Head to Head: Can anyone beat Thorpedo Anna in CCA Oaks?
The $500,000, Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks drew a short field of five, with only three trainers willing to send out their charges to face Kentucky Oaks (G1) heroine Thorpedo Anna. George Weaver and Brendan Walsh will take their best shots, and Todd Pletcher sends two to try to beat the heavy favorite.
In the last 11 years, only three fillies have won both the Kentucky Oaks and the Coaching Club American Oaks. Princess of Sylmar did so in 2013, Abel Tasman in 2017 and Monomoy Girl in 2018. Abel Tasman and Monomoy Girl both also took the Acorn (G1) between their starts in the two Oaks races, showing the same race pattern as Thorpedo Anna.
The 1 1/8-mile contest is the 11th race on Saturday’s 12-race card. Approximate post time is 6:17 p.m. EDT.
Laurie Ross of Pedigree Power and Ashley Tamulonis of Coast To Coast debate whether Thorpedo Anna can be beaten by any of her four rivals.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Candied (5-2) | |
| Candied's only off-the-board finish was in her 3-year-old debut, a five-length trouncing in the Ashland Stakes (G1). She beat a lesser group of three fillies in the listed Lady's Secret Stakes in a 4 1/2-length gallop, earning a 98 Brisnet Speed Rating and a 107 late-pace figure, the highest in the CCA Oaks field. Now, she's trying 1 1/8 miles for the first time. Candy Ride's daughter is out of the restricted stakes-winning sprinter Toni Tools. There's speed in Candied's distaff line through damsire Roar, but her sire and second damsire Smart Strike lend stamina to Candied's pedigree, and her off-the-pace running style indicates she may handle the extra distance. The Todd Pletcher trainee had her core workout on July 5, in company with Belmont Stakes runner-up Mind Control. The pair breezed five furlongs in 1:00.75. Candied worked to stay with her mate while running with her head up and on her wrong lead, as usual. Pass. | Trained by Todd Pletcher, Candied is lightly raced and missed the Kentucky Oaks because she didn't amass enough points to make the 14-filly field. Candied has made only two starts this year, a fourth in the Ashland and a confidence-boosting win in the Lady’s Secret Stakes at Monmouth. She earned a career and field-best 104 Equibase speed figure on the Jersey shore. Manny Franco takes over from Joe Bravo. Use underneath. |
| 2. Barbratina (20-1) | |
| Barbratina found sprints and a mile too short but won against optional claimers in her second start at 1 1/8 miles. Her worst performance was in the Gazelle (G3) when she was bumped hard at the start. Bumping is akin to having the wind knocked out of you and being asked to run your best, so I'm tossing that effort. Barbratina was switched to George Weaver's barn and gets another class test. Catholic Boy's daughter is out of a Tapit half-sister to Armony's Angel, the dam of Arkansas Derby (G1) hero Angel of Empire, so there's class in the family. Barbratina is one of three in the field with experience at 1 1/8 miles, but I'll pass. | Trained by George Weaver, Barbratina has two wins from six starts and has missed the exacta only once. While in the care of Brad Cox, the filly finished sixth in the Gazelle. She enters off a head win in an optional claimer at Churchill Downs and will make her first start for Weaver in this spot. Over the last five years, Weaver has sent out six starters first off a trainer change, and he’s 50 percent with that angle, according to Race Lens. Junior Alvarado has the call and will ride the filly for the first time. Pass. |
| 3. Thorpedo Anna (1-2) | |
| Thorpedo Anna is in the same rarified league as 2016 CCA Oaks heroine and champ Songbird. She bested Leslie's Rose in the Acorn by 5 1/2 lengths despite losing a shoe and earned a career-best 101 Brisnet rating. The Ken McPeek trainee towers over her competitors in this second leg of the Triple Tiara. Winner. | Trained by Kenny McPeek, I don’t feel it’s necessary to expound upon Thorpedo Anna’s accomplishments. So I’ll leave it at this: Remember in Disney’s "Hercules" when the Fates told Hades that all nine planets would have to align in order for him to be able to release the Titans? That’s what would need to happen here for Thorpedo Anna to misfire. Regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. retains the mount. Contender. |
