Head to Head: Divided opinion on wide open Black-Eyed Susan
Friday's $300,000 Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes is the filly equivalent of the Preakness Stakes a day later. Both events are exclusively for three-year-olds, and the 1 1/8 mile Black-Eyed Susan attracted a field of nine for its 150th rendition.
With the nation’s best fillies having contested the Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago, the Black-Eyed Susan has come up short on star power. Unlike the Preakness, which is the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Black-Eyed Susan holds no such distinction, meaning that here is no incentive for the Oaks runners to wheel back in two weeks.
While there is little by way of star power, the Black-Eyed Susan will make for a good betting race. Pimlico’s Dan Illman made Runnin and Gunnin, the Sunland Park Oaks winner who was subsequently well beaten in the Fantasy (G2), the tepid 5-2 morning line favorite. That is fitting for a field that lacks a graded winner and has just two stakes winners.
Post time for the Black-Eyed Susan, which is race 13 on the 14-race card, is 5:44 p.m. EDT. The Baltimore area anticipates rain Thursday through Saturday. While it is forecast to be wet, there is a significant variability in which areas could see the most rain dependent on where the thunderstorms blow through.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast wade through the field looking for the filly that will become a first time graded stakes winner.
| LAURIE | ASHLEY |
| 1. Liam in the Dust (6-1) | |
| Liam in the Dust is the only Black-Eyed Susan contender with a 1 1/8 mile race on her resume. She placed an indifferent third, bested 7 3/4 lengths, in the Demoiselle (G2) last year. The Rodolphe Brisset trainee showed speed and fade in the Busher Stakes, her first start off the layoff, and noticeably improved in an allowance class race at Keeneland. Although unfocused and wandering down the muddy lane, Liam in the Dust closed late to finish 3 /4 length behind Paris Lilly. She received a career-best 88 Brisnet speed rating and should improve in her third start off the layoff. Liam in the Dust has a middle-distance pedigree. Liam’s Map is the sire of Burnham Square, this year’s Blue Grass (G1) hero. Liam in the Dust’s distaff line includes Grade 1 winning sprinter, Harmony Lodge, Arkansas Derby winners Graeme Hall and Magnum Moon, plus Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner Pinehurst. Liam in the Dust does her best work as a pacesetter or presser. She prefers to be on the outside, and her two worst performances were when she was on the rail. John Velazquez rides for the first time, and hopefully, will be able to steer her outside of horses. Exotics. | Trained by Rodolphe Brisset, Liam in the Dust is coming off a second-place finish to Paris Lily in the slop in an optional claimer at Keeneland. The margin of victory was just 3/4 length, and Liam in the Dust chased Paris Lily around the entirety of the track. She finished behind Amarth two starts back in the Busher, checking in eighth, 23 1/2 lengths behind the winner. Like Laurie said, Liam in the Dust does have previous experience at 1 1/8 mile having finished third to Muhimma and Ballerina d’Oro, neither of whom are in this race, in the Demoiselle (G2) to finish out 2024. Overall, Liam in the Dust has not shown much in stakes company. She lost the Alcibiades (G1) and Busher by a combined 68 3/4 lengths. She did give a fair effort in the Demoiselle (G2) and Pocahontas (G3), however, but she is clearly inconsistent. The 88 Equibase speed figure she earned at Keeneland last month was a career best. The rail draw is unfortunate for a filly that prefers to be outside of rivals, but John Velazquez, who has the mount, is a savvy rider. Brisset is 15% wins with a 40% in-the-money clip over the last year. Exotics. |
| 2. Princess Aliyah (15-1) | |
