Head to Head: Choices are easy for Jim Dandy at Saratoga
The $500,000, Grade 2 Jim Dandy is the major local prep for the mid-summer Derby, formally known as the Traver Stakes (G1). With the Haskell Stakes (G1) run this past weekend and with double the available purse money, the Jim Dandy drew only five starters. What it’s lacking in quantity, however, it more than makes up for in quality.
Last weekend’s Haskell gave us a rematch between Journalism, who ran second, first and second in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont respectively, and the upstart Gosger, who was poised to upset the Preakness before Journalism blew right past him in the stretch. The Jim Dandy will give us a rematch between Derby and Belmont hero Sovereignty, Derby and Belmont third-place finisher Baeza, and Preakness third-place finisher Sandman. If the Haskell was any indication, then the Jim Dandy should be another epic event in this year’s race for champion 3-year-old honors.
The Jim Dandy is the 10th race on Saratoga’s 12-race card. Saturday’s key event is slated to go to post at 5:41 p.m. EDT.
We weigh the pros and cons of the three Triple Crown alumni and the two relatively new shooters to determine whether Sovereignty remains the leader of the crop.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Baeza | |
| A son of McKinzie, and half to Kentucky Derby hero Mage and Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, Baeza finished third in the Derby and Belmont Stakes. McKinzie and his offspring are solid middle-distance types, and the cutback to 1 1/8 miles should help. The John Shirreffs trainee should show more speed breaking from the rail, and Hector Berrios’s return to the saddle. Baeza can upset the applecart. Win contender. | Trained by John Shirreffs, Baeza has been as tough luck as Gosger this year. Both colts have performed admirably at the highest level but have had the misfortune to be in the same crop as Journalism and Sovereignty. This regally bred colt finished second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and third in both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont. He’s a helluva colt, but he’s facing Sovereignty once again. With a trio of triple-digit Brisnet speed ratings leading into this race, I anticipate we will once again see Baeza test the best. Hector Berrios takes back over from Flavien Prat. Contender. |
| 2. Sandman | |
| The quirky, late-running Sandman finally gets blinkers to keep him focused on moving forward instead of sideways. The one-run closer is talented but consistently finds trouble, resulting in few victories but many second- and third-place finishes. Perhaps we’ll see a more focused Sandman. Mark Casse gave the pretty gray colt a bullet, pre-race, five-furlong breeze in 59.8 seconds. Sandman flashed early speed at the start of his career, so perhaps the blinkers will keep him a little closer to the pace. Contender. | Trained by Mark Casse, Sandman was last seen finishing third in the Preakness after Journalism blew right past him and Gosger in the stretch. As Laurie pointed out, and as we already knew from Griffin Johnson’s social media posts, Sandman will race with blinkers for the first time. Casse is 14% wins with a 47% in-the-money clip with that angle, per Race Lens. Like Laurie, I’m hopeful that the blinkers will sharpen up this colt a bit because he won’t be able to afford to lay too far off the pace in this short field. Jose Ortiz has the mount. Exotics. |
| 3. Mo Plex | |
| A New York-bred, Mo Plex was successful against graded and restricted types as a sprinter-miler. He took his form on the road to Thistledown and galloped home a two-length winner in the 1 1/8-mile Ohio Derby (G3). A confirmed pacesetter-presser, the Jeremiah Englehart trainee’s Brisnet E1, E2, and late-pace figures show Mo Plex expends his energy evenly. He’s taking a class leap, and his speed ratings aren’t triple-digit, yet he’s worth an exotics look in case one of the top three has trouble or doesn’t run his race. | Trained by Jeremiah Englehart, Mo Plex enters off a two-length victory in the Ohio Derby over multiple graded-stakes-placed Chunk of Gold. This confirmed front-runner is 2-for-2 at Saratoga by virtue of victories in the Sanford (G3) and the Funny Cide Stakes as a juvenile. He earned Grade 1 placing in the Champagne, but that field maxed out at the Grade 3 level since then. although he will have the tactical advantage, he will need to take a big step forward off his career-best 97 Brisnet Speed Rating last out. Manny Franco has the call. Exotics. |
