Head to Head: Is Mystik Dan the pick at Churchill Downs?
The sixth edition of the Grade 3, $275,000 Blame Stakes attracted 10 competitive older horses who will tackle 1 1/8 miles at Churchill Downs on Saturday. The Grade 3 event serves as a local prep for the Stephen Foster (G1) on June 28.
The event features last year’s Kentucky Derby hero Mystik Dan, who can improve in his second start off the layoff.
The Blame Stakes is carded as race 10 of 11 with a 5:27 p.m. EDT post time.
Here, we sift through the contenders to see who will take the Blame.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Katonah (20-1) | |
| Katonah is cross-entered in an allowance race on Sunday. He finally gets a class drop after being thrashed by Grade 1 and Grade 2 types last year. Although he ran down Express Train in the San Pasqual (G2), he was outclassed in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) and Dubai World Cup (G1). The Doug O’Neill trainee was flat outrun in the Alysheba (G2) in his first start since returning from Dubai. Katonah has hit the board three times since 2023. Perhaps it’s time for a new career. Pass. | Trained by Doug O’Neill, Katonah enters off a sixth-place finish in the Alysheba. He began his year with a two-length victory in the Pasqual before throwing in three straight off-the-board finishes, including the Alysheba. He does technically get class relief here, but Most Wanted and Hall of Fame, second and third in the Alysheba respectively, return in this spot also. Gerardo Corrales, who is 0% wins with a 9% in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last year, has the mount. Pass. |
| 2. Alexander Helios (6-1) | |
| A very consistent sort, Alexander Helios flattened like a spent balloon in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2), checking in 10 lengths behind First Mission. It was his first start since capturing the Razorback (G3) by a head in February over Banishing, and he may have regressed off the career-best 104 Brisnet Speed Rating earned from that effort. Additionally, he was asked to rate farther back in the Razorback instead of his usual pacesetting-pressing style. I’m drawing a line through that experiment and predict the Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee will be part of the pace scenario. I’m not convinced he’ll handle 1 1/8 miles against this group while being pressed. Pass. | Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., Alexander Helios was last seen finishing fifth in the Oaklawn Handicap. It was a regression off his career-best race in his prior start in which he won the Razorback Handicap, earning a 115 Equibase speed figure. The 5-year-old likes Churchill Downs, and although he may not get 1 1/8 miles against this group, leaving him off the ticket is ill-advised. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the call. Exotics. |
| 3. Antiquarian (15-1) | |
| Antiquarian showed promise in the Peter Pan (G3) last year but wasn’t ready for the big leagues in the Belmont Stakes. After almost a year off, the Todd Pletcher trainee surfaced at Gulfstream in a seven-furlong optional claiming event, opening up with an easy 2 1/2-length victory. Antiquarian was timed in 1:22.96, recorded a 12.7-second8 final furlong, and earned a 97 speed rating. Decent, but not so high that he can’t improve. Antiquarian has tactical speed and can settle behind the pacesetters. But he has a win-lose form dating back to his debut. Pass. | Trained by Todd Pletcher, Antiquarian made his comeback a winning one with a facile 2 1/2-length victory in a seven-furlong sprint. By the numbers, it was a career best for the colt. He received a 98 Equibase speed figure, one point better than the 97 he earned in both the Peter Pan and the Belmont. Pletcher is 20% wins with a 50% in-the-money rate with trainees second off the layoff. He’s also 22% wins with a 50% in-the-money rate with sprint-to-route runners. Regular jockey John Velazquez reunites with Antiquarian after missing his last start. Exotics. |
| 4. Mystik Dan (4-1) | |
| After his Kentucky Derby upset, Mystik Dan placed second in the Preakness, then had nothing to offer in the Belmont. He really needed a vacation but was embarrassed in two subsequent starts. After a brief freshening, Mystik Dan came oh so close in a thrilling edition of the Lake Ouachita Stakes at Oaklawn. The Ken McPeek trainee gave Saudi Crown all he could handle down the stretch but couldn’t get by the older horse, settling for second best by a nose. It was an excellent attempt by Mystik Dan, as he earned a 98 speed rating. The Lake Ouachita was Mystic Dan’s first race as a pace presser since last January. He has tactical speed but is generally at his best on the rail. Is Mystic Dan back, or was it a one-off? I liked him in last year’s Derby, and I like him here. Contender. | Trained by Kenny McPeek, last year’s Kentucky Derby winner seems to be rounding back into top form. He began his year with an abysmal showing in the Pegasus World Cup (G1), finishing ninth and beaten by 20 3/4 lengths. He got significant class relief last out while contesting the Lake Ouachita Stakes. He dueled with Saudi Crown throughout the 1 1/16-mile affair and came up a nose shy. He received a career-best 116 Equibase speed figure. We certainly could see some regression off that effort, especially considering that his speed figure took a 37-point jump. Regular jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. reunites with the colt. Contender. |
