Head to Head: Euros take on U.S. runners in Belmont Derby
Friday’s Grade 1 $750,000 Belmont Derby Invitational could set off fireworks in the 3-year-old male turf division.
Up-and-comers take on established graded horses in a well-matched field of eight over the Saratoga lawn, and most are stretching to 1 1/8 miles for the first time.
The event is featured as race 9 of 11, with a post time of 5:45 p.m. EDT. The lawn should be firm.
Here we sort through the entries looking for their top picks to light up the tote.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Tank | |
| A winner of his last three, Tank steps up in class and distance. The David Carlos trainee’s Brisnet Speed Ratings have improved in each outing since February, and as lone speed on the rail, Tank hopes to steamroll his opponents. Contender. | Trained by Carlos David, Tank barrels in on a three-race win streak. So far, he’s raced exclusively in Florida and began his win streak in a Florida-bred stake before facing open company in a pair of minor listed stakes. Although he’s certainly in career form, posting a career-best 98 Equibase speed figure last out, he might not be ready for this test. But as Laurie said, he is the lone speed. David is just 10% wins with a 29% in-the-money rate at Saratoga in the last five years and 4% wins with an 18% in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years. Luis Saez takes over from Emisael Jaramillo. Exotics. |
| Early Adopter returns to the scene of his first victory. He struggled against stakes types, picking up checks for third and fourth place before finding the winner’s circle again in a 1 3/16-mile allowance contest at Keeneland. He was no match for World Beater in the listed Audubon Stakes at Churchill, lingering at the back of the pack early and with no zip in the stretch. Pass. | Trained by Chad Brown, Early Adopter enters off a fifth-place finish, five lengths behind winner World Beater, in the Audubon Stakes. He’s 6: 2-0-2 overall with third place finishes in the Pilgrim (G2) and Central Park Stakes. Early Adopter picked up a career-best 100 Equibase speed figure when finishing fourth to stablemate Zulu Kingdom three starts back. He’s definitely not Brown’s top turf prospect, but he does warrant respect. Jose Ortiz has the mount. Exotics. |
| 3. Luther | |
| Luther faces a less challenging field than the Group 1 types in France. In his latest start in the Prix du Jockey Club (G1), Luther never was involved and crossed the line 15th of 18. The going was good-soft, and his poor showing might have been a combination of the ground, the 1 5/16-mile distance, and his strong previous effort in the one-mile Poule d’Essai des Poulains (G1), the French 2,000 Guineas. In that race, the Charlie Fellowes trainee settled closer to the pace in fifth and made a strong move in the stretch, beaten about 1 1/2 lengths by Henri Matisse, who captured last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Frankel’s son has the class but needs to prove he is competitive beyond a mile. Contender. | Trained by Charlie Fellowes, Luther enters off a 15th-place finish in the Qatar Prix du Jockey Club (G1). For all that, he was beaten by just 6 1/2 lengths. Luther also was a good fourth in the French 2000 Guineas (G1), just 1 1/4 length behind winner Henri Matisse. Equibase gave him a 120 for the 2000 Guineas and a 113 for the Prix du Jockey Club. Regular rider Kieran Shoemark ships in with him. Contender. |
| 4. New Century (GB) | |
| New Century raced as a team with Test Score down the stretch in the American Turf (G1), missing second place by a nose in only his second start of the season after shipping from Newmarket. Last year, New Century bested Luther in the Stonehenge Stakes, then shipped to Woodbine to capture the Sumer Stakes (G1). He followed up with a fourth-place effort, beaten two lengths, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Now under the eye of Brendan Walsh, New Century’s Brisnet ratings have ranged from 92 to 95. He hasn’t won beyond a mile, but his one-run closing style indicates that he may handle the extra distance. Contender. | Trained by Brendan Walsh, New Century was last seen finishing third in the American Turf (G1), 1 1/4 lengths behind winner Zulu Kingdom and a just a nose behind runner-up Test Score. It was his second start of the season, his first being a fifth-place finish in the Craven Stakes (G1). New Century was a Group 1 winner as a juvenile, winning the Summer Stakes (G1) at Woodbine before finishing fourth, beaten by just two lengths, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Oisin Murphy will get the leg up. Contender. |
| 5. Test Score | |
| Test Score’s only off-the-board finish was in the With Anticipation (G3) in his second start. On Kentucky Derby day, he was stuck on the inside in the American Turf (G1) and gained ground over good going. Previously, Test Score captured the Transylvania Stakes (G3). He travels just behind the pacesetters before unleashing his run. The Graham Motion trainee’s speed ratings have improved this year, and he’s the model of consistency. Exotics. | Trained by Graham Motion, Test Score enters off a second-place finish to Zulu Kingdom in the American Turf (G1), beating third-place finisher New Century (GB) by a nose. That came off a victory in the Transylvania (G3). Test Score has been off the board only once in five starts, but I question whether he will regress off a career-best effort. On the other hoof, his numbers have improved with each start this year. Manny Franco has the return call. Exotics. |