| Princess Aliyah was unplaced in both graded starts after winning her previous race. Did she regress, was class the issue, or was it because she was taken out of her preferred pacesetting-pressing running style? Princess Aliyah has a classic distance pedigree. Into Mischief’s pretty gray daughter is half to Alabama (G1) winner Eskimo Kisses, and Grade 1-placed sprinter Silver Ride. Her second dam is 1988 champion 3-Year-Old Filly and Kentucky Derby heroine Winning Colors. The Wayne Lukas trainee is inconsistent, and while I would love to recommend Winning Colors’ granddaughter, I’ll have to pass. | Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Princess Aliyah enters off a 10th-place finish in the 7-furlong Eight Belles (G2) on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. She broke slowly, raced in 10th throughout the duration of the race, and finished 14 1/4 lengths behind the winner. As Laurie indicated, she was unplaced in her other graded start, finishing sixth in the Fantasy (G2). She did squeeze a victory in the Valley of the Vapors Stakes between those two starts, however. Laurie shows that Princess Aliyah has a phenomenal pedigree, but her performance on the track so far has not lived up to what one would expect from her, even when she gets her preferred trip. Nik Juarez has the call. Pass. |
| 3. Margie's Intention (3-1) | |
| Margie's Intention takes a shot at the big time after a pair of wins and bridesmaid finishes in state-bred races at the Fair Grounds. In her last two starts, she chased loose-on-the-lead Blue Fire but wouldn’t pass. Blue Fire returned to finish second in the Eight Belles (G2) on the Oaks undercard. New to the Brad Cox Barn, Margie's Intention has closed or extended her lead in four of five starts, a good sign that she may handle the extra furlong. Margie's Intention has a miler type middle distance pedigree. Second-crop sire Honor A.P. hasn’t sired a winner beyond 1 1/16 miles, although his son, Preakness contender, Heart of Honor (GB), was second by a nose in the UAE Derby. Class skips to the third generation of Margie's Intention’s distaff line and includes Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf hero Hootenanny and Grade 1 winning sprinter Cat Moves. Margie's Intention’s most eye-catching performance was an 11-length victory over a sloppy Fair Grounds track. Although Margie's Intention is shipping for the first time, jumping in class and distance, her Brisnet ratings waver in the low to upper 80s, while her late pace figures are some of the best in the Black-Eyed Susan field. Additionally, Margie's Intention is a grinder who can settle off the pace. Exotics. | Now in the hands of Brad Cox, Margie’s Intention gets away from Louisiana-bred standout Blue Fire while also taking a shot at open company after having strictly faced state-breds. Blue Fire did successfully make the jump to open company in the Eight Belles (G2), so it stands to reason that Margie’s Intention should perform similarly. Cox is 50% wins with a 75% in-the-money rate first after a trainer switch from four starters in the past year. If we extend that out to five years, we still see an excellent 30% wins with a 56% in-the-money rate. Flavien Prat will have the mount for the first time. Contender. |
| 4. Runnin N Gunnin (5-2) | |
| Runnin N Gunnin has hit the board in all three starts in 2025 while rising in company each time. She was the best of the rest in the Fantasy (G2), where Quietside and Simply Joking were in a private match race in front. The Steve Asmussen trainee finished 3 1/4 lengths in front of the fourth-place filly and bested Kinzie Queen and Princess Aliyah. With Empire Maker, A.P. Indy and Nijinsky as her first three damsires, Runnin N Gunnin has the pedigree to run all day on dirt or turf. Gun Runner’s daughter is out of Empire Maker’s Group 3 winning turf router, Charity Belle. Runnin N Gunnin’s half-sister Alms is a multiple graded sprinter-miler, and half-sister Hallie Belle is a multiple stakes-winning miler. Runnin N Gunnin’s third dam Bankers Lady was a multiple Grade 1 winner from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/4 miles. The pretty gray Runnin N Gunnin earned a career-best 82 speed rating in the Fantasy. She isn’t facing the same caliber here. Contender. | Trained by Steve Asmussen, Runnin and Gunnin was last seen finishing third in the Fantasy (G2). Prior to that, she won the Sunland Park Oaks by 4 3/4 lengths. After her third place finish in the Fantasy, Asmussen indicated that the Black-Eyed Susan would be the filly’s next start, so she’s been training for this rather than falling back on it. This filly likes to make one sustained move, but she’s most effective when she’s not too far off the pace. I like the jockey switch to Jose Ortiz, and I’m confident that he will put her in a spot that will showcase her talent best. I don’t love that her best Equibase speed figure is an 85, but she has improved with each start this year. Look for her to take another step forward. Contender. |