| 5. Best Actor (30-1) | |
| Best Actor gets the golden raspberry award for his last four performances. He hasn’t finished within a ZIP code of the winner since a head defeat in last year’s Mineshaft (G3). The Ed Moger Jr. trainee’s speed ratings are dropping, and perhaps it’s time for this 6-year-old to exit stage left. Pass. | Trained by Ed Moger Jr., Best Actor has only been impersonating a serious race horse these days. He started his career running well in Grade 3 and listed events but has done nothing but regress since running second in last year’s Mineshaft Stakes (G3). Moger is 5: 1-0-0 in graded stakes over the last year. He’s also 0% wins with a 50% in-the-money clip with the blinkers off angle. Rafael Bejarano has the call. Pass. |
| 6. Hall of Fame (8-1) | |
| Briefly on last year’s Kentucky Derby trail, Hall of Fame has matured into a multiple-graded contender. He chased Touch Upon a Star through slow fractions around the Fair Grounds oval in the New Orleans Classic (G2) but couldn’t catch the winner, finishing a clear second, two lengths in front of Sierra Leone. Touch Upon a Star was amid a five-race win streak. Hall of Fame chased Fierceness and Most Wanted in the Alysheba (G2) but wasn’t in the league of the top pair. Still, this Steve Asmussen trainee reeled off a pair of triple-digit Brisnet Speed Ratings, and his late-pace figures are competitive. Exotics. | Trained by Steve Asmussen, Hall of Fame wasn’t ready for the rigors of the Triple Crown trail last year. After a 10th-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2), Asmussen gave the colt an extended break. It worked wonders as Hall of Fame is 5: 3-1-1 since his return. He won the Mineshaft (G3), was second in the New Orleans Classic, and third in the Alysheba. Fierceness, a multiple Grade 1 winner, isn’t running back in this spot, giving Hall of Fame the opportunity to improve his finish here. The colt has posted triple-digit Equibase speed figures in every start since his return. Jose Ortiz has the call. Contender. |
| 7. Most Wanted (7-2) | |
| Most Wanted is cross-entered in the same race as Katonah. After scoring four straight victories, Most Wanted placed second in a trio of graded stakes against older, more accomplished foes. Last year, he just missed the Clark (G2) victory by 3/4 length to multiple graded winner Rattle N Roll but finished in front of his stablemate and eventual Dubai World Cup (G1) winner Hit Show. In his first start of the season, this half-brother to Life Is Good faced recent Hollywood Gold Cup (G2) winner Skippylongstocking, and more recently was second to last year’s Travers hero Fierceness in the Alysheba while beating Hall of Fame. Contender. | Trained by Brad Cox, Most Wanted has not been out of the exacta in his career. He began by going 4-for-4, including winning the Oklahoma Derby (G3). As Laurie said, he since has run second in a trio of graded races. Give credit where credit is due. The trio who he lost to is none other than hard-knocking Rattle N Roll, multiple graded-stakes winner Skippylongstocking, and multiple Grade 1 winner Fierceness. Regular jockey Florent Geroux retains the mount. Contender. |
| 8. Banishing (9-2) | |
| Banishing owns four consecutive triple-digit speed ratings and has placed first or second in each start since last October. The David Jacobson trainee upped his game this year, winning or placing in four graded stakes, including a tenacious one-length victory over Saudi Crown in the Oaklawn Mile (G3). Banishing’s most impressive start was in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1). First, he was pinched at the start and was left at the back of the pack. Then Banishing faced a wall of horses in the stretch. He squeezed through a hole on the inside and fought to the wire in a four-way battle. Banishing missed the photo by a neck to Mindframe and was second in a dead heat with Nysos. He earned a 104 late-pace figure, the highest in the Blame field. Contender. | Trained by David Jacobson, I had high hopes for Banishing at the beginning of his career, hopes that were not realized. But after being gelded, Banishing returned a brand new man. Discounting his first start back, which was a complete disaster, he has not failed to run in the exacta. He worked his way up from claiming to allowance to listed stakes to now being Grade 1 placed. He’s quite versatile, running well from six furlongs to nine furlongs. He recently just missed the Churchill Downs Stakes by a neck after closing furiously from the back. Banishing earned a field- and career-best 116 Equibase speed figure when winning the Oaklawn Mile. Flavien Prat, who was aboard for that race, gets the leg up. Contender. |