| 6. Final Gambit | |
| Final Gambit finally gets a second chance on turf. The pretty gray colt surprised many with a fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He followed up with a flat, one-paced finish in the Matt Winn (G3), holding fourth-place around the track. The Juddmonte Farm homebred’s distaff line is filled with international black-type winners, and his dam is a half to the excellent Group 1 winner Announce. Brad Cox’s charge peaked in form in the Jeff Ruby (G3), where he earned a career-best 101 speed rating, and his figures have declined since then. We know Final Gambit will handle the distance and the surface, but how much is left in the tank? Exotics. | Trained by Brad Cox, Final Gambit debuted on turf, finishing third, beaten 3 1/4 lengths for it all. He then went on to go 3: 2-1-0 at Turfway Park, including a victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). As Laurie said, he was a surprise fourth in the Kentucky Derby, but then he regressed numbers-wise to also run fourth in the Matt Winn (G3). He has proven he is versatile against some of the best in the country, but can he take his Kentucky form to Saratoga? Flavien Prat has the return call from the Matt Winn. Exotics. |
| 7. World Beater | |
| After getting the point across to his connections that he absolutely, positively hated dirt, World Beater switched to turf and added distance until he found his niche at 1 1/8 miles, winning a maiden event and following up with a victory in the Audubon Stakes over Early Adopter. Conditioned by Riley Mott, World Beater has improving speed ratings and can be forwardly placed. As much as I like this up-and-comer, he’s taking a huge step up. Pass. | Trained by Riley Mott, World Beater turned into a whole new colt when placed on turf after being beaten on dirt by a combined 31 1/2 lengths in two starts. He comes in on a two-race win streak, including a career-best effort in the Audubon Stakes. World Beater’s speed figures and ratings have improved with each start. Jaime Torres retains the mount. This one could surprise. Live long shot. |
| Flying Mohawk earned a spot in the Kentucky Derby after gaining points in the Jeff Ruby (G3) on Tapeta. This turf horse had no business in the Derby and finished 42 lengths behind Sovereignty. Although Whit Beckman puts first-time blinkers on Flying Mohawk, this optional-claiming-class runner might benefit from a class drop. Pass. | Trained by Whitworth Beckman, Flying Mohawk ran second to Final Gambit in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) only to fall completely flat in the Kentucky Derby, finishing 18th of 19. Flying Mohawk has two wins from four attempts on turf. Beckman puts the blinkers on and is 5% wins with a 26% in-the-money rate with that angle in the last year. Nothing about him says Grade 1 winner to me. Frankie Dettori has the call. Pass. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: This is the first time the Belmont Derby is being contested at Saratoga. Only four of the last dozen Belmont Derby heroes won their previous start. The last six winners finished between second and fourth, except for Bolshoi Ballet, who was seventh at Epsom Downs before shipping for the Belmont Derby. Most winners gained ground in their last start.
Eight of the last 12 favorites hit the board, but only two won. The last was in 2021, so we’ve seen some nice payouts. Only three winners didn’t pay double digits. The return for a win bet on Classic Causeway (2022) was $59.50, the highest in a dozen years.
Luther, New Century, Test Score and Final Gambit fit the bill as historical winners.
Luther is the top pick. The Group 1-placed invader has faced bigger and better. New Century and Test Score are evenly matched. While they seldom win, they’re always right there. But New Century is a one-run closer and might be hampered by a slower pace.
I’ve been waiting for Final Gambit to return to turf. He’s capable on all surfaces, but he should shine on the lawn. He was wrangled to the back of the pack in three of his last four starts, but Final Gambit has tactical speed, and I expect to see him close to the pace.
Tank is worth a look since lone speed is always dangerous.
Ashley: Tank gets the tactical advantage as the lone speed with the rail draw. But I believe the Euros have the advantage, as usual. Although these colts might not be performing up to par across the pond, it’s typical for the B and C strings to come to the U.S. and dominate.
Since there isn’t any speed to speak of besides Tank, that’s the direction I’m going to take. He isn't the classiest runner in the field, but having no one put a lot of pressure on him up front might even the odds. Because of the lone speed angle, this is going to be a case of where I put an exotics pick in my top spot, mostly for value.
From there, it’s a game of darts from the Euros.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 3. Luther | 1. Tank |
| 5. Test Score | 3. Luther |
| 1. Tank | 4. New Century |
| 6. Final Gambit | 7. World Beater |