Head to Head: Brown duo tops talented Ogden Phipps field
The Grade 1 Ogden Phipps is traditionally one of Belmont Park’s marquee races for older fillies and mares and typically carded for 1 1/16 mile. But with Belmont Park in the midst of renovations, the Ogden Phipps, like Belmont’s other stakes races, is being held at Saratoga this year. With the venue change came an adjustment of distance from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 mile.
Randomized won last year’s edition under the new conditions and is back to defend her title this year for Chad Brown. Standing in her way is stablemate Raging Sea, who bested her when both mares made their 2025 debuts in the La Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs. Todd Pletcher sends out tow of his own. The Brown and Pletcher duos will face three other rivals, and all seven fillies and mares entered are graded-stakes winners.
The Ogden Phipps is the ninth race on Saratoga’s 14-race card Friday. Post time is 4:28 p.m. EDT Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely starting Thursday evening and continuing through the weekend.
Here, we tackle a talented field to find out which of these seven graded-stakes winners will walk away with another score.
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 1. Dorth Vader (10-1) | |
| Dorth Vader tangled with the champs Pretty Mischievous and Idiomatic last year and almost bested Pretty Mischievous in the Acorn (G1). In both starts this year, she broke from the rail and had trouble, finishing second in an optional claimer at Gulfstream, then in the mix in the La Troienne but finishing fourth behind Raging Sea and Randomized. George Weaver gave her a pair of decent works over Saratoga’s training track, and although she isn’t in Raging Sea or Randomized’s league, Dorth Vader has the force to hit the exotics. | Trained by George Weaver, Dorth Vader was put on the shelf after mixing it up with the big girls last spring. She came back after nearly 11 months to finish a distant second in a one-mile optional claimer. She then finished a solid fourth in the La Troienne on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. She had a rough start but was always in the fray, eventually missing the win by 1 1/2 lengths in a blanket finish that included Raging Sea and Randomized. Dorth Vader has one previous race at Saratoga, a fourth in the seven-furlong Test (G1), 2 3/4 lengths behind winner Pretty Mischievous. Dorth Vader can further improve third off the layoff, and Weaver is 23% wins with a 49% in-the-money clip with that angle. Regular rider John Velazquez gets the leg up. Exotics. |
| 2. Dazzling Move (15-1) | |
| Dazzling Move is capable against Grade 3 and listed types. She dueled throughout the Allaire DuPont Distaff in her last start but tired and couldn’t hold off Candied. As a daughter of Not This Time, she may love the off-going, as Race Lens shows his babies have a 27% win rate over the off-going at Saratoga. Saffie Joseph Jr. gave Dazzling Move a bullet four-furlong breeze over Saratoga’s training track, but Dazzling Move’s Brisnet late-pace figures are some of the lowest in the field. Pass. | Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., Dazzling Move enters off a second-place finish in the Allaire DuPont Distaff. She dueled with Peignoir right from the start and then was unable to repel the bid of winner Candied. She earned a 92 Brisnet Speed Rating and a career-best 95 Equibase speed figure. Although she may be capable against Grade 3 and listed types, she’s not consistent, going 7: 1-2-1 at that level. Jose Ortiz gets the return call. Pass. |
| 3. Leslie’s Rose (7-2) | |
| Leslie’s Rose bombed in the Kentucky Oaks over a sloppy track but otherwise has been competitive at the Grade 1 level. She finished a clear second to Thorpedo Anna in last year’s Acorn (G1), but the bloom was off in the CCA Oaks (G1) after a long campaign. In the Vagrancy (G3), her first start this season, Leslie’s Rose was stuck in traffic the entire way but held on to third place in grinding fashion. Surprisingly, she earned a career-best Brisnet 102 Speed Rating, and her 93 late pace figure is the highest in the Ogden Phipps field. The Todd Pletcher trainee returned with a solo bullet four-furlong move in 49.25 seconds. Leslie’s Rose makes a strong middle move, her E2 numbers are triple-digit, but she pays a price with