| 5. Kinzie Queen (10-1) | |
| Kinzie Queen was outclassed in both starts outside of optional claiming company. Kinzie Queen may find 1 1/8 miles at the top of her distance range. Second-ranked second-crop sire McKinzie doesn’t have a winner beyond 1 1/16 miles. However, his son Baeza was third in the Kentucky Derby. Kinzie Queen’s dam, A. P.'s Glory, is a stakes-winning sprinter. Kinzie Queen’s half-brother Givemetwenty is a stakes winning turf miler and half-brother Spoiler is stakes placed at 1 1/8 miles over the lawn. Only one of her three half-siblings hit the board on an off track. The Greg Compton trainee appears up against it. Pass. | Trained by Greg Compton, Kinzie Queen enters off a victory in a high level optional claimer at Oaklawn Park. She earned a career and field best 94 Equibase speed figure for the effort. However, she was completely outclassed in the Fantasy (G2) and the Year’s End Stakes. Compton is 0% across the board in graded stakes races over the past year, and that number does not change when looking back over the past five years. Kentucky Derby winning rider Junior Alvarado has the call. Pass. |
| 6. Paris Lily (8-1) | |
| In her two victories, Paris Lily firmly established that she is a pacesetter. She’s ready to dip her hoof into graded company after beating optional claimers in her last start, including Liam in the Dust. Paris Lily completed 1 1/16 miles over a speed-favoring sloppy track in 1:45.52, comparable to other times during the day. She may find 1 1/8 miles at the top of her distance range. City of Light’s offspring win up to 1 1/4 miles. However, Paris Lily’s immediate family includes international turf sprinters and milers. Her half-brothers Gold City and First Down are stakes placed sprinter-milers, although Gold City was second in the UAE Al Maktoum Challenge (G2) at 1 3/16 miles. Paris Lily’s second dam Crimplene is a multiple Group 1 winner from a mile to 1 1/4 miles. The Brendan Walsh trainee matured since February and earned a career-best 89 speed rating in her last start. She recorded a bullet five-furlong move in 1:00.60 for the Black-Eyed Susan and will be part of the speed contingent. Exotics. | Trained by Brendan Walsh, Paris Lily enters off an optional claiming victory in which she went gate-to-wire, defeating runner-up Liam in the Dust by 3/4 lengths. In her only other start in 2025, the Godolphin homebred tried turf for the first time and acquitted herself well. She pressed the pace from fourth before putting in a bid to finish second, beaten by just 1 1/2 lengths. Walsh tried Paris Lily on the Oaks trail back in December, but the filly didn’t show much then. She faded to seventh after pressing the pace from second, beaten by 7 1/2 lengths. She has improved in her last three starts, including that try on turf, culminating with an 89 Equibase speed figure. Joel Rosario was aboard the filly last out and retains the mount here. Contender. |
| 7. Reply (8-1) | |
| One of two local hopes, Reply closed nine lengths through a slow pace in the Weber City Miss Stakes to just miss the victory by 3/4 length. She came out and bumped with Moon Cache in the stretch, which made her lose attention briefly. Once separated from that one, Reply kicked it back into gear. Reply has a middle-distance pedigree. Curlin’s daughter is out of the multiple stakes-winning sprinter Special Relativity. Her damsire is Cowboy Cal, a multiple graded winner at 1 1/8 miles. There’s no other class in three generations of Reply’s distaff line, although her fourth dam, Nany, was a solid competitor, making 38 starts, most of them in stakes. The Brittany Russell trainee is making her third lifetime start. She’s jumping in class and facing more experienced foes, but has tactical speed, and her 98 late pace figure earned in the Weber City Miss Stakes is the highest in the field. She could surprise. Live long shot. | Trained by Brittany Russell, Reply only debuted in March. She was unveiled in a one mile affair at Colonial Downs and closed to win by 2 3/4 lengths. She followed that up with a close second in the Weber City Miss Stakes at Laurel, finishing a head in front of third-place finisher Moon Cache. Reply faced just four rivals in her debut, and only the runner-up has found success since then, rattling off two straight wins. Meanwhile, the Weber City Miss field included a couple of stakes placed fillies and a stakes winner. Reply’s speed figures are on the lower side, and Russell is 0% wins with a 38% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last year, per Race Lens. Reply has managed to play bumper cars in both career starts, and if she can get a clean run, her focus could improve in her third lifetime start. Irad Ortiz Jr. gets the call, and he and Russell are 17% wins with a 42% in-the-money rate together over the last year. Exotics. |