| 9. Post Time (3-1) | |
| Post Time never has finished off the board. He’s capable in weaker graded races and reliably closes for a check against Grade 1 types, including last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. The Brittany Russell trainee destroyed a field of allowance types at Laurel by 13 lengths in his first start of the season, earning a 107 speed rating and a 100 late-pace figure despite being hand ridden through the stretch. Contender. | Trained by Brittany Russell, Post Time has had quite a productive career for one of Maryland’s leading trainers. Russell doesn’t always enjoy the same success outside Maryland, but Post Time has been the exception, winning or placing in graded stakes at Aqueduct, Saratoga and Del Mar, including a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. But Post Time has never raced at Churchill before, and 1 1/8 miles might not be his best distance. Russell is 11% wins with a 39% in-the-money finish on the Kentucky circuit over the last year. Sheldon Russell has the mount. Exotics. |
| 10. Tennessee Lamb (15-1) | |
| By Belmont Stakes hero Tonalist out of a daughter of Smart Strike, Tennessee Lamb was a late-maturing type and has captured his first two dirt starts of the season, including the Ben Ali (G3). The George Arnold trainee fought every step of the way in the 1 3/16-mile event. He lost the lead in the stretch, then stubbornly came back to win by 1 1/2 lengths. Tennessee Lamb doesn’t have the sparkling speed ratings and speed of other contenders, but he’ll run all day and can take advantage of a fast early pace. Long-shot exotics. | Trained by George Arnold, Tennessee Lamb enters off a victory in the Ben Ali. It was a good next-step starting point for the colt who needed eight starts at a variety of tracks, distances and surfaces to break his maiden. But the Ben Ali was not a strong field by any means. The seven runners had exactly three stakes wins, one graded, between them. He gets a significant class check here. Luis Saez has the mount. Pass. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: Since the race was introduced in 2020, only one winner of the Blame Stakes had won their previous race. The other three competitors placed in the money, with all except one showing improvement by gaining ground or extending their lead.
Three pace pressers and two closers were successful in the Blame. Pay attention to horses on the inside. Three of five contenders in post 1 placed first or second, and last year, Highland Falls won from post position 2. Favorites won or placed in three of five editions.
Banishing and Most Wanted are evenly matched. They have similar running styles, faced Grade 1 class runners and lived to tell the tale. Because of their pacesetting running styles, they’re also suspect at 1 1/8 miles.
You know who isn’t suspect at 1 1/8 miles and isn’t generally in the early mix? Mystik Dan. I’m drawing a line through every race after last year’s Preakness. Mystik Dan just missed to the older Saudi Crown, who was making his third start of the year. Mystik Dan has tactical speed, class and will be fit in his second start off the layoff.
The lone stalker in the Blame Stakes, Post Time was in the money against Grade 1 types at Saratoga last year. He gained ground in his last five starts and owns three consecutive triple-digit late-pace speed figures.
Hall of Fame finished a clear second in his last start at 1 1/8 miles. He has tactical speed and always runs his race. Plus, his 8-1 morning line odds are enticing. I can’t pick them all, so if one of the top four scratches, toss him into the mix.
Ashley: Katonah, Best Actor and Most Wanted are cross-entered in race 7 at Churchill Downs on Sunday, June 1. If I was a betting woman, and I am, I’d bet on Katonah and Best Actor waiting to run on Sunday. As for Most Wanted, it would be a crime to not run him in the Blame.
A big reason for running Most Wanted here is that he looks to be the lone speed. Add that to who he has finished behind in his last three races, and you have a recipe for success.
Mystik Dan is a bit suspect off that huge last-out effort. But he likes Churchill Downs and is the only Grade 1 winner in the field.
Hall of Fame and Banishing have come alive as they’ve matured. And if you like Most Wanted, which I do, you have to like Hall of Fame, too, since they’re both coming off a good effort against Fierceness.
This is a very competitive field, and I’m trying hard to not overthink this. I can make a case for seven of these entrants, so it really comes down to who you like the best. For me, it’s these four.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 4. Mystik Dan (4-1) | 7. Most Wanted (7-2) |
| 9. Post Time (3-1) | 4. Mystik Dan (4-1) |
| 7. Most Wanted (7-2) | 6. Hall of Fame (8-1) |
| 8. Banishing (9-2) | 8. Banishing (9-2) |