| 4. Leslie’s Rose (5-1) | |
| Leslie's Rose has twice seen the hindquarters of Thorpedo Anna fading into the distance in front of her. Toss the Kentucky Oaks result, as this Todd Pletcher trainee clearly didn't like getting her hooves dirty. She had every chance to challenge Thorpedo Anna in the Acorn but had to settle for second best. Expect the same result this time around. Exotics. | Also trained by Todd Pletcher, Leslie’s Rose enters off two straight losses to Thorpedo Anna. In the Kentucky Oaks, the Ashland heroine turned in a disappointing performance, finishing 13th of 14, 44 1/2 lengths behind Thorpedo Anna. Last out, Leslie’s Rose bounced back to run a good race, but she was never a real threat, and finished second, 5 1/4 lengths behind Thorpedo Anna. The Oaks was obviously an anomaly performance as Leslie’s Rose has never been out of the trifecta otherwise. John Velazquez takes over from regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. Use underneath. |
| 5. Intricate (8-1) | |
| Every champion has their nemesis, and Intricate holds the designation as the only filly to finish in front of Thorpedo Anna. Granted, it was in last year's Golden Rod (G2) when Thorpedo Anna was still leaning to get out of the starting gate with everyone else. Intricate hasn't seen the winner's circle since her 5 1/4-length triumph in the Golden Rod. She's come close, but Gun Runner's daughter keeps running out of real estate. Now she gets it but must deal with a more elite group. Exotics. | Trained by Brendan Walsh, Intricate also missed the Kentucky Oaks by virtue of not having enough points. This filly does have the distinguishment of having beaten Thorpedo Anna as a 2-year-old in the Golden Rod, but she hasn’t won since. In 2024, Intricate is 3: 0-2-0, finishing second in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) and the Monomoy Girl Overnight Stakes and fifth in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Regular rider Tyler Gaffalione retains the mount. Pass. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: The CCA Oaks is a race of champions. Five CCA Oaks heroines earned year-end championships in the last dozen years, although only Monomoy Girl (2015) captured the Breeders' Cup Distaff.
During the last 12 years, three fillies didn't win their CCA Oaks prep, with one finishing out of the money. Two closers won, the rest were pacesetters or pressers, and eight favorites won.
Thorpedo Anna dominates this group, and I'd be foolish to try to beat her, so who can fill out the exotics? The rest are pretty closely matched, but I'm taking a stand against Candied. She's capable against lesser, but her quirks, such as not switching leads and running with her head up, have me looking elsewhere.
I expect Leslie's Rose will chase Thorpedo Anna home, and Intricate will close for third.
Ashley: Candied and Intricate both will attempt the CCA Oaks distance of 1 1/8-mile for the first time in their careers. Both fillies are open-length winners at 1 1/16 miles, so the extra sixteenth should not be a problem. Barbratina is 2: 1-0-0 at the distance, Leslie’s Rose is 2: 0-1-0, and Thorpedo Anna is 2-for-2.
Neither Barbratina nor Intricate have made previous starts at The Spa. Meanwhile, Candied (1: 1-0-0) broke her maiden here last summer, Thorpedo Anna (1: 1-0-0) won the Acorn over this course last out, and Leslie’s Rose (1: 0-1-0) was second to Thorpedo Anna in the Acorn.
On paper, Thorpedo Anna is the most likely to set the pace. Although she isn’t a true pacesetter, she did wire the Kentucky Oaks field and would appear to be the most plausible runner to take up that role in this field. Leslie’s Rose is the only other filly in the field who has previously shown early speed. She wired her debut field and was prominent early in her second start but more recently has settled into a presser run style.
This is one of those times when the K.I.S.S. method comes into play. Thorpedo Anna is just that good. I’m singling her on top with Leslie’s Rose and Candied underneath.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 3. Thorpedo Anna (1-2) | 3. Thorpedo Anna (1-2) |
| 4. Leslie's Rose (5-1) | 4. Leslie’s Rose (5-1) |
| 5. Intricate (8-1) | 1. Candied (5-2) |