| 8. Amarth (4-1) | |
| In the Busher Stakes, her first start as a 3-year-old, Amarth looked like a winner at the top of the stretch, but was surprised late by Drexel Hill, who returned to finish best of the rest in the Kentucky Oaks. Amarth then returned in the Ashland (G1). She had a wide trip and was keen early, running with her head up and climbing. She never gained focus and finished a non-threatening fifth. Amarth may find 1 1/8 miles at the top of her distance range. Also by McKinzie, Amarth is out of Criminal Mischief, a stakes-placed sprinter. Amarth’s half-sibling won on an off track. Their second dam is a half-sister to the solid sire and broodmare sire Distorted Humor. The Eddie Kenneally trainee fired a pre-race five-furlong bullet move in 1:00.80 at Keeneland. Amarth’s speed ratings fit with the rest of the field, she has tactical speed and can improve in her third start off the layoff. Exotics. | Trained by Eddie Kenneally, Amarth was last seen finishing fifth, beaten 8 3/4 lengths, in the Ashland (G1). She ran three times on the Kentucky Oaks trail, accumulating 35 points with a second place finish in the Busher as her best effort. Due to injuries and defections, she did end up having enough points to make the Oaks field but ended up passing. It’s worth noting that the filly that ran her down in the Busher, Drexel Hill, came back to run second in the Oaks. Amarth likely was a bit further off the pace at Keeneland than she would have preferred, so if she runs back to her Busher form, she’ll be formidable here. Kenneally is 8% wins with a 58% in-the-money rate with runners third off the layoff. Luis Saez gets the return call from the Ashland (G1). Contender. |
| 9. Moon Cache (20-1) | |
| Moon Cache showed improvement in her last two starts after Michael Gorham claimed her in February. Although she won the Beyond The Wire Stakes, Moon Cache was unfocused and drifting around the track, resulting in a disqualification after shifting into the path of another filly who narrowly avoided an accident. She was also unfocused in the Weber City Miss Stakes and was bested a head by Reply for second place. Moon Cache may find 1 1/8 miles at the top of her distance range. Stakes-winning sprinter Mosler has one winner from 18 starters at 1 1/8 miles. That victory came from Moon Cache’s full brother, who won an allowance optional claiming race at Pimlico. Two of Moon Cache’s siblings won on off tracks. Their second dam is half to Buy the Sport, a Grade 1 winner at 1 1/18 miles. Moon Cache earned an 87 speed rating in both of her last two starts. She’s a big, lumbering filly who is unfocused without someone to run with. She has tactical speed as a pace presser or setter. Moon Cache is game, and perhaps she can buddy up with a passing filly to gain a minor award, but I’ll pass. | Trained by Michael Gorham, Moon Cache was last seen finishing third in the Weber City Miss Stakes, beaten for it all by just 3/4 lengths. Two starts back she crossed the line first in the Beyond the Wire Stakes but was disqualified to second for interfering with Safe Trust, who was put up to first, in deep stretch. The daughter of Mosler began her year by winning a claiming race in which she was picked up for $40,000 by her current connections and has raced exclusively at Laurel Park. Gorham is 0% across the board in graded stakes over the last five years, sending out just Omaha Omaha to a ninth-place finish in the Wood Memorial (G2) in April. Gorham’s last graded victory came in 2007 when Adore the Gold won the Swale (G2). Raul Mena has the return call. Pass. |
Final Thoughts
Laurie: Since 2013, winners of the Black-Eyed Susan were making their third or fourth start off the layoff and placed worse than fourth in their final prep, generally a graded stakes.
