppy tracks, and he has not ever won on a fast track. Being that this is Tampa Bay, that is not as concerning a point as it would be at a track like Gulfstream Park or Santa Anita. I would like to point out, however, that he has always managed to find trouble in his dirt starts. Pass.

Vino Rosso — He has the pedigree to love classic distances. His dam is a half-sister to Commissioner, a graded stakes winner at 1 1/4 miles and runner-up in the Belmont Stakes. She’s also a half to multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter Laugh Track, who placed in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Todd Pletcher’s charges do very well in the Sam F. Davis. Does he have another Belmont Stakes winner on his hands? Major Contender.

Vino Rosso — Undefeated in two career starts, this colt is a typical Todd Pletcher trainee. He will be up either on or near the lead and owns a smart victory here at Tampa Bay Downs. With jockey John Velazquez aboard, I get the impression that Pletcher thinks Vino Rosso could be a good one. Contender.

Septimius Severus — He was best of the rest in his first start of the season. He was no match for the very promising Impact Player but overtook the tiring Silent Tiger to gain second place. Septimius Severus has a miler’s pedigree and running style to appreciate two turns. Contender.

Septimius Severus — The history nerd in me loves the fact that this Roman Ruler colt is named after an actual Roman emperor. Trained by George Weaver, this one showed good fight while winning the place in allowance company last month. Weaver does not have an impressive winning percentage in stakes, but maybe having Jose Ortiz in the irons will do some good. Exotics play.

Hollywood Star — He's a full brother to stakes-winning sprinter Miss Hollywood. He’s a beautiful mover with a fabulous pedigree and has faced some nice horses, but he seems to be the type that just misses. The Sam Davis is a softer spot than last week’s Holy Bull, and Hollywood Star should be ready to shine. Contender.

Hollywood Star — Trainer Dale Romans scratched this one from last week’s Holy Bull with three  other colts running that day. In looking for an easier spot, he has ended up landing in perhaps just as competitive a race. This field is no walkover, and Hollywood Star didn’t fare well in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. However, he’s been off since then and has had time to grow and mature. Perhaps that will put him in a good position to pick up his first graded win.

Catholic Boy — He has shown class on turf and dirt. Speed figures improved with each start, and he’s breezed twice at Tampa. So far, so good. Major contender.

Catholic Boy — A multiple graded stakes winner, Catholic Boy is likely to be your favorite. The Jonathan Thomas-trained colt was flattered when Remsen runner-up Avery Island came back and won the Withers last weekend. Regular jockey Manuel Franco will once again be the pilot, and the colt has been training smartly at Tampa Bay Downs.

Vouch — He's a full brother to Delaware Oaks (G3) winner Calamity Kate. Their dam is a half-sister to multiple graded stakes winner and sire Officer. Vouch enters for the high percentage Delacour barn, and jockey Daniel Centeno knows his way around the Tampa Bay oval. Contender.

Vouch — Owned by Lael and Three Chimneys, Vouch also exits the Remsen, in which he was third. He easily won his debut prior to that. I’m not a fan of his works and he does not appear to have much speed at all, which will be a hindrance here, as there isn’t much pace in this field.