low late-pace figures. Although she should be stronger as a 4-year-old, Leslie’s Rose has hit the board in one of three starts at 1 1/8 miles. She has tactical speed, which will help. Exotics. | Trained by Todd Pletcher, Leslie’s Rose went into last year’s Kentucky Oaks with a 4: 3-0-1 record, including a facile victory in the Ashland (G1). As Laurie said, she bombed in the slop in the Oaks and then just wasn’t quite the same afterwards. She did well in the Acorn but then wasn’t even in the same ZIP code when finishing last of four in the CCA Oaks. She was given a long vacation at that point and returned on Kentucky Derby weekend to run a heartbreaking third in the Vagrancy (G3), missing second by a nose and the win by a neck. She earned a career best 104 Equibase speed figure as well as that 102 Brisnet Speed Rating Laurie mentioned. Pletcher is 20% wins with a 50% in-the-money clip with runners second off the layoff over the last year. He’s also 22% wins with a 51% in-the-money clip with sprint to route runners. The big concern is her ability to handle 1 1/8 miles. You can put a line through the Kentucky Oaks, but she really had no excuses in the CCA Oaks. Irad Ortiz Jr. gets the return call. Exotics. |
| 4. Raging Sea (5-2) | |
| Raging Sea was fourth in last year’s Ogden Phipps, but it was her first start off a three-month layoff against an accomplished group. She returned to win three straight and was second to Thorpedo Anna in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. In her first start off the layoff in the La Troienne, Raging Sea made a powerful late move to catch Randomized by 3/4 length. Raging Sea is ready to make waves in the Ogden Phipps. Contender. | Trained by Chad Brown, Raging Sea enters off a victory in the La Troienne in which she defeated Randomized, Dorth Vader and none other than Thorpedo Anna. She loves Saratoga, with a 6: 3-1-0 record over the track, and is brilliant at 1 1/8 miles with an 8: 5-2-0 record at that distance. The La Troienne was the mare’s first start since finishing second to Thorpedo Anna in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, where she earned a career-best 104 Brisnet Speed Sating and career-best 107 Equibase speed figure. Brown is 18% wins with a 58% in-the-money clip with runners second off the layoff. Regular jockey Flavien Prat has the call. Top choice. |
| 5. Candied (3-1) | |
| Candied gets the occasional victory but is more often a bridesmaid because of erratic behavior in the stretch. Candied raced in traffic in her first start of the season in the Doubledogdare (G3). She was able to cut the corner but as usual was erratic in the stretch. Her antics cost her second place under Tarifa. Candied returned to beat Dazzling Move in the Allaire DuPont Distaff, ducking across paths and almost wiping out her rival. The Todd Pletcher trainee’s speed ratings improved in her last start, and she can handle the track and distance. Although she hasn’t raced on an off track, Candy Ride’s offspring hit the board 46% in Saratoga’s mud. Candied hasn’t put together back-to-back wins, but she’s a sweet exotics play. | Also from the Todd Pletcher barn, Candied enters off a victory in the Allaire DuPont Distaff. Laurie mentioned that Candied often exhibits erratic behavior in the stretch. Another tendency she has is not switching leads in the stretch. She’s done that in both starts this year. Sometimes she gets away with it, but it has cost her wins. On a more positive note, she’s 3: 1-2-0 at Saratoga and 4: 1-1-2 at the 1 1/8-mile distance. This will be Candied’s third start off the freshening she received after the Breeders’ Cup, and Pletcher is 14% with a 48% in-the-money clip with runners third off the layoff. Manny Franco replaces Irad Ortiz Jr., who will ride stablemate Leslie’s Rose. Exotics. |
| 6. Tarifa (9-2) | |
| Tarifa is a consistent road warrior and handles every surface. She likes to be on the lead or close to the pace and is irritated when her jockey has other ideas. A good example was her second-place finish in the Doubledogdare (G3) when she fought Florent Geroux for the first half-mile while under a stranglehold at the back of the pack. Had Tarifa been allowed to do her thing, she might have won. The Brad Cox trainee had a sharp 1:00 pre-race five-furlong move, and her speed ratings improved in her last starts. Exotics. | Trained by Brad Cox, Tarifa took advantage of Candied’s bad stretch behavior to edge her out for second in the Doubledogdare (G3) last out. A very consistent sort, Tarifa has been off the board only twice in her career. in her second career start and when she bombed in the Kentucky Oaks last year. She rebounded smartly and has gone 6: 1-3-2 since. Cox must not have been very happy with Geroux not letting Tarifa run once she had gathered herself at the start as he’s replaced Geroux with Luis Saez. Exotics. |