Pace pressers and midpack types have ruled. A few closers and pacesetters won, but they were the exception. In 2017 and 2018, the contest was held over a sloppy track. A pace presser and closer won.
Outside posts fared the best. One filly won from the rail, but most who broke from post 1 finished off the board. Last year’s Gun Song was the first favorite to win since 2011. In 2020, 2022 and 2023, the favorites finished second and third. Otherwise, favorites finished off the board.
The Black-Eyed Susan is a tough race to handicap. A case could be made for practically every filly in the field. Previous editions of the race weren’t any easier, as only two favorites in 13 years have won, and four of the last five years resulted in double-digit win payouts. Add the likelihood of a sloppy track and we have a conundrum.
So, the historical Black-Eyed Susan winner is making her third or fourth start off the layoff and hit the board in her last start.
Runnin N Gunnin fits the historical profile. She’ll love the extra distance and was best of the rest in the Fantasy Stakes behind two top class fillies. She’s the morning line favorite, but that could change by post time.
Reply will also love the extra distance, and this $450,000 Keeneland Yearling purchase by Repole Stable may go to the post as the favorite. The minor knock is that she’s a one-paced closer, although if Irad keeps her a little closer to the pace, she could pull the upset.
Margie's Intention has won over a sloppy track and she has tactical speed. Her pedigree isn’t the best for 1 1/8 miles, but she could earn a minor award.
Liam in the Dust handles a sloppy track and has the pedigree for 1 1/8 miles. The drawback is that her two worst races were when she was on the rail. Otherwise, she would be a win contender.
Paris Lily is a confirmed pacesetter and loves the slop, but she barely held off Liam in the Dust at Keeneland. Paris Lilly has Moon Cashe to her outside and Liam to the Dust to her inside, she could lead them on a merry chase. The drawback is whether she can handle the extra distance or if she will wilt in the stretch.
Amarth has potential, she was second to Drexel Hill at a mile, but she was no threat in the Ashland after a wide trip.
Ashley: I don’t even know where to start with this field as it feels like I’m handicapping a listed stakes rather than a grade two event on such an important weekend.
I like to look at pace scenarios, as we all know, so let’s just start there. Liam in the Dust, Paris Lily, Amarth and Moon Cache all look to be fillies that will go early. Liam in the Dust, despite drawing the rail, at least has a four gate cushion between herself and the next speed type. This gives John Velazquez the option of breaking sharply and immediately getting off the rail or breaking a little less sharply and trying to steer his filly behind the speedier rivals and off the rail.
Race Lens’s True Odds anticipates a quick early pace from the speedier half of the field, setting things up for runners like the favored Runnin and Gunnin.
I like Margie’s Intention on the step up in class. Blue Fire did well in the Eight Belles (G2), and I believe the Cox filly is just as talented. Despite her mediocre showing at Keeneland, I do like Amarth, too. This is a significant step down in class for her, so I anticipate her moving forward off that effort. Runnin and Gunnin faced two very classy fillies in the Fantasy (G2) and also gets class relief. So she’s another I expect to see put her best hoof forward.
SELECTIONS
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 7. Reply (8-1) | 3. Margie’s Intention (3-1) |
| 4. Runnin N Gunnin (5-2) | 8. Amarth (8-1) |
| 1. Liam in the Dust (6-1) | 4. Runnin and Gunnin (5-2) |
| 3. Margie’s Intention (3-1) | 6. Paris Lily (8-1) |