| 4. Hill Road | |
| The highlight of Hill Road’s career was a 3/4-length victory in the Peter Pan (G3) over a nondescript field. Two returned to finish behind Mo Plex in Ohio, one placed seventh in the Belmont Stakes, and none have won against lesser fields. A one-run closer, this Chad Brown trainee’s Brisnet speed ratings have improved, and he owns four triple-digit late-pace figures. But he must prove he belongs with the big boys. Pass. | Trained by Chad Brown, Hill Road looked like he could develop into a legitimate Triple Crown contender off a shocking third-place run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and again in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). He did win the Peter Pan but had no answer for the top three from the Kentucky Derby in the Belmont, finishing fifth by 9 1/2 lengths. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the call. Pass. |
| 5. Sovereignty | |
| Sovereignty rolled to the top of the 3-year-old division with victories in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont. We’ll forever wonder if he could have won the Preakness. The Bill Mott trainee showed he wasn’t a one-dimensional closer in the Belmont Stakes, and his speed ratings keep improving. The outside post is the perfect position for his long, ground-covering stride. Win contender. | Trained by Bill Mott, Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Sovereignty needs no introduction. We just saw Journalism and Gosger flatter the Triple Crown form last weekend by running 1-2 in the Haskell (G1). He earned a field- and career-best 111 Brisnet Speed Rating in the Belmont. He also received a crop-best 109 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form for the Belmont. There’s really nothing else to say. Junior Alvarado has the call. One to beat. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: The majority of the last 15 Jim Dandy heroes competed in the Belmont Stakes with varying results. Two pulled off the Belmont-Jim Dandy victory.
Pace pressers are the most successful, followed by closers. Two pacesetters won.
Beaten favorite is a Saratoga theme. Five of the last 15 Jim Dandy favorites got the job done. Most of the rest finished second or third, with two placing fourth.
From 2014 to present day, the number of Jim Dandy contenders ranged from four to six. Include the horse breaking from post no. 1 in your tickets. Only five of 15 finished worse than fourth, two won and six were second or third.
I don’t expect any surprises in the Jim Dandy and state the obvious. Yes, boring, but what do you expect in a five-horse field with three classic contenders? We saw similar results in the Haskell, and if the top trio from each race contests the Travers, then Ashley and I will spend a few hours agonizing over the order of our top four.
Sovereignty was my pick for the Derby and Belmont. I’m not changing horses. His pedigree and size show that he’ll only improve. He could be a powerhouse as a 4-year-old. Hopefully, Godolphin won’t be in a hurry to earn those stud fees at the end of the year.
Baeza has tactical speed, and I believe he is more effective as a middle-distance horse. I vote him most likely to give Sovereignty trouble, especially if Baeza can get some distance from the field in the stretch.
Sandman expends the most energy mid-race making up ground, and his late-pace figures range from 74 to the 90s, with just two triple-digit late pace figures. Maybe he’ll show tactical speed with blinkers. Only Sandman and Ortiz know.
Ashley: There’s not much for me to add. Sovereignty, Baeza and Sandman all enter off a combined 6: 2-0-3 in the Triple Crown races. Journalism and Gosger, who were a combined 4: 1-3-0 in those races, proved that the Triple Crown form was no fluke in their first post-Triple Crown starts.
|
| Ky. Derby | Preakness | Belmont |
| Sovereignty | 1st | 1st | |
| Journalism | 2nd | 1st | 2nd |
| Baeza | 3rd | 3rd | |
| Sandman | 7th | 3rd | |
| Gosger | 2nd |
Mo Plex is an interesting new shooter in that he appears to be the lone speed. But Baeza should be able to keep in close contact with him and press the issue. Sovereignty and Hill Road come from off the pace. Sandman, however, becomes a bit of a wildcard. He normally is a closer, but the added blinkers could give the colt a new dimension.
Needless to say, I’ll be taking the Triple Crown alumni for my triple. It won’t pay much, but it’ll sure be fun to watch.
Selections
Laurie | Ashley |
| 5. Sovereignty | 5. Sovereignty |
| 1. Baeza | 1. Baeza |
| 2. Sandman | 2. Sandman |
|
|
|