| 7. Randomized (9-2) | |
| Last year’s Ogden Phipps heroine, Randomized, is a classy need-the-lead type who will fight. She’s also a multiple Grade 1 winner who carries her speed. Also making her first start of the year in the La Troienne (G1), Randomized led them on a merry chase, yielding late to Raging Sea and missing second place by a head. Randomized hasn’t run over an off track, but Race Lens shows that Nyquist’s offspring love mud with a 20% win and 50% in-the-money finishes. Contender. | Also from the Chad Brown barn, Randomized returned from a 8 1/2-month hiatus to run third in the La Troienne (G1). The speedy mare attempted to take the field gate-to-wire but ran out of steam late to be edged by Raging Sea and Taxed, missing the win by 3/4 lengths. She earned a 94 Brisnet Speed Rating and can improve off that effort. Brown is 18% wins with a 58% in-the-money clip with runners second off the layoff. Randomized is 5: 3-0-1 at Saratoga and 4: 2-1-0 at the 1 1/8 mile distance. Joel Rosario has the return call. Contender. |
Final thoughts
Laurie: Most of the Ogden Phipps Stakes heroines gained ground and won or placed in their previous race, which was their first or second start off the layoff.
Four pacesetters and closers have won the Ogden Phipps, and the rest were pace pressers. Favorites predictably finish first or second, although four in the last 12 years were fourth or fifth.
Four fillies have won the Ogden Phipps Stakes in consecutive years. The last was Clairiere in 2022 and 2023. Joel Rosario teamed with Clairiere, and he also is Randomized’s jockey, so he seeks his fourth straight win in this event.
In last year’s Ogden Phipps, Randomized beat Raging Sea. This year, Raging Sea returned the favor in the La Troienne. Now, the stablemates pair up for the rubber match.
Randomized is outside speed, and there aren’t any other confirmed pacesetters unless Dazzling Move challenges or Tarifa is allowed to run. Randomized’s primary foe is her stablemate Raging Sea, who has tactical speed.
Tarifa runs on any track in any condition. She needs a jockey who will be along for the ride and not be a backseat driver. Candied should show further improvement in her third start off the layoff.
Although Raging Sea might be stronger, I’d like to see Randomized become the fourth consecutive Ogden Phipps winner for Rosario and predict a Chad Brown exacta.
Ashley: Laurie, I agree with your pace assessment. Randomized is likely to be the lone speed, even if Saez lets Tarifa run early. Tarifa has set the pace herself only once in her career. Same thing with Dazzling Move and Leslie’s Rose. Both of those fillies have set the pace only twice in their careers. So although it's unlikely, if one of those three challenges Randomized for the lead, it wouldn’t be overtly shocking. Fun fact: This trio is 5: 2-1-0 when setting the pace, with Tarifa and Leslie’s Rose splitting the wins.
Raging Sea is my top choice. She fired big-time in her first start off the layoff without leaving it all on the track. The problem, however, is that stablemate Randomized ran just as well off the layoff and didn’t have enough oomph to finish the job. Both ladies can improve off that effort, and Randomized might just be able to hold off her stablemate this time. So I’m with Laurie. It has to be a Brown exacta, but I’m taking Raging Sea on top.
Candied is her own worst enemy. She got away with her antics at Pimlico against a ho-hum field, but she has no room for error against this group. Unfortunately, if she hasn’t gotten the memo by now, it’s unlikely the light bulb will finally go off here. So I’ll throw her at the bottom of my selections and take Tarifa, who’s consistently an honest runner, over her.
Selections
| Laurie | Ashley |
| 7. Randomized (9-2) | 4. Raging Sea (5-2) |
| 4. Raging Sea (5-2) | 7. Randomized (9-2) |
| 6. Tarifa (9-2) | 6. Tarifa (9-2) |
| 5. Candied (3-1) | 5. Candied (3-1) |